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[Black Mamba]

The most that I take away from that is that a ton of economists have left the Republican party!

Less than 10% with all those indies! What a shift.

 

[ryutaro's mama]

The most that I take away from that is that a ton of economists have left the Republican party!

Less than 10% with all those indies! What a shift.

Doesn't the fact that there is only 10% Republicans point to the the unfair weighting of the poll?

Just saying...

 

[CygnusXS]

The Economist polled economists and it seems they prefer Obama

There's some interesting stuff in there, but this line:

“We have to assume Romney is lying about most of his plans,” one Republican academic observed.

sticks out.

 

[Black Mamba]

Doesn't the fact that there is only 10% Republicans point to the the unfair weighting of the poll?

Just saying...

No because of the size of independents. Economists used to be more associated with GOP than Dems IIRC. Also, they use NBER and stuff which is certainly not picking only left wing economists.

The Republican economists just simply became independents. Whether it's cuz of tax policy or social policies like abortion/gay marriage is unknown. Or possibly the wars.

 

[Zzoram]

But companies don't set prices and quantity by tax policy, they set marginal revenues to marginal supply.

here is an example.

You earn $100k profit. It cost you $10k to hire a new person and he produces revenues of $30k. You are now taxed at 10% of profits ($10k currently) and let's say all non-worker costs from added production is $5k (more supply = more shipping or something).

An extra worker would net you $15k pre-tax and you pay $1500 of that in taxes leaving you at $13.5k in added pre-tax profit. Now you earn $115k in pre-tax profits and $103.5k in total take home money.

So you obviously hire this new person.


Now, let's say I double the taxes to 20% of increased income. Well, you pay $20k in taxes. The worker still provides the same stuff. Now you still earn $15k pre-tax but pay $3k in taxes leaving you with $12k in taxes on the new income.

Your pre-tax profits go from $80k to $92k.

you still hire a new worker. Your profits are smaller but your decision is unchanged. You are trying to profit maximize, not tax minimize!

The taxes don't affect this, mathematically. They can't, because they are taxed on profits, not revenues. And the first rule is you set marginal revenues to marginal costs and income taxes play no part in either (other taxes do, however, like property and sales).


And let's say I don't have the money to hire a new person. Well then, I'll borrow it if it still nets me profit, right? Why wouldn't I?

Great post!

Why are Democrats so fucking pathetic when it comes to explaining their policies? If Obama explained this stuff even half as well as a GAF poster can, voters would see through the bullshit of billionaires claiming that tax cuts for them alone will create jobs.

Also, people need to be educated on how tax brackets work.

If for example, income up to $100,000 is taxed at 20% and income over $100,000 is taxed at 30%, a person earning $110,000 isn't paying 30% tax and making less money, he's paying 20% on the first $100,000 then 30% on the next $10,000 so it is literally impossible to make less money by entering a higher income tax bracket. Somehow, conservatives have been able to spread this myth that you can make less money by making more money due to a higher tax on a higher tax bracket and I hear people say this bullshit all the time.

 

[ryutaro's mama]

Great post!

Why are Democrats so fucking pathetic when it comes to explaining their policies? If Obama explained this stuff even half as well as a GAF poster can, voters would see through the bullshit of billionaires claiming that tax cuts for them alone will create jobs.

Also, people need to be educated on how tax brackets work.

If for example, income up to $100,000 is taxed at 20% and income over $100,000 is taxed at 30%, a person earning $110,000 isn't paying 30% tax and making less money, he's paying 20% on the first $100,000 then 30% on the next $10,000 so it is literally impossible to make less money by entering a higher income tax bracket. Somehow, conservatives have been able to spread this myth that you can make less money by making more money due to a higher tax on a higher tax bracket and I hear people say this bullshit all the time.

People laughed at Ross Perot and his charts but ffs, you got put that shit in layman terms.

You can't assume the average person will understand how that shit works.

 

[Zzoram]

Doesn't the fact that there is only 10% Republicans point to the the unfair weighting of the poll?

Just saying...

Well, Republicans are known to be more likely to identify as Independent in recent times even if they always vote Republican.

As for weighting, there may simply not be that many Republican identifying economists anymore. If they did a random sample, they shouldn't have to weight it because the party affiliation should be representative of all economists. Things like the GOP Tea Party in the House almost causing the US to default on the debt with a political game of chicken may be turning economists away from the GOP.

 

[Dreamcaster]

Are Nate's trends making anyone else nervous as fuck?

So right now that about a 56 electoral vote difference, meaning Romney has to turn 28 from Obama. Colorado, Virginia and Nevada or Iowa total 28. Wouldn't even need Ohio.

 

[jiggle]

since obama camp is apparently

again
anyone expecting another primetime 3 networks buy?

 

[Zzoram]

Are networks required to sell political ads to both sides at the same price?

 

[HylianTom]

People laughed at Ross Perot and his charts but ffs, you got put that shit in layman terms.

You can't assume the average person will understand how that shit works.

Perot and his charts were brilliant. I blame his chart-laden infomercials as a prime reason for why he did so well, especially in 1992. (and they made for great SNL material back then, too)

I wish more Dem and GOP candidates would employ this tactic. When this kind of communication is used, I feel like they're talking to us like we're educated adults. Imagine Obama giving a carefully-tailored final argument to voters in primetime during the final week of the campaign. Heck, even better: have Bill Clinton join him for parts of the presentation, since he's so convincing to swing voters. I wager that this kind of TV special would seal the deal.

 

[pigeon]

People laughed at Ross Perot and his charts but ffs, you got put that shit in layman terms.

You can't assume the average person will understand how that shit works.

The unfortunate reality of economics is that, especially in a fiat system, you only get like four steps away from "deposit cash, receive bacon" before you get to the point where the entire structure operates in a deeply counterintuitive manner for anybody used to their own personal budget.

(In some ways, this is one of the biggest weaknesses of capitalism. It's very difficult to make money in a rational market -- but it's easy to make money in an irrational market as long as you have power or information that other people don't have. So there's an intrinsic bias towards making things hard for people to understand. This should help make clear, among other things, why the American public school system was constituted the way it was.)

 

[ryutaro's mama]

Perot and his charts were brilliant. I blame his chart-laden infomercials as a prime reason for why he did so well, especially in 1992. (and they made for great SNL material back then, too)

I wish more Dem and GOP candidates would employ this tactic. When this kind of communication is used, I feel like they're talking to us like we're educated adults. Imagine Obama giving a carefully-tailored final argument to voters in primetime during the final week of the campaign. Heck, even better: have Bill Clinton join him for parts of the presentation, since he's so convincing to swing voters. I wager that this kind of TV special would seal the deal.

Bingo.

Don't waste the money on the "aw shucks" nonsense showing middle American families, blah,blah,blah from 2008.

Fuck that.

You do exactly what you said--have Obama on TV, with Slick Willy, telling America, in lay terms (with charts if necessary) explaining EXACTLY what the differences are between the two sides' tax, Medicare, abortion, etc. position.

Talk about what the fuck we have been through in the last 4 years, show where we have come, and where we need to be.

FUCKING EXPLAIN OBAMACARE.

Use that shit as closing arguments, sans a Romney rebuttal.

 

[cartoon_soldier]

Are Nate's trends making anyone else nervous as fuck?

So right now that about a 56 electoral vote difference, meaning Romney has to turn 28 from Obama. Colorado, Virginia and Nevada or Iowa total 28. Wouldn't even need Ohio.

Well yea if the trend continues Obama will have issues.

But also nate's model for EV is somewhat funky to work with. Problem being that if Obama wins OH, WI, IA...he wins. So Romney can't just flip CO, NV, VS, FL to win.

 

[Hobbestetrician]

Are Nate's trends making anyone else nervous as fuck?

So right now that about a 56 electoral vote difference, meaning Romney has to turn 28 from Obama. Colorado, Virginia and Nevada or Iowa total 28. Wouldn't even need Ohio.

I am just trying to tell myself that it is Obama's convention bounce finally coming back down and that Romney's bounce will subside soon.

The psychology of these numbers is interesting. A few weeks ago, the Intrade numbers being in the high 50s and 538 being in the 70%s helped calm me but now that those numbers spiked much higher and have come back down to those levels (even a bit higher) they no longer calm me.

 

[Zzoram]

Serious question:

Why has Obama not gone on a 1-hour TV special to explain Obamacare in enough detail for people to understand what it really includes and why those things are good? The only things you ever hear on the news about Obamacare are what the Republicans or Fox News say about it.

The vast majority of voters have no clue about what is in Obamacare so their feelings about it are based on sound bites and party affiliation.

 

[ryutaro's mama]

Serious question:

Why has Obama not gone on a 1-hour TV special to explain Obamacare in enough detail for people to understand what it really includes and why those things are good? The only things you ever hear on the news about Obamacare are what the Republicans or Fox News say about it.

Because Democrats are horrible at messaging.

 

[Zzoram]

Because Democrats are horrible at messaging.

But why? Why are no Democratic strategists suggesting to their candidates "Explain your shit in simple but detailed terms on TV"?

It boggles my mind that entire elections are run where no candidate explains what they have done or what they want to do with any detail.

 

[Averon]

So right now that about a 56 electoral vote difference, meaning Romney has to turn 28 from Obama. Colorado, Virginia and Nevada or Iowa total 28. Wouldn't even need Ohio.

That's a fairly tall order to ask for Romney. If early voting is anything to go by, IA isn't flipping red. Nevada has Harry Reid's ground game and democratic machine working for Obama. Obama's hasn't fallen behind in VA yet. CO is probably the most likely state out of those four that Mitt can flip.

 

[HylianTom]

That's a fairly tall order to ask for Romney. If early voting is anything to go by, IA isn't flipping red. Nevada has Harry Reid's ground game and democratic machine working for Obama. Obama's hasn't fallen behind in VA yet. CO is probably the most likely state out of those four that Mitt can flip.

TIME's Halperin did an interview with two of Obama's senior campaign advisors, and they seem quietly confident.. especially when the Electoral Map comes-up.

http://thepage.time.com/2012/10/09/...ls-at-the-chicago-headquarters/#ixzz28qkF3yb9

OBAMA ADVISER 1: And we’re going to see more of these polls coming out to show tightening of the race and that’s just, that’s how it goes. And, you know, just like we got a bounce coming out of the convention, we knew that bounce wasn’t real and wasn’t going to be sustainable. This isn’t going to be sustainable either.

OBAMA ADVISER 2: But here’s what the last ones didn’t change, it didn’t change his problems in the Midwest, on a whole host of issues. Didn’t change on cars. Didn’t change on outsourcing. It didn’t make him a better candidate in Ohio or Iowa or Wisconsin. And, you know, you just look at the map, he’s going to continue — we have more pathways to 270 — he’s got his problem, you’ve written that, and you’re right. It is, for him, and for us, in the end, about the map.

HALPERIN: And he has, even in attributes, the debate did not help him in any way as far as you’ve seen?

OBAMA ADVISER 2: Look, I think that the people are going to give him, people could give him a second look. But that’s not moving people to his column and I think he’s going to have a problem with, those voters are just going to be tougher for him, especially in battleground states.

OBAMA ADVISER 1: I think Republicans are probably, I think the one thing you could point to that did change is enthusiasm behind him on the Republican the side. Not just to defeat Obama, but more enthusiasm for Romney, which is exactly what happened with Kerry.

 

[SmokeMaxX]

Perot and his charts were brilliant. I blame his chart-laden infomercials as a prime reason for why he did so well, especially in 1992. (and they made for great SNL material back then, too)

I wish more Dem and GOP candidates would employ this tactic. When this kind of communication is used, I feel like they're talking to us like we're educated adults. Imagine Obama giving a carefully-tailored final argument to voters in primetime during the final week of the campaign. Heck, even better: have Bill Clinton join him for parts of the presentation, since he's so convincing to swing voters. I wager that this kind of TV special would seal the deal.

I was watching the '92 debates and Perot did really, really well. I was surprised. I looked it up and he was actually leading all candidates for a brief amount of time. WOW if we had an independent win the Presidency lol.

 

[RiccochetJ]

Done for the night but you all are amazing. Lots to learn and even though I might not agree with things I will always respect where you're coming from. In this short period of time, I've had my positions shifted. I look forward to future debates

Night!

 

[Aaron Strife]

Serious question:

Why has Obama not gone on a 1-hour TV special to explain Obamacare in enough detail for people to understand what it really includes and why those things are good? The only things you ever hear on the news about Obamacare are what the Republicans or Fox News say about it.

The vast majority of voters have no clue about what is in Obamacare so their feelings about it are based on sound bites and party affiliation.

Maybe he'll do it once he gets re-elected to neutralize it as an issue for 2014 (or perhaps make it a net positive), when it goes into full effect.

 

[cartoon_soldier]

But why? Why are no Democratic strategists suggesting to their candidates "Explain your shit in simple but detailed terms on TV"?

It boggles my mind that entire elections are run where no candidate explains what they have done or what they want to do with any detail.

There are, look at Stan Greenberg. He conducts focus groups and gives ideas. His last one was Obama's issues with unmarried women post debate. I don't think Obama campaign pays attention to him though. But then his campaign has been pretty lack luster post debate.

 

[isoquant]

Polls in Fla., Ohio and Va. see same-sex marriage support

A bare majority of voters in Florida and Ohio, and nearly half in Virginia, support the right of same-sex couples to wed, according to September Washington Post polls showing that the national trend toward accepting such unions has taken hold in these swing states...

In Florida, 54 percent of voters think same-sex marriage should be legal, while 33 percent say it should be illegal. In Ohio, 52 percent say it should be legal, while 37 percent say it should be illegal.

In 2004, by contrast, nearly two-thirds of Ohio voters — 62 percent — supported a constitutional amendment defining marriage as “only a union between one man and one woman.” The Ohio ballot initiative may have driven more voters to the polls who then supported Bush, according to exit surveys.

In 2006, 57 percent of Virginia voters supported similar legislation. And in 2008, among Florida voters, 62 percent supported an amendment limiting same-sex marriage in their state.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/polit...220-11e2-be82-c3411b7680a9_story.html?hpid=z4

 

[Tamanon]

Serious question:

Why has Obama not gone on a 1-hour TV special to explain Obamacare in enough detail for people to understand what it really includes and why those things are good? The only things you ever hear on the news about Obamacare are what the Republicans or Fox News say about it.

The vast majority of voters have no clue about what is in Obamacare so their feelings about it are based on sound bites and party affiliation.

Eh, Obamacare is more popular now than it was during his full-court media press.

 

[hawkshockey11]

Everyone go type "Completely wrong" into google images. I love Google humor.

 

[SmokeMaxX]

http://www.washingtonpost.com/polit...220-11e2-be82-c3411b7680a9_story.html?hpid=z4

Interesting. I would say this bodes very well for Obama. MOST people who lean right are against same-sex marriage. Same-sex marriage isn't even a home run for people who lean left.

 

[HylianTom]

Interesting. I would say this bodes very well for Obama. MOST people who lean right are against same-sex marriage. Same-sex marriage isn't even a home run for people who lean left.

Agree. This, to me, demonstrates that these voting populations are tilting towards wanting liberal social policy. These states are still fertile grounds for Obama victories.

Hopefully some decent social issue topics will come-up during the town hall debate. Romney's rabid base won't allow him to stray too far from the radical positions he staked-out during the primaries.

And while I'm wishing: I'd love for the parent of a gay child to ask Romney during the debate why his son or daughter can't get married.. it'd be an incredibly difficult moment for Romney. If he stays true to his base, he'll look cold-hearted.

 

[Plumbob]

Interesting. I would say this bodes very well for Obama. MOST people who lean right are against same-sex marriage. Same-sex marriage isn't even a home run for people who lean left.

Many young people support same sex marriage but vote Republican.

 

[Black Mamba]

Everyone go type "Completely wrong" into google images. I love Google humor.

 

[Oblivion]

Done for the night but you all are amazing. Lots to learn and even though I might not agree with things I will always respect where you're coming from. In this short period of time, I've had my positions shifted. I look forward to future debates

Night!

You are the worst conservative Poligaf has seen since Lovingsteam.

Everyone go type "Completely wrong" into google images. I love Google humor.

Holy shit. :lol

 

[SmokeMaxX]

Many young people support same sex marriage but vote Republican.

"Many"? I live in the heart of the Bible Belt. Even most of my friends who only vote Republican because they're fiscal conservatives are against homosexuality (and thus, same-sex marriage). Hell, I went to the most liberal college in my state and there was still a stigma regarding homosexuality. It wasn't as much as in the general population, but it was definitely there.

 

[Dominican Power]

The unfortunate reality of economics is that, especially in a fiat system, you only get like four steps away from "deposit cash, receive bacon" before you get to the point where the entire structure operates in a deeply counterintuitive manner for anybody used to their own personal budget.

(In some ways, this is one of the biggest weaknesses of capitalism. It's very difficult to make money in a rational market -- but it's easy to make money in an irrational market as long as you have power or information that other people don't have. So there's an intrinsic bias towards making things hard for people to understand. This should help make clear, among other things, why the American public school system was constituted the way it was.)

In what way was the public school system constituted?

 

[jamesinclair]

Are Nate's trends making anyone else nervous as fuck?

.

Extremely worried.

Just look at the forecast for next week.

Obama is done by October 20.

Also, Vita to be best selling console this Christmas.

 

[SmokeMaxX]

Update on Intrade- I previously stated that Obama would never hit $6 again and that you should buy if it ever got under $6.40. I'm an idiot. It hit as low as $5.85 today, which prompted me to double the amount of money into my account. I think it'll hit rock bottom right up until the Biden debate and then Obama and company will turn it around. Romney is seeing his bounce now, but if/when Obama decides to strike back- we should see it decrease.

Obama has a lot of good ads out now, but none of them are really sticking. Because most of us are heavy Obama supporters, that's pretty problematic. Not in the sense that many of us think he's going to lose- but more-so in the sense that now we have to deal with people thinking a lot of the right wing's claims are legitimate.

 

[ErasureAcer]

Just finished PBS' The Choice. Good stuff. Romney almost died in France. Would have been fitting since he skipped the war.

 

[SmokeMaxX]

Also, Vita to be best selling console this Christmas.

Damn time to trade all my Obama shares in for Sony shares.

 

[Forever]

Everyone go type "Completely wrong" into google images. I love Google humor.

Holy shit how did they do that?

 

[Jackson50]

Holy shit at the democratic party's ground game! I just completed early voting, and it's packed here. The dens bussed in a horde of students from the Obama rally, and there's strobe lights and music everywhere.

Best of all, the dens are passing out leaflets telling who to vote for.

Now WillIAm is coming out to greet all the voters. Crazy.

The organizational advantage could prove decisive if, by some miracle, Romney is able to maintain his bounce. And it's significance is ignored because it's obscured by the noise of the campaign.

Serious question:

Why has Obama not gone on a 1-hour TV special to explain Obamacare in enough detail for people to understand what it really includes and why those things are good? The only things you ever hear on the news about Obamacare are what the Republicans or Fox News say about it.

The vast majority of voters have no clue about what is in Obamacare so their feelings about it are based on sound bites and party affiliation.

It would probably be a waste of resources. The problem with the PPACA is not that Obama and the Democrats have insufficiently explained its merit. Rather, it's the nature of the legislation. The PPACA is a complex, dense alloy of numerous policies. It's not favorable to distillation. Attempting to explain the legislation would lose the public in the details.

 

[PhoenixDark]

Just finished PBS' The Choice. Good stuff. Romney almost died in France. Would have been fitting since he skipped the war.

Wow.

 

[HylianTom]

The organizational advantage could prove decisive if, by some miracle, Romney is able to maintain his bounce. And it's significance is ignored because it's obscured by the noise of the campaign.

Yup. I've read that an incredible ground game (like Obama's) can swing the numbers a few percentage points. My general stance is that if a state is tied going into Election Day, I'm inclined to bet on Obama winning it.

 

[Jak140]

Extremely worried.

Just look at the forecast for next week.

Obama is done by October 20.

Also, Vita to be best selling console this Christmas.

 

[RiccochetJ]

You are the worst conservative Poligaf has seen since Lovingsteam.

Still awake. Explain yourself.

Edit: Mostly getting annoyed that Chrome has taken to providing me with a completely blank screen. I have firefox now, so I'm all good.

 

[SmokeMaxX]

Still awake. Explain yourself.

Edit: Mostly getting annoyed that Chrome has taken to providing me with a completely blank screen. I have firefox now, so I'm all good.

I assume he's joking since the stereotypical Conservative has some whack opinion that they refuse to change even when confronted with the facts.

 

[ErasureAcer]

Wow.

There's plenty of people who were against the war that fought thanks to the draft. Romney was for it and hid in France. The irony would have been fitting. Your "wow" shouldn't be aimed at me but rather Mitt.

 

[PhoenixDark]

There's plenty of people who were against the war that fought thanks to the draft. Romney was for it and hid in France. The irony would have been fitting. Your "wow" shouldn't be aimed at me but rather Mitt.

It's a disgusting comment. I'm not defending Romney's bullshit, but your comment is below the pale

but whatever. few more weeks

 

[Mario]

Holy shit how did they do that?

Its just keying off of Romney's recent quote that he was "completely wrong" in his 47% remarks. Each one of those images is attached to an article covering the backpedal which includes that as an official quote.

 

[Cloudy]

Everyone go type "Completely wrong" into google images. I love Google humor.

I don't think it's humor. There have just been a lot of articles about Romney and that headline (47% apology)

 

[RiccochetJ]

I assume he's joking since the stereotypical Conservative has some whack opinion that they refuse to change even when confronted with the facts.

Eh, no point in arguing if on a philosophical level I think you're right. Otherwise I'm just fighting just because. Truth be told, I've learned some lessons as because of discussions/arguments around here.