The Great Exception offers you no comfort: So how did the Democrats actually pick up five House seats in 1998, and not lose a single Senate seat, at a time when the incumbent Democratic President had been pummeled all year by accusations of sexual misconduct and possible perjury? On August 17, just a few weeks before the fall campaign iced off, he had to go on national TV to offer a mea kinda sorta culpa.
Yes, part of the explanation was Republican overreach, which, combined with Independent Counsel Ken Starr's imitation of Inspector Javert, brought Clintons supporters to the polls. The far more powerful explanation was the now-famous phrase pinned on James Carvilles campaign office wall: its the economy, stupid.
Describing the economy in 1998 makes it hard to believe were looking at the same country: unemployment at 4.5 percent. Inflation at 1.5 percent. Real GDP growth over 4 percent. The projected budget surplus was so high that a serious economic debate was underway that asked: should we wipe out the national debt, or do we need a bit of debt to keep credit flowing?
As for the national mood? In the fall of 1998, the NBC-Wall Street Journal poll reported that, by a 55-31 margin, the public believed things were pretty much headed in the right direction. All of which meant that while the public may not have trusted Clinton with their young daughters, they did trust him to mind the store.
Today? That same poll reports that, by a 2 1/2-1 spread, the country thinks things are off on the wrong track. And the economic numbers show a slow shuffle toward an anemic recovery; certainly not the kind of numbers that would persuade voters to rally behind the Presidents party.
Its not beyond possibility that Republicans could trigger such a rally, say, by seriously pushing impeachment (which may explain why Democrats react to the idea the way Brer Rabbit regarded the briar patch). But if were talking about probabilities, that six year curse looks very much like it will live to haunt another second-term President.