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PoliGAF 2014 |OT| Kay Hagan and the Terrible, Horrible, No Good, Very Bad News

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In wondering what's causing this. I would imagine people who've signed up are happy.

The ACA has been a double edged sword for me. I want it to help people. It's helped people I know too. I hate that it's a corporate handout though. It's also putting me in an awkward position next year. My insurance went up this year while my deductibles went up too. It wasn't terrible though. Next year my company is introducing High deductible health care saving account hoping to "persuade" as many people as possible to get off of normal insurance plan. They're saying that the ACA puts some of the burden on the company to pay my bills instead of the insurer. Basically my expenses become a shared burden between the insurer and the company if something catastrophic happens. They're warning us a year ahead of time to expect large increases if we stay on our normal plan ... If they're even available.

I don't know how accurate the things my company is telling are. What I do know is that if the average person is going through what I am going through, they'll have a hard time seeing the societal benefits due to their personal frustrations and increases.
It's probably just an outlier. It's not done by NYT or Pew, but by "Henry J. Kaiser Family Foundation's health care tracking poll"
 
Didn't he give them until August 15th to come up with a decent map, and if they fail he'll delay the elections? It's not going to have a major impact on November...
They would still affect the Congress of 2015-2016, it'd just be a little later.

Democrats could net at least 2-3 seats from a good Florida map, every little bit helps.
 

Oblivion

Fetishing muscular manly men in skintight hosery
Yeah, gerrymandering will ensure the GOP's hold on the House until at least 2020, when the new census is due and the states can redraw their districts. That's why I see the 2020 election as being so important (besides from being a presidential election, of course).

It's really depressing to think that because of one fucking year of good luck, the GOP has fucked over and prevented pretty much every Democratic policy from taking place for a whole fucking DECADE. That is TEN FUCKING YEARS where we just have to sit out and waste, hoping that the Republicans don't fuck things up too badly.

Seriously, how is this shit even legal?

I've asked this question too. The answer I always get is that they didn't expect 36 brave, patriotic states to turn down their bribe, so they decided to scrap that plan and illegally distribute the subsidies anyway.

Even that doesn't make sense because if those states refuse to implement the exchanges, then the Dems can hammer all those Republican state governments until they do. In fact, it would be perfect timing right now since the midterms are coming up.

It's probably just an outlier. It's not done by NYT or Pew, but by "Henry J. Kaiser Family Foundation's health care tracking poll"

Why do you doubt this? Kaiser's polling has been pretty good for the most part. Plus, they are a pro-Obamcare group.

Though the weird thing is I'm surprised they don't have a breakdown of the polling like they usually do.
 

benjipwns

Banned
IThough the weird thing is I'm surprised they don't have a breakdown of the polling like they usually do.
http://kff.org/health-reform/poll-finding/kaiser-health-tracking-poll-july-2014/

It's probably just an outlier. It's not done by NYT or Pew, but by "Henry J. Kaiser Family Foundation's health care tracking poll"
Kaiser is a well known health industry research group:
http://www.kaiserhealthnews.org/
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kaiser_Family_Foundation

And it's not an outlier:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/obama_and_democrats_health_care_plan-1130.html

They don't break it out by people who don't think the law goes far enough, and people who think it should be repealed. The "unfavorable view" has always been kind of a strange metric to view the ACA on because it could definitely be weighted by liberals who want a public option, more money for subsidies, things like that.
Generally the "doesn't go far enough" has been 20-30% of the disapproval from what I can recall when it's been asked.

EDIT: Example, see this recent CNN poll: http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2014/images/07/22/rel7c.pdf
38% oppose too "liberal", 17% not "liberal" enough. With the latter being the highest point they've ever polled it at.
 

Wilsongt

Member
As if we didn't already know, Bachmann is an idiot:

“That’s more kids that you can see how––we can’t imagine doing this, but if you have a hospital and they are going to get millions of dollars in government grants if they can conduct medical research on somebody, and a ward of the state can’t say ‘no’––a little kid can’t say ‘no’ if they’re a ward of the state––so here you could have this institution getting millions of dollars from our government to do medical experimentation and a kid can’t even say ‘no.’ It’s sick.”

What sort of world does this woman live in?
 

Wilsongt

Member
House passes a border bill.

The Republican-led House of Representatives passed a border security bill tonight 223-189, a day after GOP leaders pulled the bill due to insufficient party support. The emergency funding bill was meant to tackle the crisis before the chamber goes on a long recess.

There were some crossover votes, with four Republicans voting no and one Democrat voting yes.

Divine protection protected IDF troops today.

Or something.

Givati Brigade commander Col. Ofer Winter, who made the claims in an interview with the ultra-Orthodox weekly Mishpacha, met with criticism recently for rallying his troops with religious messages.

Winter lauded the importance of yeshiva students studying Torah as beneficial for the war effort. “Especially in a time of war, when there is a strong urge to join the fighting forces, we need to emphasize that what the Jewish people need is yeshiva students who will sit and study Torah with greater strength and courage,” Winter said in the interview, which is to be published this weekend and was previewed by the website NRG on Thursday. “Learning Torah protects the Jewish people more than anything else.”

Ultra-Orthodox rabbis have called off summer vacation in their yeshivas in solidarity with the soldiers fighting in Gaza.

Winter claimed to have witnessed a miraculous occurrence, the likes of which he had never seen before during his military career.

He said that a predawn raid that was intended to make use of the dark as concealment was delayed, forcing the soldiers to move toward their objective as the sun was about to rise. The soldiers were in danger of being revealed in the light but, Winter recalled, a heavy fog descended to cover their movements until the objective was achieved.

“Suddenly a cloud protected us,” he said, make a reference to the clouds that the Bible says protected the Israelites as they wandered in the desert. “Clouds of glory.”

Only when the soldiers were in a secure position did the fog dissipate, he said.

“It really was a fulfillment of the verse ‘For the Lord your God is the one who goes with you to give you victory,’” he said, quoting a passage from Deuteronomy.

Read more: Senior infantry officer describes divine protection in Gaza | The Times of Israel http://www.timesofisrael.com/senior...ibes-divine-protection-in-gaza/#ixzz39C7z4c6v
Follow us: @timesofisrael on Twitter | timesofisrael on Facebook
 

Oblivion

Fetishing muscular manly men in skintight hosery

Grazie.

Despite the increase in the share with an unfavorable view of the ACA, a strong majority of the public continues to prefer that their representative in Congress work on improving the law (60 percent) rather than working to repeal and replace it with something else (35 percent), shares that have been consistent over the last several months. Even among Republicans and those with an unfavorable view of the law, about a third would prefer to see the law improved rather than repealed and replaced (32 percent and 36 percent, respectively).

majority-wants-congress-to-work-to-improve-aca-polling.png


Boom.
 

benjipwns

Banned
Maybe he's resigning.
http://www.mediaite.com/tv/dick-morris-wouldnt-be-surprised-if-obama-resigned/
Morris could be spotted weighing in on current events on Newsmax TV, a conservative Web TV channel.

Asked about Obama’s recent fundraising tour, Morris said the president has “cashed-it-in,” and that he’s “removed, distracted, aloof.”

“If I opened the newspaper tomorrow,” Morris added, “and I learn that Obama resigned, I wouldn’t be surprised.”
Do you like toes PD?
 

alstein

Member
To the folks saying its gerrymandering, 2020 is not going to year where it magically becomes fair.

The Dems are going to have to win a landslide in 2020 to switch things around. Even before 2020 could work- they just need 1 Congress with a House Majority- they get that, they can lock in everything.
 
To the folks saying its gerrymandering, 2020 is not going to year where it magically becomes fair.

you're right (in a certain way), that's why we're saying a decently large 2016 win will swing the House back like it swung back in 2006

you're also wrong, in that a lot of the state legislatures the GOP retook in 2010 are gonna be a lot more competitive in 2020 given that it's a presidential election year, which means that year could be where it magically becomes fair
 

Wilsongt

Member
Hasn't the Senate has already gone on recess?



Cuellar is the guy who was claiming the White House was sending him threats to shut up about criticizing Obama over the BORDER CRISIS.

Yeah, and it's a shitty bill.

"Instead of responding to the concerns and objections, Republicans have moved more to the right," she said at a press conference. "Not to the correct, but to the right."

Many of the members seemed most critical of the provisions to take away the right of due process for unaccompanied minors and to end President Barack Obama's Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals program, which allows undocumented young people who came to the U.S. years ago to stay. Rep. Ben Ray Luján (D-N.M.) called the push to end DACA "mean-spirited," and Minority Whip Steny Hoyer (D-Md.) deemed the revamped provisions in the new bill "some of the harshest, most draconian policies they could think of."

"It is unfortunate that Republicans are playing partisan games with a bill that has no chance of passing the Senate or being signed into law," Hoyer said. "In other words, it is simply a message they want to send, not a solution they want to effect."

The Democrats hinted that immigration would continue to be a key political issue dividing the two parties. During the press conference, they reiterated their support for comprehensive immigration reform and went after Republicans for alienating Hispanic voters. Rep. Michelle Lujan Grisham (D-N.M.) accused Republicans of "destroying diversity in this country" and making the unaccompanied minors "victims of politics."

Passing the GOP border bill could hurt Republicans' chances of making inroads with Latino voters in the midterm elections and in 2016 -- a point Democrats will likely seize on.

"We're looking at possibly one of the most anti-Hispanic Congresses in generations," Rep. Joe Garcia (D-Fla.) said.

Perhaps angriest of all was Rep. Luis Gutiérrez (D-Ill.), who represents two of Chicago's biggest Latino neighborhoods. He fumed as he decried what he called the Republicans' "hatefulness toward an immigrant community" and noted that Republicans, who made Hispanic outreach a priority after their electoral defeat in 2012, have forgotten those they once deemed a priority.

"It is as though they have amnesia and have forgotten and abandoned that road. They have taken the road of those who are filled with spitefulness and hatred toward our community," he said, with his voice rising. "We will soon cure them of that amnesia, come this election and every election moving forward."
 

Oblivion

Fetishing muscular manly men in skintight hosery
Well, seems the Pope isn't Christian enough for the Republican in congress:

Only 19 of the 221 co-sponsors are Republicans. The dearth of GOP members on the measure could be attributable to assertions that the pope is “too liberal,” according to a Republican backer of the legislation.

The source noted that Francis last year denounced “trickle-down economics.”
Some Republicans believe the pope is “sounding like [President] Obama. [The pope] talks about equality — he actually used the term ‘trickle-down economics,’ which is politically charged,” the GOP official said.

http://thehill.com/homenews/house/213588-will-speaker-move-bill-on-the-pope#ixzz38y5gOH5N




Those assholes stole my story! :mad:
 

benjipwns

Banned
To the folks saying its gerrymandering, 2020 is not going to year where it magically becomes fair.

The Dems are going to have to win a landslide in 2020 to switch things around. Even before 2020 could work- they just need 1 Congress with a House Majority- they get that, they can lock in everything.
Congress doesn't draw Congressional Districts.

2010's Congressional victory corresponds with the redistricting because the Republican wave also hit state legislatures. (And harder in many cases.)
 
To the folks saying its gerrymandering, 2020 is not going to year where it magically becomes fair.

The Dems are going to have to win a landslide in 2020 to switch things around. Even before 2020 could work- they just need 1 Congress with a House Majority- they get that, they can lock in everything.
Technically new maps wouldn't even be effective until 2022 anyway

So realistically, Democrats just need to have a good 2018. Winning gubernatorial contests in WI, OH, FL, PA, MI would help force fair maps against Republican legislatures, assuming they still hold power in those states (some of them could flip earlier based on demographic changes). Also VA in 2021 would help. GA and TX would also be good wins but are further off, TX moreso than GA.

Unfortunately winning NC governor wouldn't mean shit since the legislature gave itself the power over redistricting. Ironically it was the Democrats who did this because they thought Bev Perdue would lose in 2008. Wah wah waaaah.
 
T

thepotatoman

Unconfirmed Member
I wonder how long it takes for Gerrymandering to erode just from people moving around and shifts in political focus. Like Hillary, for instance, is losing every single matchup poll against Rand Paul in Colorado, while she doing better than Obama might in other states. Wouldn't that be the case on the district level as well?

It's obviously not going to be enough to downright end it before 2020, but it might not be as big of a wall to climb by then.

They would still affect the Congress of 2015-2016, it'd just be a little later.

Democrats could net at least 2-3 seats from a good Florida map, every little bit helps.

That could be huge. Three seats would take the 2012 generic ballot tipping point down from +7% to +6%.

And don't forget, the closer it gets to even, the more troubles Boehner is going to have passing anything without resorting to democrat help.
 

Diablos

Member
i'm digging the implicit assumption that the GOP will continue to hold onto the House ad infinitum after an election that's probably going to look more like 2008 than 2000
I think 2016 will be way closer than 2008 and 2012 were. I don't think it will be crazy like 2000-2004 but I find it hard to believe Hillary will be able to win everything Obama did.
I find it highly unlikely that she'd be able to get the House to flip btw.
 

Wilsongt

Member
I know it's Kansas, and it's the GOP, and it's a non Tea Party candidate against a Tea Party candidate, but I kinda feel bad for the guy that he is being attacked for this.

Huelskamp's Republican Challenger Blasted For Having Appeared In 'Homosexual Movie

Congressional candidate Alan LaPolice’s appearance in the movie “The Art of Being Straight,” has become an issue in his primary race against U.S. Rep. Tim Huelskamp, R-Fowler/Hutchinson.

“I am very concerned that a candidate for national office would be so out of touch with the deeply held beliefs of a great many Kansans,” said Dennis Blick, chairman of the board for Kansas Family Policy Council, Wichita.

“KFPC believes Kansans deserve candidates of the highest integrity committed to traditional Judeo-Christian values, which have been the bedrock of rural Kansas communities for generations,” Blick said in a press release Tuesday from the KFPC.


Phillip Cosby, director of the American Family Association of Kansas and Missouri, said in the release that it’s “highly inappropriate” to be “featured in a homosexual movie.”


LaPolice was an actor but principally an educator in California before moving back to Clyde last year. He told The News recently he said yes to a friend and appeared in the friend’s movie that was shot around 2006. LaPolice played a character he described as a homophobic bigot.

I don't know why I feel a bit sympathetic for the guy for this reason. But, then is politics (The GOP especially) and them attacking any tiny thing about you (including being a defense attorney) is fair game for then.
 

benjipwns

Banned
I like how they're trying to imply it's a porn instead of a movie with a homosexual-related theme.

It's got a 38% on RottenTomatoes.

Awesome user review:
This starts off well enough but quickly devolves into meaningless scattered scenes until it abruptly ends in a sort of non ending.
 
That could be huge. Three seats would take the 2012 generic ballot tipping point down from +7% to +6%.

And don't forget, the closer it gets to even, the more troubles Boehner is going to have passing anything without resorting to democrat help.
I'd be ok with democrats gaining like 10 seats or so. Boehner has a hard enough time passing bills without unilaterally caving to the right-wing as it is, the antics would get even better if he only had a few votes to spare. Of course he'd probably lose his Speaker position at that point and his replacement would be even worse.

I can imagine him begging Pelosi to get some Democrats to vote for him for Speaker lol
 

Wilsongt

Member
Cruz isn't up for a pummeling until 2016, right? If he manages to win again, any faith I didn't have in Texas will move further into the negative. He's a troll, plain and simple.
 

benjipwns

Banned
Cruz isn't up for a pummeling until 2016, right? If he manages to win again, any faith I didn't have in Texas will move further into the negative. He's a troll, plain and simple.
Back in April:
PPP's newest Texas poll makes it pretty clear that when it comes to politicians Ted Cruz is the top dog in the state. Cruz has a better net approval rating than both Rick Perry and John Cornyn at +12, with 47% of voters approving of him to 35% who disapprove.

Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Ted
Cruz’s job performance?
Approve ................. .47%
Disapprove............. .35%
Not sure ................. .18%

Q4 If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Ted
Cruz, who would you vote for?
Hillary Clinton.................................................. 43%
Ted Cruz ......................................................... 50%
Not sure .......................................................... 6%

Q7 If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Rick
Perry, who would you vote for?
Hillary Clinton.................................................. 44%
Rick Perry ....................................................... 49%
Not sure .......................................................... 7%

Q8 Do you think Rick Perry should run for
President in 2016, or not?
Think he should .............................................. 23%
Think he should not ........................................ 66%
Not sure .......................................................... 11%

Q9 Do you think Ted Cruz should run for President
in 2016, or not?
Think he should .............................................. 32%
Think he should not ........................................ 54%
Not sure .......................................................... 14%

Q14 Is your favorite Major League Baseball team
the Atlanta Braves, Boston Red Sox, Chicago
Cubs, Houston Astros, New York Yankees, St.
Louis Cardinals, Texas Rangers, or some other
team?
Braves ............................................................ 5%
Red Sox.......................................................... 3%
Cubs ............................................................... 3%
Astros ............................................................. 22%
Yankees .......................................................... 3%
Cardinals......................................................... 3%
Rangers .......................................................... 35%
Some other team / Don't have a favorite......... 27%

Q17 Is your favorite NBA team the Boston Celtics,
Chicago Bulls, Dallas Mavericks, Houston
Rockets, Miami Heat, Los Angeles Lakers,
New York Knicks, Oklahoma City Thunder, San
Antonio Spurs, or some other team?
Celtics............................................................. 3%
Bulls................................................................ 4%
Mavericks........................................................ 28%
Rockets........................................................... 16%
Heat ................................................................ 3%
Lakers............................................................. 1%
Knicks ............................................................. 0%
Thunder .......................................................... 5%
Spurs .............................................................. 20%
Some other team / Don't have a favorite......... 20%

Q18 Given the choices of 2014 NBA All Stars Tim
Duncan, James Harden, Dwight Howard, Dirk
Nowitzki, and Tony Parker, who is your favorite
player in the state of Texas?
Tim Duncan .................................................... 20%
James Harden ................................................ 11%
Dwight Howard ............................................... 9%
Dirk Nowitzki ................................................... 22%
Tony Parker .................................................... 9%
Not sure .......................................................... 29%

Republicans only:
Q2 Do you think Rick Perry should run for
President in 2016, or not?
Think he should .............................................. 34%
Think he should not ........................................ 52%
Not sure .......................................................... 15%

Q3 Do you think Ted Cruz should run for President
in 2016, or not?
Think he should .............................................. 46%
Think he should not ........................................ 38%
Not sure .......................................................... 16%
 

benjipwns

Banned
2016 is going to be a GOP landslide anyway with huge coattails:
http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2014/aug/1/ben-carson-takes-major-step-toward-presidential-ca/
Ben Carson, the former neurosurgeon turned conservative sensation, is taking a major step toward a 2016 presidential bid by forming a political action committee and selecting the man who would run his campaign, The Washington Times has learned.

Emerging from two-days of meetings with supporters in Palm Beach, Fla., Dr. Carson told the Times on Friday morning he has selected Houston businessman Terry Giles to be his 2016 campaign chairman should he run and approved the formation of a PAC called One Nation.

“Now is the time to start all of the appropriate exploration and investigation, and put down the structure that is necessary,” Dr. Carson said in a phone interview.

Asked about the likelihood he will run for president in 2016, Dr. Carson said: “I would say we are definitely a step or two closer than we were a year ago.”
 
Carson will do a good job of pulling the less extreme candidates to the far right.

BTW I like how Obama's actions especially put Jeb Bush in a tough spot. First DACA, now if he goes through with this legalization exec order then Bush will have to answer questions on it nonstop. He'll be forced to either side with the far right and alienate Hispanics or side with Hispanics and alienate the GOP base.
 

benjipwns

Banned
I'm not sure Carson is all that far from the mainstream of the party. He just shows no indications of tip-toeing around gay marriage and evolution. But Santorum didn't either.

I still have doubts that Jeb Bush is really going to run. He's like the Brent Barry of the two Bush brothers.
 

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
I'm not sure Carson is all that far from the mainstream of the party. He just shows no indications of tip-toeing around gay marriage and evolution. But Santorum didn't either.

I still have doubts that Jeb Bush is really going to run. He's like the Brent Barry of the two Bush brothers.

That's the problem, the mainstream of the GOP is too extreme to win a general election. If they want to win the general they'll need someone moderate to stand a chance and if there is a bunch of really popular people on the extreme right, which is more like the mainstream these days, then that's where everyone will be dragged.
 
Who wins the flipadistrict contest GAF? I think it will probably be Kline or Coffmann although Farenthold had the closest election last go around.

Ellmers won by 17 percent in 2012.
Kline won by 8
Coffmann won by 2
Farenthold won by less than 1 percent.

Ellmers will probably beat Aiken although he could probably use the million dollars the most(the irony). The other 3 could still lose without the help.
 

benjipwns

Banned
Farenthold looks weird. Like he's 32 maybe less, not 52.

Those final four aren't exactly "entrenched" Congressman. Kline is a five termer, but Coffman is three and Ellmers and Farenthold are only two.

In 1972, when Farenthold was ten years old, his father disappeared and was later found dead, his body having washed ashore after being weighed down with a cement block and deposited in Corpus Christi Bay.[10] The gangland-style murder was the work of enemies of the elder Farenthold, who feared he would testify against a group of con artists who had tried to defraud him out of $100,000
And yet Barack Obama stood by and did nothing in this early Benghazi style attack.

That's the problem, the mainstream of the GOP is too extreme to win a general election. If they want to win the general they'll need someone moderate to stand a chance and if there is a bunch of really popular people on the extreme right, which is more like the mainstream these days, then that's where everyone will be dragged.
I think that turns more on the "narrative of the general election" and immigration is a huge one in the GOP right now and that's the issue they probably do best across the board with other than maybe tax cuts. It's the one issue where Republicans can keep pulling to their side and not losing much while the Democrats basically can't budge.
 
I'm not sure Carson is all that far from the mainstream of the party. He just shows no indications of tip-toeing around gay marriage and evolution. But Santorum didn't either.

I still have doubts that Jeb Bush is really going to run. He's like the Brent Barry of the two Bush brothers.

I like Brent Barry.

Only white guy to win the Slam Dunk Contest.
 

Aylinato

Member
Farenthold looks weird. Like he's 32 maybe less, not 52.

Those final four aren't exactly "entrenched" Congressman. Kline is a five termer, but Coffman is three and Ellmers and Farenthold are only two.


And yet Barack Obama stood by and did nothing in this early Benghazi style attack.


I think that turns more on the "narrative of the general election" and immigration is a huge one in the GOP right now and that's the issue they probably do best across the board with other than maybe tax cuts. It's the one issue where Republicans can keep pulling to their side and not losing much while the Democrats basically can't budge.


BenghaI Benghazi Benghazi. All your points are now moot.
 

Diablos

Member
I wonder if general support for a comprehensive immigration bill has collapsed amongst the population, since the "border crisis" hit?
I don't know, but given what's in the GOP's insane bill they're sure going to continue alienating Hispanic voters even more than they previously did...

Never fails.
 

Oblivion

Fetishing muscular manly men in skintight hosery
As I always ask every month for the past few months since jobs numbers have been released, how is such high growth possible after Obama's job killing tax hikes and regulations?

I'd like to hear Metamorpheus opinionate on that, instead of trying to argue that Obama really wanted to deprive millions of people from government dependence or that no one in the Republican party has called for impeachment.
 

789shadow

Banned
As I always ask every month for the past few months since jobs numbers have been released, how is such high growth possible after Obama's job killing tax hikes and regulations?
But just imagine how many more jobs would have been created under President Romney!
 
T

thepotatoman

Unconfirmed Member
I wonder if general support for a comprehensive immigration bill has collapsed amongst the population, since the "border crisis" hit?

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs...igration-is-now-president-obamas-worst-issue/

0ZTasM5.png


Like I was saying, actually doing something about immigration is not a good issue for democrats at this point in time, and won't be until latin americans can start making a much bigger difference in elections. Maybe opinions have changed since the last couple of days of silliness in congress which that poll doesn't pick up, but I doubt it.

Still, I'm fine if they throw away the 2014 election to do the right thing, since it's not exactly the most important election ever anyway. Maybe it'll even be mostly be contained to Obama instead of the democratic party, but they aren't going to make gains off this.
 
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