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PoliGAF 2012 |OT4|: Your job is not to worry about 47% of these posts.

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F

Forever

Banned
I do think that Obama can stop or even reverse some of Romney's momentum with two more strong debate performances, but if the election were next week I'd be very fucking concerned.
 
Z

Zen

Banned
*exhales* the free fall has stopped on 538. Small bump for Obama.

Election 62.9 + 3.9
Nowcast 60.0 + 1.8

EDIT: I see on the last page.

Thank god, now let's start to see some continued recovery.

I hope taking the night off on the first debate was worth it for Obama, he obliterated his margins. Yes the race would have always tightened, but had he even turned in a passable performance, nowhere near to this extent.
 
I

ivysaur12

Banned
Zen said:
*exhales* the free fall has stopped on 538. Small bump for Obama.

Election 62.9 + 3.9
Nowcast 60.0 + 1.8

EDIT: I see on the last page.

Thank god, now let's start to see some continued recovery.

I hope taking the night off on the first debate was worth it for Obama, he obliterated his margins. Yes the race would have always tightened, but had he even turned in a passable performance, nowhere near to this extent.
Click to expand...

tumblr_m561tsmNcg1rxig9eo1_500.gif
 
B

Black Mamba

Member
airmangataosenai said:
Looks like Gallup didn't reverse the way I thought it might.
Click to expand...

The LV wasn't going to move more than possibly 1. Tomorrow it should move, I believe. Same with RV which did move +1 today.

Their big jump last week was form Saturday to Sunday so we could see it move. If it shows Obama +5 RV tomorrow, it's back to pre-debate level.
 
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
Just for comparison, Gallup's RV tracker was more accurate in 2010 than the LV tracker. In a presidential election especially (where many more people show up) I can see that happening again.
 
B

Black Mamba

Member
Red Blaster said:
Bubububububububu PD and Diablos said
Click to expand...

Well, we have to wait on some state polling, like Ohio, which could move the needle back to Romney.

Though I expect the RAND and Gallup to go up tomorrow for Obama tomorrow, I expect them back down on Monday.

What we want to see is the race settle to a noticable lead for Obama without movement, again.
 
B

BotoxAgent

Member
Ok I'm at the airport right about to take my long overdue vacation in hawaii. Probably won't watch the debate but I will be keeping tabs on poligaf for the play by play. Nervous as hell. Don't ruin my vacation Barack :( I was hoping it would have been smooth sailin from now.
 
G

Gotchaye

Member
FWIW, just talked to my mom about the VP debate. She's very much a low-information voter, and typically just ends up voting for the candidate my dad prefers. She thought Biden seemed much more presidential and trustworthy than Ryan, but didn't like how he kept calling Ryan "my friend", and was put off and confused by Biden's constant laughter (she had no idea what was supposed to be so funny).
 
M

Measley

Junior Member
Isn't Virgil Goode on the presidential ballot in Virginia, and doesnt he have enough sway to really screw Romney in the state?
 
B

Black Republican

Member
Gotchaye said:
FWIW, just talked to my mom about the VP debate. She's very much a low-information voter, and typically just ends up voting for the candidate my dad prefers. She thought Biden seemed much more presidential and trustworthy than Ryan, but didn't like how he kept calling Ryan "my friend", and was put off and confused by Biden's constant laughter (she had no idea what was supposed to be so funny).
Click to expand...

i wonder if this is how Romney gets the married vote overwhelmingly?
 
T

Trurl

Banned
Red Blaster said:
Bubububububububu PD and Diablos said
Click to expand...
The night of the presidential debate I thought that little to no harm was done to the Obama campaign. Instead it seems that this race has been transformed. Even if things stabilize and the skies begin to look a little bluer, it doesn't turn people who weren't so optimistic into clowns.

Well, unless they had a hysterical freak out or something.
 
S

SouthernDragon

Member
Dreamcaster said:
I think if you were relying on a career based on government grants for green technology, you're probably right when it comes to a Romney presidency. If you really believe in green technology and think there is a way to make it economically viable for most Americans and are willing to put in the work to bring that to fruition, there is definitely money to be made there long term.

I kind of liken the green technology initiatives to the invention of the lightbulb. Yes, I think we all would like clean, infinitely available sources of energy at affordable prices, but to mandate that would be like the government mandating everyone switch to lightbulbs when they were first invented and quite expensive when people were perfectly happy using dirty, fire hazard prone candles (or kerosene), their main advantage being they were readily available and cheap. As the lightbulb was refined (without government grants) and infrastructure was put in place, first in large cities, everyone switched over and abandoned candles as their main source of artificial light.

This is likely what we'll see with green energy adoption, if I had to venture a guess. Once it's cheap enough, everyone will be on board.
Click to expand...

Actually, the technology will not reach mass market without continued government intervention. What's killed the industry, more than anything else, are the periodic massive amounts of investments that vanish after 4 years. It creates extreme booms and busts, driving away sane investors. Continued, sustained government support will put a floor under the industry, giving companies room to innovate, bring products to market, and compete.

There is definitely money to be made; depending on what aspect of the industry you are looking it it's in the high hundreds of billions over the next 10 years, and those are the lower end of the spectrum. However, without the proper economic and legal incentives people will just default to the status quo.


I do believe it's viable and economically attractive, but it does need help getting there. But that's why I said "I'd move somewhere else"; just because American politicians are too short-sighted to see the massive industry that's about to bloom in the next 15 years doesn't mean everyone else is. I could probably live in an extremely comfortable manner in East Asia or Europe with my degree.
 
R

RDreamer

Member
Measley said:
Isn't Virgil Goode on the presidential ballot in Virginia, and doesnt he have enough sway to really screw Romney in the state?
Click to expand...

He is still on the ballot, and I think he swayed some things in earlier polls. But, I'm pretty sure I saw some articles and polling showing that there was a bit of backlash from the fact that he could realistically give the presidency to Obama.
 
R

reilo

learning some important life lessons from magical Negroes
Has this been discussed back in September?

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_OH_9912.pdf

Q15 Who do you think deserves more credit for the
killing of Osama bin Laden: Barack Obama or
Mitt Romney?
Barack Obama 63%
................................................
Mitt Romney 6%
Click to expand...

Keep reading, and it states that 15% of Republicans think Romney deserves credit for the killing of bin Laden.

That's all you need to know about some polls: it's filled with a bunch of trolls.
 
B

Black Mamba

Member
reilo said:
Has this been discussed back in September?

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_OH_9912.pdf



Keep reading, and it states that 15% of Republicans think Romney deserves credit for the killing of bin Laden.

That's all you need to know about some polls: it's filled with a bunch of trolls.
Click to expand...

Yes, we discussed it. And PPP said they asked just to see if Republicans would give credit to Obama for anything and the answer was some would not.

They're not trolls, they simply are too fucked up in the head.
 
B

Black Republican

Member
interesting Ben Labolt retweeted that Arizona poll, donno if he was just doing that for tweeter feedback or something, or they feel somewhat optimistic compared to 2008
 
L

Loudninja

Member
I posted this earlier:

Ipsos VP debate breakdown
  • 90% of Registered Voters have seen, heard, or read at least something about the VP debate
  • Biden is seen to have done the better job by a margin of 7 points: 42% vs. 35% for Ryan (23% are unsure)
  • There was little change in overall favorability towards the two candidates pre- and post- debate. However, it does appear that the debate was good for the ‘party faithful’, because the proportion indicating they are ‘very favorable’ towards each man increased
  • However, the proportion saying that Romney’s selection of Ryan has made them ‘less favorable’ towards Romney increased from 21% before the debate to 27% after the debate
  • The final question asked whether Biden or Ryan is more qualified to be President, and Biden leads by 10 points (45% to 35%) - and this figure did not change significantly over the course of the debate.
Click to expand...
http://ipsos-na.com/news-polls/pressrelease.aspx?id=5822
 
F

Forever

Banned
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/10/13/mitt-romney-ad-spending_n_1963850.html

WASHINGTON -- Mitt Romney's campaign and its Republican allies are set to outspend the president's campaign and allied Democratic groups by more than $18 million on the airwaves just this week, according to data provided by a Democratic source.

The disparity, with Republicans spending $41.7 million and Democrats spending $23.5 million, illustrates a strategic gamble on behalf of the GOP presidential nominee to bury President Barack Obama and burn past him during the closing weeks of the campaign.

"Patience is a virtue," one Republican source said of the decision to hold resources until the last weeks of the campaign.

...

Combined with Romney's strong debate performance, the money being spent on the airwaves seems likely to have elevated the Republican candidate's standing nationally and in the battleground states.
Click to expand...
They've been talking about this last minute ad crush for a long time. The timing couldn't be better for them.

Averon said:
I predict Obama will be +2 in PPP's Ohio poll. Probably something like 50-48 or 49-47.
Click to expand...

I hope it's not that close. Voter suppression is a bitch.
 
F

Forever

Banned
markatisu said:
Ad spending did not help Romney in the Primaries, it has not helped him so far in the General, its wasted money at this point imho
Click to expand...

At a time when voter attitudes seem to be shifting, I don't think it's wasted money at all. They're capitalizing on an opening.
 
O

Officerrob

Banned
Forever said:
They've been talking about this last minute ad crush for a long time. The timing couldn't be better for them.
Click to expand...

We swing staters have been crushed under ads since the summer (especially from GOP super-pacs), more ads at this point is going to do close to nothing.
 
O

Officerrob

Banned
Forever said:
At a time when voter attitudes seem to be shifting, I don't think it's wasted money at all. They're capitalizing on an opening.
Click to expand...

Where do you live? Here in Virginia it's been virtually impossible to go a single commercial break without an ad from Romney or a super-pac for months (lots of times I get two per break), more ads at this point is basically worthless
 
K

kingkitty

Member
The joy of being in a blue state gives me security to vote for that Jill Stein character. Cmon greens, lets get that 1 percent vote woo~
 
G

Godslay

Banned
Officerrob said:
Where do you live? Here in Virginia it's been virtually impossible to go a single commercial break without an ad from Romney or a super-pac for months (lots of times I get two per break), more ads at this point is basically worthless
Click to expand...

It definitely seems like they reach a saturation point, and they become less effective.
 
D

Diablos

Member
Y2Kev said:
Dude, PPP is going to be less than Obama + 5. No gloat plz
Click to expand...
Thank you.

I'm expecting +1-2. Maybe 3 if we're lucky.

And then the nowcast gets all depressing again, woo.

And yeah considering Romney did fuck all in September he basically can spend money wherever he wants, whenever he wants, as much as he wants.
 
A

Averon

Member
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