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PoliGAF 2014 |OT| Kay Hagan and the Terrible, Horrible, No Good, Very Bad News

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Metaphoreus

This is semantics, and nothing more
Someone answer this for me. Hypothetically, if the Supremes vote against this dumbass case about the exchanges, what does that mean for all the money that's no longer going to states who don't have their own exchanges? Does that get diverted to the states that DO have their own exchanges?

No.

First of all, to be clear, the money at issue in Halbig and King isn't money that goes to the states. It goes to individuals. While this is probably what you meant, I thought it was worth clarifying.

Second, the amount that goes to any taxpayer doesn't factor in the total amount given by the IRS to all taxpayers (who receive the subsidy), so a reduction in the latter will not cause a change in the former.
 
I guess in 2008 everyone just wanted to not have it be another great depression, but ever since early 2010, everyone has been pretty consistent that jobs and wages are the main problem.

That's the entire thesis I'm trying to get across!

Not really a judgement on if it was the best or what should have happened just that is exactly why Obama isn't to blame. Especially the liberal media was enamored with getting us 'back on track', not fixing the underlying problems or changing failed systems. Drum is trying to say that 'we', the liberal establishment that's now looking back and blaming everyone but themselves, failed there.
 
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thepotatoman

Unconfirmed Member
That's the entire thesis I'm trying to get across!

Not really a judgement on if it was the best or what should have happened just that is exactly why Obama isn't to blame. Especially the liberal media was enamored with getting us 'back on track', not fixing the underlying problems or changing failed systems. Drum is trying to say that 'we', the liberal establishment that's now looking back and blaming everyone but themselves, failed there.

I didn't realize we were only talking about 2009. Ok fine, I'll agree that for the most part neo-liberalism was fine in 2009. It failed us every year leading up to 2009 and it failed us every year after 2009, but it did a great job that one year.

But even in 2009, there were tons of calls to jail the bankers. That was a huge part of the discussion from the liberal side. And nothing ever got done on that front. No one got jailed, and no new regulations were put in place to make bankers to get jailed if it happened again. Neo-liberalism and the administration still failed them on that front.
 

Oblivion

Fetishing muscular manly men in skintight hosery
No.

First of all, to be clear, the money at issue in Halbig and King isn't money that goes to the states. It goes to individuals. While this is probably what you meant, I thought it was worth clarifying.

Second, the amount that goes to any taxpayer doesn't factor in the total amount given by the IRS to all taxpayers (who receive the subsidy), so a reduction in the latter will not cause a change in the former.

Ah right, that makes sense now that I think about it. So while the amount that an individual might receive may not change, there will be more money to spread over to more people in states with exchanges, right?
 

Metaphoreus

This is semantics, and nothing more
Ah right, that makes sense now that I think about it. So while the amount that an individual might receive may not change, there will be more money to spread over to more people in states with exchanges, right?

I guess Congress could give the savings from not offering subsidies in states without state-established exchanges to further benefit residents in states that have. I don't think they will, though, since the Republicans have no reason to do so and the Democrats would likely sooner amend PPACA to provide subsidies on the federal exchange.
 

Oblivion

Fetishing muscular manly men in skintight hosery
I guess Congress could give the savings from not offering subsidies in states without state-established exchanges to further benefit residents in states that have. I don't think they will, though, since the Republicans have no reason to do so and the Democrats would likely sooner amend PPACA to provide subsidies on the federal exchange.

But if that doesn't happen then where would the savings go?
 
Meanwhile Iowa and Colorado (which I still think is a bad place to poll) continue to slip away.

What is going to be the reaction here when Republicans win the senate like it looks like they're gonna do?

What difference would that make? No legislation passes as is. So we'll get double-nothing?

Heck, it could end up being a good thing. If they go as loopy as the House currently is and shuts down the government again they'll reap what they sow.
 
So :

Rasmussen polled on conspiracy theories :


-24% are convinced U.S government knew in advance about September 11, 2001, 19% are not sure.

-60% believe Obama is an American citizen.

Sanity still has the majority aka I can't hold all these sheeple.

A majority of Republicans either believe Obama is not an American citizen (41%) or are not sure (20%). That is pretty sad.

Forty-one percent (41%) of Republicans believe Obama is not an American citizen, compared to 21% of unaffiliateds and 11% of Democrats. Just over 20% of Republicans and unaffiliated adults also are not sure, but only seven percent (7%) of those in the president's party share that doubt.
 
The gov't will just have more revenues than expected which means it will borrow less.

The money isn't re-allocated. There is not set allocation to the subsidies.
 
So :

Rasmussen polled on conspiracy theories :


-24% are convinced U.S government knew in advance about September 11, 2001, 19% are not sure.

-60% believe Obama is an American citizen.

Sanity still has the majority aka I can't hold all these sheeple.
This stand out to me:
Twenty-four percent (24%) of Democrats and 29% of those not affiliated with either major political party believe the government knew about 9/11, but only 17% of Republicans agree. Roughly one-in-five adults in all three groups are undecided
I thought it was mostly those that lean left who believed this.
 
This stand out to me:

I thought it was mostly those that lean left who believed this.
No . . . Alex Jones was a big pusher of that theory and he is more on the right.


I also think the question is a bit vague because a lot of people that may have answered yes to that conspiracy theory may feel that the memo entitled "Bin Laden Determined to Strike America" counted as knowing about 9/11 in advance.

I mean really . . . do those 17% of Republicans really think the guys they voted for did it? C'mon.
 

teiresias

Member
This stand out to me:

I thought it was mostly those that lean left who believed this.

I'd actually be interested in the particular wording of this question. I mean, do they mean "knew about 9/11" in the literal sense of that specific attack or did these people think there was intelligence on terrorist activities that was ignored? I mean, the latter is pretty much true, right?

[EDIT]: Apparently speculawyer and I had the same thought.
 
Hm, tight race in the Georgia Senate primary run-off. 80% reporting and David Perdue is up by about 2,500 votes.

I'd think Jack Kingston would be easier to beat but neither of them seem that impressive as candidates
 

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
Left wing libertarians?

Political beliefs aren't really a straight line. They're more of a circle or a graph, with the top two quadrants being authoritative and the bottom two being libertarian with the economic beliefs fall where you would expect.

I know, right. Libertarians are and will continue to be republicans too embarrassed to admit it. You're pro-weed? Yay! You're still a republican.

I was talking more about the classical definition. Not that I disagree with you.
 
Left wing libertarians?

There is such a thing.

Basically describing yourself as a libertarian means you are committed to policies that will help "free people" meaning that a lot of left wing libertarians support socialism or the welfare state because they see it as means to free people.

Michael Foot, one of the leading leftists of the Labour Party in the 20th century would always call himself a libertarian socialist because he felt the best way to free people was through socialism.
 

thefro

Member
There is such a thing.

Basically describing yourself as a libertarian means you are committed to policies that will help "free people" meaning that a lot of left wing libertarians support socialism or the welfare state because they see it as means to free people.

Michael Foot, one of the leading leftists of the Labour Party in the 20th century would always call himself a libertarian socialist because he felt the best way to free people was through socialism.

Markos of Daily Kos considered himself a "Libertarian Democrat".
 
About that Rasmussen poll, I thought it was pretty clear that the Bush administration knew that something big was going to happen involving planes. Bush was in his crawford ranch when people gave him the intel report about it, and he didn't do anything. I think that's what the poll respondents are implying, not that the government specifically knew 19 hijackers are going to crash planes into buildings in NY and VA.
 

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
About that Rasmussen poll, I thought it was pretty clear that the Bush administration knew that something big was going to happen involving planes. Bush was in his crawford ranch when people gave him the intel report about it, and he didn't do anything. I think that's what the poll respondents are implying, not that the government specifically knew 19 hijackers are going to crash planes into buildings in NY and VA.

That could be it, but we do have to remember that we're all a lot more informed than the average voter. I doubt they've heard of that intel report.
 
That could be it, but we do have to remember that we're all a lot more informed than the average voter. I doubt they've heard of that intel report.
That's true.

I'm also willing to bet at least 1 or 2% of Republican respondents think Obama caused 9/11.
Kingston lost in NC. Really surprised, I thought Kingston was ahead by quite a bit.
Just have your butcher of benghazi avatar ready by november bro.
 
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thepotatoman

Unconfirmed Member
There is such a thing.

Basically describing yourself as a libertarian means you are committed to policies that will help "free people" meaning that a lot of left wing libertarians support socialism or the welfare state because they see it as means to free people.

Michael Foot, one of the leading leftists of the Labour Party in the 20th century would always call himself a libertarian socialist because he felt the best way to free people was through socialism.

That's more of European definition as far as I can tell. I usually just think left wing libertarians still have the same positions as libertarian party, but care more about the social issues than the fiscal ones.
 

KingK

Member
Does anyone know the stances of the Senators in close races regarding the Iran negotiations? My biggest concern over the Senate right now is that it will get to the 66 vote threshold of Senators who would intentionally sabotage any deal Obama and Kerry reach with Iran.

It's mostly the libertarians on both sides and the "pox on both their houses" guys that believe it from my experience.

That's my experience as well. I've got one good friend who believes 9/11 conspiracies who is almost completely apolitical ("both parties suck" and he doesn't vote, but would likely vote Democrat if he did). The other person I know who believes the conspiracies is a racist libertarian/gun nut/Confederacy lover.
 

Wall

Member
You keep moving the goal posts. You keep defining what was a failure as what you see as a failure.

People have grumbled about the economy, Butt here was no mass starvation, extremely large unemployment (look at most of the world and 10% looks amazing), people could keep buying ipads and playstations, the credit markets stayed open.

The system worked by any real measure, nothing collapsed. What we had was a continuation of previous trends of stagnate wages and increasing social inequality. Nobody was convinced of doing any real 'liberal' things to fixed it because the liberal system set up in the 20th century like unemployment, ss, counter-cyclical spending kicked in and did what they were supposed to do.

I really want to push back against this notion that the "system" worked. If you define working as "not completely collapsing to the point where the very stability of our society is threatened like during the Great Depression", then yes, it "worked". That is an unacceptably low bar to clear, however. Prior to 2008-2008, at the very least the economic system (which I'd define as monetarism + military Kenysianism) was maintaining close to full employment (defined as 4-5% unemployment, which is assumed to be frictional) and providing people with basic necessities like housing and education.

As I said before, currently unemployment is above 6%, we are having a housing crisis in major American cities, and student debts along with lack of opportunity are preventing many young people from starting families at the same age their parents did, if at all. In addition, vital services are being cut in cities nationwide because of budget shortfalls related to the poor economy. An economy that fails to provide basically necessities like housing, education, and jobs is not a functioning one.

The whole thing might have been unsustainable, and all the things like rising inequality that you cite might have been happening, but at the very least the economy was functioning well enough to do the things I mentioned. All that ended the minute the Fed cut rates to zero and nothing happened. At that moment, the economic system in place since the 1980's stopped working.

Quite simply, even on its own terms, the system is broken. According to New Democrat/New Labor/Neo-Liberal/Compassionate Conservative ideology, a "free market" combined with government intervention in narrow areas of market failure, such as externalities caused by pollution, is the best way to ensure a prosperous society. Instability and suffering caused by the business cycle are supposed to be dealt with via Federal Reserve action and a publicly funded "safety net".

None of that works right now. In economic theory, by definition, unemployment is wasteful and evidence of economic dysfunction. Even worse, the "free market" is supposed to guarantee prosperity by ensuring an efficient allocation of goods due, in part, to mechanisms of creative destruction whereby wasteful or unneeded businesses are allowed to go bankrupt so that capital and labor is better allocated elsewhere. Because the Fed is basically supporting private banks, and through them, the entire housing market and really the entire economy, the natural corrective methods through which the free market is supposed to ensure an efficient (not to mention moral) distribution of resources is broken.

As I said previously, the Obama administration rescued a zombified version of the post-Reagan (really post Carter) American economic system. That system no longer gives society what it once did (flaws and all). Intellectually you can see of evidence of the system's collapse in the fractured opinions of the technocrats who were supposed to run it. To name two examples of the pre-2008 consensus, people used to call Allen Greenspan "the maestro" and I think it was Larry Summers who said something to the effect of "we are all monetarists now". That consensus is broken, to say the least. You won't really find many monetarists anymore. What you will find are, on the American left, "Kenysians" who generally advocate more aggressive fiscal policy, and on the right, what basically amount to Austrians/neo-mellonists who advocate jacking interest rates or abolishing the Fed. How can you have a working system that doesn't even have an agreed upon set of ideas on how to run it and that fails on its own terms?

Neo-liberal is extremely hard to define. Sometimes it feels like it's only lassie-faire with the exception of monetary policy, sometimes it feels like full Keynesian just with less regulation. I guess even Larry Summers was pushing for more demand side stimulus, and he's a big time neo-liberal, so in that case maybe I have no qualms with the neo-liberal ideas to fix the problem.

My main problem is that the neo-liberals did not see it coming, or try to prevent it from happening in the first place. They still don't really have a good explanation for why it happened or how we can avoid it in the first place. Classical lasse-faire economists can cite the housing incentives, and Post-Keynesian economists can cite people like Minsky who was warning of speculative bubbles arising from the financial sector with no regulation, but how can neo-liberals explain it? I have not seen anything suggesting some form of regulation caused the problem, and the problem was way too large for a night watchmen approach to really take care of it before it caused major pain.

As far as I'm concerned, neo-liberals deserve the bad rap they get until they can give a good answer as to how to change something to make it not happen again.

Personally, I'm hesitant to use terms like neo-liberal because right now it functions more as an insult than anything else. If you just look at the word, with "neo" before the word "liberal", it literally means "a new or revived form of liberalism". The liberalism to which the label refers is the classical liberalism of the 19th century that emphasized free trade and laissez-faire economics. The "new" part of the label was emphasized during the 1930's when fascism, communism, and socialism emerged as serious ideological contenders to 19th century liberalism in the face of the economic failures of laissez-faire economics and unregulated capitalism in general, so liberal thinkers added a strong regulatory and state component to liberal ideology to ensure that market outcomes benefited the majority of people. In the 1970's I think the "revived" part of the label was emphasized to refer to the return of classical liberalism in the form the Austrian and Chicago schools. It was also during that time that the term began to be used a pejorative......

I any case, I agree that whatever you want it to call it, the pre-2008 consensus has a lot to be called to account for.

Also, I apologize for the long post. It's just that this topic fascinates me, so it is easy to write about when I should be doing something else.........
 

PantherLotus

Professional Schmuck
Not to be glib but "the system," whatever that is, worked as designed. Quibble -- however justly -- that it's imperfect or benefits the already obscenely wealthy all you want.
 

Hitokage

Setec Astronomer
No, it worked well enough for the period concerned. Obviously deep problems remain but it's like a machine covered in duct tape that continues to run instead of falling to pieces.
 
No, it worked well enough for the period concerned. Obviously deep problems remain but it's like a machine covered in duct tape that continues to run instead of falling to pieces.

This. I always have this feeling that our entire *system* is band-aided beyond belief and the whole thing comes crashing down, back to zero, in our lifetime. Only thing left standing will be the defense industry, perfectly and capably intact. Maybe we should not have bailed the banks and auto inudstry and let it burn to the ground. I dont know. But this prescription of band-aiding must stop.
 
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