Don't be silly. Obama's approval is obviously cratering from Biden's poor performance at the debate.
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PoliGAF 2012 |OT4|: Your job is not to worry about 47% of these posts.
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Don't be silly. Obama's approval is obviously cratering from Biden's poor performance at the debate.
Aaron Strife
Banned
Okay, sorry. Predicted winner doesn't factor into the horse race at all -- it's just an interesting tidbit. Intention to vote isn't really trending in either direction -- Romney supporters obviously are more likely to vote than Obama supporters, that's well known, and that's still true. (So you can deduce, as always, that there are more Democratic supporters in the sample to counteract their lower enthusiasm, which is appropriately representative of the country.) There are some really weird intention spikes in that graph, and they're always downward, and they're always at times that don't seem to correlate to any actual events, so I'm not sure what the deal is there, but all that info is already factored into the horse race so we don't need to worry about it.
Shifts between candidates is a little more interesting. The correct way to look at this graph is to note that when the two lines are close to each other and deep within the MoE that's archetypal churn -- from the current positions, it's hard to really conclude anything and probably safe to assume that whatever change we're seeing is extremely minor. There are several points in the graph where the difference between the two lines is similarly tight. There are two points where the shift lines break apart -- one is right after the RNC, the other starts with the DNC and proceeds through September. These periods represent long-term shifts of opinion. If you colored in blue all the bits where the blue line is above the red line, and did the same with red for the other way*, you would see that overall, there's still a hell of a lot more blue than red -- because the aftereffects of 47% is still seriously hurting Romney in this particular sample at least. So this chart should help explain why Obama still has a significant national lead in the RAND poll -- though it doesn't really explain the uptick in the horse race, so await future events on that.
I literally have no idea how this post responds to my post.
* Calculus!
Aaron Strife
Banned
For what it's worth, Larry Sabato officially predicts an Obama victory, ranged anywhere from 277 to 303 electoral votes. The toss-up states being Virginia, Colorado, and New Hampshire.
Sabato points out that Romney could still win if he lands decisive wins in the next two debates, but if he doesn't, nothing will change.
These debates are critical. For right now though, let's all take a breath. Sabato is something of a centrist Democrat (his close relationship with Jim Matheson implies a political philosophy close to that), and has been pretty conservative in estimating Dems' chances. Only recently did he come around to saying Democrats could still hold the Senate for example, and he only sees Democrats picking up a few seats in the House. That he's already calling it for Obama (barring something major of course) is pretty good.
Sabato points out that Romney could still win if he lands decisive wins in the next two debates, but if he doesn't, nothing will change.
These debates are critical. For right now though, let's all take a breath. Sabato is something of a centrist Democrat (his close relationship with Jim Matheson implies a political philosophy close to that), and has been pretty conservative in estimating Dems' chances. Only recently did he come around to saying Democrats could still hold the Senate for example, and he only sees Democrats picking up a few seats in the House. That he's already calling it for Obama (barring something major of course) is pretty good.
Has he ever been wrong at this point?
Huh? At worst, it's a wash. Biden didn't fuck up, though.
makes sense. thanks.
have they been accurate in the past? did they focus on the last two election cycles at all?
Aaron Strife
Banned
I think that was sarcasm.
wikipedia said:
Sabato's actually hedging a little -- the article says, basically in PoliGAF style, that Obama needs to do better in the next two debates, but if he does, Sabato expects the race to pop back to a steady Obama lead.
I believe this is the first year for the RAND poll to do politics, though they have a lot of experience at doing other surveys. Nate Silver and Cohn seem to like it and think it's relatively solid.
Particle Physicist
between a quark and a baryon
At the same time, it uses a different methodology that has yet to be proven, so at this moment, I think it should be taken with a grain of salt.
Fixed.
Half and half
Member
I think if Mr. Obama rigorously defends his policies as much as Ryan did in the VP debates, he'll be fine. I don't expect him to lie as much, obviously. But just go in with a little more passion. Interrupt a little, demands the last word at times, etc.
I think he shouldn't go anywhere near Biden-level, heh. Biden was a little too unchained. Just a little
I think he shouldn't go anywhere near Biden-level, heh. Biden was a little too unchained. Just a little
metalslimer
Member
I have no doubt Obama will wipe the floor with Romney in a town hall style debate, especially on topics relating to foreign policy as Romney and co can barely form a coherent message on that. Of course if it all becomes about Libya, Obama will be in a bit of trouble as their message on that has been terrible.
He should go completely to Biden's level without the laughing, since this a town hall you have to be more relatable. He should however completely call Romney on his flip flopping and lying everytime he does it. Hell Biden even missed a few opportunities to do it.
He should go completely to Biden's level without the laughing, since this a town hall you have to be more relatable. He should however completely call Romney on his flip flopping and lying everytime he does it. Hell Biden even missed a few opportunities to do it.
metalslimer
Member
His laugh is one the most awkward things I've ever seen. Everytime he tried to clown Biden he came off as extremely awkward
Haha sure.
Wow, Republicans really screwed themselves with that whole drive against Hispanics in the primaries.
surprise arizona win for the presidency!
Aaron Strife
Banned
What did I say, WHAT DID I SAY
Too many undecideds indicating that Obama's lead there is tepid. However I wouldn't be surprised if Obama overperforms there based on his strength with Hispanic voters. Not enough to win but perhaps pick up some House seats and push Carmona past the finish line
Much love
Calm down, you're going to spill coffee on yourself.
That number should not be considered incontrovertible. It probably underestimated the effect. But I'll not belabor the point because everyone acknowledges the effect is positive. However, your second point is erroneous. McCain's ground game was typical of most presidential campaigns. The problem was the Obama campaign's considerable numeric and qualitative advantage. They not only had a larger organization, they leveraged their field offices to target specific constituencies. And Romney's organization is not far better than McCain's. Based on a cursory review, they are roughly comparable. What is evident, though, is Obama's advantage.
My mistake. I forgot that. Could you provide the data on this? I admit my perspective on union activity is skewed by my family. So I'm curious as to what the data indicates.
Half and half
Member
Hey what a coincidence. I'm drinking some coffee too.
I'm all amped up now. My heart is set to explode if someone posts a bad poll here.
I am so confused, but if he does win AZ then oh baby my baby
There are always going to be good polls and bad polls.
metalslimer
Member
Of course that's just a sign of things to come when Arizona and Texas go blue there will be no viable for way to the GOP presidency. I'd say what about 15 more years before this happens? Of course I expect Republicans explode and rebuild before that because there positions will lose them the presidency anyway as their older base begins to die off.
O_________O that's going to be stuck inside my brain for awhile. Creepy and accurate.
PhoenixDark
Banned
I'm on my iPod right now but unions aren't doing as much early work as they did in 2008. I'd imagine Trumpka and company will get the boots on the ground on Election Day but overall the involvement hasn't been large thanks to grumbling over trade agreements and Wisconsin
Half and half
Member
I'm just playing around. I am super jazzed up on coffee though. Probably need to expend this energy on some manual labor in a bit.
imagine if on election day the bizarro trumpet sounds and obama loses iowa and ohio and wisconsin but wins texas and arizona
and then, after that, a line of flying pigs soared pleasantly across the sky as obama proceeds to announce that biden is stepping down to be replaced as romney for vice president
and then, after that, a line of flying pigs soared pleasantly across the sky as obama proceeds to announce that biden is stepping down to be replaced as romney for vice president
Aaron Strife
Banned
In 2016 we might see Arizona as a purple state. Texas probably not quite yet.
Anecdote from a volunteer in OFA's AZ offices - there are motivational posters EVERYWHERE saying AZ in 2012 = NC in 2008. It's not really considered in play by either campaign, but if any non-swing state were to flip from Romney's column to Obama's, it'd have to be Arizona.
I'm not from Arizona and never will be. I'm not believing this until I see another pollster back it up but it's still nice to see another state on TPM's map move from Romney to toss-up. I want more polls of Florida that aren't from right-wing shills.Diablos said:
Yeah, and wouldn't Obama's little mini dream act executive order really convince a lot of hispanics?
"Calm the fuck down liberals" should basically be the Democratic Parties slogan, because I've never seen as many undisciplined children gathered into one group. absolutely no self-control or understanding of political gamesmanship whatsoever
obama has a bad debate
liberals meltdown, making it a catastrophic debate
obama has a bad poll
liberals meltdown, feeding the media narrative and making it a worse poll
obama makes a political mistake
liberals meltdown, making the mistake irreversible
So is the post-debate consensus that Biden won? How can anyone find the above chump charming or likeable?
Aaron Strife
Banned
I like the result showing Carmona up 4 more. That I can believe.
PhoenixDark
Banned
A two poit outlier and you guys go crazy? Calm down lol, Obama is not winning Tea Party Central ie Arizona
I blame Chris Matthews if Obama loses.
Frank the Great
Banned
arizona going blue would completely change the game . . . obama wouldn't need ohio, virginia, colorado, or even new hampshire.
not gonna put much stock in that poll though, could easily be an outlier and way too many undecideds to mean anything. fun to think about though.
not gonna put much stock in that poll though, could easily be an outlier and way too many undecideds to mean anything. fun to think about though.
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