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PoliGAF 2014 |OT| Kay Hagan and the Terrible, Horrible, No Good, Very Bad News

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I wonder if fiscal conservativism could survive the death of social conservativism as well as that study might say. It seems to me there'd be a lot of people who would be more fiscally liberal if they didn't have a reason to be stuck in the conservative eco system where fiscal conservativism is part of the package.

Looking at it like that, it actually wouldn't be that surprising to see a complete swap of liberal states and conservative states, where southern states are considered liberal while california and new york and the like turns conservative.


That... huh. That's actually really interesting. Loads of folks do vote dem due to social issues, and then grumble about their meh economic agenda. Wonder if there's a lot of the same thing going on in the conservative side, where people are Fuck The GayBlackMexicans, but want more social services. I'd been looking at it as a single package of fuck big government and minorities all along.
 
I wonder if fiscal conservativism could survive the death of social conservativism as well as that study might say. It seems to me there'd be a lot of people who would be more fiscally liberal if they didn't have a reason to be stuck in the conservative eco system where fiscal conservativism is part of the package.

Looking at it like that, it actually wouldn't be that surprising to see a complete swap of liberal states and conservative states, where southern states are considered liberal while california and new york and the like turns conservative.

Yeah, I've often imagined the future of our country ending up like this. You have a lot of young liberals, but only due to social issues. Many of them are very libertarian. We could be on the cusp of a pretty sudden political realignment once we reach a point where issue like gay marriage and Marijuana are considered settled. When economic issues take over, many states will flip in some crazy ways.
 
I wonder if fiscal conservativism could survive the death of social conservativism as well as that study might say. It seems to me there'd be a lot of people who would be more fiscally liberal if they didn't have a reason to be stuck in the conservative eco system where fiscal conservativism is part of the package.

Looking at it like that, it actually wouldn't be that surprising to see a complete swap of liberal states and conservative states, where southern states are considered liberal while california and new york and the like turns conservative.

Well this is how thing were up until 1968. Though as Gotchaeye said the thread was a bit misleading in suggesting this is how the youth feel as a whole. This would suck though as I would have no idea who to vote for. Then again hating on minorities and wanting to help the poor is kind of an oxymoron as minorities tend to make a huge chunk of the poor. It's similar to wanting to help poor families but hating single mothers or something.

I'm glad that young people in Europe actually have demonstrated against austerity and shown a sense of social awareness, they care about their community though many are also skeptical and disenfranchised from the political process.

Looking at the polls the biggest conservative wave by far is coming to the United Kingdom.

United States however. I can't even begin to understand how, looking at the polls, conservatives have the edge on foreign policy and young people actually believe big business is helping society while the divide between different income groups is drastically growing. Student debt has exploded, corporations have no sense of social responsibility and minority groups suffer from discrimination.

With a mindset like that you can put that transatlantic trade and investment partnership in your pipe (dream) and smoke it.

The US is going further left but I will admit not enough. It is understandable though. Capitalism in the 21st Century explains that a big reason why Americans tend to be so much more pro-business than Europeans is due to the fact that throughout American history the nation's economy often thrived as the economy was friendly toward business (with the obvious exception of the Great Depression). In comparison Europe has different experiences with bringing business as a huge focus of the economy (mainly due to having more of a fleshed out history of capitalism than America does.
 
I just want to point out that the majority of 30 & under's calling themselves Libertarians are either embarrassed Republicans, people who don't know shit about politics and don't want to sound like idiots, or are the most selfish people on Earth.

Every self-prescribed Libertarian I've ever met has the same values: hates the government (or just Obama), loves legalized drugs. And they all want the full protection that our police force and military provide, but don't want to foot the bill for that protection. They don't want welfare to be a thing, but support the biggest welfare program in political history: the military. I could go on.

In essence, they are a politically correct form of a hippy...

More or less. Although in my time I've met plenty of anti-military libertarians.
 

Wilsongt

Member
Hey guys, long time no post. Anyone mind filling me in in what has been going on in politics in the last two months?

Impeachment
Anti-immigration
More money to Israel
Impeachment
Everything is Obama's fault
Democrats to lose Senate in Republican wave
Impeachment
Thanks, Obama
Impeachment
Lawsuit against Obama

That about sums it up. You didn't miss anything important.
 

bananas

Banned
Impeachment
Anti-immigration
More money to Israel
Impeachment
Everything is Obama's fault
Democrats to lose Senate in Republican wave
Impeachment
Thanks, Obama
Impeachment
Lawsuit against Obama

That about sums it up. You didn't miss anything important.

But what about Kay Hagan?
 
The bottom line is this: Scalia didn't decide the Halbig question in NFIB. For all we know, he was never aware there was a question like that presented in Halbig. Because the issue was not raised, there's no basis for concluding that Scalia considered the question and intended to answer it in NFIB.

I already explained why this is irrelevant.

But set all my other arguments aside. Let's say that you're right, and Scalia assumed that the subsidies would be available on the federal exchanges. Why should he be held to that assumption in the face of arguments he was unaware of at that time? In other words, why shouldn't he be able to change his mind once he discovers that the IRS rule isn't as ironclad as he had initially been led to believe?

In ordinary circumstances, you wouldn't hold anyone to such a high standard. Imagine if Scalia and Ginsburg went to see Inception, and upon exiting, Scalia turned to Ginsburg and said, "I can't believe it was all a dream!" Then, two years later, Ginsburg emails Scalia, exclaiming, "Oh my God, Nino! I just read that the top wasn't Leo's totem at all! The totem was his wedding band!" Should Scalia be prohibited from changing his opinion on the question because of his statement two years prior, or would you grant him the prerogative to incorporate newly available information in deciding the issue? The fact that Scalia's statement in NFIB came in a court opinion doesn't change anything compared with the above example. The salient facts remain the same: Scalia made a statement at Time X based on information available then, and later receives new information that calls his Time-X statement into question.

But there is no new information brought to light in the Halbig case. None. Zero. All they've done is argue a technicality which existed in 2010.

Here's how Ginsburg dealt with a similar problem to the one you're attempting to foist upon Scalia; namely, the fact that her dissent in Hobby Lobby expressed a contrary view to an opinion she joined in City of Boerne v. Flores: "Concerning that observation, I remind my colleagues of Justice Jackson's sage comment: 'I see no reason why I should be consciously wrong today because I was unconsciously wrong yesterday.'"

No one disagrees with this statement.


Yes, I do understand your point. And it's wrong. A reader doesn't have to conclude that Mamba shot Metaphoreus. But there was one part of this that I didn't address: let's say that Scalia wrote a book report about your novel two years ago, and in it, stated that Mamba shot Metaphoreus dead. Now, two years later, let's say someone offers him some new arguments that call that view into question. Is Scalia permitted to repudiate his prior interpretation?

yes, they do, because had I wrote the actual book, any argument against it would be nonsensical.

You are like someone who would argue Leia wasn't Luke's sister after SW:ESB simply because no one out right said it. Every argument against that notion was nosense (even before the new trilogy showed the birth).



Here's my problem with this: you could know jack shit about the law and the majority opinion in Halbig and still make this argument. If I'm going to engage in a discussion about whether the D.C. Circuit considered 36B in the context of the whole statute, I need some indication that you're not just yanking my chain and expecting me to go about disproving a point you haven't even tried to support with evidence.

Their conclusions proves it. In order to make the ruling they made, the only way it's logically possible is to ignore the context of the entire bill. Because the ruling is nonsense.

And, for all the ridicule some of you think is deserved by the Halbig and King challengers, bear in mind that three of the four appellate judges who ruled against the challengers concluded the statute was ambiguous. They didn't reject the challengers' arguments out of hand--they said they couldn't determine which argument was right, and so the IRS was entitled to decide.

Because appellate court judges have to be PC if they want a shot of moving up to the SCOTUS, but if they were still in a lower district court, they'd do what others have done and mocked them. Even in their opinions, they've pretty much mocked them subtlety. Also, most judges will intentionally use deference to the legislature or executive if their decision doesn't change the outcome where they can so as to avoid any conflict. This is why they will cite "unambiguous" when it's not. Just to avoid making a legal determination one way or the other, which also negatively affects their career.


You say this a lot, and you shouldn't. We're not arguing over what to call something (i.e., "semantics").

Semantics is more than that, but whatever.

Finally, you want to know what I believe about whether the ACA provides subsidies on federal exchanges. I've already answered this question: I find the challengers' (and Halbig majority's) argument persuasive. That's not to say I can point to an individual member of Congress who subjectively believed that subsidies would be limited to state-established exchanges when he or she voted on the ACA. It means I can look at the text and see a persuasive argument that it means what it says.

This doesn't answer my question at all.

Do you believe the ACA gives subsidies through the federal exchanges? Stop trying to answer this like a politician.
 

Metaphoreus

This is semantics, and nothing more
Fisky response incoming (but you can't say it wasn't deserved).

I already explained why this is irrelevant.

I've already explained why I'm right and you're wrong.

But there is no new information brought to light in the Halbig case. None. Zero. All they've done is argue a technicality which existed in 2010.

Just as there was no new information when Ginsburg said Leo's totem was his wedding band in Inception. "None. Zero."

yes, they do, because had I wrote the actual book, any argument against it would be nonsensical.

If I had the actual book in hand, I could look at the additional context in the book to make a determination one way or the other. What little of the book you've written is ambiguous.

Their conclusions proves it. In order to make the ruling they made, the only way it's logically possible is to ignore the context of the entire bill. Because the ruling is nonsense.

You're begging the question, not making a real argument.

This doesn't answer my question at all.

Do you believe the ACA gives subsidies through the federal exchanges? Stop trying to answer this like a politician.

No, I don't.
 
Just as there was no new information when Ginsburg said Leo's totem was his wedding band in Inception. "None. Zero."

Except finding out that it was his totem was new information. (actually, the whole movie was a dream IMO) but you're comparing a movie that is intentionally trying to make you debate the ending to a legislative act that is intending to be definitive.

Do you see the flaw?

If I had the actual book in hand, I could look at the additional context in the book to make a determination one way or the other. What little of the book you've written is ambiguous.

Given the context of my argument, you wouldn't need the additional context of the book. But admitting that would lend yourself to accepting my entire argument so....

Of course, I gave you the stars wars example as a backup to help, yet you stayed focus on the book example.

You're begging the question, not making a real argument.

No. I'm saying their conclusion in nonsense given the entirety of the context. You reject that answer and want to create a sideshow by having me pick out one passage. I won't play your game which is a ruse. Which is what the DC court did. They took out snippets of the ACA and did not compare it to a broader context. It's nowhere to be found in their Opinion.

Just because they put pen to paper saying they considered the context doesn't mean they considered the context. But that seems to be your argument.
No, I don't.

Then I can't take you seriously as a poster anymore because I have to believe you're being a partisan hack. I don't think this question is remotely debatable and claiming such could only come from a troll or a partisan, IMO.

The notion that the ACA was written to have the federal exchanges without subsidies is so fucking nonsensical and bizarre there are no other logical conclusions. Which I find sad in this case cuz prior to today, I had believed the opposite about your posts.
 

Wilsongt

Member
This "debate"...

wIxN7.gif
 

benjipwns

Banned
Look who now has egg on their face:
I'm glad thinkprogress is there to tell us of every stupid bill that had no chance of passing
Scary conservative click baiting headlines on things that have no chance of ever coming to pass on MY ThinkProgress? Surely you jest!
Because it's more than often just a liberal circle jerk that nobody else cares about? Sometimes a Todd Akin emerges who becomes a national story, but more often than not Daily Kos, this thread, Media Matters, etc spend a whole lot of time focusing on stuff that no one is outraged about except for a few liberals.

I've pretty much disengaged from most liberal blogs because it just boils down to either "x said y and the so called liberal media isn't reporting it!" or "why x isn't really bad news for Obama/democrats/etc." Meanwhile the president's polls crash on nearly every issue. Hispanics aren't happy about his handling of the border "crisis," which really makes me think they'll throw a hail marry on that immigration executive order and thus fuck over red state democrats.

http://thinkprogress.org/immigration/2014/07/27/3464604/bachmann-work-camps-migrant-children/
Rep. Michele Bachmann (R-MN) has an unusual solution to the crisis of unaccompanied migrant children coming across America’s southern border: put them in camps and put them to work.

KCTV7 News in Kansas City reported last week that Bachmann proposed the idea of “Americanization Facilities” where the children would be put to work to pay off the costs of their past, present and futures care. In exchange, the children would also be fast-tracked on a path to citizenship. “I’m calling on all of us, Obama and Congress and everyone, to chip in and build special new facilities… ‘Americanization facilities,’ if you will,” Bachmann told Minnesota’s Twin Cities News Talk. “And we’d send these kids to these facilities, in Arizona and Texas and wherever else. And we’d get private sector business leaders to locate to those facilities and give these children low-risk jobs to do. And they’d learn about the American way of life, earn their keep, and everyone wins in the end.”

When pressed by conservative radio host Jason Lewis about what life would be like in the camps, Bachmann elaborated that the purpose would also be to inculcate the children into English-speaking American culture. “Well, we’d of course want these facilities to be ideal, you know, for the children to work and learn,” Bachmann continued. “They’d spend half of their day working, and the other half learning what every child should learn, and that’s English, you know, English and American history. And as soon as they learn English with some degree of fluency, they can attend local schools, maybe with a voucher program, or something like that. And then they could work when they aren’t in school.”

...

Despite the hardships they already face, Bachmann argued her plan would rebound to the benefit of the children by allowing them to take advantage of job opportunities in the states. “I think this is a great way to bring businesses into the Texas and Arizona areas, and maybe other states struggling with low employment opportunities, thanks mostly to Obama’s policies,” Bachmann said. “It’s about opportunity, not just for these kids but for the American people.”

“It helps the businesses, and if we can raise fifty-thousand God-fearing, English-speaking Americans, who understand real American values, then I’d say it’s a job well done.”
 

Metaphoreus

This is semantics, and nothing more
Then I can't take you seriously as a poster anymore because I have to believe you're being a partisan hack. I don't think this question is remotely debatable and claiming such could only come from a troll or a partisan, IMO.

The notion that the ACA was written to have the federal exchanges without subsidies is so fucking nonsensical and bizarre there are no other logical conclusions. Which I find sad in this case cuz prior to today, I had believed the opposite about your posts.

I'll get back to the other parts of your post later. But I don't understand what you find so hard to believe about Congress offering credits as an inducement for states to establish their own exchanges. Remember, this is the same statute in which Congress, in an attempt to expand Medicaid coverage, threatened to destroy Medicaid in any state that didn't expand it. And yet the credits-as-inducement view is so absurd that you don't think anyone could hold it unless the person is a hack or a troll?
 
I'll get back to the other parts of your post later. But I don't understand what you find so hard to believe about Congress offering credits as an inducement for states to establish their own exchanges. Remember, this is the same statute in which Congress, in an attempt to expand Medicaid coverage, threatened to destroy Medicaid in any state that didn't expand it. And yet the credits-as-inducement view is so absurd that you don't think anyone could hold it unless the person is a hack or a troll?

Your example proves my point. Everyone knew about the medicaid threat, including the states. Nobody knew about this so-called exchange threat. Not a single state. Not a single reporter that reported on the inner workings of the law at the time of its crafting and passage. It never came up in any way, shape, or form from any lawmaker in any context.

It would also be absurd to create a federal exchange without the subsidies. Literally no reason to do it. The law would simply deny subsidies to states that didn't set up an exchange and no federal exchange would be set up. What's the purpose of the federal exchange without the subsidies? Why code into the law that the federal exchanges need to know your income if for anything but subsidies? Etc etc.

Of course Congress could have created a law that requires a state-run exchange for subsidies. But it's so fucking obvious that they didn't. How is it that no one noticed it 4 years later!?!? Not a single lawmaker or reporter can recall this being a topic over the numerous months the bill was crafted. Not a single one of them complained years ago that the federal exchanges were being done wrong?

What kind of reality is this?
 

GhaleonEB

Member
I'll get back to the other parts of your post later. But I don't understand what you find so hard to believe about Congress offering credits as an inducement for states to establish their own exchanges. Remember, this is the same statute in which Congress, in an attempt to expand Medicaid coverage, threatened to destroy Medicaid in any state that didn't expand it. And yet the credits-as-inducement view is so absurd that you don't think anyone could hold it unless the person is a hack or a troll?

The bill would not offer an incentive to the states which, if not taken, would undercut the entire point of the bill.

It was clear during the development of the bill that the authors intended to offer credits on the federal exchanges. It was crystal clear all through the two years of development that this was the intent and purpose.
 

Metaphoreus

This is semantics, and nothing more
The bill would not offer an incentive to the states which, if not taken, would undercut the entire point of the bill.

But the statute did just that. As I explained in the post you quoted, part of the purpose of the statute was to expand Medicaid coverage. So, it said that states could do so, or not. If they did so, they'd get additional funding. If they didn't do so, not only would they not get the additional funding, they'd lose all Medicaid funding whatsoever.
 
Not only that, but this time in 2010 the polls were also trending more to the GOP while the last couple months they trended more towards Dems.

Also, good news on medicare spending today. Projected much lower going forward, again. Thanks, Obama!
Exactly. Early on in this election cycle, Republicans were trying to use generic ballot numbers to show Democrats in the same place they were in 2009, as a prelude to a bad election for the Ds - ignoring that the Democrats' poll numbers didn't slip until after PPACA was passed.

Still hoping Democrats' position in the generic ballot will continue to improve, until they're up by about 5 or so. Good economic news coupled with Republican shittery (impeachment?) could go a ways towards that.
 

Gotchaye

Member
I think Mamba's right that the two examples are very different. Like, I read Metaphoreus' post and my first reaction was that, in light of the Medicaid example, I can be more confident that someone's going badly wrong if they're sincerely endorsing the credits-as-inducement view. When Congress wants to threaten states in this way, it's got no problem being clear that that's what it's doing.
 

Metaphoreus

This is semantics, and nothing more
I think Mamba's right that the two examples are very different. Like, I read Metaphoreus' post and my first reaction was that, in light of the Medicaid example, I can be more confident that someone's going badly wrong if they're sincerely endorsing the credits-as-inducement view. When Congress wants to threaten states in this way, it's got no problem being clear that that's what it's doing.

There is actually a rule of statutory interpretation that's roughly as you describe. However, that rule can't transform a lack of authorization into an authorization. Simply because Congress can state an ultimatum in the way that it did with Medicaid doesn't mean that it must. If the text of the statute only authorizes subsidies on the state exchanges, it doesn't matter that Congress doesn't expressly negate subsidies on the federal exchanges.
 

benjipwns

Banned
Nobody knew about this so-called exchange threat.
Except Jonathan Gruber apparently.

Not a single reporter that reported on the inner workings of the law at the time of its crafting and passage.
...
Not a single lawmaker or reporter can recall this being a topic over the numerous months the bill was crafted. Not a single one of them complained years ago that the federal exchanges were being done wrong?
Michael Cannon? His goes back to 2011 at least.
 

GhaleonEB

Member
But the statute did just that. As I explained in the post you quoted, part of the purpose of the statute was to expand Medicaid coverage. So, it said that states could do so, or not. If they did so, they'd get additional funding. If they didn't do so, not only would they not get the additional funding, they'd lose all Medicaid funding whatsoever.

And as has been pointed out many times, that example was was made explicit in the bill, rather than being buried deep into the text, requiring a close and very limited reading of it. When Congress intends something such as that, they generally make it pretty clear. We don't need to sit here and scrutinize the language to try and parse their intent.
 
There is actually a rule of statutory interpretation that's roughly as you describe. However, that rule can't transform a lack of authorization into an authorization. Simply because Congress can state an ultimatum in the way that it did with Medicaid doesn't mean that it must. If the text of the statute only authorizes subsidies on the state exchanges, it doesn't matter that Congress doesn't expressly negate subsidies on the federal exchanges.

You're missing the point. The point is that if the states were threatened with a lack of subsidies, why didn't they know? Basically, for like 3 years nobody knew anything about this so-called threat. It was only when a bunch of asshats pissed off that the ACA was happening tried to find something new to argue that this came up. Literally, no single state, congressman, or reporter was aware of this threat. How is this remotely possible?

Except Jonathan Gruber apparently.

Not a congressman or reporter. Also was answering a question on information exchanges and lacked context. Furthermore, every reporter has vouched that Gruber when he was involved never indicated any such threat during the time when the law was being crafted.

Michael Cannon? His goes back to 2011 at least.

Michael Cannon reported on lawmakers claiming it was a threat during the crafting of the bill. Link, please.

There are reporters whose entire job since around 2009/2010 has been to report on the ACA, from its crafting all the way through how it works today and the Court challenges...and not a single one can verify the notion that the bill was threatening states into subsidies. Not one. The topic never came up at any point in time.

The entire case is based on a technicality. It is like the bully who grabs your arm and makes you hit yourself in the face screaming "stop hitting yourself. Stop hitting yourself," and people trying to argue the kid is, in fact, hitting himself.
 

benjipwns

Banned
Michael Cannon reported on lawmakers claiming it was a threat during the crafting of the bill. Link, please.
No, but he's the originator of the reporting from the statutory language which obviously wasn't available before the bill existed. So that's at least one person, no?

Not a congressman or reporter. Also was answering a question on information exchanges and lacked context.
He stated it on three different occasions in 2012:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LbMmWhfZyEI
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fA243Q4vSIQ
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GtnEmPXEpr0
 

Oblivion

Fetishing muscular manly men in skintight hosery
Um...question.

If Obama's (and his allies') original plan was to intentionally keep subsidies limited to state exchanges because, according to Gruber, doing so would force Republicans in those states to cooperate under threat of losing millions/billions in subsidies....

...then why the hell are Obama and the Dems disputing the DC ruling against the subsidies?! I mean, if this was the original plan, then everything's going according to plan, isn't it?
 

Metaphoreus

This is semantics, and nothing more
And as has been pointed out many times, that example was was made explicit in the bill, rather than being buried deep into the text, requiring a close and very limited reading of it. When Congress intends something such as that, they generally make it pretty clear. We don't need to sit here and scrutinize the language to try and parse their intent.

You're moving the goalposts. I understand that the above is an argument against my position, but it's not the argument that you made in your last post, and to which I responded. That argument was that Congress wouldn't "offer an incentive to the states which, if not taken, would undercut" the purpose for which Congress enacted a statute. I mean, I get it, you guys want me to read into the text of statutes and forum posts content that just isn't there, but you're pushing it a bit at this point.
 
T

thepotatoman

Unconfirmed Member
You're moving the goalposts. I understand that the above is an argument against my position, but it's not the argument that you made in your last post, and to which I responded. That argument was that Congress wouldn't "offer an incentive to the states which, if not taken, would undercut" the purpose for which Congress enacted a statute. I mean, I get it, you guys want me to read into the text of statutes and forum posts content that just isn't there, but you're pushing it a bit at this point.

I really don't get where you're coming from. It's not like this is a difference of opinion here, you're arguing from a point that's just straight up blind to all the news and events that lead to the passage of the bill and immediate aftermath if you're really going to pretend there's a good reason to believe that they intentionally put it there as a threat. It just absolutely makes no sense that a threat like that would be so obscure throughout the entire process.

It's not like you have to accept our exact interpretation, but that doesn't excuse your interpretation from being just completely at odds with reality.
 
MIT economist Jonathan Gruber's off-the-cuff comments about Obamacare's subsidies are the exception that proves the rule: they're getting so much attention precisely because they're the only example where anyone even appears to believe that Congress, without telling anyone, decided to turn Obamacare into an absolute disaster by withholding subsidies from states that didn't set up their own insurance exchanges.

The result is perverse: in recent days, Gruber's comments are getting more attention than testimony from the Democratic and Republican congressional aides who wrote the bill. They're getting more attention than what the Congressional Budget Office (which Gruber advised) was told by Congress. They're getting more attention than the recollections of the very best reporters who covered Obamacare — notably Sarah Kliff and Julie Rovner. They're getting more attention than the debate in every state that chose to use a federal exchange. They're getting more attention than the way the Obama administration understood (and implemented) the law. They're getting more attention than the way the Supreme Court interpreted the law in 2012.
They're getting more attention, in fact, than everything else Gruber has ever said or written about the law.
This is a guy who cared so deeply about Obamacare's success that he literally published a comic book about it. His most important contribution to the Obamacare debate — technical simulations used by HHS that modeled how many people would get insurance under different scenarios — always assumed subsidies reached into every state. No journalist who interviewed Gruber (myself included) ever heard him mention that states that don't set up exchanges don't receive subsidies. He himself says he never believed that and the off-the-cuff comments were "speak-os".

This is like uncovering tape of Michael Bay saying there's nothing he hates seeing more in a movie than an explosion. It requires us to throw out pretty much everything Gruber has done publicly and instead believe that he thought dozens of states would be implementing Obamacare without subsidies — a nightmare of a policy outcome that would have given him a nervous breakdown — but the only times he ever mentioned it were at two Q&A sessions in 2012.

Gruber's comments aren't getting so much attention because anyone actually believes them. They're getting so much attention because some people want other people to believe them.

It would be much simpler if the argument about Obamacare could simply be about what it's actually about: some people believe the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act is a good law. Others believe it's a bad law and they would like to see it repealed.

The problem is that the people who believe it's a bad law haven't won the elections necessary to repeal it. So they've turned, in desperation, to the courts. But the Supreme Court doesn't strike laws down for being bad. It strikes them down for being unconstitutional, or incomprehensible. And that's forced Obamacare's critics to make some very weird and very weak arguments.

The Halbig challenge has led to one of those arguments. There's a version of this challenge that makes some sense. The argument is that Democrats, in their haste to pass the bill, worded a key sentence poorly. Congress's intent is perfectly clear in the law but the Supreme Court's five Republican appointees should rely on a "plain text" reading of the law as an excuse to gut the bill. (As is often the case in legal fights over politically polarized topics, opinions on the legal question are driven by opinions on the political question: I have yet to find anyone who believes the Supreme Court should rule for Halbig who doesn't also believe Obamacare should be repealed.)

But Obamacare's opponents don't feel very good about making that case. It sounds too much like winning by cheating. And what are conservatives who previously condemned "legislating from the bench" to say if the Supreme Court's five Republican appointees overrule Congress's clear intent so they can take health-insurance subsidies away from millions of people?

And so a stronger version of the Halbig claim has emerged: that Congress really did intend to withhold subsidies from states that didn't set up their own exchanges — they just didn't tell anybody or ever debate it, no journalists or health wonks found out about it during the legislative process, and no one involved in the writing of the bill thought to mention it while Obamacare was being implemented. This is less a serious theory about Obamacare than an attempt to pull off a Jedi mind trick.

This stronger version of Halbig was mostly ignored until Gruber's comments: his remarks are the first that even plausibly seem like they back this thesis, despite the fact that they're not reflected in any of Gruber's work and Gruber says he misspoke.

But then the point isn't that anyone actually believes the stronger version of the Halbig claim. Rather, there are a lot of people who believe Obamacare is a bad law, and right now, pretending to believe the more ridiculous version of Halbig seems like the most promising path to wounding it. And so here we are.
http://www.vox.com/2014/7/28/5942933/Obamacare-Halbig-Gruber
 

benjipwns

Banned
I don't see what's odd about "nobody talking about it" during the process, why did the government wind up issuing so many waivers and other changes later if everyone knew what was in the bill before it passed?

Congress as an institution passes shit individual members don't know what's in the bills all the time. Let alone the press which barely pays any attention other than vote counts and wranglings anyway.
And what are conservatives who previously condemned "legislating from the bench" to say if the Supreme Court's five Republican appointees overrule Congress's clear intent so they can take health-insurance subsidies away from millions of people?
The same thing they said about a "humble foreign policy" or cutting government spending or following the Constitution or government spying or...

Also lol at "off-the-cuff" comments and "misspoke" still. Time to throw Gruber under the bus, not spin him out of trouble.
 

Metaphoreus

This is semantics, and nothing more
Except finding out that it was his totem was new information. (actually, the whole movie was a dream IMO) but you're comparing a movie that is intentionally trying to make you debate the ending to a legislative act that is intending to be definitive.

Do you see the flaw?

Just as the fact that the ACA calculates the credit available to a taxpayer with reference to who established the exchange is (or could be) new information to Justice Scalia. Again, even taking as given that Scalia's dictum in NFIB signifies what you say it does, that doesn't mean that he carefully considered the question presented by Halbig and made a determination. What he had before him in that case were the arguments and representations regarding the law by those parties, not the arguments and representations regarding the law by the Halbig challengers.

The distinction you identify between my Inception analogy and Scalia's comments in NFIB is immaterial. Whether a subject of interpretation is intended to be ambiguous or unambiguous, a person can make a mistake in interpreting that subject, and correct that mistaken interpretation upon receiving new (or old but not considered) information.

Given the context of my argument, you wouldn't need the additional context of the book. But admitting that would lend yourself to accepting my entire argument so....

Of course, I gave you the stars wars example as a backup to help, yet you stayed focus on the book example.

I don't think your Star Wars analogy works. You'd be on firmer footing if Scalia had said, "No, exchanges established by the federal government have the same powers as exchanges established by the states. The subsidies are strong with the exchanges. California has them. Massachusetts has them. Federal exchanges have them." (With a knowing look at the Solicitor General, who suddenly blushes upon remembering that passionate kiss they shared to make Justice Kagan jealous.)

As for your book, you're changing it. If you intended that I take as given that the entire book makes unambiguous that Mamba killed Metaphoreus, you should have told me from the outset. It certainly would have made clearer that you were begging the question there, too.

No. I'm saying their conclusion in nonsense given the entirety of the context. You reject that answer and want to create a sideshow by having me pick out one passage. I won't play your game which is a ruse. Which is what the DC court did. They took out snippets of the ACA and did not compare it to a broader context. It's nowhere to be found in their Opinion.

So long as we don't have to support our arguments with actual citations to the opinion, I can confidently state that the D.C. Circuit considered 36B in context of each other section of the ACA, individually; all sections of the ACA, together; and every possible combination of two or more sections, too.

It would also be absurd to create a federal exchange without the subsidies. Literally no reason to do it. The law would simply deny subsidies to states that didn't set up an exchange and no federal exchange would be set up. What's the purpose of the federal exchange without the subsidies? Why code into the law that the federal exchanges need to know your income if for anything but subsidies? Etc etc.

The purpose of the exchanges is not merely to parcel out tax credits. One of its apparently lesser-known roles is as a marketplace for policies of health insurance. That is, you can go to http://www.healthcare.gov and purchase health insurance for you and your family. I'm not sure if you were aware of that fact, given the above comment.

Additionally, I direct your attention to section 1321 of the ACA, which mandates that the Secretary of the Department of Health and Human Services establish an exchange in states that refuse to establish their own. This would seem to contradict your conclusion that "no federal exchange would be set up" in states that refused to establish their own.

Finally, collecting statistics on purchasers from healthcare.gov is useful in and of itself. It could also provide ammunition to politicians who want to show voters in states without a state-established exchange how much they could be receiving in subsidies if the state established its own exchange.

Of course Congress could have created a law that requires a state-run exchange for subsidies. But it's so fucking obvious that they didn't. How is it that no one noticed it 4 years later!?!? Not a single lawmaker or reporter can recall this being a topic over the numerous months the bill was crafted. Not a single one of them complained years ago that the federal exchanges were being done wrong?

I find this argument peculiar. Here I am, saying we should figure out what the statute says by, you know, reading it. Then you come along insisting that we look at everything but the statute. We all know how well reporters cover legal matters, after all.

I'll come back to this question later, but for now, this post is long enough.

EDIT:


And that, my friends, is why the word "voxplain" exists.
 

Oblivion

Fetishing muscular manly men in skintight hosery
I'll get back to the other parts of your post later. But I don't understand what you find so hard to believe about Congress offering credits as an inducement for states to establish their own exchanges. Remember, this is the same statute in which Congress, in an attempt to expand Medicaid coverage, threatened to destroy Medicaid in any state that didn't expand it. And yet the credits-as-inducement view is so absurd that you don't think anyone could hold it unless the person is a hack or a troll?

It's one thing to argue based on technicalities and such, but can I just ask why you're ignoring the mountain of evidence against the idea of limited subsidies to state exchanges by the Obama admin, the Dems in congress, and everyone else who helped construct Obamacare, and instead are just focusing on literally a few examples that prove otherwise?
 

Metaphoreus

This is semantics, and nothing more
It's one thing to argue based on technicalities and such, but can I just ask why you're ignoring the mountain of evidence against the idea of limited subsidies to state exchanges by the Obama admin, the Dems in congress, and everyone else who helped construct Obamacare, and instead are just focusing on literally a few examples that prove otherwise?

The key to interpreting a statute is the text of the statute. The title of my previous post is how I view things like Baucus' amicus brief filed with the D.C. Circuit. You may find it helpful to build your argument by looking at what this or that person says the law is; I find it critical in determining what the law is to look at what Congress said the law is--which is to say, the text of the statute itself, which is what Congress voted on and the president signed into law. The other stuff--speculating as to why the law says what it does--is less important to me, though it certainly doesn't hurt that a proffered interpretation of a statute is independently plausible.
 
T

thepotatoman

Unconfirmed Member
EDIT:

And that, my friends, is why the word "voxplain" exists.

What is that supposed to even mean?

Is Vox already getting the Krugman treatment? Attacking the person making the argument instead of the argument itself because the argument is too sound.
 

benjipwns

Banned
Here's that CBS-NYT-YouGov massive online poll:
http://www.cbsnews.com/news/2014-mi...rrowly-favored-to-capture-senate-in-november/

They also did governors, RCP has the PDF's linked:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/governor/

That polling has to be at least GOP +5 points too strong in most races.

Looking at the MI one: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2014/CBS_NYT_YouGov_0714_MI.pdf
The independent lean is way too GOP. Even though Lynn Land should do better, I don't think 52-34 is going to be the gap. And 53-32 in the House/Governor among Independents? That has to be close to 2010.
 
T

thepotatoman

Unconfirmed Member
The key to interpreting a statute is the text of the statute. The title of my previous post is how I view things like Baucus' amicus brief filed with the D.C. Circuit. You may find it helpful to build your argument by looking at what this or that person says the law is; I find it critical in determining what the law is to look at what Congress said the law is--which is to say, the text of the statute itself, which is what Congress voted on and the president signed into law. The other stuff--speculating as to why the law says what it does--is less important to me, though it certainly doesn't hurt that a proffered interpretation of a statute is independently plausible.

So there is literally no amount of real world evidence that would cause you to change your mind about the meaning of the text.

The only thing that matters is how Metaphoreus reads the text, and absolutely nothing will change his mind, because once you get decide you can dismiss all the history, people, and context behind that text, the only thing you are left with is your own interpretation.

At that point you might as well get rid of the pretext of law and just call it an extension of politics.
 
Here's that CBS-NYT-YouGov massive online poll:
http://www.cbsnews.com/news/2014-mi...rrowly-favored-to-capture-senate-in-november/

They also did governors, RCP has the PDF's linked:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/governor/

That polling has to be at least GOP +5 points too strong in most races.

Looking at the MI one: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2014/CBS_NYT_YouGov_0714_MI.pdf
The independent lean is way too GOP. Even though Lynn Land should do better, I don't think 52-34 is going to be the gap. And 53-32 in the House/Governor among Independents? That has to be close to 2010.
In 2012 their final Senate polls were off by an average of 5 points in favor of the GOP candidate. "Unskewing" polls is stupid although if you did give each Democrat 5 points in this current batch of Senate polls, the GOP would go from gaining 8 seats to only gaining 2 (Democrats would win Kentucky while losing WV, SD, MT). Democrats would also be within a point or two of winning Georgia and West Virginia and thus breaking even.
 

Metaphoreus

This is semantics, and nothing more
So there is literally no amount of real world evidence that would cause you to change your mind about the meaning of the text.

The only thing that matters is how Metaphoreus reads the text, and absolutely nothing will change his mind, because once you get decide you can dismiss all the history, people, and context behind that text, the only thing you are left with is your own interpretation.

At that point you might as well get rid of the pretext of law and just call it an extension of politics.

What are you talking about? I say that what a statute says is the law, and you say that's politics? You're the one who's arguing that the law is determined by something so vague and indeterminate as "the news and events that lead to the passage of the bill and immediate aftermath." In your world, the law is unknowable ahead of time and should be determined only when absolutely necessary, and with reference not to the statutory text voted on by Congress and signed by the president, but in accordance with that nebulous standard.
 

Oblivion

Fetishing muscular manly men in skintight hosery
The key to interpreting a statute is the text of the statute. The title of my previous post is how I view things like Baucus' amicus brief filed with the D.C. Circuit. You may find it helpful to build your argument by looking at what this or that person says the law is; I find it critical in determining what the law is to look at what Congress said the law is--which is to say, the text of the statute itself, which is what Congress voted on and the president signed into law. The other stuff--speculating as to why the law says what it does--is less important to me, though it certainly doesn't hurt that a proffered interpretation of a statute is independently plausible.

I'm not arguing how the law should be interpreted. While I don't agree with your legal reasoning, you're at least on more solid ground on those terms. The post I was responding to was you saying that you believe the intent of the Obamcare architects was to (again) intentionally deprive states from receiving subsidies with an exchange. That argument requires one to reside in a bubble of significant thickness.
 

benjipwns

Banned
Actually, here's a question that just popped into my head. Do members of Congress and their staff or whoever was required to in the bill have to go through their state exchanges or can they choose the federal exchange?

EDIT: Heh, this is from 2009: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lC3lxb2WBYo
Baucus responded that the Finance Committee had jurisdiction because his bill offered tax credits to individuals on the condition that their states complied with the bill’s health-insurance provisions: “Taxes are in the jurisdiction of this committee”; “An exchange is essentially [where individuals can access] tax credits”: “There are conditions to participate in the exchange.” To place “conditions” on tax credits, of course, presumes a scenario in which they are not available.

It is worth mentioning that this is the only bit of context or legislative history that anyone has found that directly addresses the question of whether the PPACA authorizes tax credits in federal exchanges. And it highlights an additional legislative purpose that is important enough to count separately.

...

The conditional nature of the tax credits is what gave the Finance Committee a jurisdictional hook to legislate in this area. The need for that hook may have disappeared when the bill reached the Senate floor. But the language restricting tax credits to state-run exchanges did not.
 
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