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PoliGAF 2012 |OT4|: Your job is not to worry about 47% of these posts.

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E

eBay Huckster

Member
i am firmly convinced that john edwards was a figment of my imagination stemming from me thinking "man, what if a democrat had a legit sex scandal?" that somehow escaped like a holodeck malfunction.
 
S

Shadow Hog

Member
Loudninja said:
Obama To Appear On ‘The Daily Show’

http://livewire.talkingpointsmemo.com/entry/obama-to-appear-on-daily-show
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DragonSworne said:
Show's over. Obama has this election signed sealed delivered
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Only thing that'd probably be even better is appearing on The Colbert Report. Even if Stephen allegedly shut down the Bump.

Cyan said:
Who cares, it's hilarious. Stealing a story from Kurt frickin Cobain?
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He might've been inspired by the late musician, sure, but I'm not entirely convinced this is particularly heinous. He could very well have done what he said here (unless there's evidence to the contrary).

I dunno, it just seems like Lysol Wipe pedantry to me. There are more cogent things to attack him on, like perpetuating that whole "$716 from Medicare!" thing the Repubs are trumpeting, ignoring that they do basically the same thing in the Ryan plan (I think Biden called him out on this, at least), or claiming that it's never too early to attack the president when our embassy was attacked in Libya.

eBay Huckster said:
i am firmly convinced that john edwards was a figment of my imagination stemming from me thinking "man, what if a democrat had a legit sex scandal?" that somehow escaped like a holodeck malfunction.
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John Edwards is Moriarty?
 
P

PhoenixDark

Banned
Interesting take on the debate, and some poll talk

Biden seems to have given Ryan a thrashing, cornering him on budget policy and besting him on social issues. Ryan came off as more knowledgeable on foreign policy than I was expecting. He appeared to basically agree with the Administration. Since the expectation on the right was that a buffoon (Biden) was up against a brilliant young Turk (Ryan), the outcome might be deflating.

I will make one prediction: whatever happens in the polls next will be assigned to the VP debate as a cause. Earlier today I pointed out that in key swing states, Romney’s bounce subsided rapidly – indeed, may have started doing so days ago. However, it takes days for polls to hit the news. In short, I expect the media to have a case of post hoc, propter hoc. If and when things turn around, could the rooster (Biden) be about to get credit for the sunrise?
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http://election.princeton.edu/2012/10/11/a-prediction-on-biden-v-ryan/

If I'm wrong and Black Mamba is right, Obama should recover in the polls within the next couple days. Biden getting credit for it would be the obvious play by the media (just as they did with the "Clinton" bounce of the DNC). Obama already seems quite loyal to Biden after a rocky start, but if he wins I'd imagine they'll become even closer.
 
H

HylianTom

Banned
AniHawk said:
call me crazy, but virginia seems bluer than people are giving it credit for.
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I really think it's a tossup right now, and that organizational advantages will let Obama eek by with a win there. "Fake Virginia" is going to show-up to vote again this year.
 
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
quadriplegicjon said:
I'm so confused by this, there are polls saying nothing has changed in those states, and polls showing Romney dominating. :/
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The theory goes that Romney is gaining in the national vote because voters in states like California or Texas (which are safe in either column) are now paying attention and he's picking up votes there, while the swing states are seeing less impact because the campaigns have been running there for so long that voters are already familiar with both candidates.

He's tying it up nationally by picking up votes no one's fighting for.
 
S

speculawyer

Member
A parody of Vice President Joe Biden from the satirical news outlet The Onion has apparently morphed into an honest-to-goodness political reality. Some supporters of Biden have started a fundraising page to buy the country's second-highest-ranking political figure a vintage Trans Am sports car.

"In order to let Vice President Biden know just how much we appreciate him, while also making a very silly part of the internet come true (we are the internet after all); let's buy Uncle Joe a Trans Am like the one that is featured in the Onion article," writes the campaign's creator and Fark writer, "Hack Patooey," who worked with several of his colleagues and Fark readers on the idea, which they first posted here.

And while anyone can set up a farcical fundraising page, this humorous campaign has some very real support. It has received more than $1,000 in financial commitments from more than 80 donors.

Despite the tongue-in-cheek nature of the campaign, its founders list some sincere reasons for wanting to honor their political hero, citing Biden's support for gay marriage and his outspoken views on foreign policy.
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http://news.yahoo.com/blogs/sideshow/joe-biden-fans-raising-money-buy-vp-trans-192630243.html

Onion story:
250.jpg

http://www.theonion.com/articles/shirtless-biden-washes-trans-am-in-white-house-dri,2718/
 
E

eBay Huckster

Member
B

Black Mamba

Member
PhoenixDark said:
Interesting take on the debate, and some poll talk


http://election.princeton.edu/2012/10/11/a-prediction-on-biden-v-ryan/

If I'm wrong and Black Mamba is right, Obama should recover in the polls within the next couple days. Biden getting credit for it would be the obvious play by the media (just as they did with the "Clinton" bounce of the DNC). Obama already seems quite loyal to Biden after a rocky start, but if he wins I'd imagine they'll become even closer.
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I said the same thing as he did last night - that credit might go to Biden for what was a bounce fading.

Obama should see an uptick this weekend, but then a downtick Monday because this past Monday was a big uptick for him and it will be removed. Holding steady, however, would be quite good.


edit: PD - do you think Mitt's numbers are better from the last 4 days than the 2-3 days after the debate? If that's the case, Mitt should have been gaining more and more in the trackers, but they've regressed some. He should be up 4 in Gallup and Ras right now. But if it's not the case, he should lose some ground.

I'd be very confused if Gallup and RAND didn't move up for Obama the next couple days. It would seem to make no mathematical sense.
 
R

rSpooky

Member
LegendofJoe said:
I don't trust Florida or North Carolina to go for Obama and I'm worried about Colorado, Wisconsin, and New Hampshire. I think Obama may end up needing both Virginia and Ohio to win.

Really, the last few days have pushed me into doing something I should have done weeks ago - volunteer for the campaign. If there are any fellow Hampton Roads gaffers browsing or posting in this thread feel free to join me.
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I am in HR , but for many reasons cannot help you my friend. But good on you for volunteering.
 
O

Officerrob

Banned
SmokeMaxX said:
One thing it doesn't account for (I don't think) is people watching online. A lot of the younger people prefer watching things on their phones/computers. I watched the first Presidential debate on cspan.com and the VP debate (or tried to) on my phone.
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I watched the debate online while I had the football game on the big screen (I'm 34, so I barely squeak into their youngest demographic)
 
J

Jackson50

Member
Has anyone sourced last night's mysterious "AP poll?" Campaigns are always a high point for deceptive polls.
Forever said:
You need to disabuse yourself of this notion that his ground game will make up for being behind in the polls. If it's even roughly tied in Ohio, voter suppression will carry it for Romney.
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Actually, Obama's organizational advantage would probably tip the state if it were tied. They have approximately double the number of Romney's field offices in Ohio. Voter mobilization, especially personal contact/canvassing, has proven to be an effective tactic. It's an advantage that is being overlooked.
 
S

Stinkles

Clothed, sober, cooperative
Zen said:
What's reaching when he lied about his running time and even his percentage of bodyfat?
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Yeah his three hour marathon lie is actually way more outlandish and demonstrably false. I imagine he got the idea from Nirvana. Doesn't mean he lied, but we have no reason to ever expect him to be truthful.
 
B

Black Mamba

Member
In a sign the race is tightening again, Romney led Obama by 1 percentage point, 46 to 45 percent, among likely voters in the Reuters/Ipsos daily online tracking poll released on Friday. Romney led by 3 percentage points in Thursday's poll. Most poll respondents were questioned before the vice presidential debate.
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Indicating Thursday for Ipsos poll was good for Romney last week. Yesterday's polling was obviously better. I'm fairly certain it gave Obama the lead to move 2 points despite last Friday's numbers still in the sample set.

Should continue to trend up for Obama tomorrow.
 
E

eBay Huckster

Member
i may be posting less ITT in the next month or so, graduate/law school admission season is kicking into high gear and i need to get on fine-tuning my personal statements and getting my letters of rec written within the next couple weeks in addition to applications

(especially given that one school on my shortlist has a regular deadline of november 1)
 
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