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PoliGAF 2012 |OT4|: Your job is not to worry about 47% of these posts.
- Thread starter Amir0x
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Shhh, don't bring attention to it.
i think basically because the world is retarded, the actual result is a 'tie'. In realityville though, Biden took Ryan out to the slaughterfarm and proceeded to methodically cut him up, fleshy chunk by fleshy chunk, and then he turned his eviscerated remains into a sort of political stew and fed it to his constituents.
Apparently being aggressive against lies and pinning people down so they are literally rendered speechless with the inability to get specific makes being all nervous and shit.
But Biden really should have controlled his goofy retarded laughing every five seconds.
How do you know?
Think about the past four years for hispanics in the state. Could be an upset. Never say never
Someone tell him to shut it, its been a while since we've had good news!
Matt Taibbi perfectly describes how I feel when it comes to Biden's laughing.
http://www.rollingstone.com/politic...-debate-joe-biden-was-right-to-laugh-20121012
Well, while the Hawaii polls didn't mean that Hawaii wasn't a solid blue state, they did indicate that Kerry support post-debates was soft.
diablos can't stop freaking out over every inconsequential data point on Earth that shows the least bit of negativity about Obama and then he is brightened up by a clear outlier/bs poll showing Obama up in Arizona?
Maybe all we need to do is make shit up and Diablos would calm down for a change
Hey Diablos I hear Obama just had an amazing poll in Indiana, he's surging back there.
I read that already and understand the 'sentiment', but it's still wrong. Because this is politics, and sometimes how something looks is just as important as whether that something was "right" or not. I believe it was also wrong on top of it, but that's irrelevant. It was clearly a stupid thing to do from a visibility stand point, because it consistently made him look childish and reports from the public agree... this is being held against him.
Maybe all we need to do is make shit up and Diablos would calm down for a change
Hey Diablos I hear Obama just had an amazing poll in Indiana, he's surging back there.
Eidan said:
I read that already and understand the 'sentiment', but it's still wrong. Because this is politics, and sometimes how something looks is just as important as whether that something was "right" or not. I believe it was also wrong on top of it, but that's irrelevant. It was clearly a stupid thing to do from a visibility stand point, because it consistently made him look childish and reports from the public agree... this is being held against him.
Half and half
Member
Biden destroyed Ryan. But to Ryan's credit, he held up well enough to convince the people who don't F5 political news 100 times a day.
Aaron Strife
Banned
Can you imaginearizona going blue would completely change the game . . . obama wouldn't need ohio, virginia, colorado, or even new hampshire.
not gonna put much stock in that poll though, could easily be an outlier and way too many undecideds to mean anything. fun to think about though.
Karl Rove - "Well, seeing as how Ohio has just been called for Mitt Romney, I think it's safe to say that our candidate is in after a close race."
Brit Hume - "Mr. Rove, Arizona has just been called for Obama."
Karl Rove - ".........................................."
omfg where are my sedatives ahhhhdiablos can't stop freaking out over every inconsequential data point on Earth that shows the least bit of negativity about Obama and then he is brightened up by a clear outlier/bs poll showing Obama up in Arizona?
Maybe all we need to do is make shit up and Diablos would calm down for a change
Hey Diablos I hear Obama just had an amazing poll in Indiana, he's surging back there,.
okay maybe we overreacted a bit, still, the fact that a poll like this is coming out post-debate in tea party central is pretty incredible
Black Mamba
Member
So Gallup went up in rv as I predicted. But I don't see it anywhere but here. Their site only has approval updated last I checked. RCP didn't update anything.
Also ibs/tippz unchanged from +1 Obama.
Gallup rv switching tomorrow would indicate no major debate bounce except for Rasmussen. State polling should reflect that soon.
So far I have been right.
Also ibs/tippz unchanged from +1 Obama.
Gallup rv switching tomorrow would indicate no major debate bounce except for Rasmussen. State polling should reflect that soon.
So far I have been right.
metalslimer
Member
There is no chance in hell Obama takes Arizona this cycle, but like I said it's closer than I thought it would be and maybe in 2 cycles it will shift.
I think people were mainly hoping the bleeding stopped, not for a bounce. Obama's current polls easily win him the presidency, but people were freaking out at how the polls were swinging.
I think people were mainly hoping the bleeding stopped, not for a bounce. Obama's current polls easily win him the presidency, but people were freaking out at how the polls were swinging.
BotoxAgent
Member
I like ecstatic Diablos.
Hopefully it some sign of rebound or something for O
Hopefully it some sign of rebound or something for O
If Gary Johnson was on the Arizona ballot, Romney would be in trouble.
Half and half
Member
Interesting idea, maybe he's a leading indicator. Might have to pick his brain on the direction of the s&p 500.
I know, it's fun to toy with the idea in ones head. But it shouldn't be taken seriously beyond that, since it is pretty much the only poll all election cycle which would suggest something like that.
I think the important thing is that Obama still seems to have a clear floor to his polling, and Romney seems to have a clear ceiling. If he were to lose any more debates as badly as he did on Wednesday, then things will get scary. So fingers crossed that their new debate "strategy" looks good Tuesday.
I know my main thing was to see if Romney could actually chip into any of Obama's polling base, and so far it seems that was not the case. Obama still seems to have a 48 polling floor in the states that matter. Romney still seems to have a 46/47 polling ceiling in all the states that matter, and Romney has pretty much never broke 50 in those states unlike Obama.
Oh, okay. Post the data when you have the opportunity. My curiosity was piqued because many of my family are AWIU journeymen, and they have been actively campaigning for Democrats.
I disagree. If Biden wasn't as aggressive, and if he didn't laugh at Ryan's inability to answer straight forward questions, or his outright ignorance of foreign policy, we would instead be talking about why Biden was so soft and reserved.
metalslimer
Member
He could have been just as aggressive without the laughing, but the laughing was intentional imo. All of my conservative friends I've talked to have basically had nothing to say when I told them that if your only argument is against a guy laughing in the debate you have no leg to stand on.Basically Obama should be just as aggressive without the snark.
This and the baking contest. Anyone else find these things really weird?
Half and half
Member
Rolling Stone article on how Mitt dodges taxes:
http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/news/mitt-romney-s-tax-dodge-20121012
I'm only partially through it, but I remember Biden brought up the carried interest thing in the debate.
http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/news/mitt-romney-s-tax-dodge-20121012
I'm only partially through it, but I remember Biden brought up the carried interest thing in the debate.
I dunno, Mitt gaining steam in OH is fucked up. I agree, hopefully the new strategy kicks the electorate in the head and the love affair with Mitt's post-debate shit ends next week.
How can I be wrong? Polling already supports my belief and not yours and Taibbi's, and that's how we gauge whether or not these things are of consequence politically, isn't it?
But it's not about being aggressive, which I agree with. Being aggressive asserts a sense of alpha dog power, a leadership dominance that voters generally like to see (as long as it doesn't cross the line to bullying). On the other hand, voters like to see their candidates ARE able to exhibit self-control and understand the gravity of the topics they are discussing. The way Biden consistently kept laughing, no matter how serious the subject or important the point being made, gave him the appearance of a cackling child unable to sit still in his seat. It made him appear to care about the topics a little less than he should have. And frankly, it made him look unpresidential.
Diablos said:
I dunno I put pretty good stock in the NBA/Marist and CNN polls in Ohio, which put him +6/+4. And even Ras put him +1. So, although i think Romney gained slight ground, the fact that Obama is still leading there, has unprecedented ground game/early voting advantage makes the game virtually unchanged from before the debate. The game is still Obama with a electoral advantage that makes it impossible for Romney.
One or two more bad debates like the first would be the only thing that could change it, imo
metalslimer
Member
How can I be wrong? Polling already supports my belief and not yours and Taibbi's, and that's how we gauge whether or not these things are of consequence politically, isn't it?
But it's not about being aggressive, which I agree with. Being aggressive asserts a sense of alpha dog power, a leadership dominance that voters generally like to see (as long as it doesn't cross the line to bullying). On the other hand, voters like to see their candidates ARE able to exhibit self-control and understand the gravity of the topics they are discussing. The way Biden consistently kept laughing, no matter how serious the subject or important the point being made, gave him the appearance of a cackling child unable to sit still in his seat. It made him appear to care about the topics a little less than he should have. And frankly, it made him look unpresidential.
I've wondered about this, but do people actually look at the VPs as if they will become president at some point? I mean outside of extreme outliers like Sarah Palin's stupidity (McCain would have most likely lost even without her) do people really vote based on how good of a job they think the vice president could do as president? Or they do they primarily see them as talking pieces for the presidential candidate
If Obama honestly has two more bad debates and people vote in Mitt Romney, I honestly won't care. The public will get what it deserves in a president and Obama will get what he deserves for having a terrible end campaign run.
How can I be wrong? Polling already supports my belief and not yours and Taibbi's, and that's how we gauge whether or not these things are of consequence politically, isn't it?
But it's not about being aggressive, which I agree with. Being aggressive asserts a sense of alpha dog power, a leadership dominance that voters generally like to see (as long as it doesn't cross the line to bullying). On the other hand, voters like to see their candidates ARE able to exhibit self-control and understand the gravity of the topics they are discussing. The way Biden consistently kept laughing, no matter how serious the subject or important the point being made, gave him the appearance of a cackling child unable to sit still in his seat. It made him appear to care about the topics a little less than he should have. And frankly, it made him look unpresidential.
Fair enough. Still, I think you'll always get people who grimace and chafe at the idea of any kind of political disagreement, even more so if the politicians become heated or passionate. At the end of the day though, people will side with someone who looks strong, no matter how they achieve this, to someone who looks weak. The fact that people disliked Biden's laughter but he is still considered the winner in most polling is testament to this. Romney himself lacked any real substance during his debate, cut off the moderator, and repeatedly fought for the last word even when it wasn't his turn. But his aggressiveness made him look strong, and he was considered the clear winner against the polite/weak Obama.
Aaron Strife
Banned
The only bounce Gallup has indicated is that Romney got an enthusiasm bump. Selling himself to the center on positions was worth it to attack the president I guess.
Biden showed how a Democrat can enthuse the base, now it's Obama's turn.
Nate on the Arizona poll:
Lost Fragment
Obsessed with 4chan
hahaha, I had to move closer to my screen to see what the hell you were talking about.
I agree with you. People always like to say "well nobody likes someone to be rude", but actually sometimes that rudeness is being seen as 'taking control of a situation', such that they will instead interpret it as someone who knows how to drive the car and has a better command of the facts.
Romney did a few things... he spoke his points clearly and without stuttering and awkwardness. And two, he spoke his points extremely fast, making it impossible for the audience to personally pin down any one lie, ESPECIALLY since Obama also then failed to take Romney to task for almost anything he said. So the result was the audience then assumed Romney was saying the truth, and because the media is filled with incompetent assholes who benefit from surprise news stories that challenge inevitability, those lies stayed as truths since they did not do their job.
I hope so badly that Obama has studied and stayed awake long hours memorizing facts and counter punches for this Tuesday debate, because another sleepy barely-there performance for the man means this thing is going to get fucking bloody.
Probably no or few polls out today.
I wonder if Arizona has multilingual registration forms and ballots. We have them here in Utah.
Joe Biden: poll shaker.
Aaron Strife
Banned
Baraka in the White House
2-Terms of Kombat
Gah, so tired of polls.
Fuck polls.
Fuck polls.
Dominican Power
Member
This thread moves so goddamn fast. And all these polls are driving me crazy; information overload.
I don't vote BASED on it, but it is part of an accumulation of data points that is necessary to make an informed decision. Because these individuals can become president if something bad happens to the one we have, it is important to know he is capable of taking over.
I believe Biden definitely is though, he is the most genuine politician I've seen and, despite what some think, extremely capable. Just needs to compose himself sometimes.
I would. It is vitally important to me that he wins, because there is Supreme Court nominations on the line. And the fight for the Affordable Care acts survival will be bitter and horrible. But those nominations... they can ruin this country for generations. It must be Obama.
NullPointer
Member
Depends what you mean by substance. I thought Romney did an incredible job at being a conduit for economic anger and disappointment. There were times he was pleading with Obama to understand how people were hurting, and that people needed jobs. The way he spoke channeled genuine discontent and worry. And so when he'd turn around and say that he was focused on the middle class, that he could bring back the jobs at higher pay and cut people's taxes people were ready to listen, and it sounded reasonable, provided you don't stop to look into the details.
Even the 716 billion 'cut' from Medicare was framed as an issue that would have Doctors taking fewer patients, all while implying a lack of benefits without stating as much. Romney also framed Obamacare as Federal overreach and an affront to states and the market that would cause some hospitals and services to close down.
Lastly, he was able to paint Obama with the broad brush of tax and spend without any repercussions. By that point people were ready to believe him, because he spoke with authority.
Basically, Romney showed more skill at manipulation than I would have ever granted him otherwise, and a politician does need that. Channel honest emotions, stoke those fires and fears, and then lay out a vague recommendation that seems like a radical difference from the opponent. It wasn't just Obama being weak at that first debate, it was also Romney winning.
Edit: To put this another way, Romney verbalized a lot of genuine doubts and fears. And by rhetorical magic that made his perspective, attacks and plans seem more genuine.
But in my gut I think the manipulation and lack of details and speaking of warm fuzzies can only bring a temporary reprieve for the Romney campaign. You can't fully escape your baggage - and all of his previous statements are there for any interested person to find, or for the Obama campaign to bring back into focus.
The Romney/Ryan facade only stands when unchallenged, and even then it teeters. It should be easy enough to remind people that Romney and Ryan are the worst possible champions for their current so-called causes.
So yeah, Romney's gains pissed me off and worried me, but its the same tendency in elections that caused those gains that lead me to believe they'll falter, and its that nothing ever stays in the limelight for long enough. Call it an electoral etch-a-sketch when it comes to public perception and media stories.
I actually think in my gut that the VP debate will help in the polls, by a small amount. You've got some lean Dems out there just looking for Obama to spell out why he needs the vote, and they look to the debates. I think Biden provided red meat to the base and gave Ryan the laughing stock treatment that he deserved - enough to put some juice back into the batteries of not-quite-strong Obama voters and just plain anti-Romney/Ryan types.
Black Mamba
Member
RAND and Gallup RV improved by a point for Obama. IBS, Reuters, Ras, Gallup LV unchanged.
All either good news or not bad news for Obama.
No state polls other than that zona one I know of released. Not sure if PPP or anyone else releasing any tonight.
Baraka in the White House
2-Terms of Kombat
Well, I suppose I walked right into that one.
Ohio from PPP is tonight.
Frank the Great
Banned
no change in the polls is great news for obama at this point. if we go into the election with the polls the way they are reading right now, he is the favorite (based on swing state polling).
it's just that damn momentum romney had. hopefully a decent debate performance from bams will be enough to maintain status quo until the election.
it's just that damn momentum romney had. hopefully a decent debate performance from bams will be enough to maintain status quo until the election.
eBay Huckster
Member
RMP trolling everyone again
They were teasing that one being very close, right?
NullPointer
Member
I pictured you swinging into that one myself.
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