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PoliGAF 2014 |OT| Kay Hagan and the Terrible, Horrible, No Good, Very Bad News

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M

Mike M

Nick N
Just heard a snippet on the radio about the federal appeals court ruling against subsidies for the federal health care exchanges.
 
W

Wilsongt

Member
PhoenixDark said:
What a disaster of a second term.
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P

PhoenixDark

Banned
On a serious note, it's going to be very important to inform people that they will not lose their subsidy anytime soon. I can see this freaking out some low information folks. So make sure to tell friends/family they shouldn't be worried (right now).
 
A

Averon

Member
Plumbob said:
Someone catch me up.

What are the odds Obamacare is crippled?
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Depends on what Roberts will do. These two conflicting rulings almost guarantee that Obamacare will head back to the SC. We know four of the conservative justices wanted to kill the law entirely. Will Roberts come to the rescue and save ACA again? I doubt it.
 
H

HylianTom

Banned
APKmetsfan said:
Meanwhile Iowa and Colorado (which I still think is a bad place to poll) continue to slip away.

What is going to be the reaction here when Republicans win the senate like it looks like they're gonna do?
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My anticipated reaction: *shrug* Let the freepers enjoy their moment.. not like they'll do anything worthwhile with it. The next three years are legislatively shot anyway. I'll just pray for RBG's health in the meantime and look forward to the Hillary wave election in '16.
 
W

Wilsongt

Member
speculawyer said:
It is really too bad he didn't launch his book closer to the election.
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We might need to add a Death To Obama counter:

Last week Stephen Steinlight, a senior policy analyst for the Center for Immigration Studies, spoke in front of a Tea Party group in Sebring, Fla. As you might expect in such a setting, this was not what you might call a particularly immigration-friendly gathering. Nonetheless, Steinlight, being a representative of a group that calls itself an “independent, non-partisan, non-profit, research organization,” played it straight down the middle in his fair-minded assessment of the immigration issue. That is, of course, if you think saying the president should be executed counts as fair.
“We all know, if there ever was a president that deserved to be impeached, it’s this guy. Alright? And I wouldn’t stop. I would think being hung, drawn, and quartered is probably too good for him.”
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T

thepotatoman

Unconfirmed Member
APKmetsfan said:
Meanwhile Iowa and Colorado (which I still think is a bad place to poll) continue to slip away.

What is going to be the reaction here when Republicans win the senate like it looks like they're gonna do?
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I would be surprised and disappointed, but I wouldn't be that crushed. Worst thing is it would throw out the chance for a senate supermajority any time soon, which would still be a long shot even if they did keep the senate.

I would hope Obama doesn't do any crazy deals with them, and I would expect an impeachment proceeding which would probably be good for the democrats and would be a fun political thing that's not the 2016 election.
 
T

teiresias

Member
Wow, the language in the Fourth Circuit upholding of the subsidies:

What they may not do is rely on our help to
deny to millions of Americans desperately-needed health
insurance through a tortured, nonsensical construction of a
federal statute whose manifest purpose, as revealed by the
wholeness and coherence of its text and structure, could not be
more clear.
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C

Cat

Member
This is local instead of national politics, but that's alright in here, right?

I'm mostly just following the tweets about this and not THAT informed about our city politics (working on it):

Anyway, we have a new mayor in San Antonio. Julian Castro has officially resigned. His replacement is:

Ivy R. Taylor:
Ian1FLWu_400x400.jpeg


She's our first African-American mayor.
 
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
PhoenixDark said:
She loses, dems lose the senate. Write it down.

South Dakota, West Virginia, Montana, Louisiana, Iowa, North Carolina.
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Keep fucking that chicken.

And going back on Arkansas? Poor PD having to admit a Democrat can win. But good to know I only need Braley or Hagan to win in order to win our little bet.
 
R

RustyNails

Member
Aaron Strife said:
I don't know, gang.

This would be great for policy, buuuut...

Doing it before the midterms? I think such a move would rile up conservatives considerably.

Though I suppose most of the hardass conservatives who would be fired up by this would already be voting anyway.

It might also boost Obama's approval numbers with Hispanics and get them to turn out in races like Colorado.

But that would make life that much harder for Grimes, Pryor, Landrieu, Hagan, Nunn...

I'm just not sure about this one.
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How will this affect the turnout negatively? It will make democrats more enthused in my opinion. Remember in 2006 when limbaugh and ftiends sabotaged the immigration reform? That was the year democrats also retook the congress. Most of these tiebreaker states such as georgia and north carolina also have huge latino population.
 
H

HylianTom

Banned
I'm wondering if we'll see the Dems hold 49 seats in November, with the 50th seat to be decided by a runoff here in Louisiana on December 6th. After living in Texas for a decade (where every statewide race is decided in the GOP primary), that'd be kinda fun to witness.
 
I

Incognito

Troll
Cat said:
This is local instead of national politics, but that's alright in here, right?

I'm mostly just following the tweets about this and not THAT informed about our city politics (working on it):

Anyway, we have a new mayor in San Antonio. Julian Castro has officially resigned. His replacement is:

Ivy R. Taylor:
Ian1FLWu_400x400.jpeg


She's our first African-American mayor.
Click to expand...

welcome to local politics! watched the proceedings on local government channel and was glad to see she assumed the mayorship. she's ruled out running in may 2015, but we'll see.

i have a quite a few friends on the council and many more working for councilmembers, so if you have any questions about city politics etc just hit meh up!
 
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
RustyNails said:
How will this affect the turnout negatively? It will make democrats more enthused in my opinion. Remember in 2006 when limbaugh and ftiends sabotaged the immigration reform? That was the year democrats also retook the congress. Most of these tiebreaker states such as georgia and north carolina also have huge latino population.
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In the sense that it would turn out Republicans even more, canceling out any gains by the Democrats. When the GOP sunk immigration reform in 06, that was the end of it - and Democrats were pissed. This time, the GOP has sunk immigration reform, but Obama would do something to achieve it anyway, which would mobilize the right.

HylianTom said:
I'm wondering if we'll see the Dems hold 49 seats in November, with the 50th seat to be decided by a runoff here in Louisiana on December 6th. After living in Texas for a decade (where every statewide race is decided in the GOP primary), that'd be kinda fun to witness.
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Uggggh. This is like my nightmare scenario. I'd be full Diablos for a month. And I think Landrieu would lose in this scenario.
 
C

Crisco

Banned
So what the fuck does this mean?

The U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit, in a 2-1 decision, ruled that the tax credits provided under President Barack Obama’s health care law can be offered only to states that set up their own marketplaces.

Two hours later, the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Fourth Circuit in Richmond, Va., upheld the legality of the subsidies, saying that a rule issued by the Internal Revenue Service to allow the subsidies nationwide was a “permissible exercise” of the agency to interpret ambiguous language contained in the 2010 federal health law.
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C

Cat

Member
Incognito said:
welcome to local politics! watched the proceedings on local government channel and was glad to see she assumed the mayorship. she's ruled out running in may 2015, but we'll see.

i have a quite a few friends on the council and many more working for councilmembers, so if you have any questions about city politics etc just hit meh up!
Click to expand...

Right now, I'm mainly just putting together a Twitter list to help keep me informed about what's happening in town, so if you have any recommended accounts to follow, please let me know.
 
TheLaughingStock

TheLaughingStock

Member
APKmetsfan said:
Why were Americans so obviously not enraged? Because—duh—the hated neoliberal system worked. We didn't have a second Great Depression. The Fed intervened, the banking system was saved, and a stimulus bill was passed. Did bankers get treated too well? Oh yes indeed. Was the stimulus too small? You bet. Nevertheless, was America saved from an epic collapse? It sure was. Instead of a massive meltdown, we got a really bad recession and a weak recovery, and even that was cushioned by a safety net that, although inadequate, was more than enough to keep the pitchforks off the streets.
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Federal intervention proved the "hated neoliberal system" worked? He has a wild narrative.
 
T

thepotatoman

Unconfirmed Member
RustyNails said:
How will this affect the turnout negatively? It will make democrats more enthused in my opinion. Remember in 2006 when limbaugh and ftiends sabotaged the immigration reform? That was the year democrats also retook the congress. Most of these tiebreaker states such as georgia and north carolina also have huge latino population.
Click to expand...

It's just a lot easier to really hate immigration than it is to really like it. Fear is just stronger than altruism. And Latinos just aren't a big enough voting block to overcome that effect just yet.

If Obama does this, than the senate is 100% confirmed gone.

Still, there was a chance the senate was going to be gone anyway. If we do lose the senate I'd prefer it to be for something like this. It'd be nice to wait until next year for something like this to happen, but the timing of recent events may just make it have to be right now.
 
T

thepotatoman

Unconfirmed Member
APKmetsfan said:
Uh yes?
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Well, for the rich it worked. The middle class and poor still felt a very hard 6 years of terrible jobs and real wages, which is basically the only economical thing that matters to them. Immediately after the business owners were fine, Obama conceded the change in focus to the deficit problem, with his only goal seemingly being to get $1 of revenue for $10 of spending cuts, all eventually resulting in the sequester.

Saying that at least it wasn't another great depression doesn't really make people feel much better about that. Especially when you put in practically no work towards making sure it doesn't happen again.
 
TheLaughingStock

TheLaughingStock

Member
APKmetsfan said:
Uh yes?
Click to expand...

How? The market didn't balance out itself and fiscal policy was primarily non-discretionary all around the world. Virtually all economies impacted by the Great Recession reversed their dramatic decline in output around the same time regardless of what they did. Neoliberal dogma wasn't required to keep yourself from a second Great Depression.
 
N

NYCmetsfan

Banned
thepotatoman said:
Well, for the rich it worked. The middle class and poor still felt a very hard 6 years of terrible jobs and real wages, which is basically the only economical thing that matters to them. Immediately after the business owners were fine, Obama conceded the change in focus to the deficit problem, with his only goal seemingly being to get $1 of revenue for $10 of spending cuts, all eventually resulting in the sequester.

Saying that at least it wasn't another great depression doesn't really make people feel much better about that. Especially when you put in practically no work towards making sure it doesn't happen again.
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You keep moving the goal posts. You keep defining what was a failure as what you see as a failure.

People have grumbled about the economy, Butt here was no mass starvation, extremely large unemployment (look at most of the world and 10% looks amazing), people could keep buying ipads and playstations, the credit markets stayed open.

The system worked by any real measure, nothing collapsed. What we had was a continuation of previous trends of stagnate wages and increasing social inequality. Nobody was convinced of doing any real 'liberal' things to fixed it because the liberal system set up in the 20th century like unemployment, ss, counter-cyclical spending kicked in and did what they were supposed to do

TheLaughingStock said:
How? The market didn't balance out itself and fiscal policy was primarily non-discretionary all around the world. Virtually all economies impacted by the Great Recession reversed their dramatic decline in output around the same time regardless of what they did. Neoliberal dogma wasn't required to keep yourself from a second Great Depression.
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Well, when you transform neoliberal into a slur and think it means the most extreme of lassie-faire policy.
 
O

Oblivion

Fetishing muscular manly men in skintight hosery
Someone answer this for me. Hypothetically, if the Supremes vote against this dumbass case about the exchanges, what does that mean for all the money that's no longer going to states who don't have their own exchanges? Does that get diverted to the states that DO have their own exchanges?
 
T

thepotatoman

Unconfirmed Member
APKmetsfan said:
You keep moving the goal posts. You keep defining what was a failure as what you see as a failure.

People have grumbled about the economy, Butt here was no mass starvation, extremely large unemployment (look at most of the world and 10% looks amazing), people could keep buying ipads and playstations, the credit markets stayed open.

The system worked by any real measure, nothing collapsed. What we had was a continuation of previous trends of stagnate wages and increasing social inequality. Nobody was convinced of doing any real 'liberal' things to fixed it because the liberal system set up in the 20th century like unemployment, ss, counter-cyclical spending kicked in and did what they were supposed to do.
Click to expand...

I guess in 2008 everyone just wanted to not have it be another great depression, but ever since early 2010, everyone has been pretty consistent that jobs and wages are the main problem.

Clearly the stopgaps were not enough, and more demand side stimulus was very clearly required.

APKmetsfan said:
Well, when you transform neoliberal into a slur and think it means the most extreme of lassie-faire policy.
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Neo-liberal is extremely hard to define. Sometimes it feels like it's only lassie-faire with the exception of monetary policy, sometimes it feels like full Keynesian just with less regulation. I guess even Larry Summers was pushing for more demand side stimulus, and he's a big time neo-liberal, so in that case maybe I have no qualms with the neo-liberal ideas to fix the problem.

My main problem is that the neo-liberals did not see it coming, or try to prevent it from happening in the first place. They still don't really have a good explanation for why it happened or how we can avoid it in the first place. Classical lasse-faire economists can cite the housing incentives, and Post-Keynesian economists can cite people like Minsky who was warning of speculative bubbles arising from the financial sector with no regulation, but how can neo-liberals explain it? I have not seen anything suggesting some form of regulation caused the problem, and the problem was way too large for a night watchmen approach to really take care of it before it caused major pain.

As far as I'm concerned, neo-liberals deserve the bad rap they get until they can give a good answer as to how to change something to make it not happen again.
 
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