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[Aaron Strife]

PPP

-Democrats leads the generic Congressional ballot 47/40. Although Congressional Democrats are unpopular with a 40/54 approval rating, that makes them quite popular in comparison to Congressional Republicans who come down at 24/67. Even GOP voters aren't happy with their party's leadership in Congress, giving them a 40/51 approval.

Generic ballot lead of 7 would be enough to win the House.

BTW PD i took over that bet against you on Dems winning the House

 

[The Librarian]

edit: beaten! I blame Dax.

What did I do????

 

[Fuchsdh]

The economy is a bit more complicated than number of jobs vs. number of people.

I can tell you in the tech industry, the US doesn't produce enough talented developers to fill the jobs that are needed.
It literally forces companies to open developer centers abroad.

And more broadly, the current economic system we have pretty much demand population growth, and we're not fucking enough, and you also seem to forget that every worker is also a consumer, they create more demand that help the economy.

But that's not really an issue of population, it's an issue of jobs, which gets into all the issues of what we're preparing workers for in the economy versus what they're actually doing, which leads into education. The problem with the immigration debate is (even compared to all the other issues we face) it's wrapped up in a ball of complications because it touches far more aspects of our society than probably even the "they're going to make America brown!" zanies think.

Fundamentally, if you believe in open borders you believe in redefining the very definition of a state. I don't think that's good for anyone involved; you need to have some sort of flow mechanism. And to get down to practicality, yeah I think we have every right to be choosy and pick the best guys we want as opposed to lots of unskilled workers.

Even on that metric, though, our immigration system clearly doesn't work effectively (witness the charts.) And even if we secure our borders (which actually has been fairly effective), you still have the vast majority of immigrants simply overstaying their visas. "Border control" doesn't really mean that much when most people are getting across them legally. They're certainly here illegally, but they're also human beings, and it's hard not to empathize with them considering the crap they have to go through. Either way you're not going to deport 6 million of them any more then they were going to deport 2 million of them back in '86.

To me the best options for making everyone happy in the immigration debate are to streamline the immigration process for the people we actually want, and then improve the conditions of the immigrant's host countries. We would be a lot more safe and secure if Mexico was more safe and secure. If you want to look at it philosophically it seems like The Right Thing to Do as self-proclaimed protector of the Americas.

As to the comment that we demand population growth, you're pretty much right, and that is fundamentally a huge issue. The consumer economy is going to fuck us up, because all of our problems are exacerbated by population growth.

 

[RustyNails]

I understand the rebels are a mixed lot and I'm wary of supporting them, but smh at Assad Defense Force in the syria thread. It's nauseating.

 

[Snake]

All Syria-related threads are pointless as long as hym remains unbanned. His special brand of anti-muslim bigotry and conspiracy theories cloaked in an anti-war stance infects every single page of discussion.

 

[B-Dubs]

All Syria-related threads are pointless as long as hym remains unbanned. His special brand of anti-muslim bigotry and conspiracy theories cloaked in an anti-war stance infects every single page of discussion.

Damn, I just went in there to take a look and you weren't kidding.

 

[RustyNails]

All Syria-related threads are pointless as long as hym remains unbanned. His special brand of anti-muslim bigotry and conspiracy theories cloaked in an anti-war stance infects every single page of discussion.

Completely agree. It's aggravating.

 

[PhoenixDark]

All Syria-related threads are pointless as long as hym remains unbanned. His special brand of anti-muslim bigotry and conspiracy theories cloaked in an anti-war stance infects every single page of discussion.

I assumed he was shia

 

[Snake]

I assumed he was shia

Yeah, from the aggressive Assad apologetics I thought that at first (or that he was an Alawite).

Then I read a dozen posts like this: http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=63730686&postcount=1114

I'm not Muslim, I can do with the products of Islam whatever pleases me

The only reason I researched Islam at all was out of curiosity and to know my enemy.

 

[Oblivion]

This is what happens when you don't have to deal with Republicans:

SACRAMENTO — California lawmakers passed a budget Friday that lays the groundwork for the largest expansion of public healthcare in the country, placing the state at the leading edge of President Obama's federal overhaul.

The budget, which the governor has until June 30 to sign, will also increase funding for schools, public universities and social services — a dramatic turnaround after years of deficits and cuts.

The Legislature approved the $96.3-billion spending plan after a relatively smooth series of negotiations between Gov. Jerry Brown and Democratic leaders that maintained much of the fiscal restraint urged by the governor.

http://www.latimes.com/news/local/la-me-state-budget-20130615,0,2056872.story


But goddamn, did I pick a bad time to get kicked out of college.

 

[The Librarian]

This is what happens when you don't have to deal with Republicans:




http://www.latimes.com/news/local/la-me-state-budget-20130615,0,2056872.story


But goddamn, did I pick a bad time to get kicked out of college.

Dammit, Leno, why didn't you push for single-payer in the negotiations? They're expanding access to Medi-Cal, so I guess that's one step closer :/

Edit: And how'd you get kicked out of college? Did you troll the chancellor?

 

[Particle Physicist]

This is what happens when you don't have to deal with Republicans:




http://www.latimes.com/news/local/la-me-state-budget-20130615,0,2056872.story


But goddamn, did I pick a bad time to get kicked out of college.

?? What happened? Sorry to hear that. I definitely think I will end up living in Cali in the future. My wife has been pushing for it, and it just makes sense.

 

[B-Dubs]

This is what happens when you don't have to deal with Republicans:




http://www.latimes.com/news/local/la-me-state-budget-20130615,0,2056872.story


But goddamn, did I pick a bad time to get kicked out of college.

You ok? What happened? You shouldn't have joined Robot House.

 

[PhoenixDark]

PPP



Generic ballot lead of 7 would be enough to win the House.

BTW PD i took over that bet against you on Dems winning the House

It's almost impossible for democrats to retake the House next year. I haven't seen Charlie Cook, Sabato, Silver, or anyone say otherwise recently. The gerrymandering is deep enough to prevent a 7 point dem lead from translating into them winning enough seats to win.

Another problem: we have yet to see whether Hispanics, young people, blacks, etc will show up in midterms (without Obama on the ticket). The good news is that the economy might be around 7.2% unemployment by next July.

 

[Oblivion]

?? What happened? Sorry to hear that. I definitely think I will end up living in Cali in the future.

You ok? What happened? You shouldn't have joined Robot House.

It was for a pretty lame reason, actually. I took some time off to focus on work so that I could save up enough money to bring my mom and brother back to L.A. Unfortunately, it seems I took a little too long, and the University has a rule (actually, I believe many schools do) where if you go past a certain point, you're essentially not a student anymore and have to reapply. As bad as that was, it would be somewhat tolerable if it wasn't for the fact that due to budget cuts, we only have one semester opening every year (which is Fall), and I missed the deadline for this year by the time I found out. Meaning, the earliest I can come back, is Fall 2014. :/

 

[Link]

It was for a pretty lame reason, actually. I took some time off to focus on work so that I could save up enough money to bring my mom and brother back to L.A. Unfortunately, it seems I took a little too long, and the University has a rule (actually, I believe many schools do) where if you go past a certain point, you're essentially not a student anymore and have to reapply. As bad as that was, it would be somewhat tolerable if it wasn't for the fact that due to budget cuts, we only have one semester opening every year (which is Fall), and I missed the deadline for this year by the time I found out. Meaning, the earliest I can come back, is Fall 2014. :/

That's not really the same as being kicked out. I mean, it's not good, but it could be worse. At least you're allowed back.

 

[platypotamus]

It was for a pretty lame reason, actually. I took some time off to focus on work so that I could save up enough money to bring my mom and brother back to L.A. Unfortunately, it seems I took a little too long, and the University has a rule (actually, I believe many schools do) where if you go past a certain point, you're essentially not a student anymore and have to reapply. As bad as that was, it would be somewhat tolerable if it wasn't for the fact that due to budget cuts, we only have one semester opening every year (which is Fall), and I missed the deadline for this year by the time I found out. Meaning, the earliest I can come back, is Fall 2014. :/

Sucks. My advice: Knock some of your gen ed requirements out of the way at a community college over the next year. That'll leave you with more time to focus on the "important" classes when you get back to your main school, and save you some money

 

[Aaron Strife]

It's almost impossible for democrats to retake the House next year. I haven't seen Charlie Cook, Sabato, Silver, or anyone say otherwise recently. The gerrymandering is deep enough to prevent a 7 point dem lead from translating into them winning enough seats to win.

Another problem: we have yet to see whether Hispanics, young people, blacks, etc will show up in midterms (without Obama on the ticket). The good news is that the economy might be around 7.2% unemployment by next July.

If Democrats had a 7 point generic ballot win in 2012 there would be a Democratic House right now. Granted, if that extra vote share was concentrated in districts that already went blue it wouldn't make the difference, but that can go the other way too.

Blacks actually set a record for voter participation in 2010, but the white vote went so strongly against Democrats that it didn't matter. 2014 could be more even. Immigration reform will be a potent issue for turning out Hispanics while promoting ENDA and gay marriage could move young voters to the polls.

Not saying with 100% certainty it'll happen, but I think Democrats can do it. I'm taking the bet for funsies more than anything.

 

[PhoenixDark]

If Democrats had a 7 point generic ballot win in 2012 there would be a Democratic House right now. Granted, if that extra vote share was concentrated in districts that already went blue it wouldn't make the difference, but that can go the other way too.

Blacks actually set a record for voter participation in 2010, but the white vote went so strongly against Democrats that it didn't matter. 2014 could be more even. Immigration reform will be a potent issue for turning out Hispanics while promoting ENDA and gay marriage could move young voters to the polls.

Not saying with 100% certainty it'll happen, but I think Democrats can do it. I'm taking the bet for funsies more than anything.

The country is carved in such a ridiculous manner, so yes. We've talked before about the death of "swing districts" due to gerrymandering. There are a few vulnerable congressmen on both sides (the guy who beat Allen West comes to mind) but overall both parties have created deeply partisan districts - and in republicans' case, these districts pull the party to the far right. Many of the districts have very low Hispanic populations, ensuring congressmen aren't punished by the upcoming immigration debate/death.

2016 at the earliest bro, but I don't expect it to change until 2020/next Census.

 

[RustyNails]

Yeah, from the aggressive Assad apologetics I thought that at first (or that he was an Alawite).

The only reason I researched Islam at all was out of curiosity and to know my enemy.

Then I read a dozen posts like this: http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=63730686&postcount=1114

Pathetic.

 

[RustyNails]

The country is carved in such a ridiculous manner, so yes. We've talked before about the death of "swing districts" due to gerrymandering. There are a few vulnerable congressmen on both sides (the guy who beat Allen West comes to mind) but overall both parties have created deeply partisan districts - and in republicans' case, these districts pull the party to the far right. Many of the districts have very low Hispanic populations, ensuring congressmen aren't punished by the upcoming immigration debate/death.

2016 at the earliest bro, but I don't expect it to change until 2020/next Census.

If Hillary loses 2020 reelection campaign, then kiss another decade goodbye.

 

[Link]

If Hillary loses 2020 reelection campaign, then kiss another decade goodbye.

We're worrying about 2020 now? And I thought it was still too early to talk about 2016.

 

[pigeon]

If Democrats had a 7 point generic ballot win in 2012 there would be a Democratic House right now. Granted, if that extra vote share was concentrated in districts that already went blue it wouldn't make the difference, but that can go the other way too.

To clarify, the 7 point threshold actually assumes that the votes are, in fact, concentrated disproportionately in blue districts, as they tend to be. Hopefully it's obvious that if we don't assume vote concentration a 1 point threshold would be more than sufficient for a Democratic House.

The point is that there's really only so much vote concentration possible before it leaks to nearby districts, and we're basically at that limit. If anything, we should anticipate the gerrymander to have less force every year merely from the natural effects of population movement. That's why they have to redraw the districts every ten years if they want the gerrymander to stay effective.

 

[RustyNails]

We're worrying about 2020 now? And I thought it was still too early to talk about 2016.

There's never not enough elections to worry about in poligaf.

 

[XenodudeX]

What kind of effect do you think this NSA debacle will have on the midterms and the 2016 election? Honestly I think this will cause the far right base to come out in force.

 

[789shadow]

What kind of effect do you think this NSA debacle will have on the midterms and the 2016 election? Honestly I think this will cause the far right base to come out in force.

I don't really think it'll have an effect. No one cared about the Patriot Act.

 

[ClassyPenguin]

Yup. This outrage should have been at those who voted for the Patriot Act. Oh look, the govt is following the law that was passed last administration! Outrage!

 

[The Librarian]

What kind of effect do you think this NSA debacle will have on the midterms and the 2016 election? Honestly I think this will cause the far right base to come out in force.

Curious to see people show outrage in that new NSA thread without remembering to wait until more news pours in. But seems people have forgotten to do that.

 

[Chichikov]

What kind of effect do you think this NSA debacle will have on the midterms and the 2016 election? Honestly I think this will cause the far right base to come out in force.

The libertarian wing of the GOP is pretty small, its majority is authoritarian and historically didn't have huge problems with such things (see the red the scare).
The biggest effect it's having is that liberals all of a sudden don't care about that issue.
It shapes up to be Obama's legacy, and that's depressing as hell.

Then again, spineless democrats rehabilitated the above mentioned red scare and the domino theory bullshit to "not look weak", so it's hardly a new thing.

 

[The Librarian]

Curious to see people show outrage in that new NSA thread without remembering to wait until more news pours in. But seems people have forgotten to do that.

Oh. Hey. Whaddya know: http://littlegreenfootballs.com/art...ne_Calls_-_But_Thats_Not_What_the_Video_Shows

 

[Chichikov]

Curious to see people show outrage in that new NSA thread without remembering to wait until more news pours in. But seems people have forgotten to do that.

Be honest here, would you have said the same had Bush was in office?
For real, what's the downside of being angry about that?
If nothing else, the fact that we don't know for sure is problematic enough on its own.

 

[The Librarian]

Be honest here, would you have said the same had Bush was in office?
For real, what's the downside of being angry about that?
If nothing else, the fact that we don't know for sure is problematic enough on its own.

I would've been too young, so I can't answer that.

 

[ClassyPenguin]

Oh. Hey. Whaddya know: http://littlegreenfootballs.com/art...ne_Calls_-_But_Thats_Not_What_the_Video_Shows

We need to revive that ancient trade of journalism. It's been dead for a while.

 

[ElectricThunder]

That's not really the same as being kicked out. I mean, it's not good, but it could be worse. At least you're allowed back.

Yep, take it from me, perhaps the only person forcibly expelled from a state uni on GAF(wouldn't wish it on anybody...serious life disruptor), hang in there try and make the best of the time ahead until you can get in again even with all this budget mess.

 

[bonercop]

Yup. This outrage should have been at those who voted for the Patriot Act. Oh look, the govt is following the law that was passed last administration! Outrage!

The anger directed at Obama might have something to do with the fact that he ran on reigning in the surveillance state.

 

[Fuchsdh]

The anger directed at Obama might have something to do with the fact that he ran on reigning in the surveillance state.

And the fact that with the Defense of Marriage Act, the Administration basically said they weren't going to bother enforcing the law. By that reckoning, it's sauce for the gander.

But it's a fair enough point that this is Congress' mess in the first place for enabling this. People tend to have the mentality that the President runs the show when (as much as the executive branch would like to) they really don't, even with the powers the branch has accumulated.* Still, Obama certainly took the Patriot Act to task before he took office.

*To wit: the House shooting down defunding and shutting down Guantanamo.

 

[Aaron Strife]

The country is carved in such a ridiculous manner, so yes. We've talked before about the death of "swing districts" due to gerrymandering. There are a few vulnerable congressmen on both sides (the guy who beat Allen West comes to mind) but overall both parties have created deeply partisan districts - and in republicans' case, these districts pull the party to the far right. Many of the districts have very low Hispanic populations, ensuring congressmen aren't punished by the upcoming immigration debate/death.

2016 at the earliest bro, but I don't expect it to change until 2020/next Census.

But we already saw Democratic districts max out their vote totals in 2012, when Democrats had a 1 point advantage. Give 6 points to every congressional Democrat and you'd have enough Democrats for a majority.

It's true that the dearth of real swing districts as a result of gerrymandering makes reclaiming the House much harder than it would be, but if Democrats post a large enough lead, it doesn't matter.

The biggest factor I'm curious about is how effective OFA will be at turning out voters. Turnout in midterm elections is muted in every demographic, but keeping young voters, blacks, Hispanics etc. at a high level of turnout will neutralize a more conservative, older white voting base. I don't think Obama has largely cared much about congressional races in the past, but

For starters, here's 7 House seats I think Democrats can pick up in 2014

CA-31 (This is a Democratic district where thanks to California's new primary setup, two Republicans advanced to the Nov election as the Democrats split the vote. Rep. Gary Miller is toast against a credible Democrat)

CO-06 (Mike Coffman, residing in a blue and heavily Hispanic district while railing against immigration reform and Obama. He only won by 3 points last year)

FL-2 (Steve Southerland. Democrats got a great recruit here in Gwen Graham, and this race was surprisingly close last year even though it wasn't on anyone's radar.)

IL-13 (Rodney Davis won by .1% against a perennial Democratic candidate, and Democrats landed a much better candidate for 2014)

NE-02 (Extremely close last year and the DCCC didn't even spend a dime. If Obama campaigns here where he's fairly well-liked, they could win it)

NY-11 (Mike Grimm has been slammed with ethical charges since being re-elected.)

NY-19 (Sean Eldridge is running here and is moneyed as hell.)

10 more to go.

 

[Chichikov]

The anger directed at Obama might have something to do with the fact that he ran on reigning in the surveillance state.

I can speak only about myself, but my anger is mostly because he is the fucking president, and more than anyone he has the power to stop that shit.
I'm not naive, I understand that those things has inertia and on personal level, I can totally see how we got into this situation we're in, I'm giving him shot because I think it's our best hope to affect change.

Also, the level of partisanship in this country means that he's rehabilitating such practices on the left (we must defend the queen! otherwise we'll have Palin as president!!!!), and that's a horrible legacy.

 

[Black Mamba]

The anger directed at Obama might have something to do with the fact that he ran on reigning in the surveillance state.

The illegal wiretaps were a different situation.

Obama did vote for FISA in 2008; how soon we forget.

 

[speculawyer]

What kind of effect do you think this NSA debacle will have on the midterms and the 2016 election? Honestly I think this will cause the far right base to come out in force.

Zero. This story will probably be dead within a couple weeks.

 

[el retorno]

http://www.buzzfeed.com/johnstanton/arizona-senators-son-used-homophobic-anti-semetic-language-o

Jeff Flake's son goes by the user name n1ggerkiller and posts racist youtube comments under his actual name

L-O-L

The youth of this nation is depressingly stupid. I don't even think they need the NSA spying on people. They'll just give out info

 

[PhoenixDark]

And the fact that with the Defense of Marriage Act, the Administration basically said they weren't going to bother enforcing the law. By that reckoning, it's sauce for the gander.

But it's a fair enough point that this is Congress' mess in the first place for enabling this. People tend to have the mentality that the President runs the show when (as much as the executive branch would like to) they really don't, even with the powers the branch has accumulated.* Still, Obama certainly took the Patriot Act to task before he took office.

*To wit: the House shooting down defunding and shutting down Guantanamo.

He's the president, and has the power to end programs like this. This isn't Gitmo. It's nothing new though, he's been worse than Bush on these issues for some time now - the media just happened to start paying attention recently. Frankly I'm tired of "liberals" defending him here as if this is some left/right issue.

also
http://www.buzzfeed.com/andrewkaczynski/video-congressman-claims-he-was-told-government-could-listen

 

[The Librarian]

He's the president, and has the power to end programs like this. This isn't Gitmo. It's nothing new though, he's been worse than Bush on these issues for some time now - the media just happened to start paying attention recently. Frankly I'm tired of "liberals" defending him here as if this is some left/right issue.

also
http://www.buzzfeed.com/andrewkaczynski/video-congressman-claims-he-was-told-government-could-listen

PD, please don't peddle BS.

 

[bonercop]

I can speak only about myself, but my anger is mostly because he is the fucking president, and more than anyone he has the power to stop that shit.
I'm not naive, I understand that those things has inertia and on personal level, I can totally see how we got into this situation we're in, I'm giving him shot because I think it's our best hope to affect change.

Also, the level of partisanship in this country means that he's rehabilitating such practices on the left (we must defend the queen! otherwise we'll have Palin as president!!!!), and that's a horrible legacy.

This poll from a couple weeks back says it all, really

 

[PhoenixDark]

That poll sums things up well.

PD, please don't peddle BS.

Nothing I said is inaccurate. Deal with it.

Feels odd agreeing with Empty Vessel but...that's the hand we've been dealt.

 

[Chichikov]

Nothing I said is inaccurate. Deal with it.

Feels odd agreeing with Empty Vessel but...that's the hand we've been dealt.

To quote Greenwald -

As we were about to begin publishing these NSA stories, a veteran journalist friend warned me that the tactic used by Democratic partisans would be to cling to and then endlessly harp on any alleged inaccuracy in any one of the stories we publish as a means of distracting attention away from the revelations and discrediting the entire project. That proved quite prescient, as that is exactly what they are attempting to do.​

Like motherfucking clockwork.
They even put it in the title of the other thread, because you know, that's what really important here.

This is all really sad to see.

 

[PhoenixDark]

To quote Greenwald -

As we were about to begin publishing these NSA stories, a veteran journalist friend warned me that the tactic used by Democratic partisans would be to cling to and then endlessly harp on any alleged inaccuracy in any one of the stories we publish as a means of distracting attention away from the revelations and discrediting the entire project. That proved quite prescient, as that is exactly what they are attempting to do.​

Like motherfucking clockwork.
They even put it in the title of the other thread, because you know, that's what really important here.

This is all really sad to see.

My twitter feed has been clogged with so much anti-Greenwald screed from liberals. I'm far from a Greenwald fan, although I've read his stuff for years, but when he's right...he's right. Bringing up his past Patriot Act support or who he once defended as a lawyer strikes me as gutter "attack the messenger/distract the story" shit.

I think there's a general "protect the president/party/etc" reaction whenever a major story erupts, and for much of the last four years it felt appropriate given the ridiculous FUD coming from the far right. But this issue has nothing to do with left/right politics, nor is it a matter of "defending" Obama against baseless attacks. In fact, many on the right are defending the administration, and it's only a matter of time before Dick Cheney awakens to give Obama his blessing. This is a matter of civil liberties, privacy, and rank hypocrisy - not "who won/who lost" politics.

 

[Carpe Libertatem]

http://www.buzzfeed.com/johnstanton/arizona-senators-son-used-homophobic-anti-semetic-language-o

Jeff Flake's son goes by the user name n1ggerkiller and posts racist youtube comments under his actual name

L-O-L

The youth of this nation is depressingly stupid. I don't even think they need the NSA spying on people. They'll just give out info

Same thing with a Nevada Congressman's son


Must be something going around

 

[Link]

The biggest effect it's having is that liberals all of a sudden don't care about that issue.
It shapes up to be Obama's legacy, and that's depressing as hell.

I think that's being hyperbolic. Obama's record on civil liberties is far from great, but I don't think it will define his presidency. He'll be much more remembered for the ACA and the strides made in gay rights.

 

[PhoenixDark]

I think that's being hyperbolic. Obama's record on civil liberties is far from great, but I don't think it will define his presidency. He'll be much more remembered for the ACA and the strides made in gay rights.

Far from great is an under statement. And yes, it will be a major part of his record/how he is perceived. There was a general hope amongst many people that he would alter US policy in many ways, specifically with respect to civil liberties and foreign policy. And while we are no longer putting boots on the ground in ME countries, civil liberties are still being shredded; and let's not forget he OK'd the assassination of two American citizens.

Ultimately I think each president following him will get progressively worse on these issues as the power of the executive branch expands. I really don't see anyone on the horizon who will slow this train down.