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[Black Mamba]

Wait...the poll went from 50-45 to 47-47 to Romney up 2 in the span of 1 day?

No, they switched from a Registered Voter Model to a Likely Voter Model which almost always leans Repub (RV leans Dem, truth in the middle).

In the RV model Obama is +3. There's a 5 point discrepancy between the 2. LV models are often quite a bit off until election day is almost here because people really don't disclose the truth well, here. And I don't mean on purpose, people simply change their mind about voting come the final week, often.

 

[RiccochetJ]

You've been a good sport and some people have been aggressive. That said, you'll need to bring more substance to the debate (i can't word this without sounding glib sorry).

ED: I really feel like you ignored some very pointed questions and glossed over some important counterpoints. However given that it's basically all against one you don't exactly have the ability to respond to all points, but some are more important to address than others.

Could you clarify? I will go into certain questions deeper.

 

[ryutaro's mama]

No, they switched from a Registered Voter Model to a Likely Voter Model which almost always leans Repub (RV leans Dem, truth in the middle).

In the RV model Obama is +3. There's a 5 point discrepancy between the 2. LV models are often quite a bit off until election day is almost here because people really don't disclose the truth well, here. And I don't mean on purpose, people simply change their mind about voting come the final week, often.

So does Gallup show him up by 2 points in the LV poll then, i.e. Obama is trailing now?

 

[pigeon]

Nah, no one is driving me off. I'm just getting more responses than I'm used to is all

Edit: IMO no one is being rude. It's a good debate.

My advice from my experience being "dogpiled" occasionally in OT is not to try to respond to everybody individually at all -- there's too many of them, and if you give it a few minutes and come back, it becomes clear that everybody is basically asking a slight variation on the same question. I find it more effective to write up one slightly lengthy response, then reload the thread before I actually post it to see if there's anything I want to incorporate and answer. Saves me having to edit like thirty times, which is what I end up doing otherwise.

Also, I really want to know how you got banned before even posting, Oblivion.

 

[Oblivion]

Also, I really want to know how you got banned before even posting, Oblivion.

Preeeeeeeeeeeetty sure it was due to my handle: Palin Jr.

 

[Plinko]

Why does Mitt dislike kids



Really kind of sad that they won't do this. I think I remember this when I was a kid.

Out of all the crappy things Mitt does (flip-flopping, lying, hating on the middle-income Americans) this thing and the comment from his son irritates me the most.

The guy is purely a douche. He raised his sons to be douches.

 

[Zabka]

Could you clarify? I will go into certain questions deeper.

Why would the tax rate on corporate profits affect hiring new employees? Money spent on new hires isn't taxed.

A lot of this stuff goes out the window with large corporations. They manage to get away with all kinds of nonsense.

 

[Brawndo Addict]

Nah, no one is driving me off. I'm just getting more responses than I'm used to is all

Now that I've thought about it some more I think this is a frustrating structural problem with this thread. Any conservative is going to be heavily outnumbered just in terms of pure volume of posts/ideas they have to deal with. Ignoring the actual content of posts for the moment, it's impossible for them to engage every poster, let alone get a handle on all the competing arguments and ideas being thrown around. It's never a pleasant experience to be the only one arguing something against a crowd, regardless of the quality of content.

Not sure if there's an actual solution to any of that or how true it may though.

 

[Black Mamba]

So does Gallup show him up by 2 points in the LV poll then, i.e. Obama is trailing now?

Gallup has Romney up 2 in the LV model, Obama up 3 in the RV model.

And ABC poll came out showing Obama Favorable +11 and Romney -4.

RAND ticked up a bit for Obama. Ras still has it as a tie.

Basically, not much has happened. Still some indication the bounce is receding, but don't know for sure.

 

[RDreamer]

Now that I've thought about it some more I think this is a frustrating structural problem with this thread. Any conservative is going to be heavily outnumbered just in terms of pure volume of posts/ideas they have to deal with. Ignoring the actual content of posts for the moment, it's impossible for them to engage every poster, let alone get a handle on all the competing arguments and ideas being thrown around. It's never a pleasant experience to be the only one arguing something against a crowd, regardless of the quality of content.

Not sure if there's an actual solution to any of that or how true it may though.

Libgaf, I think we need to elect a representative.

 

[RiccochetJ]

Why would the tax rate on corporate profits affect hiring new employees? Money spent on new hires isn't taxed.

Money spent on hiring and training a new employee is clearly detrimental to profits! The idea is that down the line that they will make more money than you're spending on them.

When it comes to IT and DBA's you're working off of the idea that they will prevent downtime where you could lose millions of dollars.

IT is an expense where if you're big enough, you need.

 

[Oblivion]

Libgaf, I think we need to elect a representative.

What about an ambassador?

 

[RDreamer]

What about an ambassador?

Let's be democratic about this. Perhaps we should take a vote on whether we need an ambassador or a representative.

Money spent on hiring and training a new employee is clearly detrimental to profits! The idea is that down the line that they will make more money than you're spending on them.

When it comes to IT and DBA's you're working off of the idea that they will prevent downtime where you could lose millions of dollars.

IT is an expense where if you're big enough, you need.

Ok, and now relate this to taxes for us.

 

[BrokenEchelon]

Let's be democratic about this. Perhaps we should take a vote on whether we need an ambassador or a representative.

I prefer Emissary.

 

[Forever]

Libgaf, I think we need to elect a representative.

I nominate myself.

 

[RDreamer]

I prefer Emissary.

Sorry, voting for a 3rd party at this point is just throwing away your vote.

 

[ryutaro's mama]

Gallup has Romney up 2 in the LV model, Obama up 3 in the RV model.

And ABC poll came out showing Obama Favorable +11 and Romney -4.

RAND ticked up a bit for Obama. Ras still has it as a tie.

Basically, not much has happened. Still some indication the bounce is receding, but don't know for sure.

Thanks for the recap.

I appreciate it a lot.

Also, what happened to Jordan Hill is EXACTLY why Dwight needs to sits as long as he needs too.

 

[Black Mamba]

Money spent on hiring and training a new employee is clearly detrimental to profits! The idea is that down the line that they will make more money than you're spending on them.

When it comes to IT and DBA's you're working off of the idea that they will prevent downtime where you could lose millions of dollars.

IT is an expense where if you're big enough, you need.

And income tax policy has no effect on this.

Thing is, when a company does profit maximization, income taxes aka taxes on profits should have no input. It's intuitive when you realize how, at least mathematically, companies profit maximize.

 

[jbug617]

Thanks for the recap.

I appreciate it a lot.

Also, what happened to Jordan Hill is EXACTLY why Dwight needs to sits as long as he needs too.

Also some guy from Suffolk said on O' Reilly that Romney is going to win VA, FL and NC. They are no longer going to poll there.

 

[ryutaro's mama]

Also some guy from Suffolk said on O' Reilly that Romney is going to win VA, FL and NC. They are no longer going to poll there.

I stopped reading right there.

 

[RiccochetJ]

And income tax policy has no effect on this.

Thing is, when a company does profit maximization, income taxes aka taxes on profits should have no input. It's intuitive when you realize how, at least mathematically, companies profit maximize.

Income tax has an absolute effect when you look at it mathematically.

"Oh hey look, since the taxes I have less money and despite what I want, I'm not going to hire!"

 

[RDreamer]

Income tax has an absolute effect when you look at it mathematically.

"Oh hey look, since the taxes I have less money and despite what I want, I'm not going to hire!"

Despite what they want or despite demand?

And again, you do realize that companies are taxed on profit not revenue, right?

 

[Brawndo Addict]

Could you clarify? I will go into certain questions deeper.

On further review of the thread, I don't think that was necessarily a fair appraisal. If I was to correct myself I would say:

By substance I mean people are going to want numbers, studies, things of that nature. It's rather easy for the liberal side to crowd-source that kind of information because there is so many people, but ideally you'll want to have at least a conception of the studies you remember reading about so you can post the gist, and then look for it if pressed for more details.

In terms of overlooked issues, I think a lot of posters really wanted you to be more direct about refuting their arguments that historical evidence suggest tax cuts do not have a clear impact on economic growth (Reagan/Bush). You got a little sidetracked talking about the role of government when this part hit its stride.

And some people were concerned you were conflating taxable income with revenue, and since this is one of the central issues in play, you'll want to be extra clear on what you understand and are arguing for.

 

[Mario]

Why does Mitt dislike kids

Really kind of sad that they won't do this. I think I remember this when I was a kid.

I look forward to the Fox and Friends crew adding this to their list of appearances that Obama is "wasting his time" doing such as The View, Letterman, the Reddit AMA, the Jay Z and Beyonce fundraiser, and Entertainment Tonight, while continuing to refuse "enough" invitations to "serious" interviews such Fox News.

Yes, Gretchen Carlson, why is Obama wasting his time reaching out to women, youth, families, minorities and "average Americans" when he could just be focused on old, "serious" white people?

 

[RiccochetJ]

Despite what they want or despite demand?

And again, you do realize that companies are taxed on profit not revenue, right?

Because sales tax doesn't apply right?

 

[Sirpopopop]

Why don't we invade Hannity's forums?

 

[RDreamer]

Why don't we invade Hannity's forums?

Because I'm pretty sure invading forums is against the rules here?

And because I'd rather not subject myself to that.

 

[RiccochetJ]

On further review of the thread, I don't think that was necessarily a fair appraisal. If I was to correct myself I would say:

By substance I mean people are going to want numbers, studies, things of that nature. It's rather easy for the liberal side to crowd-source that kind of information because there is so many people, but ideally you'll want to have at least a conception of the studies you remember reading about so you can post the gist, and then look for it if pressed for more details.

In terms of overlooked issues, I think a lot of posters really wanted you to be more direct about refuting their arguments that historical evidence suggest tax cuts do not have a clear impact on economic growth (Reagan/Bush). You got a little sidetracked talking about the role of government when this part hit its stride.

And some people were concerned you were conflating taxable income with revenue, and since this is one of the central issues in play, you'll want to be extra clear on what you understand and are arguing for.

If anything he should have doubled down. Thatcher went all out. I was in England and you could eat off the floors. I asked the manager and he said, "Thatcher".

I'm sure I'm going to get eaten alive from UK GAF.

 

[Joe Shlabotnik]

Oh, we've stopped freaking out about polls?

I'm still freaking out. Somebody hold me. =(

Don't worry, Josh Marshall just made a terrifyingly salient point that conservatives were so thrilled to see Romney deliver the Gingrich-esque debate beating on Obama they've all been fantasizing about that they don't even give a shit about him veering hard to the center now.

Aw crap that was the exact opposite of what you wanted to hear

 

[cartoon_soldier]

Umm...what?

Pollster David Paleologos of Suffolk University told Bill O'Reilly that his organization will not be doing any further polls in Florida, North Carolina and Virginia because he believes President Obama has no chance to win those states.

http://politicalwire.com/archives/2012/10/09/pollster_says_obama_cant_win_fl_nc_and_va.html#050759a

 

[XenodudeX]

Umm...what?



http://politicalwire.com/archives/2012/10/09/pollster_says_obama_cant_win_fl_nc_and_va.html#050759a

No money. No polling.

 

[ryutaro's mama]

Umm...what?



http://politicalwire.com/archives/2012/10/09/pollster_says_obama_cant_win_fl_nc_and_va.html#050759a

Pretty slick way to try to discourage Dems from voting from in those states.

Spread the "fact" that the race there is already over.

 

[Sirpopopop]

Because I'm pretty sure invading forums is against the rules here?

And because I'd rather not subject myself to that.

The former makes sense.

 

[teh_pwn]

I nominate myself.

I nominate blame space. He knows how to communicate with the common folk.

 

[RDreamer]

Pretty slick way to try to discourage Dems from voting from in those states.

Spread the "fact" that the race there is already over.

So you're saying this guy's literally doing what the Republicans were accusing other pollsters were doing with their skewing?

Not shitting you, some people on Fox News said it was voter suppression.

Because sales tax doesn't apply right?

Where are you going with this? You didn't answer my question.

 

[Snake]

Umm...what?



http://politicalwire.com/archives/2012/10/09/pollster_says_obama_cant_win_fl_nc_and_va.html#050759a

It is patently absurd to think that Obama "can't win Florida and Virginia now." North Carolina you could possibly make an argument for depending on how polling unfolds this week, but the turnout operations Obama has built in Virginia and Florida are immense. I can't view the video right now, so I can't tell whether the guy was being melodramatic or was telling O'Reilly what he wanted to hear.

 

[Black Mamba]

Income tax has an absolute effect when you look at it mathematically.

"Oh hey look, since the taxes I have less money and despite what I want, I'm not going to hire!"

But companies don't set prices and quantity by tax policy, they set marginal revenues to marginal supply.

here is an example.

You earn $100k profit. It cost you $10k to hire a new person and he produces revenues of $30k. You are now taxed at 10% of profits ($10k currently) and let's say all non-worker costs from added production is $5k (more supply = more shipping or something).

An extra worker would net you $15k pre-tax and you pay $1500 of that in taxes leaving you at $13.5k in added pre-tax profit. Now you earn $115k in pre-tax profits and $103.5k in total take home money.

So you obviously hire this new person.


Now, let's say I double the taxes to 20% of increased income. Well, you pay $20k in taxes. The worker still provides the same stuff. Now you still earn $15k pre-tax but pay $3k in taxes leaving you with $12k in taxes on the new income.

Your pre-tax profits go from $80k to $92k.

you still hire a new worker. Your profits are smaller but your decision is unchanged. You are trying to profit maximize, not tax minimize!

The taxes don't affect this, mathematically. They can't, because they are taxed on profits, not revenues. And the first rule is you set marginal revenues to marginal costs and income taxes play no part in either (other taxes do, however, like property and sales).


And let's say I don't have the money to hire a new person. Well then, I'll borrow it if it still nets me profit, right? Why wouldn't I?

 

[ryutaro's mama]

So you're saying this guy's literally doing what the Republicans were accusing other pollsters were doing with their skewing?

Well, no legitimate pollster would discontinue polling in areas that are still hotly contested, with 3 debates to go, and and the incumbent leading, based on some bullshit bu-bu-bu-but he hasn't gotten over 47% so he's gonna eventually lose nonsense.

Not saying Romney can't win but to discontinue polling under those circumstances is laughable.

So Mamba, Romney broke the 47% barrier you spoke about before.

What do you make of this?

 

[Aaron Strife]

Umm...what?

http://politicalwire.com/archives/2012/10/09/pollster_says_obama_cant_win_fl_nc_and_va.html#050759a

(Virginia poll comes out showing Obama with a lead)

"Yup, no way he can win there, no siree bob."

Idiots.

I could actually understand North Carolina - while it's a toss-up, it's not a very important one, since if Obama wins it means he's probably sweeping everywhere else. No one should be saying with certainty that FL and VA will go for Romney.

 

[Black Mamba]

Well, no legitimate pollster would discontinue polling in areas that are still hotly contested, with 3 debates to go, and and the incumbent leading, based on some bullshit bu-bu-bu-but he hasn't gotten over 47% so he's gonna eventually lose nonsense.

Not saying Romney can't win but to discontinue polling under those circumstances is laughable.

So Mamba, Romney broke the 47% barrier you spoke about before.

What do you make of this?

Yeah, I didn't see that happening in Gallup right now, but it also has the bounces in there. Like I said, if it holds come end of the week, then it would be time to realize there might be s shift.

Because sales tax doesn't apply right?

Sales taxes have a definite affect on business decisions. It is a different process from income taxes because sales taxes affect revenues.

 

[RDreamer]

Well, no legitimate pollster would discontinue polling in areas that are still hotly contested, with 3 debates to go, and and the incumbent leading, based on some bullshit bu-bu-bu-but he hasn't gotten over 47% so he's gonna eventually lose nonsense.

Oh I agree. I should have been clearer. I wasn't saying your assertion was ridiculous. I was kind of laughing that this guy seems to be literally trying to do the thing the Republicans thought other pollsters were doing. Maybe he thought it was a good idea? lol

 

[markatisu]

Umm...what?

http://politicalwire.com/archives/2012/10/09/pollster_says_obama_cant_win_fl_nc_and_va.html#050759a

Well he was on FOX so take that into context, did you see the FOX Map from earlier lol. That network is full on parallel universe right now

 

[Byakuya769]

Now that I've thought about it some more I think this is a frustrating structural problem with this thread. Any conservative is going to be heavily outnumbered just in terms of pure volume of posts/ideas they have to deal with. Ignoring the actual content of posts for the moment, it's impossible for them to engage every poster, let alone get a handle on all the competing arguments and ideas being thrown around. It's never a pleasant experience to be the only one arguing something against a crowd, regardless of the quality of content.

Not sure if there's an actual solution to any of that or how true it may though.

People just need to not be so quick to type up posts disapproving the new guy. Read the post and refresh the thread. Now, did three posters already respond to the new conservative on the scene? If they did, CHILL.

 

[RiccochetJ]

But companies don't set prices and quantity by tax policy, they set marginal revenues to marginal supply.

here is an example.

You earn $100k profit. It cost you $10k to hire a new person and he produces revenues of $30k. You are now taxed at 10% of profits ($10k currently) and let's say all non-worker costs from added production is $5k (more supply = more shipping or something).

An extra worker would net you $15k pre-tax and you pay $1500 of that in taxes leaving you at $13.5k in added pre-tax profit. Now you earn $115k in pre-tax profits and $103.5k in total take home money.

So you obviously hire this new person.


Now, let's say I double the taxes to 20% of increased income. Well, you pay $20k in taxes. The worker still provides the same stuff. Now you still earn $15k pre-tax but pay $3k in taxes leaving you with $12k in taxes on the new income.

Your pre-tax profits go from $80k to $92k.

you still hire a new worker. Your profits are smaller but your decision is unchanged. You are trying to profit maximize, not tax minimize!

The taxes don't affect this, mathematically. They can't, because they are taxed on profits, not revenues. And the first rule is you set marginal revenues to marginal costs and income taxes play no part in either (other taxes do, however, like property and sales).


And let's say I don't have the money to hire a new person. Well then, I'll borrow it if it still nets me profit, right? Why wouldn't I?

Excellent post. Good god. I tip my hat to you.

 

[ryutaro's mama]

Well he was on FOX so take that into context, did you see the FOX Map from earlier lol. That network is full on parallel universe right now

They have to excite the base and this type of stuff works. They need voters to hit the polls on election day with the thought that "Hey, we can win this thing!"

The Left on the other hand, starts whining on national TV (I'm looking at you, Chris Matthews and Ed Schultz).

Listen to Obama: "DON'T BOO, VOTE."

 

[Averon]

Well, no legitimate pollster would discontinue polling in areas that are still hotly contested, with 3 debates to go, and and the incumbent leading, based on some bullshit bu-bu-bu-but he hasn't gotten over 47% so he's gonna eventually lose nonsense.

What makes this decision ever worse is that their own polling had Obama up in VA and FL. Yes, they were small leads and were made pre-debate, but Obama was still up; both states are still very much hotly contested. I can sorta understand his reasoning for stop polling NC, but VA and FL are far from a done deal in either direction. What happens if on election day Obama wins one or both states? Suffolk is putting their credibility on the line here by announcing a winner for these states when there's still debates and campaigning to do.

 

[HylianTom]

People just need to not be so quick to type up posts disapproving the new guy. Read the post and refresh the thread. Now, did three posters already respond to the new conservative on the scene? If they did, CHILL.

This. This is pretty much why I'm not going to argue all that much around here. There are always multiple others who are faster on their keyboards making points similar to what my argument would be. I always cringe when I see a pile-on, especially on sane Republicans.

 

[RDreamer]

The Economist polled economists and it seems they prefer Obama

 

[Sirpopopop]

The Economist polled economists and it seems they prefer Obama

Skewed polling.

 

[SmokeMaxX]

The Economist polled economists and it seems they prefer Obama

The Economist -> media -> therefore, liberal -> can't trust.