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[cartoon_soldier]

Morgan Freeman in da motherfucking house

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4nUDg-O93GU

And effect of Romney's rallies = media, local media:

http://instagram.com/p/QukIetR5dh/

 

[Particle Physicist]

I missed the first debate. Was it really THAT bad? Did Obama let an allahu akbar slip while Romney sang sweet sex into peoples' ears?

If you rewatch it, it actually is not that bad. Romney lie his ass off on absolutely everything, and Obama had a hard time keeping up with those lies. What made the loss worse is that the media did not do its job discussing those lies, and they completely oversold Romneys performance. The liberal freakout made things worse as well.

 

[Dr. Pangloss]

Morgan Freeman in da motherfucking house

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4nUDg-O93GU

And effect of Romney's rallies = media, local media:

http://instagram.com/p/QukIetR5dh/

It's morning in America.

 

[Baraka in the White House]

If you rewatch it, it actually is not that bad. Romney lie his ass off on absolutely everything, and Obama had a hard time keeping up with those lies. What made the loss worse is that the media did not do its job discussing those lies, and they completely oversold Romneys performance. The liberal freakout made things worse as well.

I need to sit down and watch but that's the gist I'm getting. Pro-Obama folks freaking out helped contribute to the Romney Domination narrative almost as much as Romney folk overselling the victory. Blood in the water and all that. Which is a shame because Republican voters still went to bat for Ryan even though by most accounts he truly got slaughtered.

 

[Aaron Strife]

Said I'd take a break but hopefully this will abate the doom and gloom: Obama gains in the RAND tracker, which now has him up 49-46.

Gallup - a drop in approval (48-46) but a gain in head to head for RVs (49-46). No change for LVs.

 

[Owzers]

^^^ Rand Paul giving false hope democrats for a day before the knife strikes.

 

[Cheebo]

Gallup updated. Their 7 tracking of LV is unchanged (Romney by 2), their 7 day RV tracking is Obama +1 so by 3. However their 3 day tracking for approval which always signals where the 7 day tracking is about to head has approval down a net -4. So now Obama approval 48, disapproval 46. Meaning the last two days, all post VP have been pretty bad for Obama in their data.

Said I'd take a break but hopefully this will abate the doom and gloom: Obama gains in the RAND tracker, which now has him up 49-46.

Gallup - a drop in approval (48-46) but a gain in head to head for RVs (49-46). No change for LVs.

As Nate Silver says, never focus on one poll. But the overall picture. Romney has been holding steady in Gallup (although Obama is about to have some bad gallup days per the approval drop) and Rasmussen today, despite the VP debate. We'll see what AP/IPSOS says.

So far polling since the VP debate has shown the VP debate has not helped Obama comeback from Romney's massive gains after their debate.

 

[Cloudy]

Analysis of Likely Voters from Gallup

http://www.gallup.com/poll/157955/romney-obama-among-likely-voters.aspx

Several things are apparent from a careful analysis of Gallup Daily tracking of voters' views of the election. First, the registered voter trends suggest that Romney's initial gains from his strong performance in last week's debate may be short-lived. Second, Gallup's inaugural likely voter results suggest that Romney at this point appears to have a turnout advantage, meaning that Obama will need to develop a strong lead among all registered voters in order to be assured of winning the actual popular vote. All in all, if the election were held today, Gallup's analysis suggests that the race would be too close to call.

RV 49-46 O+1
LV 49-47 R Unchanged
Approval 48-46 (net -4)

 

[PhoenixDark]

You pulled the 1% number from 2008 and now you go to "OKAY SIR" when there is no 2012 number to support that?

OKAY SIR

The number will likely be the same this year. Romney's ground game is far better than McCain's, who literally had no ground game; at the time his camp was arguing that Obama was wasting money on an unproven strategy. The GOP is still behind in this area, but will do better than last time having acknowledged what happened in 2008.

And let's not forget unions aren't doing as much work for democrats this as they were in 2008.

 

[Tim-E]

I'm pretty sure there was a conscious decision to have Obama avoid mention of the '47%' comment during the debate (and to otherwise appear as 'above politics' as possible) so that he could appear presidential and evade accusations of 'spiking the football.' That was an enormous mistake; they fucked up badly.

I'm not saying there's any shining wisdom to Internet armchair analysis, but I am saying that Obama's team is nowhere near infallible, and sometimes criticism of their decisions is perfectly justified.

Of course they're infallible, but I think both this campaign and his 2008 campaign showed that they were pretty good at what they did despite any setbacks they faced. Mistakes will happen, but I think they know they fucked up bad and know will respond appropriately, despite what Campaign Managers cartoon_soldier and Cheebo say. Regardless of what the campaign is doing they are going to find fault with it because why not? If the Obama campaign was projected to win the same amount of states LBJ won in 64 they would still be complaining.

 

[Bam Bam Baklava]

Gallup updated. Their 7 tracking of LV is unchanged (Romney by 2), their 7 day RV tracking is Obama +1 so by 3. However their 3 day tracking for approval which always signals where the 7 day tracking is about to head has approval down a net -4. So now Obama approval 48, disapproval 46. Meaning the last two days, all post VP have been pretty bad for Obama in their data.



As Nate Silver says, never focus on one poll. But the overall picture. Romney has been holding steady in Gallup (although Obama is about to have some bad gallup days per the approval drop) and Rasmussen today, despite the VP debate. We'll see what AP/IPSOS says.

The approval numbers have been extremely volatile. He has hit 48 a number of times only to bounce back up to 50+ the next day.

 

[Cloudy]

Well the bleeding seems to have stopped...according to Gallup at least. Obama needs a strong 2nd debate

 

[Cheebo]

The approval numbers have been extremely volatile. He has hit 48 a number of times only to bounce back up to 50+ the next day.

They are, but they tend to be a leading indicator. If Obama drops in approval in the next few days his match up numbers will also go down. If he gains in approval his match up numbers will go up in a few days.

I may be a "chicken little" but in this instance I am just stating what to expect to not freak out worse, the approval signals what we should be seeing sunday/monday in the match up numbers due to them being lagging indicators.

 

[syllogism]

That analysis is several days old

 

[Cloudy]

That analysis is several days old

Hmm, I hadn't seen it till now

 

[Cheebo]

Well the bleeding seems to have stopped...according to Gallup at least. Obama needs a strong 2nd debate

Look at the approval, which is a 3-day poll vs 7 day of the match up numbers. It means and has always been the case his match up numbers will go down pretty soon. Todays Gallup basically screams the bleeding hasn't stopped. He'll lose about another 2-3 in matchup pretty soon as the days where his approval was huge cycle out and the last few days where his approval drop dominate.

 

[pigeon]

Look at the approval, which is a 3-day poll vs 7 day of the match up numbers. It means and has always been the case his match up numbers will go down pretty soon. Todays Gallup basically screams the bleeding hasn't stopped. He'll lose about another 2-3 in matchup pretty soon as the days where his approval was huge cycle out and the last few days where his approval drop dominate.

This is nonsense. We've been watching Gallup show a huge spread between Obama's positive approval and his matchup numbers for a whole week. Now suddenly they're probative? They haven't been correlative at any point this entire year.

 

[gkryhewy]

Look at the approval, which is a 3-day poll vs 7 day of the match up numbers. It means and has always been the case his match up numbers will go down pretty soon. Todays Gallup basically screams the bleeding hasn't stopped. He'll lose about another 2-3 in matchup pretty soon as the days where his approval was huge cycle out and the last few days where his approval drop dominate.

You're full of shit.

Morgan Freeman in da motherfucking house

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4nUDg-O93GU

Great ad.

 

[Aaron Strife]

This is nonsense. We've been watching Gallup show a huge spread between Obama's positive approval and his matchup numbers for a whole week. Now suddenly they're probative? They haven't been correlative at any point this entire year.

Yeah, his numbers didn't get that much better when his approval shot up to 54%.

 

[Diablos]

Mark Halperin who is in Ohio following Romney's blitz of Ohio rallies these past few days says the headline of the main Ohio statewide paper this morning is about Romney's skyrocketing support in the state.

And that in the last 2 weeks Romney had had nearly four times as many events in Ohio as Obama.

Ughhh. Romney knows Obama's swing state support is at the tipping point, so what better place to and try to seal the deal than Ohio? I bet he'll be there more than anywhere else between now and election day.

Also, Obama needs to spend more time there.

Said I'd take a break but hopefully this will abate the doom and gloom: Obama gains in the RAND tracker, which now has him up 49-46.

Gallup - a drop in approval (48-46) but a gain in head to head for RVs (49-46). No change for LVs.

RAND poll is nice, but Gallup not so much. Bams went from 54 to 48 in just a week, right after hitting his highest point in eons.

That first debate was like a catalyst for a fresh restart to the Romney campaign. Like September never happened.

It's good to know Obama is practicing in VA.

btw, shots being fired at the CO office is really disturbing stuff. I hope that's the worst we see between now and election day.

 

[Loudninja]

You're full of shit.



Great ad.

Its really is a great ad, wow.

 

[ryutaro's mama]

Yeah, his numbers didn't get that much better when his approval shot up to 54%.

Ignore that.

Doesn't fit the panic scenario.

 

[pigeon]

RAND poll is nice, but Gallup not so much. Bams went from 54 to 48 in just a week, right after hitting his highest point in eons.

You're officially in reruns.

 

[Aaron Strife]

Dunno what it is, but I feel a lot better today than I did yesterday. Maybe it was the Morgan Freeman ad.

I'll still try and keep my involvement here to a minimum.

 

[watershed]

That Morgan Freeman ad needs to be played all over the country. Its got a good message with a great tone at a time when people seem to be turning away from Obama.

 

[ryutaro's mama]

It seems (based on the recent polls) that all Obama's debate performance did was energize people that were dejected and not gonna vote for him (or at all) into action.

Romney made them think, "Hey, maybe we can win this thing!"

I don't think the undecideds are turning the tide for Romney--it's Republicans with new life that are.

 

[Baraka in the White House]

It seems (based on the recent polls) that all Obama's debate performance did was energize people that were dejected and not gonna vote for him (or at all) into action.

Romney made them think, "Hey, maybe we can win this thing!"

I don't think the undecideds are turning the tide for Romney--it's Republicans with new life that are.

That's what I'm thinking. I know we like to shit on the stupidity of undecideds but I doubt that many truly on-the-fence voters were swayed by that debate.

 

[Effect]

It seems (based on the recent polls) that all Obama's debate performance did was energize people that were dejected and not gonna vote for him (or at all) into action.

Romney made them think, "Hey, maybe we can win this thing!"

I don't think the undecideds are turning the tide for Romney--it's Republicans with new life that are.

I thought that was what the polling internals were saying when they were being broken down before. Romney's increase was coming from those that were already leaning right or were republicans. Not that anyone was switching over to him. Also Likely Voter estimates, that doesn't count new voter registration on either side does it? Hasn't the Dems been way up in that regard all over the place as well?

 

[Tim-E]

Dunno what it is, but I feel a lot better today than I did yesterday. Maybe it was the Morgan Freeman ad.

I'll still try and keep my involvement here to a minimum.

I've toned down my involvement here over the last week. I can't stomach this much whining. If you count Obama as losing Virginia, Florida, and Colorado he can still lose two of New Hampshire, Nevada, and Iowa and still win. I know you guys are freaking out over Ohio, but Obama isn't going to lose it. I also think he's still going to win in Virginia. If after the worst week of his campaign he is still projected to win, which he is, I'm not going to stress myself to death. His ground game is too strong and his campaign is molesting swing states with information about early voting. I stand by my projection that Obama will win with 303 EVs.

Obama's campaign had their worst week of the year and he's STILL projected to win. In addition, please stop putting so much attention on national polls, because they do not matter. Calm down, people.

 

[Darkgran]

Quick question.

How many of you here know about the "white horse prophecy"?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/White_Horse_Prophecy

http://www.salon.com/2012/01/29/mitt_and_the_white_horse_prophecy/

This is what scares me the most. I live in Utah and I hear people talking about this all the time. They truly believe that this is Mitt.

 

[Diablos]

Romney is starting his ad blitz. I'm skeptical that this is the right strategy as they ceded a ton of ground to Obama in the last few months, but it will be interesting.

I think it's the right idea for his campaign. Capitalize on his win, his talking points, and really drive home Obama's lackluster performance. Obama went after Mitt really hard with ads, and then some. Mitt is not going to hesitate doing just the same now that he has more to work with in terms of both content in the debate and momentum on behalf of his campaign and supporters.

Let's go back in time when someone else wanted to be arm chair campaign director:

Obama needs to put more work into PA. McCain consistently outspends him there in ads and does rallies there roughly 4x as much as Obama. Obama can't win the election if PA slips away. Not even Virginia would save him. It would be far easier to not take PA for granted. Week after week he is outspent in ads. I mean come on, throw some extra cash at it and do some more rallies there. He has done like 9258958928958 in Florida in the past week, he can spare time for one in PA and McCain is there like twice a week.

Diablos and you live too much in the now and need to take the long view.

Er, perhaps, but this is different than 2008, it has shaped up to be a much closer election and the "long game" is important, sure. But you can't ignore the fact that all of his swing states are reaching tossup status now, even Ohio it seems. In 2008, at this point, they were moving in the other direction.

Quick question.

How many of you here know about the "white horse prophecy"?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/White_Horse_Prophecy

http://www.salon.com/2012/01/29/mitt_and_the_white_horse_prophecy/

This is what scares me the most. I live in Utah and I hear people talking about this all the time. They truly believe that this is Mitt.

Oh, shucks. If only the left had a faction of the voting bloc that was as radical as the tea party, we could paint Romney as this!

Get your 90's AOL inspired chain letters in the oven guys, it's time to rock 'n roll!

 

[Joe Shlabotnik]

Quick question.

How many of you here know about the "white horse prophecy"?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/White_Horse_Prophecy

http://www.salon.com/2012/01/29/mitt_and_the_white_horse_prophecy/

This is what scares me the most. I live in Utah and I hear people talking about this all the time. They truly believe that this is Mitt.

Never heard about that... but eh, I'm pretty sure we all assumed he's got Utah on lockdown.

 

[reilo]

Analysis of Likely Voters from Gallup

http://www.gallup.com/poll/157955/romney-obama-among-likely-voters.aspx



RV 49-46 O+1
LV 49-47 R Unchanged
Approval 48-46 (net -4)

Second, Gallup's inaugural likely voter results suggest that Romney at this point appears to have a turnout advantage

Yeah, sorry, but I'm gonna go out on a limb here and proclaim that Obama has the much better ground-game and always has. This seems to be a case of "independents" and republican-leaning pollees being all rah-rah and pollsters buying the shit they're selling.

 

[bananas]

Quick question.

How many of you here know about the "white horse prophecy"?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/White_Horse_Prophecy

http://www.salon.com/2012/01/29/mitt_and_the_white_horse_prophecy/

This is what scares me the most. I live in Utah and I hear people talking about this all the time. They truly believe that this is Mitt.

Eh. Mitt has already come out an said he doesn't believe that shit.

 

[leroidys]

PoliGAF fallout aside - what do you think the reaction will nationally if Obama loses? I don't think Democrats and their supporters in the media have been shy about pushing racial narratives into the debate and just wonder if they are stoking a powder keg that could blow up into riots, etc.

Helter skelter, get ready.

 

[PhoenixDark]

It seems (based on the recent polls) that all Obama's debate performance did was energize people that were dejected and not gonna vote for him (or at all) into action.

Romney made them think, "Hey, maybe we can win this thing!"

I don't think the undecideds are turning the tide for Romney--it's Republicans with new life that are.

I said this yesterday, although I also think a decent amount of real independents moved to Romney too. Independent ID numbers have been inflated all year by republicans calling themselves independents out of shame, and some independents moving into the dem party due to Romney's weak candidacy. Major Garrett had an article about this phenomena during the summer where both campaigns noticed an odd jump in alleged democrats in multiple states, and I think this explains it.

Romney looked presidential and won the debate, causing depressed republicans to go home to their party, and for some of those dem leaning independents to move to Romney as well; this election was always going to tighten to a degree but was made worse by that latter group abandoning Obama. The question is will they come back: if Obama rebounds in the debates they probably will. Still I find it rather odd that these people would flock to Romney in the first place, after the 47% shit and other things. It suggests to me that Obama's independent support was always weak, it's just that true independents and dem leaning ones had nowhere else to go. Now that there are two legitimate candidates instead of one, their votes are up for sale

 

[ryutaro's mama]

Yeah, sorry, but I'm gonna go out on a limb here and proclaim that Obama has the much better ground-game and always has. This seems to be a case of "independents" and republican-leaning pollees being all rah-rah and pollsters buying the shit they're selling.

Bu-bu-but Romney has made 4 times as many visits to Ohio over Obama in the last 2 weeks!

 

[Aaron Strife]

I've toned down my involvement here over the last week. I can't stomach this much whining. If you count Obama as losing Virginia, Florida, and Colorado he can still lose two of New Hampshire, Nevada, and Iowa and still win. I know you guys are freaking out over Ohio, but Obama isn't going to lose it. I also think he's still going to win in Virginia. If after the worst week of his campaign he is still projected to win, which he is, I'm not going to stress myself to death. His ground game is too strong and his campaign is molesting swing states with information about early voting. I stand by my projection that Obama will win with 303 EVs.

Obama's campaign had their worst week of the year and he's STILL projected to win. In addition, please stop putting so much attention on national polls, because they do not matter. Calm down, people.

Most gaffers have trouble going from "AWWW YEAH, LANDSLIDE BITCHES" to "Oh, we're not in the clear yet." They jumped straight to "OH FUCK WE'RE ALREADY DEAD"

If PPP has Obama up 2 in Ohio I'll take it. Especially if he's at 50 or more.

 

[reilo]

Bu-bu-but Romney has made 4 times as many visits to Ohio over Obama in the last 2 weeks!

Yeah... it's like people seem to forget that Obama still has a) a money advantage in recent months and most importantly, b) an enormous ground-game advantage.

Shit, RCP still counts Michigan and Pennsylvania as a "toss-up". Romney isn't getting those.

 

[Diablos]

I said this yesterday, although I also think a decent amount of real independents moved to Romney too. Independent ID numbers have been inflated all year by republicans calling themselves independents out of shame, and some independents moving into the dem party due to Romney's weak candidacy. Major Garrett had an article about this phenomena during the summer where both campaigns noticed an odd jump in alleged democrats in multiple states, and I think this explains it.

Romney looked presidential and won the debate, causing depressed republicans to go home to their party, and for some of those dem leaning independents to move to Romney as well; this election was always going to tighten to a degree but was made worse by that latter group abandoning Obama. The question is will they come back: if Obama rebounds in the debates they probably will. Still I find it rather odd that these people would flock to Romney in the first place, after the 47% shit and other things. It suggests to me that Obama's independent support was always weak, it's just that true independents and dem leaning ones had nowhere else to go. Now that there are two legitimate candidates instead of one, their votes are up for sale

Yeah, the debate, as I previously said, re-legitimized Mitt in the eyes of those who were about to break for Bams or sit it out. It's becoming increasingly clear. You speak of hail marys, well, that first debate might have been it. Just look at Ohio alone. Mitt is on fire there, really closing the gap. This can't happen.

But it is! He could be leading by the end of next week, who knows? Either way OH is looking to have gone from a 6-7 pt. Obama lead to almost a pure tossup, and that's the last thing any Democrat wants to hear.

 

[ryutaro's mama]

Most gaffers have trouble going from "AWWW YEAH, LANDSLIDE BITCHES" to "Oh, we're not in the clear yet." They jumped straight to "OH FUCK WE'RE ALREADY DEAD"

That's the problem.

The AWWW YEAH, LANDSLIDE BITCHES people were delusional to think that Obama was gonna march into November 6th with an 85% chance to win the Presidency.

That's why they are freaking out right now.

 

[Tim-E]

Yeah... it's like people seem to forget that Obama still has a) a money advantage in recent months and most importantly, b) an enormous ground-game advantage.

Shit, RCP still counts Michigan and Pennsylvania as a "toss-up". Romney isn't getting those.

But he made a Big Bird ad! It's over, man!

 

[Loudninja]

Most gaffers have trouble going from "AWWW YEAH, LANDSLIDE BITCHES" to "Oh, we're not in the clear yet." They jumped straight to "OH FUCK WE'RE ALREADY DEAD"

If PPP has Obama up 2 in Ohio I'll take it. Especially if he's at 50 or more.

I think it will be 2 or 3.

I also expect Obama to lead in people who voted already.

 

[empty vessel]

It's morning in America.

Little did America know, it was actually dusk. But, then, leave it up to Americans to get something diametrically wrong.

 

[AniHawk]

You don't understand how that poll works.

i even their site and stuff and still need help

 

[Diablos]

When are the new polls dropping?

Must have more polls!

 

[ryutaro's mama]

When are the new polls dropping?

Must have more polls!

Dude, it's Saturday--don't waste a day off stressing over polls.

Go do some Saturday shit.

I am.

 

[pigeon]

Yeah, sorry, but I'm gonna go out on a limb here and proclaim that Obama has the much better ground-game and always has. This seems to be a case of "independents" and republican-leaning pollees being all rah-rah and pollsters buying the shit they're selling.

Again, Gallup's likely voter analysis assumes that, if their turnout projection is 55%, then the top 55% of their likely voter screen will turn out and the bottom 45% will not. This system is basically guaranteed to overrepresent extremely likely and extremely engaged voters, who are always maxing out the likely voter screen, and underrepresent infrequent or less engaged voters who are identifying as significantly more likely to vote than usual, especially since the questions themselves also underrepresent infrequent voters (since they include things like "do you know your polling place?" which, actually, also underrepresents early voters). These assumptions aren't necessarily completely wrong -- it's probably okay to be skeptical of infrequent voters -- but it's easy to picture situations where they will significantly underrepresent Democratic likely voters, which is probably why the RV/LV split in Gallup's model almost always closes to just a couple of points by November.

 

[ryutaro's mama]

Again, Gallup's likely voter analysis assumes that, if their turnout projection is 55%, then the top 55% of their likely voter screen will turn out and the bottom 45% will not. This system is basically guaranteed to overrepresent extremely likely and extremely engaged voters, who are always maxing out the likely voter screen, and underrepresent infrequent or less engaged voters who are identifying as significantly more likely to vote than usual, especially since the questions themselves also underrepresent infrequent voters (since they include things like "do you know your polling place?" which, actually, also underrepresents early voters). These assumptions aren't necessarily completely wrong -- it's probably okay to be skeptical of infrequent voters -- but it's easy to picture situations where they will significantly underrepresent Democratic likely voters, which is probably why the RV/LV split in Gallup's model almost always closes to just a couple of points by November.

Last point from me for awhile. (I got shit to do)

The Democrats can't control what the Republicans are doing; they can only control what they do.

You wanna win this election? STFU, stop crying (no one is gonna feel sorry for you) organize, register and vote.

You know what your candidate stays for so stand with him. One bad debate and less than desirable polling numbers of late shouldn't be discouraging you but rather emboldening you.

One thing is for sure--if you don't show (as a party) you guys want this, than the Republicans will be more than happy to take it from you.

2010 should have proven that to you--complacency kills, not bad debates.

 

[Diablos]

I think it will be 2 or 3.

I also expected Obama to lead in people who voted already.

+1 or 2 to you first point

Agreed on your second point.