Officerrob
Banned
Seek help, quickly
-
Hey, guest user. Hope you're enjoying NeoGAF! Have you considered registering for an account? Come join us and add your take to the daily discourse.
PoliGAF 2012 |OT4|: Your job is not to worry about 47% of these posts.
- Thread starter Amir0x
- Start date
- Status
Seek help, quickly
Take his latest post. I can see very little wrong with he has said. To dismiss it as 'trolling' simply because it is consistent with his 'schtick' seems a little lazy.
If you think something he has said is blatantly wrong, explain why.
Officerrob
Banned
Have you ever heard of the little boy who cried wolf? Nobody takes anything he says seriously anymore and that's his fault. Hell, he even jumped the gun and posted a fake poll last night because it fit his narrative. I have seen him post some really insightful stuff only to follow it up with some of the most pathetic attempts at trolling I have ever seen. You can't blame people for tuning him out.
ryutaro's mama
Member
Because PD fishes for responses.
No one wants to feed him unless it's a slow night or the responder is new.
He's way too dismissive of the importance of a media narrative in shaping people's perceptions, and he thinks Democrats freaking out about one listless debate performance when their guy was way ahead in the polls is equivalent to conservatives distancing themselves from Romney when he was an obvious drag on downticket numbers and something like a 20% to win, and then when he wrote off 47% of the country including basically every single popular demographic.
BotoxAgent
Member
yeah, we've been spoiled by the huge lead Obama amassed post-convention. Seeing falling apart a bit is like being in a bad dream. I just really really despise Romney and guy like shouldn't even be this close to the Presidency.
I have been donating all year. Too bad I live in San Francisco right now. If I lived in a swing state and didn't have a job that takes all my time, i would be volunteering for sure. But I did volunteer back in 08 though.
Not quite. The economic indicators denote a modest advantage for Obama. That's partially why he's enjoyed a moderate lead throughout the cycle.
If this were true, I can't conceive a more damning indictment of this thread.
Arrowgigantic
Member
Cross-posted from the debate thread, someone please help make this look better:
Can somebody take the original GIF and do this but make it better? I can't make this work.
Can somebody take the original GIF and do this but make it better? I can't make this work.
PhoenixDark
Banned
And yet you continue to respond with one sentence attacks aimed at me. We've both posted on GAF for awhile, I've never been rude to you; if anything I have ribbed your Kobe love here and there but that's about it. Yet you continually target me with nonsense in this thread.
My last post is quite clear, and I'd imagine it doesn't differ too much from the general positions of many people. I'm not saying "Obama sux he's gonna lose lolol." I'm saying right now, Obama is in trouble and needs to turn this thing around ASAP. GAF spent at least half a week laughing at me, and in Dax's case dismissing the idea that debates matter at all. Well here we are a few days later and it is clear I was correct. Romney is surging, and Obama has lost 51 electoral college votes since the debate (according to Nate Silver's now-cast of the race). We have gone from a clear Obama victory to what seems like a toss up.
Yet instead of engaging in an intelligent discussion you have decided to insult me and not read my posts, which are CLEARLY not troll attempts. Obama is trending downward, that's not some bullshit I pulled out my ass it's the reality of the situation. You sound scared to me, and mad - and instead of taking it out on the guy who put you in this situation (Obama) you have decided to take it out on me.
I enjoy politics and policy, and am a liberal. I will continue discussing this race thoughtfully regardless of your derail attempts. Black Mamba, Aaron Strife, Pigeon, and many others clearly think I'm crazy but at least we can have discussions on facts and share some mutual agreement on a few things. You are incapable of that. I'm not going to put you on ignore because I've never put anyone on ignore, I think it's weak; the internet is the internet, it's not serious. But you should be ashamed by your behavior, and I want you to know I do not like your internet behavior.
TheHeretic
Banned
Well I simply disagree. His lead has come from weak opposition and likeability, how not presiding over good employment, wage growth or economic growth figures at all.
PantherLotus
Professional Schmuck
Cross-posted from the debate thread, someone please help make this look better:
Can somebody take the original GIF and do this but make it better? I can't make this work.
HOLY FUCK LMAO
Seriously, the second you post a fake poll/info you're done. Combine that with his constant trolling and going through his posts to see if he's trolling or not gets old. I still like him in other threads, but I'm tired of the trolling here.
ryutaro's mama
Member
LOL
Good thing you have no idea what you're talking about but hey, assign "Kobe love" to any random poster.
Stay free, PD.
Possibility 2 is correct barring another poor debate performance by Obama or any external factor that damages him. Unfortunately for nerves around here, that probably won't be apparent until the end of next week or the beginning of the following week.
It's really interesting to see how a lot of us just cannot get the dismal debate performance out of our heads. That's exactly what I feared. It's like a tragedy, you can't fully feel the impact at first but as time goes on it really starts to hit you. I think that's what's happening to a huge portion of the base.
I can't come up with the words to say how disappointed I am in Obama for not seeming to care for a proper debate prep. I think something is seriously wrong with him/his campaign.
Bill Clinton, his wife, and every important Democrat on the national level delivered amazing speeches to help lift him to the top. But even Obama's speech at the DNC was a bit... off. It was okay, but not Obama at his best. I'm truly starting to wonder if his psychological well being is in check. Because what I'm seeing is everyone around Obama, all the way down to people donating to his campaign or making phone calls, showing up and doing all they can to secure a second term -- except Obama.
I'm not confident in Obama to deliver on Tues. He needs to be in top form. He cannot skip a beat. He has to be on the offensive at all times. Yet the best he could say, was (paraphrasing), "well, gee, I guess I was being too nice, huh." No kidding.
I can't come up with the words to say how disappointed I am in Obama for not seeming to care for a proper debate prep. I think something is seriously wrong with him/his campaign.
Bill Clinton, his wife, and every important Democrat on the national level delivered amazing speeches to help lift him to the top. But even Obama's speech at the DNC was a bit... off. It was okay, but not Obama at his best. I'm truly starting to wonder if his psychological well being is in check. Because what I'm seeing is everyone around Obama, all the way down to people donating to his campaign or making phone calls, showing up and doing all they can to secure a second term -- except Obama.
Around here? Democrats are freaking out all over the place. Lots of Independents who hate Romney seem to be as well.
I'm not confident in Obama to deliver on Tues. He needs to be in top form. He cannot skip a beat. He has to be on the offensive at all times. Yet the best he could say, was (paraphrasing), "well, gee, I guess I was being too nice, huh." No kidding.
Is everything okay at home, Diablos?
ryutaro's mama
Member
Diablos, what will you say if he turns in an excellent Debate #2?
I think you should take a break till then--you shouldn't watch the polls at all man.
It's too much for you.
It's seriously not healthy to be this emotionally invested when nothing is changing at the moment.
I think you should take a break till then--you shouldn't watch the polls at all man.
It's too much for you.
It's seriously not healthy to be this emotionally invested when nothing is changing at the moment.
I don't seem to be as frantic as the previous posts in here over the past few hours.
I'm more disappointed than frantic, and genuinely concerned for what is wrong with the President's well-being and what the people around him were smoking.
But the upcoming PPP OH poll, and what's happening on 538 with IA and CO is some legit tipping point stuff that every Democrat should be keeping an eye on right now. We're halfway into October now, the clock is running out.
I'm more disappointed than frantic, and genuinely concerned for what is wrong with the President's well-being and what the people around him were smoking.
But the upcoming PPP OH poll, and what's happening on 538 with IA and CO is some legit tipping point stuff that every Democrat should be keeping an eye on right now. We're halfway into October now, the clock is running out.
Officerrob
Banned
The bigger question is why? There has only been one Iowa poll post debate and Ras had Obama up two (previous Ras poll of Iowa had Romney leading by three). The race might be as close as Nate suggests there, but there is nothing showing it but a single poll that Nate admits skews Republican in which Obama gained five points from the previous poll. Kinda odd that Nate sees it that way and that there has been so little Iowa polling.
Yes, "around here." Most people are either talking about the VP debate or attending to other facets of their lives that don't involve politics. People who truly want Obama to win would be better served pointing out the ridiculousness of the Republicans as opposed to obsessively following every utterance by Nate Silver. The horse race crap is the most self defeating, pointless exercise in the world.
Edit: Its hard enough to psychoanalyze someone you have contact with on a daily basis. Trying to guess what the President is feeling from the limited glimpses you get of him on TV is impossible. As I said before, with the exception of Clinton, every incumbent President in the modern era did poorly in their first debate.
TacticalFox88
Banned
Now we're getting into "Are you fucking kidding me.jpg." territories.
All of you need to take a step back. He's the fucking President of the United States! Do you have any idea what kind of shit he knows but can't say because of national security? GWB said once, that if you knew HALF of the shit that he knew on a daily basis from the CIA daily briefings that you wouldn't sleep at night. I'd imagine now, it's even worse for Obama. Of course he's not going to be on his A-Game 100 percent of the time, because A)It's a stressful job with a lot on your shoulders and B) He's freaking HUMAN!
Libs seem to want Obama to be Superman and yet get mad when his Kryptonite (which is basically his calm and collected attitude of wanting to work with others no matter how much someone hates him) slows him down or weakens him.
One, and I mean ONE lackluster debate based on optics and not actual substance (which 'Bams had in spades, lest we forget.) and you all melted down faster than the Wicked Witch of the west. The DNC convention? Nope doesn't matter, Bam's fucked up. All his accomplishments? Nope doesn't matter, Bams fucked up. His astounding support and moves to lay the ground work for the country to EVENTUALLY move further to the left? Nope, doesn't matter, dat debate performance oh noes!
See, the biggest mistake you all made was that you started to judge the debate on Oct 3 by the MEDIA and the average American standards rather than the informed intellectuals most of you claim or think you are. You got caught up in all the hysteria and you made a mountain out of a mole hill. Obama's "loss" could've easily been swept under the rug had Dems and Libs CALMED THE FUCK DOWN. It's a wonder any shit gets done considering how most of you act in adversity.
All I'm saying is,Obama fucked up (relatively, yes), but YOU ALL made his so called fuck up even worse by overreacting and going into fantasy land, leaving reality into the dust. So, please, come back to Planet Earth and let's win this fucker a second term. You, as well as I, know what's at stake here.
Those are some no-name polls right there. Only one I recognize is Ras, which is heavily Republican leaning, and Gallup which still has Obama in the lead.
Looks like Nate is trying to drum up hits to his page. There's no way in hell Iowa is 50/50. They hate Romney in Iowa, and early voting started there in September.
ryutaro's mama
Member
I feel like this:
Let's say Romney was exactly the same as he was in Debate #1. No change. Obama was more interested and locked in but trying to call Mitt on his lies/pivots/reversals/charges to the Center/etc.
Fox News writes it as a Romney win, easy.
msnbc/CNN maybe calls it a tie?
The polls still move towards Romney. Maybe not as much but they still move.
I guess my point is, Romney came in with such low expectations, anything but falling on his face was gonna be a victory but he went above and beyond. And Obama stumbled. It was a perfect storm.
BotoxAgent
Member
rewatching the VP debate right now, so good. Biden basically curbstomped Ryan's presidential aspirations last night. Hopefully Obama can bang out a beating as similar.
And the problem with debate 2, even if it is good, is that the first debate re-legitimized Romney in the eyes of many who were casting doubt on him. That can make a lasting impression into the second debate that makes people want to cheer Romney on. It makes Obama have to be, again, in top form. He can't just "turn in a good debate" -- yes, it's important to show up and take part, derp. He has to go for the jugular like Romney did, not go off on tangents, but also be very clear and specific as to why he's the better choice. He tends to struggle with that, more than he used to for whatever reason.
Like Cheebs said, a lot of you are too young to remember what it was really like in 2000 and 2004. They were terrible experiences. I don't want to go through that shit again, especially with all the progress we've made. Your optimism is always refreshing to see, but a lot of the panic you see is from people who have been through this before and don't want to go through it again.
And I don't dispute the first debate, rule, shall we call it. But the problem is that I don't think any debate in my lifetime was handled so poorly by the incumbent. It wasn't just a loss, it was a complete embarrassment.
Like Cheebs said, a lot of you are too young to remember what it was really like in 2000 and 2004. They were terrible experiences. I don't want to go through that shit again, especially with all the progress we've made. Your optimism is always refreshing to see, but a lot of the panic you see is from people who have been through this before and don't want to go through it again.
I'm not psychoanalyzing him, but it seems that he's emotionally drained and a bit off. That's not an expert analysis by any means, but a lot of people seem to be thinking that way.
And I don't dispute the first debate, rule, shall we call it. But the problem is that I don't think any debate in my lifetime was handled so poorly by the incumbent. It wasn't just a loss, it was a complete embarrassment.
The evidence suggests otherwise, though. It's not an emphatic case for Obama because some indicators are weak. But more are strong enough to indicate a modest advantage. And it's certainly inaccurate to surmise they militate heavily against him.
Defending Obama's not exactly popular at this juncture. But I think there's a reason he was unprepared. The poor performances of previous incumbents is suggestive.
ErasureAcer
Banned
Romney is just going to lie in the second Pres. debate like he did in the first one. The media will pick the President on whether they want to call Romney's BS this time around.
Well you can start by calming down and realizing that this is nothing like 2004.
Honestly, it's a pretty meager crop, I think. American Research Group is something like the least reputable pollster according to 538. Many of the other pollsters there are extremely sparse and have only done like two polls this year. The remaining polls are national tracking polls. I mean, stats don't lie, I guess, but that's only true in a statistically significant sense -- 95% of the time, that is.
ryutaro's mama
Member
I agree with you first point--he was also, in a strange way, the "underdog". Big deal in America. We love underdogs.
But Romney didn't go for the jugular.
He just left a better impression with voters. He never stumped Obama or made him go speechless.
He made himself into a viable alternative to Obama.
Like Measley said, then go volunteer. No one is gonna feel sorry for you or your party.
What does your girl Pelosi say?
"DON'T AGONIZE--ORGANIZE."
BotoxAgent
Member
Hopefully, Obama has a file cabinet of all the lies Romney has said and just throw it back to Romney's face when he's etch-a-sketching on stage. Make Romney debate himself and his old positions.
ryutaro's mama
Member
If I was Obama, I would open the debate (semi-jokingly) with the following question:
"Before we get started, I'd like to know one thing Governor--which Mitt will I be debating tonight...the Conservative, the Moderate or the Liberal one?"
The next debate is not going to be as easy as people think for jumping on Romney. Its a town hall. The candidates are expected to shill their answers to the people asking. They can take pops at the other but if they go off on a tangent its gonna look bad.
Heard it mentioned on tv today and its totally true. Romney is in salesman mode now with these debates and such and he can do the sleazy salesman role perfectly.
Heard it mentioned on tv today and its totally true. Romney is in salesman mode now with these debates and such and he can do the sleazy salesman role perfectly.
TacticalFox88
Banned
hahahaha start the ether before it even begins. Goddamn.
cartoon_soldier
Member
https://twitter.com/fivethirtyeight/status/160963300094525440
I don't know what Nate's pollster rating for ARG is post 2008. The reason the polls hurt Obama is that their previous polls showed him leading, so it is not like they have a big Republican lean.
You are preaching to the choir. I am not a part of the crowd that expected Obama to save the world day one. In fact it pisses me off to no end, in ways I cannot fully articulate, how despite all of Obama's accomplishments so many people who voted for him have all but written him off.
I am, however, simply taking note of the fact that over the past couple months Obama has seemed less engaged than usual and really hasn't quite been himself. Something is up. I'm disappointed that it translated into a poor first debate performance after what he's done as President.
Officerrob
Banned
Isn't that Nate tweet the equivalent of the old saying about a broken clock being right?
ryutaro's mama
Member
Officerrob
Banned
Because Nate considers them the worst, the fact that they got one right might be a "sign of the apocalypse". What I don't understand is that Nate considers the American Research Group the worst, yet used them as the backbone for a "Real good day for Romney in the polls" today
I was just about to make this point but I am glad you did. It won't be a one on one kind of vibe. They have to talk to the voters directly, and structure their statements/answers around them first and foremost. If they are dismissive and semi-ignore the voter, it will look arrogant. That's why it's gonna be harder for Obama to "go for the jugular" as we like to say, because he'll have to do it through an answer that is sincere, relatively calm, and expressed in a respectful tone so it doesn't look like he's talking down to the voter.
TheHeretic
Banned
It's not as powerful as you think it is. It requires too much knowledge of the campaign so far people left undecided don't have. He needs to spend most of the debates outlining what he's done and what he intends to do, and just take Mitt Romeys proposals at face value and identify their weaknesses.
Getting into an argument with someone over what their positions actually are is too difficult. Romney relies on repeating "that's not what I'm proposing" and it can't be debunked in a debate effectively. It's confusing for the audience and turns the whole thing into a wash.
With his tax cuts for example, just point out his proposal reduces deductions for the wealthy and rewards the extremely wealthy with a bracket reduction, as deductions are mostly relevant for six figure earners. It rewards the most prosperous without helping small business owners and successful professionals. It's a powerful line and it has the virtue of being true - Romneys own economists say it as well.
Getting into detail is also boring and confusing, stick to the big picture. If he attacks Romney at all it should be on Medicare and Social Security. That's more than sufficient to win a debate against him, rather than trying to pin him on some specific policy idea he came up with 15 minutes before the debate.
cartoon_soldier
Member
Obama campaign and allies spent Months making Romney not a viable alternative and Obama allowed it all to go down the drain in 90 minutes. DNC bounce gone. 47% bounce gone. It was shaping to be a blow out, now its a dog fight with a Republican enthusiasm advantage.
Do you use twitter? ask him
TacticalFox88
Banned
If you all were willing to let one debate performance distill your enthusiasm then that says a whole lot more of their "support" for them, than Obama, honestly.
cartoon_soldier
Member
We need more post debate IA polls to make that decision. We have only had one. I have no idea why Quinn and NBC didn't poll it.
But yes, if Obama can keep above 50% in OH, WI and IA...I would feel good next week.
I just want the 2nd debate to ignite Democrats again.
I am not disagreeing with you. Obama supporters should fucking realize what a Romney presidency means.
You didn't read my post.
The only thing Obama needs is Ohio. He doesn't even need Iowa to get to 270.
- Status
Similar threads
- Locked