let's see your numbers, son.
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PoliGAF 2012 |OT4|: Your job is not to worry about 47% of these posts.
- Thread starter Amir0x
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eBay Huckster
Member
they're in the same place you can find rasmussen's crosstabs
Black Mamba
Member
this is hilarious because on my previous post I was actually doing the math.
And I came to about the same conclusion - that the Sunday polling was around +13 for Obama. I deleted the post because I thought it looked crazy and made a simpler post.
I was also wondering if the 5th/6th were more like +9 and +8 for Obama, but too lazy to look up the previous gallup polls to confirm.
Are you basing your comment off of anything besides the PPP tweet? A vague reference to polling numbers from last month compared to now doesn't exactly offer clear pre/post numbers for comparison.
eBay Huckster
Member
I don't think anyone other than PPP is even polling Minnesota right now, so it probably has to be based on that PPP tweet
their last poll had O+7 (lower end of SurveyUSA and MasonDixon, too), this probably indicates O+8 to O+11
Byakuya769
Member
57-38 is bad news for Obama. That is a a clear outlier and is what is affecting the post-debate bump. Fuck.
It should be interesting. Is the ending of gridlock with some possibly good legislation, mixed in with plenty of bad, worth those Supreme Court Justices and possibly a new war or two?
I used to think Romney might (maaaybe) govern as a centrist, depending on the makeup of his Congress, but I don't know what to think after his Paul Ryan pick. That's one of the things that scares me most about him. I have no clue what he'll actually do because he's promised every person something different.
I see you're trolling again.
Uh, I'm not trying to challenge anyone. I'm just asking what he was basing his comment off of. I guessed the PPP tweet but, since that was so vague, I was asking if he was referring to something else.
lol
Back at square one.
I'm just joking. Anyone who challenges a lot of the blind optimism in here gets shot down.
cartoon_soldier
Member
There is a reason tracking polls don't release individual daily numbers. Ignore them.
O+5 today is good for him though.
The lack of swing state polls is annoying
O+5 today is good for him though.
The lack of swing state polls is annoying
My sunday crosstabs were at 56-42, obama. Although since my data also incorporates social media im almost convinced that romney's numbers are skewed a point or two due to lingering effects of debate.
By lingering effects, i mean ridicule
eBay Huckster
Member
...blind optimism about Minnesota, a state that's never been closer than lean Obama all cycle?
eBay Huckster
Member
speaking of this guy, looks like his favorables are in the general region of 30/55 now
Aaron Strife
Banned
I like Ventura well enough though he's gotten progressively crazier since he left.
Bachmann represents the most Republican district in the state and even then never wins an outright victory. That ain't even fair.
AlteredBeast
Fork 'em, Sparky!
Not if Ike had an obvious damn-near certain win and 1 billion dollars.
Are you comfortable with a politician (that you admittedly like) spending your money on fundraising efforts, advertising, etc?
If you want to do some good, at least you could donate your money to Cyan's favorite charity. That will do some good, this will do absolutely nothing for anyone, yourself included.
Future PhaZe
Member
Yea foreign policy is a big sticking point for me. I actually think Romney has more potential to improve the economy than Bams, but I'm not sure if it's worth the possibility of him pandering to the right on FP concerns...
Black Mamba
Member
I kind of liked Ventura when he first came around. But then he went crazy, became a 9/11 truther, etc.
Souldriver
Member
Woww!
I don't think I've ever seen such competent reporting from an American news channel. She really did her job well. She wasn't even 'attacking' the surrogate, she was just asking to clarify, and called out every possible dismissal or diversion from the surrogate. Really, the last 15 seconds of that video are amazing.
The fact that I'm not even gushing over the reporter because she did some investigative reporting, but simply because she didn't play along this shitty game, is sad on itself though...
This is the math I did too (and another junior), but his conclusion is totally unjustified, really. Remember that all these averages are rounded -- and that is highly likely to include the individual results of each day's polls, so there's actually decimal-level data that we never get to see. Check it:
Sep 30: 50.4
Oct 1: 50.5
Oct 2: 50.5
Oct 3: 53.3
Oct 4: 47.5
Oct 5: 47.5
Oct 6: 47.4
Oct 7: 53.3
Sept 30-Oct 2 average: 50
Oct 4-Oct 6 average: 47
Sep 30-Oct 6 average: 49
Oct 1-Oct 7 average: 50
I mean, it's definitely a good poll, but it doesn't have to be as good as 57%.
cartoon_soldier
Member
Pew: Romney 49 - Obama 45
http://www.people-press.org/2012/10/08/romneys-strong-debate-performance-erases-obamas-lead/
Ouch...Pew's supposed to be pretty fucking good.
http://www.people-press.org/2012/10/08/romneys-strong-debate-performance-erases-obamas-lead/
Ouch...Pew's supposed to be pretty fucking good.
StickSoldier
Member
So Obama people should be worried or what?
Black Mamba
Member
lol, a 12 point switch in the Pew poll. Bullshit.
This is the problem with polling after an event like the debate. The Repubs are way too enthusiastic in answering the phones all of a sudden.
Not unless it continues at the end of the week. But Gallup and Ras are both showing Obama winning by more, not the other way around. PPP indicated pre-debate back in Sat/Sun polling.
The Pew poll is probably heavily skewed by Thurs/Fri numbers.
This is the problem with polling after an event like the debate. The Repubs are way too enthusiastic in answering the phones all of a sudden.
Not unless it continues at the end of the week. But Gallup and Ras are both showing Obama winning by more, not the other way around. PPP indicated pre-debate back in Sat/Sun polling.
The Pew poll is probably heavily skewed by Thurs/Fri numbers.
Actually it is fair; State Fair, ZING!
Yes. He could probably recover if there weren't three more debates coming up he and Biden will probably lose.
Black Mamba
Member
No data that includes Thursday and Friday is worth looking at right now because all the other polling is saying it's switching back.
Unless Pew releases a daily aspect, we have no idea if there's is holding or if Romney was +8 +6 -2, -4.
Yeah this is pretty much BS... would like to see the Party ID.
edit: 35% R, 32% D, 30% I is what they have for LV
NullPointer
Member
PhoenixDark
Banned
eBay Huckster
Member
Anyone want to find 2010 party ID so we can... unskew this?
Do you sniff your own farts?
NullPointer
Member
Did you read Sullivan this weekend? Behind the Obama Implosion.
Black Mamba
Member
http://www.people-press.org/obama-romney-voter-preferences/#all-registered-voters
LOL @ hispanic vote being not shown. they apparently didn't poll hispanics?
there is no way Obama is getting less than 50% of the female vote. This is crazy.
TacticalFox88
Banned
I look forward to what direction your shtick takes when Obama wins comfortably.
PhoenixDark
Banned
I guess party ID isn't a fluctuating thing when Obama is losing, huh. Clearly their breakdown is wrong/tampered with to produce this result!
Don't anyone pull the skewed card. You can't mock those last week then do the same thing.
Btw Chuck Todd has said Pew is one the gold standard polls. Pew knows their stuff.
Black Mamba
Member
This is terrible news.
They have no hispanics in this poll. Think about that.
Romney at 45% of the youth vote.
This poll should be seen as a red flag. This look's like Pew outlier for the election, helped by the crazy Thurs/Fri polling for romney.
eBay Huckster
Member
So a net +3 with Republicans, net -1 with Democrats, and net +5 with independents is enough to swing his numbers around 12%?
So they're expecting Hispanics to make up 5% of the electorate when they made up 9% in 2008 and their voter base has only increased?
So Romney just wiped out an 18% lead with women with one debate?
So they're expecting Hispanics to make up 5% of the electorate when they made up 9% in 2008 and their voter base has only increased?
So Romney just wiped out an 18% lead with women with one debate?
electricpirate
Member
I thought the Romney surrogate was about to start crying there. I almost feel bad for her, it was like she was sent out there as a meat shield for Romney's shitty policies.
...
It means this chapter isn't fully written yet.
Like I said we have to wait for this week to play out. Obama's in some trouble, that's for sure.
RustyNails
Member
Bad news for Obama.
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