Bam Bam Baklava
Member
Also showed Romney's bounce fading.
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PoliGAF 2012 |OT4|: Your job is not to worry about 47% of these posts.
- Thread starter Amir0x
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Also showed Romney's bounce fading.
This exactly. It also raises the question as to why he didn't move to the center earlier.
hydragonwarrior
Member
Plz meme this
Man anyone else getting wrecked on Intrade? I bought at 6.58, Obama stock dropped massively this morning (like 5 different rise and falls) to as low as like 6.25 so I sold at 6.50 to buy low, and now Obama stock back at 6.60.
If I would've gotten in earlier, could've made good profit. If I would've waited, would've lost less. In the end, I'm probably just going to lose a couple of dollars, but it's super frustrating to watch the market and expect something only for the complete opposite to happen. I guess the market's responding to the recent polls- but the market doesn't seem to respond the way I expect.
If I would've gotten in earlier, could've made good profit. If I would've waited, would've lost less. In the end, I'm probably just going to lose a couple of dollars, but it's super frustrating to watch the market and expect something only for the complete opposite to happen. I guess the market's responding to the recent polls- but the market doesn't seem to respond the way I expect.
NullPointer
Member
BrokenEchelon
Banned
I wonder how much more aggressive Obama will become during a second term. It seems fairly likely that he has this in the bag, regardless of the debate. It also seems more than likely that the Senate will keep the majority whilst the House will remain in the hands of the GOP.
So if nothing changes in Congress and the White House in terms of control, how much will Obama be able to accomplish with another four years of stonewalling from Congress?
So if nothing changes in Congress and the White House in terms of control, how much will Obama be able to accomplish with another four years of stonewalling from Congress?
Dominican Power
Member
Obama needs to change the perception that he doesn't like to work with anyone in Congress, including Democrats.
You seem really terrible at this. Whether you get in at 6.2 or 6.8, who cares? Just hold until after the election and take your 10.
I was about to say, it's been at 6 all day -- surely that's not significant either way?
I don't play the Intrade game, because it's silly to me, but it just seems like it's not doing much of anything right now other than keeping Obama's chances in the mid/high 60's.
Bullshit. The only place where that exist is in the minds of Republican morons.
In the real world? It doesn't exist.
probably not much, but if the democrats can get it close, there may be some cooperation if it's looking like the tea party is getting too out of control for the establishment, or if the establishment feels they need to reevaluate where they've gotten.
We should never ever take Ras polls seriously
Byakuya769
Member
Are you noise trading? You using technical analysis? Why aren't you buying for the event you think will happen and holding until election?
Been thinking of setting up an Intrade account. Are you American? How hard was it to get the account funded?
speculawyer
Member
I don't think they should ever be taken seriously. I think they take a poll and then decide what number what number within their margin of error (or barely outside it) would best suit the narrative they want to push.
TacticalFox88
Banned
If the Dems do take the House and gain seats in the majority, I can almost guarantee that Obama is going to be in a "Fuck the GOP" mood.
He might offer a chance a cooperation, but if they bite his hand, he'll probably just say fuck it and ram what he wants through.
The only problem is getting the Dems to fall in line. For all their faults, one cannot say that the Dems are a herd of sheep that follow the party blindly.
Maybe he thinks Romney will win?
Except for when it shows Obama ahead, right?
Sums up the Romney campaign nicely. Romney had a foreign policy speech today to call obama weak without any difference in actual policy outside of spending more money for submarines.
You'd think so but this says otherwise
http://electoralmap.net/2012/2008_election.php
They seem to be legit in October lol
Except for when it shows Obama ahead, right?
Nope not even then, their polls have not been accurate for years
TacticalFox88
Banned
Soledad O'Brien <3
I still can't believe she's 46, gawwdamn.
I still can't believe she's 46, gawwdamn.
No but when you basically swap your polling every few days to what the general consensus is you are going to look pretty good at it.
Aaron Strife
Banned
All the polls are inaccurate except for Rasmussen!
Fuck! NOT THEM TOO!
Heh, they even have Democrats leading by 1 point in the generic ballot - 44-43. The House race tends to break late, hopefully Democrats have enough momentum to give them a definitive win.
I feel bad for Romney surrogates who aren't Newt and Sunnounojnunununooononono. They can handle lying and being slightly racist well, but the woman in that Soledad video just wasn't able to handle questions well. She should have said a President shouldn't be too lazy and distracted to get peace in the middle east accomplished.
Because 100 shares at 6.80 is a lot different than 6.20. If you buy 100 shares at 6.80, you have $680 worth. You would win $1000 when Obama wins. What if you knew the stocks were about to drop to $6.20 and sold them all at $6.80? You'd be able to buy 109 shares of Obama at $6.20 and make $1090. Some would say it's only $90, but if you think of ROI, it's quite a bit higher. You're looking at 147% of your initial bet vs 160%.
I'm keeping up with the polls and how the market reacts to those polls. I'm also keeping in mind trends and future events. For example, I think Obama's stock will drop lower up until the next debate because the only thing the media has to talk about is the previous debate and that wasn't a positive event for Obama. Of course positive polls for Obama and Romney's debate bounce going away should offset that, but Obama's stock shouldn't reach the highs it was at following all of the good news.
Easy assuming you don't mind paying the cost. The member I went through got a certain percentage of how much I put in because I didn't want to do a wire transfer or mail a check (would take too long).
And I don't think Romney's going to win. I just know that Intrade has a Conservative bias so I've been watching how they treat the news and they overreact when Romney does well and disregard when Obama does well (generally).
eBay Huckster
Member
I wonder what Diablos thought about this.
Oh, right: crickets when he can't chicken little.
(and then he still managed to do that afterward :lol)
The Librarian
Banned
Whoops I didn't respond 100% accurately on my last reply. I've been following Intrade's Closing Prices charts and Times and Sales charts to analyze how the market responds to certain events.
eBay Huckster
Member
61% is actually less than I'd expect
In your case, I really would advise just holding your shares and forgetting about them.
thezerofire
Banned
what's this about?
Half and half
Member
Well over half. Is it fair to generalize these people?
Yeah, I know. But I heard that in October Rass stops being a narrative poll pusher and start accurately polling what's actually happening.
MasterShotgun
brazen editing lynx
Why can't we just round up all the best journalists/hosts from each news channel and stick them on one single channel? The other channels can still bitch and moan about whatever they want, and we can tune in to that perfect channel to get some real news.
*facepalm*
What's bad is that I almost expect this now.
Future PhaZe
Member
Am I the only dem who's slightly entertaining the idea of voting for Romney.
As much of a liar he is I don't really give a shit, that's politics, he seems ballsy enough and isn't actually bat shit insane like Bush, and his ability to not get everything **** blocked by Republicans is really attractive from a change standpoint.
As much of a liar he is I don't really give a shit, that's politics, he seems ballsy enough and isn't actually bat shit insane like Bush, and his ability to not get everything **** blocked by Republicans is really attractive from a change standpoint.
It's not a big deal. This is all for fun for me anyway. I just think it's fun to try to predict the market and figure out how populations respond to certain stimuli. If shares shot all the way up to $8/share (unlikely unless Romney kills a baby) I'd still come out with a good sized profit.
I'm not so worried that I'm going to lose money on this. I'm moreso frustrated that my predictions of the market are off. As long as I come out ahead (and shares would have to shoot up to like $9 each for that to not happen), I'm good to go.
EDIT: The 'Game' for me is finding out how each event affects real people. People who actually have a dog in this fight. Job numbers are out. Are people scared? Do they not care? To what degree? How fast will it take them to shake it off?
How can people be so stupid?
If you're a democrat who is looking for "change," realistically, what kind of positive "change" do you expect from a Romney administration? If you wanted "change" from Obama and you feel you did not get it, then what would a Romney administration do for you that an Obama one couldn't?
He's not batshit insane like Bush but his party is, and if he wins he'll be working with Republicans who share those batshit views. He'll cave.
This is a man who will say anything to get elected. He abandoned his far right platform for the sake of having a good debate, now he's doubling down on Bush-like foreign policy. This guy will gravitate towards whatever keeps his poll numbers as high as they can possibly be. He's untrustworthy.
All Presidential candidates/Presidents pander to some extent, but Romney's entire platform is a different lie every day.
Joe Shlabotnik
Banned
I think it's still too early. Maybe a week or two before the election when they decide to look respectable for "last poll before the election" results.
Half and half
Member
Repealing ObamaCare or escalating tensions with Iran are bad policy imo. He might be bluffing, but I'll take him at his word on those.
Mercury Fred
Banned
Are you kidding me?
If for no other reason, the appointment of SC justices should make voting for Obama a no brainier.
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