Mr. Silver's post-2008 analysis.
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PoliGAF 2012 |OT4|: Your job is not to worry about 47% of these posts.
- Thread starter Amir0x
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ryutaro's mama
Member
I'm sorry, do we live in 2008 right now?
Where is the 1% for this year?
I'm hearing large early voting in OHIO, beyond a paltry 1%.
And this race isn't ending 269-269.
We will have a winner on Election Night.
OKAY SIR.
Yeah, I hear you there. For some reason of all the "firewall" states, to my surprise, VA seems the be one of the least likely to fail.
What part of VA are you in? I was just there in August.
FleckSplat
Member
Obama would have been "rude" and "disrespectful".
Officerrob
Banned
I agree ground game is good for about 1% in most states, except Nevada. Romney better be winning that state by a couple percent to have a chance in my opinion
ryutaro's mama
Member
You pulled the 1% number from 2008 and now you go to "OKAY SIR" when there is no 2012 number to support that?
OKAY SIR
TheHeretic
Banned
People actually watch these debates and think for themselves. Cable news has a few million viewers, elections have over a hundred million voters participate.
People don't agree he dominated. Ryan looked beta but he did an average job. Biden went aggressive and did better, but his demeanour was off putting and he's not all that articulate when he makes points.
It isn't a matter of winning and losing, people watch them and get an impression about these candidates and their ideas. Biden looked better, some hack pundit calling it a tie doesn't matter.
I never intended to cite a 2012 number to begin with. I'm simply going by what I have known to be true of the Obama's ground game in the past to help anticipate what we'll be seeing this time around when it's all said and done. No need to get testy.
Officerrob
Banned
The 1% is the number a good ground game can gain a candidate in comparison to what a normal ground game could have gotten them. In that regards, 1% is pretty significant.
ryutaro's mama
Member
It shapes the narrative my friend.
When you come away saying that "both sides were winners tonight" it tells a story that fills in the blanks for people that might have missed it.
Case in point, watch the early morning shows after the next debate. They formulate the results for the Low Information Voter that might just wanna know who "won".
Officerrob
Banned
Roanoke, which is in the southwest (Romney country). I've got my work cut out for me because I just volunteered for the Obama campaign, lol. My wife has for a while though, so it should be fun
Black Mamba
Member
Boom, RAND poll surges up for Obama.
48.75-45.65. Obama +3.1
That's a 1 point shift by eliminating last Friday's polling data.
So far Obama is about back to 49% and has yet to dip below 48%. And it should go up again, tomorrow. IMO, the RAND poll is indicating that since about Sunday, Obama has polled at 48-49% after dipping to about 46-47 for a few days prior.
Meanwhile, Romney peaked at 46.3 and has dropped nearly a point in 2 days since that. My guess is Romney polled at around 48 for a few days and has since dropped to about 45.
Tomorrow or Monday, this could be 49-45.
Anyway, the fact that Obama went up instead of holding steady for a 2nd day is important as it means his polling numbers didn't just dip and stay there and thus we're seeing only Romney's jump come down. Obama has to be getting over 48% on some of these days.
Sidenotes: Silver inputs data, he doesn't change his model. He is not looking for hits. His model accounts for the swings in other states and the national vote. He's posted numerous articles on this. He isn't tweaking anything. The computer does it on his own. Stop it. Iowa is where it is because the model believes it.
PD - I don't think you're crazy. I think you have mostly trolled to push a narrative cuz of a bet you made. You've been obviously wrong and repeat wrong things like Romney does constantly, but you've made it a schtick. At no point have I thought you were crazy or stupid, just fucking around.
However, what happened in the debate is something you didn't foresee even if you believed Romney would win. No one did. Especially the media reaction. I think you're pretty smart and when you analyze honestly you make smart and valid points.
48.75-45.65. Obama +3.1
That's a 1 point shift by eliminating last Friday's polling data.
So far Obama is about back to 49% and has yet to dip below 48%. And it should go up again, tomorrow. IMO, the RAND poll is indicating that since about Sunday, Obama has polled at 48-49% after dipping to about 46-47 for a few days prior.
Meanwhile, Romney peaked at 46.3 and has dropped nearly a point in 2 days since that. My guess is Romney polled at around 48 for a few days and has since dropped to about 45.
Tomorrow or Monday, this could be 49-45.
Anyway, the fact that Obama went up instead of holding steady for a 2nd day is important as it means his polling numbers didn't just dip and stay there and thus we're seeing only Romney's jump come down. Obama has to be getting over 48% on some of these days.
Sidenotes: Silver inputs data, he doesn't change his model. He is not looking for hits. His model accounts for the swings in other states and the national vote. He's posted numerous articles on this. He isn't tweaking anything. The computer does it on his own. Stop it. Iowa is where it is because the model believes it.
PD - I don't think you're crazy. I think you have mostly trolled to push a narrative cuz of a bet you made. You've been obviously wrong and repeat wrong things like Romney does constantly, but you've made it a schtick. At no point have I thought you were crazy or stupid, just fucking around.
However, what happened in the debate is something you didn't foresee even if you believed Romney would win. No one did. Especially the media reaction. I think you're pretty smart and when you analyze honestly you make smart and valid points.
ryutaro's mama
Member
TheHeretic
Banned
People curious enough to watch cable news aren't really going to be the voters you describe I don't think. Cable news is for people pretty engaged with politics.
Cool, I drove through there.
Yeah, I was at Virginia Beach, it's kinda whatever down there in terms of the people (lots of people vacationing lol). But I had fun.
I passed Mitt Romney's bus when he was done announcing Paul Ryan as his running mate. Had a good time sticking my middle finger out the window.
ryutaro's mama
Member
'Today Show' isn't major cable network TV.
They played highlights and had it as a tie this morning, as did GMA.
cartoon_soldier
Member
RAND uses a different methodology to right? It will be good to see such bumps in the other trackers.
Black Mamba
Member
Diablos, you should be happy! Obama is gaining in the RAND poll.
Gallup's registered voter poll was Obama +3 and tied last Sat/Sun. I believe right now it's +3 Obama. If the LV model says tied and RV model says Obama +5, that means Gallup is back to pre-debate polls with the Thurs/Fri/Sat romney boost out of the system.
RAND asks the same people every week (same 500 each monday, each tues, etc). They have them weight their own likelihood to vote and to vote for who they picked. Their model accounts for this.
It demonstrates changes over time among the same random sample. It's an interesting experiment and one I think might prove more accurate.
Their Ohio/Fla polling is useless, though. it's had Romney up 60-40 a lot of the time, including about that now, in Ohio. It's pretty obvious that their Ohio sample is small (out of 3500 people, you can't get a lot of Ohio if you're doing a true national tracker) and they randomly got a lot more repubs (romney has been consistently ahead there and florida). All you can discern is trends. For perspective, after the convention and before the debate Romney actually peaked in Ohio. As much sense as that would make without what I said above happening.
Gallup's registered voter poll was Obama +3 and tied last Sat/Sun. I believe right now it's +3 Obama. If the LV model says tied and RV model says Obama +5, that means Gallup is back to pre-debate polls with the Thurs/Fri/Sat romney boost out of the system.
RAND asks the same people every week (same 500 each monday, each tues, etc). They have them weight their own likelihood to vote and to vote for who they picked. Their model accounts for this.
It demonstrates changes over time among the same random sample. It's an interesting experiment and one I think might prove more accurate.
Their Ohio/Fla polling is useless, though. it's had Romney up 60-40 a lot of the time, including about that now, in Ohio. It's pretty obvious that their Ohio sample is small (out of 3500 people, you can't get a lot of Ohio if you're doing a true national tracker) and they randomly got a lot more repubs (romney has been consistently ahead there and florida). All you can discern is trends. For perspective, after the convention and before the debate Romney actually peaked in Ohio. As much sense as that would make without what I said above happening.
Officerrob
Banned
Cool, I drove through there.
Yeah, I was at Virginia Beach, it's kinda whatever down there in terms of the people (lots of people vacationing lol). But I had fun.
I passed Mitt Romney's bus when he was done announcing Paul Ryan as his running mate. Had a good time sticking my middle finger out the window.
Romney and Ryan have been all over this state but mostly every little nothing town with practically nobody in it. Problem is, those people were already voting for them
TheHeretic
Banned
Again, I disagree this is a sensible way to look at elections. It also smacks of the liberal bias argument in a strange reversal which makes it pretty unappealing.
We'll do this point by point;
I said electorally. In other words, whoever wins the swing states will be heading for a comfortable 300+ EVs. Obama is actually ahead in Virginia, and down by half a point in Colorado. FL is still up in the air.
His performance backed by liberal pundits who work for the media saying that it was an awful performance. Again, compare what happened last week with what happened to Ryan this week. Same level of evisceration, but the same clowns who said that Obama got destroyed are saying that Ryan held his own. So instead of a complete collapse, it's a tie! BTW, BEFORE the debates, Biden was the underdog, and people expected Ryan to run him over. The media makes people puke their guts out into plastic bags to look like runway models. You really believe that they can't influence someone's political views? Just hop on Facebook and check out a conservative page. They regurgitate media talking points all the time.
PPP didn't say it was a tie. They said it was tightening. There's a difference between those two terms. Their previous poll had Obama at +4, so it more than likely will follow the NBC/Marist poll and drop to about +2, just in time for Tuesday's debate.
Keep in mind; Romney has never led in this state, and Ohio isn't going to flip because of a debate. Ohio is blue because of what has happened here in the last 4 years, and the Democratic machine outperforming the Republican machine at every turn. That is the reality.
I said electorally. In other words, whoever wins the swing states will be heading for a comfortable 300+ EVs. Obama is actually ahead in Virginia, and down by half a point in Colorado. FL is still up in the air.
His performance backed by liberal pundits who work for the media saying that it was an awful performance. Again, compare what happened last week with what happened to Ryan this week. Same level of evisceration, but the same clowns who said that Obama got destroyed are saying that Ryan held his own. So instead of a complete collapse, it's a tie! BTW, BEFORE the debates, Biden was the underdog, and people expected Ryan to run him over. The media makes people puke their guts out into plastic bags to look like runway models. You really believe that they can't influence someone's political views? Just hop on Facebook and check out a conservative page. They regurgitate media talking points all the time.
PPP didn't say it was a tie. They said it was tightening. There's a difference between those two terms. Their previous poll had Obama at +4, so it more than likely will follow the NBC/Marist poll and drop to about +2, just in time for Tuesday's debate.
Keep in mind; Romney has never led in this state, and Ohio isn't going to flip because of a debate. Ohio is blue because of what has happened here in the last 4 years, and the Democratic machine outperforming the Republican machine at every turn. That is the reality.
lol.
It was on the day I was driving into the damn state. I was like "aw, shit, these fuckers are trolling my vacation!"
ryutaro's mama
Member
Ahhh, Mamba! I was going to bed!
So your theory was right so far...this "bump" will likely be attributed to Biden's performance and not Romney's bump going away should the trend continue into the weekend.
So your theory was right so far...this "bump" will likely be attributed to Biden's performance and not Romney's bump going away should the trend continue into the weekend.
Officerrob
Banned
You can't go a week without at least one of them being here. Some of the places they have been literally shock the shit out of me because there arn't a thousand people in the surrounding area.
Black Mamba
Member
I was right with RAND. We'll see with Gallup. Have to wait til Sunday for that one to fully show itself.
I would still be shocked it it didn't go LV tie and RV +4 or +5 on Sunday morning. Based on what happened this time last week, I don't see how it couldn't move back since Romney has come down from his peak lead.
Although, a Biden bounce narrative would be better for Obama.
I did, my posts a few minutes later about the 269 tie situation was because you mentioned it. I enjoy scenarios like this that you only get on The West Wing. Speaker John Goodman is President! Vice Presidential candidate dies on election day!!
The mythical 269 tie, it is fascinating. I wonder if I'll ever see it in my lifetime.
Delicious.
How well did they do in 08?
That's an interesting way to poll for sure. Not sure what I think of that really.
Are there any other Democratic strongholds in the state besides NOVA? Seems like everywhere else is pretty conservative if not indifferent.
ryutaro's mama
Member
If Gallup reflects your theory AND if he nails it on Tuesday, he's likely back in the saddle by 2-3 nationally points by week's end.
ErasureAcer
Banned
Ahh, sorry. Missed your post. I'd give it the odds of me winning the PowerBall Jackpot between now and election day of Biden becoming President in 2013 but it's possible...so like 1 in 175 million.
Officerrob
Banned
Central Virginia around Richmond and lots of the eastern part of the state. The west is almost all Republican though
Mgoblue201
Won't stop picking the right nation
Early voting favors disenfranchised demographics, who tend to vote Democrat. Is there any chance, then, that polls are underestimating the number of likely voters? Or do they have a good grasp on who early voters are likely to be? Gallup in particularly had something like a five point gap between LV and RV not too long ago.
Yeah, that makes sense. I do really like the state though.
Black Mamba
Member
For all our sakes, I hope not.
As for other polls, the trash IBD/TIPP poll had Romney +5 on Wednesday and Obama +1 Friday. Such a massive swing in two days by removing Thursday and debate day. I'm curious to see if the swing continues. It would mean their poll had Romney on Thursday/Friday with HUGE gains that have dissipated.
Reuters/Ipsos went from +3 on Thursday for Romeny to +1 on Friday but it's a 4-5 day tracker, not 7. This one is harder to follow what is going on. Thursday Romney +2, Friday Obama +2 change. Pretty wild back to back swings, though less days means more volatility. And they have more undecideds than the others, consistently.
I agree. Though, Gallup will show it tied in LV in this scenario, I think. Maybe Obama +1. There's a 5 point spread with RV and LV right now and no way the RV shows Obama +7.
No idea. I'm not even sure they did it or like this that year. In fairness, I wasn't poll watching 4 years ago as the election wasn't in doubt but I was paying more attention to the economy crumbling.
Officerrob
Banned
No matter who would wind-up winning, I hope it never happens. An electoral vote tie would cause chaos in this country like we havn't seen in our lifetimes.
Your negativity is getting to me PoliGaf.
I can't sleep thinking about an Obama loss. Especially because of the removal of Obamacare which would be a tremendous help to me personally and my family.
Though the only likely circumstances that would culminate in an Obama loss would be if he fucks up in the next two debates, it still makes me uneasy. All Obama has to do is show up, and "tie" these debates and he's pretty much in.
I can't sleep thinking about an Obama loss. Especially because of the removal of Obamacare which would be a tremendous help to me personally and my family.
Though the only likely circumstances that would culminate in an Obama loss would be if he fucks up in the next two debates, it still makes me uneasy. All Obama has to do is show up, and "tie" these debates and he's pretty much in.
Maybe, just maybe, it would be the catalyst we need to abolish the electoral college.
Not one of their ideas that stood the test of time. A Hell in a Cell match is a better option for today.
TheHeretic
Banned
Except Obamacare won't be overturned. Its politically impossible at this point because elements of it are very popular. The republicans would have to break it up into pieces are try to push them through congress one by one, it just isn't going to happen.
Obama winning the EV but losing the popular vote would cause a conservative push to move away from the electoral college system. And it would probably serve Democrats to happily go along with that given rapidly changing demographics.
I certainly hope so. Though I believe the Repubs will make a fight out of removing the individual mandate.
TheHeretic
Banned
Well that's the only element they could potentially remove, but that will just skyrocket cost as its a form of cost control. Even if it did happen, it wouldn't change the fact that people can't be denied coverage based on their state of health, not would it remove the other cost control measures in the bill. Romney knows this because our saving grace if he gets elected is that he has a smart and sensible economic team, so if that's your concern I really wouldn't worry.
My concern does lie with the individual mandate because both myself and my parents cannot afford insurance. I wouldn't worry if we were getting Massachusetts Romney. That's the thing really, I have no idea what kind of president Mitt will be if he gets elected.
okay
so after my gloom and doom i kinda realized that a romney push is never going to stay sustained by one good night. people are fickle and do forget things over the span of days and weeks. it's how there were so many darlings in the republican primaries.
i really hope mamba is right about gallup. first day of post-vp debate and eliminates one of the poorest polling days for obama. it absolutely needs to go up.
i think the rematch on tuesday will have people reevaluate where they stand as well. seeing obama energized and interactive with people will certainly help. and if they start talking about gay rights or women's rights or immigration, it'll play in obama's favor- especially if romney tries to walk back some of his positions.
obama seriously needs to come out swinging though. not aggressive, but assertive. he has accomplishments, he needs to show them off proudly.
maybe the only thing that worries me is that challengers continue to be perceived as winners versus debates. bush got actual gains despite kerry 'winning' every debate according to the cnn poll, but every other time, they just keep going down because of reasons. maybe the shift was so large this time that a really good performance from obama can prevent this from happening and even bring people back to his side.
so after my gloom and doom i kinda realized that a romney push is never going to stay sustained by one good night. people are fickle and do forget things over the span of days and weeks. it's how there were so many darlings in the republican primaries.
i really hope mamba is right about gallup. first day of post-vp debate and eliminates one of the poorest polling days for obama. it absolutely needs to go up.
i think the rematch on tuesday will have people reevaluate where they stand as well. seeing obama energized and interactive with people will certainly help. and if they start talking about gay rights or women's rights or immigration, it'll play in obama's favor- especially if romney tries to walk back some of his positions.
obama seriously needs to come out swinging though. not aggressive, but assertive. he has accomplishments, he needs to show them off proudly.
maybe the only thing that worries me is that challengers continue to be perceived as winners versus debates. bush got actual gains despite kerry 'winning' every debate according to the cnn poll, but every other time, they just keep going down because of reasons. maybe the shift was so large this time that a really good performance from obama can prevent this from happening and even bring people back to his side.
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