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[Al-ibn Kermit]

One thing it doesn't account for (I don't think) is people watching online. A lot of the younger people prefer watching things on their phones/computers. I watched the first Presidential debate on cspan.com and the VP debate (or tried to) on my phone.

Especially as a lot of young people don't even have cable/antennas. It's easier to just watch/listen to it on a phone or computer than try and stream on XBL. I was on campus so I just listened to it on NPR through my phone, I really regret not seeing Biden's expressions in real-time.

 

[ezekial45]

This is why I'm not freaking out. Early voting + Obama's ground game means Romney will have to perform significantly better than the polls are currently showing for him to overcomes those two Obama advantages.

Yes, Obama gained serious ground after the convention. $180 million in donations and some serious groundswell in the battleground states. He's got more than double the campaign offices in Ohio than Romney does.

Those weeks of him on way ahead are going to pay off.

 

[ryutaro's mama]

What if....it never ends.


Like I said, the 2nd debate is important, now. What the polls say today and tomorrow will largely be irrelevant. Even if it shifts back towards Obama (at least 7 day trackers) a bit it won't matter.

The 1st debate made this election close. That makes the 2nd debate important, especially given the context of the 1st one. Obama can lose the election with a repeat performance. He may be also able to close the deal.

A tie won't close the deal and believe me, just like last night, the Republicans will Romney as the winner or tie of the next 2 debates, regardless of what actually happened.

Obama would have to completely shutdown Romney in a clear, non-spinnable way and I don't see that happening.

 

[kirblar]

PPP did not say it's tied. They said today it looked tight. To them, that could be Obama +2.

Within the margin of error does not mean "statistically tied." That's just media narrative BS. It would still mean a 3:1 odds on Obama.

I'm so glad I don't even listen to anything on TV anymore. The media will always want to make things appear to be up in the air to get more eyeballs.

If it's a blowout, people start leaving in the 3rd quarter.

Yes, Obama gained serious ground after the convention. $180 million in donations and some serious groundswell in the battleground states. He's got more than double the campaign offices in Ohio than Romney does.

Those weeks of him on way ahead are going to pay off.

The massive ground game disparity is one of those things that is huge but underreported (and why I'm not really worried re: Ohio, even though it's closer than I'd like it to be.)

 

[Black Mamba]

Who else?



I think if it was plus +2 from +4 and plus +7 the weeks prior to that, than it's safe to say PPP's tease indicates a tie, or less than a +2 O advantage.

You cannot read that way. Just because it's tightened doesn't mean you assume it continues to do so. If that was the case, you would already be seeing the tie right now.

It's not like a snowball. It's just as likely to keep getting worse at is it to get better. Or stop.

We simply don't know.

A tie won't close the deal and believe me, just like last night, the Republicans will Romney as the winner or tie of the next 2 debates, regardless of what actually happened.

Obama would have to completely shutdown Romney in a clear, non-spinnable way and I don't see that happening.

Obama won't be able to win the same way Romney did. But he can still do well enough to reverse some of Romney's bounce and in this case it would seal the deal. If Obama comes out of the 2nd debate up 2% and winning most the swing states, I think it's done.

 

[Cloudy]

I'm trying not to panic till Obama is under 50% on the betting sites lol

 

[Giant Panda]

This early voting info is very reasuring, but I still have one worry: If Obama is getting more of his supporters to vote now over Republicans, won't that mean more Republicans will vote on actual election day? Or will getting people to vote early really get that many more people to vote than would have voted otherwise?

 

[Averon]

Who else?

NBC's recent one which had Obama 51, Romney 47, with Obama having ~2-1 advantage in early voting. For those who have yet to vote, it was Obama 48, Romney 46.

 

[Half and half]

Amazing. You'd think that a shooting at a campaign HQ would be important. But the major news sites I checked are headling the GOP going in on Libya.

 

[Oblivion]

This should probably sorta calm some of you (and me) down, from that hack, Greg Sargent:

Geoff Garin, the pollster for the Obama-allied Priorities USA, tells me that his polling shows that views of Romney are more fixed in the battlegrounds than nationally. “In the swing states, voters are much more apt and able to quote back the main case against Romney,” he tells me.

Garin adds that his polling has tested voter reaction to various arguments against Romney, such as the idea that his economic policies would favor the wealthy or burden the middle class. He says voter agreement with those suggestions is “higher where the advertising has occurred,” and adds: “All the swing state advertising has had a measurable and lasting impact.”

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs...abcf480-13cd-11e2-be82-c3411b7680a9_blog.html

 

[Cloudy]

http://pbs.twimg.com/media/A5C9enACQAA-7dZ.jpg

From Romney's rally today. Stay classy, GOPers

 

[Brinbe]

Oh God, this thread...

 

[codhand]

Oh God, this thread...

This thread is awesome quiet you!

 

[Loudninja]

This should probably sorta calm some of you (and me) down, from that hack, Greg Sargent:



http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs...abcf480-13cd-11e2-be82-c3411b7680a9_blog.html

Most of us already know this

 

[pigeon]

Don't put it all on the debates. The correct way to think of what just happened is as a bad debate coupled with an inevitable correction. A good chunk of the losses, as noted, were voters that were always going to vote for Romney finally polling well. Couple that with the losses from the lousy debate and the dampened enthusiasm, it looks like a huge swing. But really it's just a return to the mean, and maybe a little past that. Momentum is a lie.

Remember, even with every swing state 50/50, Obama is pretty favored to win.

 

[Measley]

Seven levels of bullshit right here. You can read the transcripts and see the words, but the problem was a listless Obama speaking them. He wasn't engaged, his words didn't connect, he didn't persuade and he had zero fight to him.

So now the argument is that Obama didn't point out the bullshit strongly enough? He debunked the tax lie about 5 times, and he took Romney to the woodshed in regards to Obamacare and Medicare.

Seven levels of bullshit? Seriously?

Expecting people to just fall in line behind that showing is insane. Obama let his own base down - that's what happened. I'm sure he's integrated the lessons from that debate, and certainly won't repeat them - but its a giant heap of bullshit to lay any blame upon his supporters.

Except Obama didn't let his base down. He stood up there and presented the facts while following the debate rules. Romney actually let his base down by pulling a complete 180 and changing his entire platform around in the span of a week. THAT is letting down your base. Guess what? Republicans STILL widely support Romney even though he all but betrayed them by moving to the middle. THAT is falling in line.

I don't want liberals and Dems to do that. What I do want them to do is grow some fucking balls and man up against this conservative/corporate onslaught that is trying to tell us what and how to think. Their power over reality is reaching frightening levels.

 

[ezekial45]

You guys are freaking out like Walter White did in the Crawl Space episode.

 

[Kinvara]

http://pbs.twimg.com/media/A5C9enACQAA-7dZ.jpg

From Romney's rally today. Stay classy, GOPers

Ugh. Absolutely disgusting.

 

[Al-ibn Kermit]

[G]http://i.imgur.com/YOcJi.png[/IMG]

MG]http://i.imgur.com/HaAqI.png[/IMG]
This was back in April. By the end of September, Romney had only gotten his offices to 36 in Ohio.

And don't give me this I'm older than you BS. I have been voting since I was 18 in 2003. I wish besada would come in here and school you about the Reagan years. He voted when the Democratic candidate lost in landslides, not some on the margin bullshit like Gore and Kerry.

I'm pretty sure cheebo was too young to vote in 2004 too.

 

[Forever]

You guys are freaking out like Walter White did in the Crawl Space episode.

That will happen when the polls are against you.

 

[ezekial45]

That will happen when the polls are against you.

If it's a week out from the GE and the polls are all against Obama, then I will gladly join them.

 

[Black Mamba]

Don't put it all on the debates. The correct way to think of what just happened is as a bad debate coupled with an inevitable correction. A good chunk of the losses, as noted, were voters that were always going to vote for Romney finally polling well. Couple that with the losses from the lousy debate and the dampened enthusiasm, it looks like a huge swing. But really it's just a return to the mean, and maybe a little past that. Momentum is a lie.

Remember, even with every swing state 50/50, Obama is pretty favored to win.

Even I think you're rationalizing a bit too much, here.

I agree with some correction and some base coming home earlier, but if Obama has a repeat, Romney is President. Too many undecideds are going to break for Romney.

This race should be Obama by 2-2.5% nationally. Anything less than that is not good.

 

[SmokeMaxX]

Ugh Intrade has 1000 shares at $6 a pop. I'm about to throw up.

 

[Cheebo]

I'm pretty sure cheebo was too young to vote in 2004 too.

Except I voted in 2004

 

[Hitokage]

You guys are freaking out like Walter White did in the Crawl Space episode.

 

[Al-ibn Kermit]

Ugh Intrade has 1000 shares at $6 a pop. I'm about to throw up.

Actually there are 2681 shares, apparently. Does this mean people expect the price to drop further?

 

[Measley]

Even I think you're rationalizing a bit too much, here.

I agree with some correction and some base coming home earlier, but if Obama has a repeat, Romney is President. Too many undecideds are going to break for Romney.

This race should be Obama by 2-2.5% nationally. Anything less than that is not good.

Frankly, I don't believe that a debate can determine an election. It never has in the past, and the fundamentals leading to Obama's re-election hasn't changed, but actually gotten better since the convention.

 

[Forever]

Frankly, I don't believe that a debate can determine an election.

Kennedy vs. Nixon

 

[Measley]

Kennedy vs. Nixon

I stand corrected. What's interesting to note about that is Nixon is believed to have won the other two debates, but tied the last one.

But Obama is no Nixon, and Romney is no Kennedy.

 

[smurfx]

i still think obama will win but dammit if the chicken littles in this thread don't make me nervous. i want to stop reading this thread but i can't.

 

[pigeon]

Even I think you're rationalizing a bit too much, here.

I agree with some correction and some base coming home earlier, but if Obama has a repeat, Romney is President. Too many undecideds are going to break for Romney.

This race should be Obama by 2-2.5% nationally. Anything less than that is not good.

I'm not saying that we're sitting pretty, I'm just reminding people that Obama still has structural advantages. We're a little lower than pre-convention level, and that's not awesome, but pre-convention level was a pretty good position to be in.

 

[jbug617]

Kennedy vs. Nixon

Kennedy vs Nixon was the first time a debate was televised. I'm sure it was one of the reasons why Kennedy won.

 

[ryutaro's mama]

I stand corrected. What's interesting to note about that is Nixon is believed to have won the other two debates, but tied the last one.

But Obama is no Nixon, and Romney is no Kennedy.

What about Ryan?

Is he Kennedy?

 

[Cloudy]

I understand decimal odds but can anyone explain the monetary numbers?

 

[bananas]

The fucking wimps in this thread need to grow a fucking pair.

"I'm going to throw up"?

Jesus fucking Christ. If we do lose this, let's at least lose it with some goddamn dignity.

 

[Black Mamba]

IIRC, Kennedy was barely down to Nixon. And that debate was much earlier in the election season.

And Nixon looked sick.


That said, we've never had a media narrative destroy an incumbent or anyone for the presidential election like this time. Kind of a new wrinkle.

I'm not saying that we're sitting pretty, I'm just reminding people that Obama still has structural advantages. We're a little lower than pre-convention level, and that's not awesome, but pre-convention level was a pretty good position to be in.

I'm hoping that by Tuesday it's more like pre-convention. But if it's lower than that and Obama stinks again, ehh..

This is a different world with the internet and media. It's fallacy to directly think because it happened one way in the past it won't now.


Look, I came into the 1st debate thinking it was over. But I also never assumed it was possible to see what we saw as a result, either. We're in uncharted territory.


Hell, the fact that Romney-Ryan hasn't been run out of town with their insane arguments and policy proposals and lying should be enough to give one cause for concern to begin with. American politics is fucked up.

 

[kirblar]

Hell, the fact that Romney-Ryan hasn't been run out of town with their insane arguments and policy proposals and lying should be enough to give one cause for concern to begin with. American politics is fucked up.

Welcome to the way it's always been.

 

[Cloudy]

Even I think you're rationalizing a bit too much, here.

I agree with some correction and some base coming home earlier, but if Obama has a repeat, Romney is President. Too many undecideds are going to break for Romney.

This race should be Obama by 2-2.5% nationally. Anything less than that is not good.

I dunno. I think Obama was up so much cos Romney kept making mistakes. It was always going to tighten. The polls show most people had their minds made up before the debate.

 

[ryutaro's mama]

I think the general sentiment (for undecided voters anyway) coming outta that first debate was, "I was kinda iffy on Obama but this Romney guy seems to agree with a lot so, maybe he's not a bad choice after all?"

 

[Downhome]

Even I am shocked that the map on 270 to Win is now almost totally even. Wasn't it a gap of like 25 to 50 points not too long ago? This election is crazy. No matter who wins though, I love when they are close like this. It at least makes the months leading up to election day more interesting day to day.

 

[SmokeMaxX]

The fucking wimps in this thread need to grow a fucking pair.

"I'm going to throw up"?

Jesus fucking Christ. If we do lose this, let's at least lose it with some goddamn dignity.

Lose? If you're talking about my post, I lost like $50 because I didn't wait for Obama's stock to drop further before I bought in. Obama's got it in the bag.

People keep misunderstanding my Intrade posts. My only goal is to buy low so I can maximize profit. If I would've waited till now to buy Obama stocks, I would've made at least $40 more dollars than I will now.

 

[kirblar]

Even I am shocked that the map on 270 to Win is now almost totally even. Wasn't it a gap of like 25 to 50 points not too long ago? This election is crazy. No matter who wins though, I love when they are close like this. It at least makes the months leading up to election day more interesting day to day.

Many of the states they have as "toss ups" are not actually toss ups.

Again, you don't get hits from a blowout. (not saying this is one) It's in their interest to make things look closer than they are.

 

[PhoenixDark]

It's worth noting that if not for a few boxes of "new" votes in Chicago and Texas, Kennedy would likely have lost. The debate meme oversells its impact; that was a close election.

 

[ryutaro's mama]

It's worth noting that if not for a few boxes of "new" votes in Chicago and Texas, Kennedy would likely have lost. The debate meme oversells its impact; that was a close election.

As evidenced by Nixon eventually becoming President.

 

[786110]

Saw this being brandied about twitter, is this guy reputable or are being just grasping for straws?

http://www.cabpolitical.com/2012/10...on-in-north-carolina-and-the-race-nationally/

 

[bananas]

Lose? If you're talking about my post, I lost like $50 because I didn't wait for Obama's stock to drop further before I bought in. Obama's got it in the bag.

People keep misunderstanding my Intrade posts. My only goal is to buy low so I can maximize profit. If I would've waited till now to buy Obama stocks, I would've made at least $40 more dollars than I will now.

Okay, I misunderstood your post, but the basic message to all the people shitting their pants in this thread still stands.

 

[Cheebo]

It's worth noting that if not for a few boxes of "new" votes in Chicago and Texas, Kennedy would likely have lost. The debate meme oversells its impact; that was a close election.

Nixon also made the absurd promise to campaign in all 50 states rather than focus on the swing states, he was stuck campaigning in Alaska the weekend before the election to keep his promise to have a rally in all 50 states while JFK was in the swing states.

 

[Black Mamba]

I dunno. I think Obama was up so much cos Romney kept making mistakes. It was always going to tighten. The polls show most people had their minds made up before the debate.

If By Tuesday the polls show it tightened, then I agree. If it shows Romney much better off than that, then it's much more than just tightening.

As I said, this should be a 2-2.5% election. Obama was higher than that. But if this is tied before the debate, that is bad.

 

[pigeon]

Saw this being brandied about twitter, is this guy reputable or are being just grasping for straws?

http://www.cabpolitical.com/2012/10...on-in-north-carolina-and-the-race-nationally/

I've never heard of him, but it's safe to assume that the campaigns have better internals than we have externals, otherwise we would be the campaigns, and it's obvious that you should watch the campaigners and see what they think is important.

 

[Angry Fork]

I like how all Romney had to do to get the upper hand was for one night not be racist or bigoted, not stutter, and insinuate that Obama administration = road to stalinism. The bar was so low for Romney he just managed to not fuck up presentation-wise and now more 'Merickans like him.

Liberal democracy sucks in this environment, not only does it give too much power to retards and bigots but it makes the non-retards apathetic because they feel they're in the minority. And once voting is done people wipe their hands of the whole affair and lose direct control of managing issues. Not that they ever had that kind of control but there's a perpetual illusion that they do. And that's without mentioning how nothing gets done with constant back and forth and no mediator. Just continuous filibustering and nobody in between to say 'you're factually wrong', prove it, and tell them to fuck off.

Obama was bad and deserved the loss but not because of anything Romney said. People should only be able to have that much power if they're educated enough to understand it's consequences otherwise that freedom ends up playing into the hands of evil cunt motherfuckers. If the current fptp system is here to stay there needs to be mandatory voting for everyone, I really don't know why that isn't the case and why democrats don't brings it up.