Because someone might disagree with an article you posted?
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Edit:
Kerry's proposal draft has been leaked:
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PoliGAF 2014 |OT| Kay Hagan and the Terrible, Horrible, No Good, Very Bad News
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Edit:
Kerry's proposal draft has been leaked:
benjipwns
Banned
This is John Kerry's MO and has been for 30 years.
His entire 2004 campaign was structured around this notion that because he's John Fucking Kerry he can ride in anywhere and take charge and make things happen. He used to say the same kind of shit regarding the Soviets right before they collapsed.
But he's never had that power, his campaign was an internal disaster, he's never had the respect of his Senate colleagues like say, Biden and he's long considered it his destiny in life to diplomatically solve all the worlds problems somehow.
When it comes to Israel and Palestine though, he's not the only one with this idea, ever since Carter basically strong-armed Egypt into "peace" every President and Secretary of State has gotten a six month or more period where they're talking about how they're going to get peace done as their legacy. (Okay, okay, the meddling goes back further with the anti-Israel Eisenhower admin, and then the Nixon admins swap to the Israeli side.)
To W. Bush and Obama's credit, they both looked at it for a little bit and then went "nope, fuck that, let's go look at orthopedic joint manufacturing plants or something." Kerry doesn't have that bailout mentality since the only thing standing in his way in his mind is the fact that he's hasn't convinced them yet. Even somebody as smart as Clinton got lured into it, though he had need for some work distraction. He thought he got them 97% of the way there and the PLO responded with the Intifada.
Everybody falls for it:
Kerry is operating like pretty much every secretary of state before him.
And to say that Carter forced Egypt into peace is crazy revisionist history, if anyone, it was Sadat who forced Israel into it.
The American who gets the most credit for that is actually Henry Kissinger (as much as I hate that fucking asshole) and his work on The Agreement on Disengagement after the '73 war which set the foundation and framework for the peace deal.
benjipwns
Banned
What? How dare you besmirch the name of Jimmy Carter who had global peace at hand with his strong leadership and tough foreign policy until Ted Kennedy and Ronald Reagan snatched it away from him.
David Incorporated Esq.
Member
So why do talk shows bother inviting Lindsey Graham? He never says anything of substance and only appears to try to best his personal record of saying "This president's failed policies".
NYCmetsfan
Banned
(Responding and out)Because someone might disagree with an article you posted?
:
Edit:
Kerry's proposal draft has been leaked:
No because small quibbles and disagreements become the reason to dismiss wider points. And there seems to be two different versions on the proposal.
Edit: more context: http://www.timesofisrael.com/abbas-fumes-at-kerry-over-alternative-ceasefire-bid/
He pissed off Abu mazen, Hamas, Israel and Egypt. Congrats Kerry. Hope the Turkish and qatari praise is enough for you.
Coriolanus
Banned
And this is different from everything else about politics....how?
Giant Panda
Member
Yeah Kerry is doing a shit job by making such a reasonable proposal!
If the two sides are so against something reasonable like that then they didn't really care all that much yet to try to get a cease-fire.
If the two sides are so against something reasonable like that then they didn't really care all that much yet to try to get a cease-fire.
PhoenixDark
Banned
Another "Obama MIA" article
6 years in and they don't get it. I understand there is record brinksmanship, and some democrats in the article acknowledge that in many cases there isn't much Obama can do. But the fact that he doesn't do what he can do and has no interest in talking to congressional leaders baffles me. Especially months before a midterm when both sides are looking for easy victories they can brag about during August recess. Obama signed a bipartisan job training bill a few weeks ago, but outside of that he hasn't done much of anything recently. Well outside of weird public appearances and the ever changing WH narratives (one week it's climate change, one week it's jobs, etc).
http://talkingpointsmemo.com/news/lawmakers-unhappy-obama-leadership
6 years in and they don't get it. I understand there is record brinksmanship, and some democrats in the article acknowledge that in many cases there isn't much Obama can do. But the fact that he doesn't do what he can do and has no interest in talking to congressional leaders baffles me. Especially months before a midterm when both sides are looking for easy victories they can brag about during August recess. Obama signed a bipartisan job training bill a few weeks ago, but outside of that he hasn't done much of anything recently. Well outside of weird public appearances and the ever changing WH narratives (one week it's climate change, one week it's jobs, etc).
Aaron Strife
Banned
Democrats up 4 in CNN's generic ballot poll
If they win by about 5 they'd probably make some decent gains in the House. They'd have to win by at least 7 to win a majority though.
They also have Hillary beating Romney 55-42 in a poll where people would rather have Romney over Obama lol
If they win by about 5 they'd probably make some decent gains in the House. They'd have to win by at least 7 to win a majority though.
They also have Hillary beating Romney 55-42 in a poll where people would rather have Romney over Obama lol
WayneMorse
Banned
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/07/28/u...ate-chances-rise-slightly-to-60-percent-.html
NY Times now say Republicans have 60% chance of winning the Senate.
NY Times now say Republicans have 60% chance of winning the Senate.
This is bullshit.
I WON'T ACCEPT THIS I JUST WON'T ARGHHH
That can only tell me independents are really starting to get turned off by Obama. Which is both idiotic and tragic.
Because that worked so well the first 4 years.
Because someone might disagree with an article you posted?
:\
Edit:
Kerry's proposal draft has been leaked:
How shocking! No wonder it pissed everyone off!
Aaron Strife
Banned
This based on a series of YouGov polls, who are one of the worst pollsters in the business. Their methodology is terrible, it's online, they contact the same subset of people rather than going for a random sample, and they also weigh by party ID at which point you might as well just pull the topline numbers out of your ass.
In their final Senate polls of 2012, they favored the Republican candidate by an average of five points.
speculawyer
Member
Yeah . . . it is baffling. When he gets in office they declare a desire to make him a 1 term president. They call him Muslim. They call him Kenyan. The block EVERY thing he tries to do. They shut down the government. They call him racist. They shout "You lie!" during the state of the Union. They sue him. They call him a communist/socialist.
I can't imagine why he's not their best bud. It is completely baffling!?!?!?
Heh. Seems like I am forgetting about which pollsters suck these days...
Aaron Strife
Banned
From the same sample as the senate polls.Nate Cohn said:
Brownback up 13? yeah ok
NYCmetsfan
Banned
http://www.politico.com/story/2014/07/dc-gun-provision-struck-down-109414.html
This seems contrary to the heller decision. Maybe DC can reclaim the murder capital title?
This seems contrary to the heller decision. Maybe DC can reclaim the murder capital title?
Metaphoreus
This is semantics, and nothing more
How so?
zero shift
Banned
Jesus fuck is that Millennial Poll thread depressing. Has the younger generation learned anything?
You think it might be cause there wasn't a definitive strong government showing after the recession? The ghost of Reagan lives on.
Coriolanus
Banned
Consider that people tend to be self-centered. Now remember that people see the negatives far more easily than the positives. Now recall all those topics about college debt and a worse labor market.
Oh, they've learned quite a bit. Problem is, for a lot of them, they were the wrong lessons.
IIRC NPR had a debate on how shafted millenials were, and it was quite something. Give it a go. I quite liked (some of) the gen X'er points.
WayneMorse
Banned
The American people are fiscally conservative and socially liberal at heart.
American white people perhaps.
As I said in the other thread, progressive whites + growing number of minorities will drown a lot of this out. And there are only two major parties so if these people tend to lean left on social issues they'll continue to opt for voting Democratic. Now, if the GOP finally accepts gay marriage and goes as far as embracing it in their official platform, as well as marijuana, that could really cause a split in the young "left" depending on how self-centered they are. That could take some time, another 5-10 years I'd think. Once all of the drama within states settles it is going to get harder and harder to shun gay marriage on the campaign trail. Still, this emerging libertarian streak is alarming. We always say every 10 years we will continue to progress, the nation will continue to lean left... is it?
Seriously, we better hope the ongoing changes in demographics drown a lot of this out. Otherwise The Gipper has eternally fucked this nation.
I just want to point out that the majority of 30 & under's calling themselves Libertarians are either embarrassed Republicans, people who don't know shit about politics and don't want to sound like idiots, or are the most selfish people on Earth.
Every self-prescribed Libertarian I've ever met has the same values: hates the government (or just Obama), loves legalized drugs. And they all want the full protection that our police force and military provide, but don't want to foot the bill for that protection. They don't want welfare to be a thing, but support the biggest welfare program in political history: the military. I could go on.
In essence, they are a politically correct form of a hippy...
Every self-prescribed Libertarian I've ever met has the same values: hates the government (or just Obama), loves legalized drugs. And they all want the full protection that our police force and military provide, but don't want to foot the bill for that protection. They don't want welfare to be a thing, but support the biggest welfare program in political history: the military. I could go on.
In essence, they are a politically correct form of a hippy...
zero shift
Banned
If we're suppose to see a shift because of the minorities becoming the new majority than why are the young less left than the old when they should have more minorities?
PhoenixDark
Banned
All republicans need to do is stop being dicks on gay marriage and other social issues. It's going to take awhile, but eventually it'll happen. It's not surprising that young adults who entered adulthood during the "Yes We Can" era are completely disillusioned with politics: they can't find jobs and and have watched DC flail about for six years.
Nor are the comments about race/black people surprising. I think the vast majority of white people believe that racism is over/solved.
Where are you getting that the young are "less left" than the old? Is this still from the political typology thing? It doesn't show that at all.
Also black people are disproportionately lumped into the "Faith and Family Left" and "Hard-Pressed Skeptics" groups, which are both more likely to say that "the government should do more to help the needy" than the "Next Generation Left" group. Hispanics are very disproportionately in the "Bystanders" group, though some show up in the "Faith and Family Left" group and they make up a proportional part of the "Next Generation Left" and "Young Outsiders" groups.
I feel like that thread is mostly just full of people who have no idea how the study is actually going about determining its groupings.
speculawyer
Member
I don't know why this is so surprising? People are cheap and hypocritical. Who wants to pay their money to support the lives of other people . . . do you do that with your spare money?
This is part of the reason why Bill Clinton was so successful. He understood this impulse and triangulated with it.
NYCmetsfan
Banned
First of all I disagree with Heller so either way this case is absurd
But scalia seemed to go out of his way to say many restrictions in the place of carry and other restrictions such as prohibiting concealed carry are reasonable and permitted under their interpretation. The state or in this case the district has an interest in keeping guns off the street. This is a judge over ruling the DC people's desires because there's somehow a 'right' to carry a gun around where ever. People are allowed to have guns at home, where does it follow that this allows them to carry them in public?
The tortured logic of allowing a gun in 'public' but allowing prohibitions in certain areas (schools, hospitals) defies logic besides allowing for political not legal concerns the 'they can choose not to go there' is silly on its face (youre often requirded to go to these places) and also could be extended to the fact these people can just not go to DC.
It's the same thing as scalias machine gun comments its an artificial line drawn to save their logic from its natural conclusion. And its implicit recognition they don't think the 2nd amendment says what they claim what it says.
The court should overturn heller and return the second amendment to its historical and pre 2008 interpretation. I'm sick of gun owners wanting to make everyplace more dangerous because they live in the NRAs racist and fearful world.
speculawyer
Member
It is much more than that. They can't be so eager to deploy the military. They can't be so anti-science. They can't have such latent racism that anyone who is not blind can see.
And they CAN'T change position on various social issues. Gay marriage they can switch on (they won't have any choice) but they can't switch on abortion.
So they are stuck in a slow decline for now and flip-flopping on gay marriage is not going to save them.
JesseEwiak
Member
Yeah, I was surprised, then I realized what study they were talking about. When you take out a large chunk of African-American and Hispanic voters, it's not a surprise liberals suddenly look like libertarians who might like a slightly higher minimum wage.
As usual, white people are the problem. Good thing we're becoming a smaller and smaller part of the electorate.
The GOP's basic problem is that for the first time since after the Civil War, the Southern dominated party actually has to listen to the Southern base. For the first half of the 20th century, as long as you were against civil rights, you could do anything you wanted in DC, and it was a one party state anyhow. Then, from the 60's to the 00's, the rising GOP had such a hapless opponent federally in the South and there wasn't as much interconnecedness as before, so again, you could make deals with Bill Clinton and vote for food stamps. Now that every asshole in a small town in Alabama or Kansas realize there's a lot of other assholes likes him, including rich people, they can make Southern representatives and Senator's be as crazy as they are, or get knocked out of office.
zero shift
Banned
Right, I think you missed my point. That writeup does not do a good job of accurately representing what the study finds. I made several posts in that thread about how it's really misleading to talk about just those two groups as being "younger" and "older", relative to each other, since both cover a wide range of ages, are really close in average age, and have younger average ages than most of the other groups. But also those groups don't cover all Democrats and certainly don't represent the opinions of minorities as well as a group of all Democrats would, say. So it just doesn't make sense to look at that and ask why younger people are less left than older people when minorities are better-represented among younger people - the two groups aren't actually very well-segregated by age and both of them exclude minorities to some extent.
Edit: Hell, the "older group of Democrats" that the writeup is talking about includes more minorities than the "younger group of Democrats", and they have almost identical numbers percentage-wise, with both being more white than the population as a whole (to say nothing of just Democrats as a whole). And the "younger group of Democrats" is only 65% Democrat.
zero shift
Banned
So in other words...its a bullshit clickbait study?
I'd be very relieved.
I wonder where I can find any authentic studies?
JesseEwiak
Member
The study itself is fine, if a little weird in their typology. The article that was written on it is click baity.
Here's a better article (and poll) - http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2014/03/new-report-shows-young-liberals-own-the-future.html
Well, it's not really a study about what young people believe vs what old people believe. As far as I can tell it's a decent bit of cluster analysis, although they're not very transparent about how good their fit is. It's just the writeup (quoted but not linked to in that thread) which seems to go way too far in identifying the studies found in the cluster with demographic groups that we'd recognize as distinct.
The idea behind the study is to ask people a bunch of questions and then to run an algorithm which groups them according to how their answers cluster together. For example, if I asked people to rate The Avengers and The Dark Knight on a scale from 1-100, I might find a few things. I might find that answers on the two questions are correlated - people who like one tend to like the other. I might also find that opinions are polarized - instead of some people hating them both, some people disliking them both, some people being neutral on both, etc., I might find a large group that hated both and a large group that loved both, with scattered answers elsewhere. It'd make sense to talk about these two clusters as distinct groups, and I could look and see what else was going on there.
Same idea here. The groups aren't divided by age or party affiliation or race or anything like that. They're asked a bunch of these political questions and then they're sorted into clusters based on how their answers bunch up. And the study finds that there are these distinct ideological groups, among which are a group of solid liberals and also a group of social liberals who are squishy on the safety net. Now, it's not clear how natural these clusters are - it's not obvious that people's answers really did bunch up like in the polarized movie example I gave or if the study is just drawing arbitrary lines the way you'd have to do in a non-polarized movie case (maybe you just say that everyone who gave the movies an average score of >50 is in one group and everyone who gave them an average score of <50 is in another). But anyway, these groups are clustered by political beliefs, so they overlap a lot when we start talking demographics. The demographics are useful information, but mostly what this is for is for identifying ideological clusters.
zero shift
Banned
^^^Thanks. It seems that the thread was very misleading.
Thanks. Wow it really does seem to be a minority thing. Though young whites have moved to the left a bit it has seemed. And man I'm shocked how many youths voted for Reagan. I wonder when the streams will cross and we'll have a pink tide for America?
Thanks. Wow it really does seem to be a minority thing. Though young whites have moved to the left a bit it has seemed. And man I'm shocked how many youths voted for Reagan. I wonder when the streams will cross and we'll have a pink tide for America?
RustyNails
Member
I have a question. Is the ban bet only on PD? if PD wins the bet, does he get to pick Aaron's avatar?
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-...bitcoin-believers-to-supplant-the-dollar.html
If you weren't into the short selling scam I posted a while ago you might like this one.
Aaron Strife
Banned
Avatar bet either way. He loses, I pick his and vice-versa.
Also since it's three races (AR, IA, NC) I'd assume getting 2 out of 3 would count as winning the bet but whatever
ErasureAcer
Banned
No it won't. These people believe their hate is in accordance with God's will. They're not going to give up their beliefs (and their presumed ticket to heaven) to get elected to public office.
I don't think it's safe to assume they believe in anything but money.
Nah, they believe the religious right helps them win elections. When that stops happening, they will change..
You answered your own question. Bashing Obama and blaming him for everything under the sun is trendy
T
thepotatoman
Unconfirmed Member
I wonder if fiscal conservativism could survive the death of social conservativism as well as that study might say. It seems to me there'd be a lot of people who would be more fiscally liberal if they didn't have a reason to be stuck in the conservative eco system where fiscal conservativism is part of the package.
Looking at it like that, it actually wouldn't be that surprising to see a complete swap of liberal states and conservative states, where southern states are considered liberal while california and new york and the like turns conservative.
Looking at it like that, it actually wouldn't be that surprising to see a complete swap of liberal states and conservative states, where southern states are considered liberal while california and new york and the like turns conservative.
I just got into it last night with a 20-yr old kid on my TL over this:
http://www.quartertothree.com/game-...venment-doing-it-better&p=3607899#post3607899
Made me angry that kids are going the wrong way these days. Maybe some piledrivers will scramble his brain in the right direction.
QUOTE=thepotatoman;122986027]I wonder if fiscal conservativism could survive the death of social conservativism as well as that study might say. It seems to me there'd be a lot of people who would be more fiscally liberal if they didn't have a reason to be stuck in the conservative eco system where fiscal conservativism is part of the package.
Looking at it like that, it actually wouldn't be that surprising to see a complete swap of liberal states and conservative states, where southern states are considered liberal while california and new york and the like turns conservative.[/QUOTE]
Both will survive, what I would find interesting is if the Dems ended up catering to Social Conservatives in the South while keeping progressivism economically- and you'd have a libertarian but pro-crony capitalism Dems vs a religious left Republican party influenced by Moral Mondays.
This isn't a prediction but a possibility. I'd probably switch to the Republicans in such a scenario.
I do think post-Obama white kids are less inclined towards social justice issues that involve color, and are less trustful of government in general due to the disfunction, but that doesn't make them all libertarians (thankfully).
Orbis Tabula
Member
I love this guy's name. Anthem Hayek Blanchard. That's awesome in so many ways.
I'm glad that young people in Europe actually have demonstrated against austerity and shown a sense of social awareness, they care about their community though many are also skeptical and disenfranchised from the political process.
United States however. I can't even begin to understand how, looking at the polls, conservatives have the edge on foreign policy and young people actually believe big business is helping society while the divide between different income groups is drastically growing. Student debt has exploded, corporations have no sense of social responsibility and minority groups suffer from discrimination.
With a mindset like that you can put that transatlantic trade and investment partnership in your pipe (dream) and smoke it.
United States however. I can't even begin to understand how, looking at the polls, conservatives have the edge on foreign policy and young people actually believe big business is helping society while the divide between different income groups is drastically growing. Student debt has exploded, corporations have no sense of social responsibility and minority groups suffer from discrimination.
With a mindset like that you can put that transatlantic trade and investment partnership in your pipe (dream) and smoke it.
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