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PoliGAF 2012 |OT4|: Your job is not to worry about 47% of these posts.
- Thread starter Amir0x
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ffs
I really like this article:
Why the President Is Still a Heavy Favorite on the Prediction Markets
Made some snips here and there, but bolded the main points that I personally liked.
Why the President Is Still a Heavy Favorite on the Prediction Markets
Made some snips here and there, but bolded the main points that I personally liked.
if tomorrow polls come out and, say, gallup is pointed even further downward (worse approval rating, worse rv, worse lv), i'm going to prepare for an obama loss.
i know i'm not joseph-gordon levitt, but i sorta see the future, where the numbers worsen through the weekend, lead to a debate that does nothing to shift the narrative or substantially improve numbers for obama, and a final debate that continues the trend, leading to a loss nationally and across swing states.
i see romney laying low and letting this play out, aside from the debates, where he'll give it his all.
the only counterpoint to this all is that the senate races still pretty much haven't wavered for the democrats, so people are mostly not-enthused for obama in particular. it might mean that these people could be persuaded to come back. at this point, since it doesn't appear this was a 'bump', i think it means romney would have to fuck up again, or obama would have to land a decisive knockout blow somehow.
i know i'm not joseph-gordon levitt, but i sorta see the future, where the numbers worsen through the weekend, lead to a debate that does nothing to shift the narrative or substantially improve numbers for obama, and a final debate that continues the trend, leading to a loss nationally and across swing states.
i see romney laying low and letting this play out, aside from the debates, where he'll give it his all.
the only counterpoint to this all is that the senate races still pretty much haven't wavered for the democrats, so people are mostly not-enthused for obama in particular. it might mean that these people could be persuaded to come back. at this point, since it doesn't appear this was a 'bump', i think it means romney would have to fuck up again, or obama would have to land a decisive knockout blow somehow.
This is all fine and dandy, but you can't fake the ground game.
SpeedySwaf
Member
I think I'll take a break from the Poli thread as well, maybe give it a week, and see where we stand after that. I'm disappointed in the numbers, but I still fully intend to do my part and vote in November. Short of Obama eating a baby, nothing will change that.
Black Mamba
Member
Romney dropped to 39% in Silver's model. REVERSAL!!!!
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytime...-power/?partner=rss&emc=rss&smid=tw-thecaucus
Not that it's a positive article.
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytime...-power/?partner=rss&emc=rss&smid=tw-thecaucus
Not that it's a positive article.
metalslimer
Member
This thread is amazing. I can't keep track of who's actually freaking out having meltdowns or joking.
Wow, she really jumped off the deep end didn't she? I WISH Obama was FDR....I WISH...
just watch me
seriously though, i hope it's as good as people are saying, because they really fucking need it in ohio, virginia, florida, and colorado.
i remember reading a while ago that an overwhelming amount of people voted for mccain in one of the swing states on election day, and that obama was basically saved by early voting. if people are less enthusiastic about obama now than they were 4 years ago, things are going to get hairy, at best.
in 2008, it was obama in
ohio by 250k (5.6m votes)
florida by 240k (8.3m votes)
virginia by 230k (3.7m votes)
colorado by 210k (2.3m votes)
he has to really do his best to outnumber them early this time. i don't know if it's possible.
speculawyer
Member
People gotta chill. You do realize that Obama can lose Florida, Colorado, and Virginia and still win easily.
Everyone was freaking out until Biden started spittin' dat hot fiyah.
what i'm about to say is one of the dumbest things ever, but this actually makes me feel a little better.
i was hoping the path would be possible without ohio, florida, virginia, and colorado. colorado's really let me down.
somewhat nervous about wisconsin and nevada, but i think they're like iowa and north carolina where their results are already a foregone conclusion.
man i really hope it stops the bleeding. tomorrow's gallup needs to not be more negative than it was today. if tomorrow's gallup is worse, then it means romney's new lead is sticking, and people actually do plan on voting for the guy.
The back of his neck looks like an old Gumby.
The have a natural advantage in that Obama didn't have to deal with getting his parties nomination. He was far ahead of Romney in all the swing states in establishing offices. It's a very real advantage. Only time will tell if it's effective.
Obama's also projected to win a historic landslide in the 7-Election.
I've seen dumber, but not a whole lot that wasn't racist or sexist.
less so
Man if I didn't have to do shit that day this is totally what I'd do...
Ground game helps but at best adds about 1% at most based on Silvers analysis post-2008. If Obama is down 2-3% ground game advantages won't save him.
http://store.mittromney.com/collections/believe-in-america/believe-t-shirt-1.html
It's as if Romney is taunting GAF.
It's as if Romney is taunting GAF.
I like that 3 of the 4 colors you can get are blue, and that the color choice changes the country's color, too. Kind of sends a different message, eh?
littleworm
Member
I think Obama supporters here, and especially the ones who are worried, really need to take a step back for a bit. It seems were all feeding of each others negativity, and we really don't need to. Sure were having a rough patch, but we can easily win it all back, this week. But also consider volunteering, one of the advantages Obama has is the better ground team, and the democrats need to use that to their full advantage. So if your worried, go out and do all you can to make sure you win, now I'm not saying volunteer time you dont have or donate money you really need, but if have a little extra, do what you can. It'll go a long ways further than panicking at poll results and making each other miserable.
Early voting has actually become even more popular since 2008 and the numbers reflect that. All indications say that Obama has a huge advantage in early voting, particularly in Ohio and Iowa, and states are early voting at a higher rate than they where in 2008. Romney will really have to greatly out perform the current polling in Ohio and Iowa for him to win either it if early voting in both states continues are they are going. Going into election splitting the remaining voters just won't do it for Romney to overcome Obama's advantage in early voting and ground operations. If going into election day Romney is polling 2-3 percent better than Obama, than, yeah, it's grim. But if it continues to be something like 50-48, 49-47, 48-47 and so on, I feel pretty good that Obama's bank of early votes will pull it off.
Granted, 3 of the 4 colors available are blue.
I would campaign, but phone banking, canvasing, or bothering strangers in unsolicited ways really makes me uncomfortable and as a result I'm horrible at it. I respect its importance and am glad that people do it, but I can't shake the feeling that I'm being rude when I do it.
Instead I've decided that I'm going to come out as an Obama supporter at work and talk to people around me about the election generally. Until recently it's a subject that I would avoid out of politeness, but this idea that one should be silent about his or her political beliefs is a mistake.
Instead I've decided that I'm going to come out as an Obama supporter at work and talk to people around me about the election generally. Until recently it's a subject that I would avoid out of politeness, but this idea that one should be silent about his or her political beliefs is a mistake.
He's trying to trick liberals into donating to his campaign.
That's not a drop, that's his highest rating yet.
You have to seriously ask yourself though; Why exactly would Obama lose the election?
The economy is rebounding (especially in Ohio and Virginia). The wars are winding down. U.S. auto industry is doing fantastic. The stock market is back up. Osama Bin Ladin is dead. Home sales are rebounding. Americans are also more respected on a global level. There hasn't been a terrorist attack on U.S. soil since he took office.
I'm just not seeing why Obama should lose this. People say he can't run on his record, but that is absolute nonsense. His record is pretty damn good all things considered.
In the current media atmosphere, the best Obama can hope for is a tie. Conservative media won't let him have a win, and mainstream media wants the horse race to continue.
Dont worry Silver's model is like Sex Panther by Odeon right now, 60% of the time it works every time.
Silver says he's on the verge of classifying the race as a tossup.
People actually watch these things and have opinions about them other than just what the media tells them to think.
Angry Fork
Member
Americans are stupid.
Somehow this wouldn't surprise me. He should have gotten Key and Peele to do it, anger translator and all.
Sirpopopop
Member
It's going to be bad then.
While I do believe Obama will win (I'm not in a location where there are swing voters. I'm in a part of a country where Republicans can say they will kill 200 million people, and they will still win the election), no one ever lost money betting on the stupidity of the American people.
I believe Biden won the last debate, but it hasn't stopped the bleeding.
Seriously, it took the demise of the economy to vote in a Democratic president. What does that tell you about the proclivity of the public to vote Democrat?
No better way of making your coworkers hate you than talking politics at work! Especially if you're a bit smug about it, acting like a know-it-all!
Officerrob
Banned
Question to all of those whining on here like little kids: Where do you live? If you live in or near a swing state (which in now the majority of the United States), shut the fuck up and volunteer. If you have the time to bitch on here, get off your lazy ass and do something about it! Have you people seriously never faced any adversity?
PublicPolicyPolling Twitter said:
Ouch.
PublicPolicyPolling Twitter said:
Sorry guys, no game-changer here.
One of the problems as I see it is that all of Obama's Bain / tax attacks seem so passé now. They really blew their load early. These days whenever I see an article or an ad about how Mitt killed babies at Bain and has offshore accounts in the Caymans I tune out. I imagine the electorate is pretty becoming more and more immune to it all too.
In the past I have deliberately steered conversations away from politics. That really isn't necessary. I'm not about to start accosting people and yelling at them about what a horrible person Romney is.
Eh, even in the post-convention polling, PPP only had Obama +5 I think. +2 or +3 is ok.
To be fair, VP debates never matter in the long run. At best, they are used to pump up the base, which Biden succeeded in doing. As far as I'm concerned, Biden did his job perfectly. Obama need to do his on Tuesday night.
edit: Looking at the map, Obama needs to hold WI and take either VA or OH and he won. I don't think Iowa or Nevada is flipping. When WI, OH, and VA are called, we'll know whether we have Pres, Obama or Pres. Romney.
ryutaro's mama
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