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[ryutaro's mama]

Obama campaign and allies spent Months making Romney not a viable alternative and Obama allowed it all to go down the drain in 90 minutes. DNC bounce gone. 47% bounce gone. It was shaping to be a blow out, now its a dog fight with a Republican enthusiasm advantage.

Ok dude.

Answer this:

If Mitt was EXACTLY THE SAME (denying his own policy and pivoting all night long), and Obama was more engaged, what would have been different in that debate?

 

[Measley]

http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=HGZ

?

I was including Nevada.

 

[TheHeretic]

You didn't read my post.

The only thing Obama needs is Ohio. He doesn't even need Iowa to get to 270.

Romney can win without Ohio, though he would be the first republican to do so.

 

[cartoon_soldier]

Ok dude.

Answer this:

If Mitt was EXACTLY THE SAME (denying his own policy and pivoting all night long), and Obama was more engaged, what would have been different in that debate?

A draw? Media narrative different stops the bleeding.

I was including Nevada.

Its still within 2% point?

 

[Diablos]

I really do question why Nate has IA so close. More data, please.

A draw? Media narrative different stops the bleeding

Yet another problem from the debate can of worms... the media loves their horse race, because it helps their ratings. They aren't gonna back off from that, because pre-debate they were, I think, bracing for a fairly predictable and drama-free election night. But now they have this shiny gem. No way are they backing off.

The msm really needs to just die forever but that's another convo.

 

[ryutaro's mama]

http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=HGZ

?

You didn't flip NV to Obama.

 

[Jackson50]

You are preaching to the choir. I am not a part of the crowd that expected Obama to save the world day one. In fact it pisses me off to no end, in ways I cannot fully articulate, how despite all of Obama's accomplishments so many people who voted for him have all but written him off.

I am, however, simply taking note of the fact that over the past couple months Obama has seemed less engaged than usual and really hasn't quite been himself. Something is up. I'm disappointed that it translated into a poor first debate performance after what he's done as President.

This is when you cease being drolly pessimistic and approach paranoid. Obama performed poorly, sure. But now he's been off for months? Something is up? Come on, Diablos.

 

[Measley]

A draw? Media narrative different stops the bleeding.



Its still within 2% point?

Like Ohio, Romney has never led Obama in Nevada this entire election season.

Romney can win without Ohio, though he would be the first republican to do so.

He'd have to run the table. Problem with that theory is that Ohio is a bellweather state. Which means that if it goes blue, most swing states go blue with it. So if Obama wins Ohio, VA, NH, and IA are likely to follow suit.

 

[Diablos]

I get the impression that he's been less engaged than usual and I'm paranoid? Okay.

 

[ryutaro's mama]

A draw? Media narrative different stops the bleeding.

Naw, just by Mitt's energy alone, he would have likely won.

Add to the fact that he was the underdog going in.

It would have been unlikely to be a draw.

 

[daedalius]

Looks like Nate is trying to drum up hits to his page. There's no way in hell Iowa is 50/50. They hate Romney in Iowa, and early voting started there in September.

I would hope he wouldn't be succumbing to 'DAT NARRATIVE', but who knows.

 

[ryutaro's mama]

Like Ohio, Romney has never led Obama in Nevada this entire election season.

Well, to be fair, aren't there some states he flipped (post debate) that he never lead in prior?

I can't recall.

 

[TacticalFox88]

I get the impression that he's been less engaged than usual and I'm paranoid? Okay.

Less engaged, how? Did we not see the same convention or any of his web ads?

This is not 2008, where he basically had to introduce himself to the country. This is 2012 and he's President already. He seems less "engaged" (whatever the fuck that means) because it's more about establishing ground and moving forward, rather "Hope" and "Change" type of deal.

 

[Measley]

Well, to be fair, aren't there some states he flipped (post debate) that he never lead in prior?

I can't recall.

Only states where it was up and down like FL and CO.

Last poll from PPP on 10/8-10/10 had Obama up by 4 in Nevada. Ras had it as a tie.

Also Reid's campaign is supposedly kicking ass on the ground level. I don't think Romney is even campaigning in Nevada anymore.

 

[Officerrob]

Well, to be fair, aren't there some states he flipped (post debate) that he never lead in prior?

I can't recall.

Colorado is the only one, and he currently has a .7% lead there on RCP

Only states where it was up and down like FL and CO.

Last poll from PPP on 10/8-10/10 had Obama up by 4 in Nevada. Ras had it as a tie.

Also Reid's campaign is supposedly kicking ass on the ground level. I don't think Romney is even campaigning in Nevada anymore.

Romney lead previously in Florida though, Colorado is the only one he currently leads (barely) that he never lead (RCP average) before the debate

 

[Jackson50]

I get the impression that he's been less engaged than usual and I'm paranoid? Okay.

Not only that, but the insinuation that something is "up." And has been for months. A poor performance is not enough. You have to fabricate something far more sinister. He's been fine except he performed poorly at the debate. It happens.

 

[Ecotic]

Iowa is almost a coin flip chance now because Nate's model likely assumes Iowa is doing what all the swing states have been doing since the debate: slowly catching up to the national vote situation. Romney's ahead by about 1 point, the votes have to go somewhere. Obama's firewall states are falling everywhere.

 

[ryutaro's mama]

This "firewall" meme is the worst thing to get traction here...ugh.

 

[Diablos]

Not only that, but the insinuation that something is "up." And has been for months. A poor performance is not enough. You have to fabricate something far more sinister. He's been fine except he performed poorly at the debate. It happens.

Not enough? It had to be the worst since Nixon/Kennedy.

 

[Measley]

Iowa is almost a coin flip chance now because Nate's model likely assumes Iowa is doing what all the swing states have been doing since the debate: slowly catching up to the national vote situation. Romney's ahead by about 1 point, the votes have to go somewhere. Obama's firewall states are falling everywhere.

Except Iowans have been voting since late September, and even Republican leaning polls have Obama up in that state AFTER the debate.

Romney isn't winning Iowa.

 

[Officerrob]

Iowa is almost a coin flip chance now because Nate's model likely assumes Iowa is doing what all the swing states have been doing since the debate: slowly catching up to the national vote situation. Romney's ahead by about 1 point, the votes have to go somewhere. Obama's firewall states are falling everywhere.

Problem is the one poll he has from there suggests otherwise.

 

[Diablos]

Problem is the one poll he has from there suggests otherwise.

yeah, I'm not getting it. Maybe he has teh insider infoz

 

[Measley]

yeah, I'm not getting it. Maybe he has teh insider infoz

Or he wants hits on his blog.

 

[Jackson50]

Not enough? It had to be the worst since Nixon/Kennedy.

Even if it were, to insinuate that something has been up for months is a bit much. Just accept the loss. There's nothing ominous occurring behind the scenes.

 

[Ecotic]

If it's just one poll then the evidence that he's ahead is considered weak data and so the model considers him a very slight favorite.

 

[ryutaro's mama]

Or he wants hits on his blog.

BINGO

It's hilarious, man.

Regardless of how this turns out, the media has everyone in this thread doing EXACTLY what they want--remaining hooked up to their sites and Twitter feeds.

A lot of fucking smoking, coffee drinking Sylvesters here now...

 

[PhoenixDark]

Even if it were, to insinuate that something has been up for months is a bit much. Just accept the loss. There's nothing ominous occurring behind the scenes.

Obama was off at the DNC too, and in general he has seemed tired and slow for awhile. Perhaps it's just him being tired due to traveling non-stop while dealing with Libya/Syria. I think it's fair to wonder about his general energy and even interest level.

 

[cartoon_soldier]

Or he wants hits on his blog.

The same guy who said 2012 is shaping up to be like 2008 before the debate?

 

[TheHeretic]

So now Nate Silver is in on the conspiracy. The level of denial is getting pretty remarkable. It's a real fight now, it comes down to his performance on Tuesday. Outside of that peace has to be made with the possibility of a Romney victory, otherwise you are just setting yourselves up for meltdowns.

 

[Measley]

The same guy who said 2012 is shaping up to be like 2008 before the debate?

Of course it was shaping up to be like 2008 until the debate.

I knew the polls would tighten. However I didn't anticipate the liberal freakout that sent the narrative into a death spiral for team Obama.

Regardless, I stand by my two predictions;

1. This election isn't going to be close (in an electoral sense).
2. Romney isn't winning Ohio.

So now Nate Silver is in on the conspiracy. The level of denial is getting pretty remarkable. It's a real fight now, it comes down to his performance on Tuesday. Outside of that peace has to be made with the possibility of a Romney victory, otherwise you are just setting yourselves up for meltdowns.

There is no conspiracy. I said at the end of September that the narrative for October would be the Romney comeback. I predicted that before the debates. It's a well known fact that the media wants a close race to line their pockets.

These aren't non-profit organizations we're talking about. These are corporate-owned entities that need to make money. If you're Nate Silver and your blog is not making money for the news outlet, you're heading to the unemployment line.

 

[ryutaro's mama]

So now Nate Silver is in on the conspiracy. The level of denial is getting pretty remarkable. It's a real fight now, it comes down to his performance on Tuesday. Outside of that peace has to be made with the possibility of a Romney victory, otherwise you are just setting yourselves up for meltdowns.

It's not a conspiracy.

The media does have a vested interest in having this be a closer race now that it is one.

Would you deny this?

 

[Hobbestetrician]

The town hall debate format is not a great stage for Obama to attack Romney directly but what it will allow him to do is actually connect with whoever is asking the question (and, by proxy, those watching that identify with the asker) on a human level and show that he is the one who does understand and cares. Romney has not shown the ability to do this and will look awkward and out of place. His salesman schtick worked in the first format but it is much harder to pull off in a town hall setting.

 

[TheHeretic]

It's not a conspiracy.

The media does have a vested interest in having this be a closer race now that it is one.

Would you deny this?

I'm not really comfortable with media outlets declaring victories before votes have been cast, so it doesn't really bother me, but sure. The evidence shows dynamics of the election are changing and that's what Nates model shows.

 

[ryutaro's mama]

I'm not really comfortable with media outlets declaring victories before votes have been cast, so it doesn't really bother me, but sure. The evidence shows dynamics of the election are changing and that's what Nates model shows.

Of course but I'm sure that Nate doesn't mind the increase in site traffic.

 

[Diablos]

Of course but I'm sure that Nate doesn't mind the increase in site traffic.

ehh. He might have fucked up a bit on his Iowa projection (thus far) but to say he's doing it for hits is... very non-Nate.

The town hall debate format is not a great stage for Obama to attack Romney directly but what it will allow him to do is actually connect with whoever is asking the question (and, by proxy, those watching that identify with the asker) on a human level and show that he is the one who does understand and cares. Romney has not shown the ability to do this and will look awkward and out of place. His salesman schtick worked in the first format but it is much harder to pull off in a town hall setting.

On top of this hopefully Candy Crowley will actually act like a fucking moderator. She was pretty defensive of old man Jim though, at least right after the debate, when asked about the role of a moderator blah blah.

 

[Loudninja]

Iowa sticks out as a sore thumb in early voting. Already, more than 200,000 people have voted in Iowa, a much larger share of the potential 2012 electorate than any other state.

The number of registered Democrats who have voted is about twice that of registered Republicans, 53 percent to 28 percent, with the remainder unaffiliated

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/michael-p-mcdonald/early-voting-rising_b_1962843.html

Iowa: We lead in vote-by-mail ballots cast, in-person early voting, total voting and total ballots requested. We also lead by a wider margin than we did at this point in 2008 in both ballots requested and ballots cast.

.

 

[TacticalFox88]

The town hall being a success will depend on several things.

1)The Moderator being competent. That's a given, though.

2)Obama comes out full fury, no punches back and connects his ideas with the people.

3)Romney failing at selling his bullshit to the audience. Which is likely based on the past campaign, but who knows?

 

[Jackson50]

Obama was off at the DNC too, and in general he has seemed tired and slow for awhile. Perhaps it's just him being tired due to traveling non-stop while dealing with Libya/Syria. I think it's fair to wonder about his general energy and even interest level.

This seems highly revisionist simply to portray his debate performance as symptomatic rather than an isolated incident. It's fair to wonder whether he was distracted from debate preparation. But I've seen nothing suggesting he's enervated.

 

[PhoenixDark]

Of course it was shaping up to be like 2008 until the debate.

I knew the polls would tighten. However I didn't anticipate the liberal freakout that sent the narrative into a death spiral for team Obama.

Regardless, I stand by my two predictions;

1. This election isn't going to be close (in an electoral sense).
2. Romney isn't winning Ohio.



There is no conspiracy. I said at the end of September that the narrative for October would be the Romney comeback. I predicted that before the debates. It's a well known fact that the media wants a close race to line their pockets.

These aren't non-profit organizations we're talking about. These are corporate-owned entities that need to make money. If you're Nate Silver and your blog is not making money for the news outlet, you're heading to the unemployment line.

Obama is currently losing Florida, Virgina, and Colorado. How is this not a close election? It will look like 2004's result, barring another game changer

The media wants a close race but that doesn't mean they control the election; their coverage didn't cause Obama to crater in the polls, his performance did.

I've never seen so much Silver criticism and poll doubting until this week. He may say some weird stuff on twitter but his numbers don't lie. This election is about Ohio, where Obama is losing ground. PPP says it looks like a tie. This is reality

 

[ryutaro's mama]

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/michael-p-mcdonald/early-voting-rising_b_1962843.html

Problem is, if Mitt's surge energizes the base and the Election day turnout for the GOP is high.

 

[ZeroRay]

Romney's probably been training hard to appear likable as fuck to the general populace, so Obama better bring that passion and be on point doing so.

 

[Officerrob]

Obama is currently losing Florida, Virgina, and Colorado. How is this not a close election? It will look like 2004's result, barring another game changer

The media wants a close race but that doesn't mean they control the election; their coverage didn't cause Obama to crater in the polls, his performance did.

I've never seen so much Silver criticism and poll doubting until this week. He may say some weird stuff on twitter but his numbers don't lie. This election is about Ohio, where Obama is losing ground. PPP says it looks like a tie. This is reality

Nope. Movement here has been very slight also

 

[Diablos]

Nope

Not yet, at least.

 

[ryutaro's mama]

Obama is currently losing Florida, Virgina, and Colorado. How is this not a close election? It will look like 2004's result, barring another game changer

The media wants a close race but that doesn't mean they control the election; their coverage didn't cause Obama to crater in the polls, his performance did.

I know,right?

The coverage of the Biden/Ryan debate as a tie wasn't influenced by the media at all, eh?

I've never seen so much Silver criticism and poll doubting until this week. He may say some weird stuff on twitter but his numbers don't lie. This election is about Ohio, where Obama is losing ground. PPP says it looks like a tie. This is reality

It's funny how you just ignored what Measley (a guy that is on the ground in Ohio) said all along about Obama's ground game.

That is a reality too or is it not because it goes against your narrative?

 

[ErasureAcer]

Here's the definitive post if anyone is wondering about a 269-269 tie.

33-16-1 in Congressional Delegations favoring Republicans. The 1 tie is Minnesota which should go to the Democrats this go around. So the Democrats would have to flip 9 delegations or maybe just 8(don't know what happens in a tie...maybe D.C. gets a vote) if the Electoral College ends up in a 269-269 tie.

Doesn't look possible for Democrats to turn 8 delegations. The easiest would be ND, SD, MT as you just have to flip the one seat. But Larry Sabato has them all at likely Republican and then that's only 3. Noem(D) in SD I saw had some close numbers within 5. And ND, MT have Open seats.

Arizona he actually has flipping to 5-4 Democrats.

Wisconsin could draw to a tie with a Kreitlow over Duffy win in the 7th or even a Dem pickup if Ryan or Republican in the 8th go down.

Nevada could be a pickup. They added a seat so it could end in a tie. Obama has to lose Nevada for the likely tie scenario though.

New Jersey lost a seat and that might be a tie state now at 6 a piece.

Colorado is 4-3 Republicans right now with 2 Republican seats 1 lean and 1 tossup.

NH has two tossups held by Republicans but Obama needs NH for 269 tie so flips there would make sense.

So let's review.

Likely Dem pickups
Minnesota(tie to D)
Arizona(R to D)
Colorado(R to D)
NH(R to D)

So that's 30-20

Likely draws
NJ(D to tie)
Nevada(R to tie)
Wisconsin(R to tie)

So that brings it to 28-19-3

Even if the Dems pick up MT, ND, SD based upon the farm bill or whatnot...that's only 25-22-3.

A 269-269 tie would make Romney President it looks like. I can't see any other Dem pickups...maybe Michigan if they can flip 3 and 11 or one and make it a tie...and that's if they pick up CD 1.

To conclude, this guy's article says you need a majority of delegations(26) to get a president. (although his numbers don't match up with the Wikipedia saying it's currently 34-15-1.

So if the Dems can get it down to 25 Republican delegations...the senate votes for VP out of Biden/Ryan and with no President elected by the house. Biden becomes President.

And to add here's an analysis saying Romney has 26 safe delegations that was written yesterday. He basically says the same thing but threw SD in Safe Romney.

 

[Diablos]

I know,right?

The coverage of the Biden/Ryan debate as a tie wasn't influenced by the media at all, eh?



It's funny how you just ignored what Measley (a guy that is on the ground in Ohio) said all along about Obama's ground game.

That is a reality too or is it not because it goes against your narrative?

If PPP is saying it looks like a tie and the ground game only accounts for 1% then we are basically still in tie territory. Not much else left to say about that.

 

[ryutaro's mama]

If PPP is saying it looks like a tie and the ground game only accounts for 1% then we are basically still in tie territory. Not much else left to say about that.

Where are you getting 1%?

 

[NullPointer]

The spin and blame aimed at TV personalities is just pathetic. At the end of the day Obama turned in arguably the worst debate performance of an incumbent in modern history. There is no historical precedent for a bump this large going to a challenger after a debate, or for the margin of victory undecided voters gave him in snap polls. You can blame Matthews, Schultz, etc all you want but ultimately the buck stops with the president. He failed, 70 million people saw it live, and that is what is driving this huge Romney surge.

Has the media extended the story? Sure. But they did the same with the 47% video, which in turn extended it's relevancy and poll impact, and no one here complained (or attempted to unskew polls and remove the bounce from polling). This is what they do: they latch onto a story and bleed it dry, then move on to the next one. The problem for Obama is that the next big story for the media to feast on is Tuesday's debate. If he doesn't get his act together we will see another week of this hemorrhaging, and Barack Obama will lose this election. Again, the only person to blame for that will be Obama. He apparently had this election locked up, but couldn't take the time to properly prepare for a debate with a man he allegedly loathes.

Republicans spent the summer crucifying Romney for running a feckless campaign, and you guys loved it. Many days were spent relishing in the schadenfreude on Fox News, Limbaugh, Laura Ingram, and the host of other conservative personalities who were jumping ship. Yet the minute liberals face a similar crisis and start freaking out, you guys pretend like this is a purely liberal trait - that conservatives tow the party line and never falter. Stop projecting strength onto your opponents and face reality: winners act like winners, and losers act like losers. If Romney had gotten his ass kicked while attempting to move to the center, republicans would be in pure rage and butthurt mode this very moment, as the election slid from their grasp permanently.

This is exactly how I see it. Its not panic, nor is it pessimism, nor is it cynicism. Its looking at what the hell happened and what is happening, taking that knowledge into account and moving forward.

Bams has it in him to turn the tide of his skeptics. He's done it many a time before, and there is no way he's not aware of the fretting from all quarters. He'll be there on Tuesday and he'll be fully engaged - for me thats all he really needs to do - Be the adult in the room, not somebody passive and aloof.

Calling anybody who points this stuff out trolls or chicken littles or whatever else is nonsense. Saying this is all the media's fault is equally nonsense, because the media didn't change the way they act just for that debate. Its what they do, and it helps and harms all sides.

The town hall being a success will depend on several things.

1)The Moderator being competent. That's a given, though.

2)Obama comes out full fury, no punches back and connects his ideas with the people.

3)Romney failing at selling his bullshit to the audience. Which is likely based on the past campaign, but who knows?

And then you have the makeup of the audience, which can always throw things for a loop. Is the person asking a question unemployed? A small business owner? Somebody who has serious healthcare issues? It can go a lot of ways.

 

[Officerrob]

Not yet, at least.

Look at the polls, there is very little movement here in Virginia, even post debate. Romney gains post debate are: Ras 1%, NBC/WSJ/Marist 3%, and PPP 2% (Obama still leading by 3%). The Quinnipiac poll had Obama gain 1% for a lead of 5%. RCP has the "WeAskAmerica" poll thrown into their average but the Obama campaign here considers it and them a garbage pollster (they even discounted them when they had Obama ahead). The point is that while there have been dramatic shifts in other states, Virginia is pretty steady. It's going to be a LONG night waiting for Virginia to be called, always was

 

[ryutaro's mama]

This is exactly how I see it. Its not panic, nor is it pessimism, nor is it cynicism. Its looking at what the hell happened and what is happening, taking that knowledge into account and moving forward.

Bams has it in him to turn the tide of his skeptics. He's done it many a time before, and there is no way he's not aware of the fretting from all quarters. He'll be there on Tuesday and he'll be fully engaged - for me thats all he really needs to do - Be the adult in the room, not as passive.

Calling anybody who points this stuff out trolls or chicken littles or whatever else is nonsense. Saying this is all the media's fault is equally nonsense, because the media didn't change the way they act just for that debate. Its what they do, and it helps and harms all sides.

No one said this was 100% the media's fault but to completely ignore their influence and lay it all at Obama's feet is hilarious.

Most would say Biden dominated the debate last night but the Republican narrative pushed the "tie" angle and it's now a tie.

They play a role no doubt.