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[SpeedySwaf]

Do any of these polls call cellphones in their samples?

Cause if most of this data is based around land lines...

I wouldn't go with this line of thinking. We did in 2010, and came out very disappointed.

 

[Loudninja]

PPP is showing Ohio tighter so far. Not unexpected. Not good.

It seems the state of the race nationally is actually tied and the swing states are leaning slightly Obama with momentum for Romney

I'll still wait Til the debate before worrying but that ppp post got my antennae up

No point in discussion incomplete polls!

Anyways Obama is ahead in early voting in Ohio.

 

[ISOM]

If Romney wins man will the dem base eat Obama alive, it's one thing to lose a close election doing your best but up against a better campaign (ala Kerry) but its another thing to have a massive lead and throw it all away.

Man you have been spazzing out the last few pages, can we move on already? Wait for the fucking second debate at least before you continue your meltdown.

 

[ryutaro's mama]

I wouldn't go with this line of thinking. We did in 2010, and came out very disappointed.

Presidential years bring out more of the electorate than mid-terms do.

I didn't vote in 2010 but I sure did in 2008 and the Presidential ones before.

 

[Kai Dracon]

Hannity is amazing right now. He's saying that Biden's laughing and interruption of Ryan in last night's debate is a symptom of some uncontrollable personality defect and bipolar-like illness.

Hey, he's got some degree of expertise in such matters.

After all, he's worked with O'Reilly for years.

 

[Half and half]

No point in discussion incomplete polls!

Anyways Obama is ahead in early voting in Ohio.

Indeed, perhaps the closeness is in those who haven't voted.

I'm not trying to create false hope, but I figure no point in going nuts yet.

 

[Trurl]

Do any of these polls call cellphones in their samples?

Cause if most of this data is based around land lines...

I live in Ohio and have answered two telephone polls. One was through a landline, the other my cellphone.

 

[pigeon]

I wouldn't go with this line of thinking. We did in 2010, and came out very disappointed.

Well, Silver and Cohn have been talking about a marked difference in cell phone versus non-cell polls this year. I'm too paralyzed by low morale to go look it up and remember which are which, but it might be instructive.

 

[Loudninja]

I live in Ohio and have answered two telephone polls. One was through a landline, the other my cellphone.

Hey does the polls get annoying?

 

[Averon]

How many votes Obama banks due to early voting may determine whether Ohio holds. If Obama has a crushing advantage in early voting, it'll take Romney to pull amazing numbers on election day to overcome it. If Obama and Romney are going into election day essentially tied with those who are yet to vote, I don't thing Romney will eke out a win. Thankfully voting suppression efforts in Ohio have been stalled so far.

 

[Cheebo]

No point in discussion incomplete polls!

Anyways Obama is ahead in early voting in Ohio.

Find one instance where PPP's hint didn't match up to their poll release the next day. They always do this. Obama's firewall state was Ohio, it is looking like a virtual tie. That isn't good, period. You can't smile and spin that.

And polls don't factor out those who already voted. Those who already voted and intend to vote are both included together in the poll results from states.

The so called "chicken littles" are quickly beginning to outnumber those who think things are going great. And for good reason.

 

[Aaron Strife]

Mm. I might have to retire from poligaf for a couple days. I'll probably be back for the debate.

 

[codhand]

If Romney wins man will the dem base eat Obama alive, it's one thing to lose a close election doing your best but up against a better campaign (ala Kerry) but its another thing to have a massive lead and throw it all away.

No, I'll spite the "undecideds", and smdh at the wasted opportunity.

 

[metalslimer]

If Romney wins man will the dem base eat Obama alive, it's one thing to lose a close election doing your best but up against a better campaign (ala Kerry) but its another thing to have a massive lead and throw it all away.

Give it a rest man the election isn't for another 3 and half weeks

 

[ezekial45]

If Romney wins man will the dem base eat Obama alive, it's one thing to lose a close election doing your best but up against a better campaign (ala Kerry) but its another thing to have a massive lead and throw it all away.

That massive lead pre-debate was in no way sustainable. Even if Obama won, the polls would've tightened. That was the country's first time seeing Obama and Romney square off, and people got an eye for the opposite. That's just how it works.

Keeping an 80% win chance (according to 538) during the final weeks wasn't going to happen.

 

[codhand]

The so called "chicken littles" are quickly beginning to outnumber those who think things are going great. And for good reason.

Well, we certainly know where you stand.

 

[Black Mamba]

Do any of these polls call cellphones in their samples?

Cause if most of this data is based around land lines...

Most do but not all

Ras does not iirc

 

[Loudninja]

Early Voting Rising

More than 800,000 people have already voted in the 2012 general election. A clearer picture of the potential 2012 electorate is emerging in some states where election officials are providing information on who has voted.

Early voting -- both mail and in-person -- is on pace to exceed 2008 levels, when about 30 percent of all votes nationally were cast prior to Election Day. The 2008 levels may be exceeded even further in states such as Iowa and Ohio, where early voting has been brisk. As a corollary, with no collapse in early voting, there is no indication so far that overall turnout, both early and Election Day, will be substantially lower than 2008.

In two states where party registration of early voters is available -- Maine and North Carolina -- slightly more registered Democrats have requested ballots as of a comparable date in 2008. Conversely, fewer registered Republicans have requested ballots. In Iowa, both registered Democrats and Republicans are voting above their 2008 levels, with a greater increase among Democrats.

Ohio presents a more complex picture. Early voting is up quite a bit over the 2008 level. This is likely because election officials sent absentee ballot applications to every registered voter. Ohio does not have party registration, so county-level data provides a better picture of the partisan implications. While levels are somewhat higher in rural counties, they are up in urban counties, too.

Iowa sticks out as a sore thumb in early voting. Already, more than 200,000 people have voted in Iowa, a much larger share of the potential 2012 electorate than any other state.

The number of registered Democrats who have voted is about twice that of registered Republicans, 53 percent to 28 percent, with the remainder unaffiliated

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/michael-p-mcdonald/early-voting-rising_b_1962843.html

 

[Godslay]

Early Voting Rising

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/michael-p-mcdonald/early-voting-rising_b_1962843.html

That's a very good sign.

 

[Cheebo]

Well, we certainly know where you stand.

As where most of the base stands if you go look around and the major places dems post about politics (Democratic Underground, DailyKos, 538 comments, etc). The base is mostly still in all out panic mode and will likely remain so until polls stop sliding towards Romneys direction.

 

[ryutaro's mama]

The so called "chicken littles" are quickly beginning to outnumber those who think things are going great. And for good reason.

At this moment, on October 12th, 2012, what good does chicken littling do?

Like seriously.

The fucking election won't be won or lost tonight--it's Friday. Go take a drive or something.

I guarantee when you get back, Obama will still be the President.

 

[Bam Bam Baklava]

As where most of the base stands if you go look around and the major places dems post about politics (Democratic Underground, DailyKos, 538 comments, etc). The base is mostly still in all out panic mode and will likely remain so until polls stop sliding towards Romneys direction.

So Obama's gonna lose now what?

 

[AniHawk]

i can't believe there's such a thing as fact-checkers.

isn't that the job the fucking media at large should be doing?

it's fucking surreal that one bad performance from the president totally negates the other guy saying he doesn't give a fuck about half the country and all the other stupid stuff he is actually for.

 

[Hitokage]

It's time to bring this back:

 

[Godslay]

As where most of the base stands if you go look around and the major places dems post about politics (Democratic Underground, DailyKos, 538 comments, etc). The base is mostly still in all out panic mode and will likely remain so until polls stop sliding towards Romneys direction.

That's a big blanket to cast. The one good thing that can come out of this 'panic' that you speak of, is increased voter turnout. If the 'base' is afraid that Romney will win, then they will make sure to vote rather than assume an easy win and potentially lessen the motivation to vote. This may be a blessing in disguise.

 

[Loudninja]

It's time to bring this back:

gif

Agreed.

 

[gkryhewy]

As where most of the base stands if you go look around and the major places dems post about politics (Democratic Underground, DailyKos, 538 comments, etc). The base is mostly still in all out panic mode and will likely remain so until polls stop sliding towards Romneys direction.

You are making this thread unreadable in a way Kosmo never did. Nice work.

 

[ezekial45]

At the very least, I hope all this panicking can be turned into positive motivation for people to get out and vote.

 

[ISOM]

Early Voting Rising



http://www.huffingtonpost.com/michael-p-mcdonald/early-voting-rising_b_1962843.html

I think losing the debate was an advantage in some ways. It worried democrats to actually come out and vote and assure an obama victory I believe. As opposed to if obama had blown out romney. Very positive signs.

 

[speculawyer]

Damn crazy panic thread.

 

[ryutaro's mama]

That's a big blanket to cast. The one good thing that can come out of this 'panic' that you speak of, is increased voter turnout. If the 'base' is afraid that Romney will win, then they will make sure to vote rather than assume an easy win and potentially lessen the motivation to vote. This may be a blessing in disguise.

Yep.

Fear is a great motivator.

Listen to Obama, ffs: "Don't boo, vote."

The end.

 

[Dr. Pangloss]

David Plouffe is right, bunch of bed wetters. Maybe Cheebs and Diablos deserve new tags.

 

[Loudninja]

Damn crazy panic thread.

I really cant wait until this ends.

 

[codhand]

I think losing the debate was an advantage in some ways.

Nope.

Damn crazy panic thread.

Yup.

You are making this thread unreadable in a way Kosmo never did. Nice work.

Got that right.

 

[kirblar]

Romney's had issues coalescing the GOP base around him for a long time. The debate performance did that for him, and basically got him the "soft" GOP support he hasn't had all this time.

But the problem is still that Romney's fighting 9 months of campaigning in swing states where most people already made up their minds. Ohio still looks very, very bad for him, and it's virtually impossible for him to win without it.

 

[Cheebo]

Romney's had issues coalescing the GOP base around him for a long time. The debate performance did that for him, and basically got him the "soft" GOP support he hasn't had all this time.

But the problem is still that Romney's fighting 9 months of campaigning in swing states where most people already made up their minds. Ohio still looks very, very bad for him, and it's virtually impossible for him to win without it.

How does it look very, very, bad for him when most recent polling has had Obama's lead shrink to a statistical tie and PPP is claiming they are seeing a virtual tie so far in their polling>

 

[Black Mamba]

I really cant wait until this ends.

What if....it never ends.


Like I said, the 2nd debate is important, now. What the polls say today and tomorrow will largely be irrelevant. Even if it shifts back towards Obama (at least 7 day trackers) a bit it won't matter.

The 1st debate made this election close. That makes the 2nd debate important, especially given the context of the 1st one. Obama can lose the election with a repeat performance. He may be also able to close the deal.

 

[Byakuya769]

Don't boohoo. Vote.

 

[codhand]

Ohio still looks very, very bad for him, and it's virtually impossible for him to win without it.

We shall see tomorrow, I'm sadly optimistic for a PPP +2 Ohio, which will include the early voting advantage.

 

[markatisu]

Mm. I might have to retire from poligaf for a couple days. I'll probably be back for the debate.

Thats what I am going to do, oh and the person who said we don't know what its like to lose...you can kiss my ass I have been voting since before 2000. I know very well how it feels to have elections stolen and to lose, 2008 and now does not feel anything like that.

 

[Bam Bam Baklava]

Saw the PPP tweet about the VP debate being even. Seems kind of crazy to me, could be that the electorate is more likely to find the challengers positively this election.

In 2008 I don't think Obama won all 3 debates decisively but the reaction polls said differently. Considering the circumstances surrounding the election that year maybe there wasn't much McCain could have done to win those debates.

 

[kirblar]

How does it look very, very, bad for him when most recent polling has had Obama's lead shrink to a statistical tie and PPP is claiming they are seeing a virtual tie so far in their polling>

I was there with Kerry once. (But its a statistical tie!) Learned my lesson. Is the race closer there? Absolutely. Is Romney ahead? I don't believe so.

 

[Loudninja]

We shall see tomorrow, I'm sadly optimistic for a PPP +2 Ohio, which will include the early voting advantage.

We have other Ohio polls as well.

 

[Godslay]

We shall see tomorrow, I'm sadly optimistic for a PPP +2 Ohio, which will include the early voting advantage.

So what if it is. A +2 can change either way in 3 1/2 weeks. We are basically at the end of the first quarter in a 4 quarter game. If it is a blowout at the end of the first quarter you have something to worry about, but reality tells us that it's not even close to a blow out.

 

[Oblivion]

i can't believe there's such a thing as fact-checkers.

isn't that the job the fucking media at large should be doing?

it's fucking surreal that one bad performance from the president totally negates the other guy saying he doesn't give a fuck about half the country and all the other stupid stuff he is actually for.

Somewhat relevant:

But it's the sheer tomfoolery that gets me. Mr Romney knows his numbers don't work, but he keeps insisting with bald-faced insouciance that they do, and using the most transparent used-car-salesman-style obfuscation to evade the question. He pulled exactly the same stunt during his debate with Barack Obama last week. Mr Obama charged that Mr Romney planned tax cuts of $5 trillion, and that his proposed limits on deductions could never make up for them. Mr Romney said the $5 trillion figure was wrong because it didn't include the limits on deductions. This kind of sophomoric mathematical double-talk wouldn't have fooled investors in Mr Romney's Bain Capital funds for a second. It does seem to be fooling a fair number of journalists and voters, though.

http://www.economist.com/blogs/democracyinamerica/2012/10/mitt-romney-taxes

 

[Trurl]

David Plouffe is right, bunch of bed wetters. Maybe Cheebs and Diablos deserve new tags.

Holy shit! Cheebo is Cheebs?

 

[Black Mamba]

PPP did not say it's tied. They said today it looked tight. To them, that could be Obama +2.

Within the margin of error does not mean "statistically tied." That's just media narrative BS. It would still mean a 3:1 odds on Obama.

 

[codhand]

We have other Ohio polls as well.

Who else?

PPP did not say it's tied. They said today it looked tight. To them, that could be Obama +2.

Within the margin of error does not mean "statistically tied." That's just media narrative BS. It would still mean a 3:1 odds on Obama.

I think if it was plus +2 from +4 and plus +7 the weeks prior to that, then it's safe to say PPP's tease indicates a tie, or less than a +2 O advantage. Would they really say it's tight and have it be +3 or +5?

 

[Averon]

Early Voting Rising



http://www.huffingtonpost.com/michael-p-mcdonald/early-voting-rising_b_1962843.html

This is why I'm not freaking out. Early voting + Obama's ground game means Romney will have to perform significantly better than the polls are currently showing for him to overcomes those two Obama advantages.

 

[Loudninja]

Who else?



I think if it was plus +2 from +4 and plus +7 the weeks prior to that, than it's safe to say PPP's tease indicates a tie, or less than a +2 O advantage.

Its a incomplete poll.

Ohio: Obama 51%, Romney 45% (NBC/WSJ/Marist)

CNN had him up by 4 as well.

This polls are 2 days old.