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PoliGAF 2014 |OT| Kay Hagan and the Terrible, Horrible, No Good, Very Bad News

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Retro

Member
It's a GOP group, there's no room for someone from Mister T's continental origination.

Shit, there isn't even one of them that's slightly more tanned than the others. Maybe we should throw in Boehner just so there's a little color on the team, even if that color is only two shades of orange shy of full-on Oompa Loompa.
 

alstein

Member
The Senate is spineless and the House GOP gives zero fucks because their majority is gerrymandered in lily white districts whose residents would not vote Democratic if their lives depended on it (i.e. access to healthcare).

If the House GOP throws a hissy fit again, without Democrats in control of the Senate, the Senate GOP will likely end up following suit. Republicans do not care about people in need. They've demonstrated this incessantly. They don't care about the consequences because when it comes to controlling Congress they don't have to.

If the GOP wins the Senate and the Government shuts down again I fully expect Obamacare to be front and center, at which time it would be in grave danger, as well as the people benefiting from it (and the health insurance industry as a whole).

I think in such a scenario Obama would settle in for a long shutdown. Let the Republicans suffer more, his poll numbers don't matter anymore- or he'll just do something and dare the Republicans to impeach, starting a constitutional crisis.
 
I think in such a scenario Obama would settle in for a long shutdown. Let the Republicans suffer more, his poll numbers don't matter anymore- or he'll just do something and dare the Republicans to impeach, starting a constitutional crisis.
Obama's not going to allow the Republicans to take away his legacy. He'd let this happen over repealing Obamacare.

11 dimensional chess etc
 
If/when they control both houses we're not going to see a shut down. What we'll see are riders which get the policy changes they want with still having the boggieman they can use to fundraise and beat up in the primaries.

mitch has already admitted this is what they're going to do.
 

benjipwns

Banned
Here's my strategy for fighting ISIS:

Parachute John McCain and Lindsey Graham inside the enemy lines. Cpt. Rand Paul is the pilot of the infiltration helicopter. Rick Perry is the mission commander.

Oh come on . . . Rand Paul would not be involved at all. But the rest of them are all hawks with military experience . . . them them lead the ground game. Get Daryll Issa, Steve King, Rubio, and other boots on the ground as well.
Actually, part of this isn't a bad idea.

Remember all those planes Congress ordered that the military didn't want?

I can't think of anybody more qualified than Johm McCain to crash them all in enemy territory. He can teach Graham and the others.
 
I want to become president just so I can wear a baby blue suit to fuck with everyone.

then while people are talking and arguing about it I'll annex Canada.

When obama legalizes all the immigrants he should be wearing a bright pink suit, conservatives will be busy with that for a few days before they realize what happened
 

benjipwns

Banned
I want to become president just so I can wear a baby blue suit to fuck with everyone.

then while people are talking and arguing about it I'll annex Canada.
4E5wpOol.jpg
 

Diablos

Member
I think in such a scenario Obama would settle in for a long shutdown. Let the Republicans suffer more, his poll numbers don't matter anymore- or he'll just do something and dare the Republicans to impeach, starting a constitutional crisis.
This would be incredibly stupid. This would fuck over a lot of Democrats especially if they continue to stand by the President as he refuses to reopen the government.
Obama's poll numbers won't matter, but Dems up in 2016 and even Hillary will no doubt be affected by this strategy.

Which is all the more reason why we gotta hope like hell Democrats do NOT lose the Senate.
 
This would be incredibly stupid. This would fuck over a lot of Democrats especially if they continue to stand by the President as he refuses to reopen the government.
i can assure you based on the last 3 shutdowns this is not how the average voter would assess the situation
 
SUSA poll of Kentucky has McConnell leading 46-42, which is a bummer and pretty similar to their last poll where he led 47-45. I hope Grimey (as she likes to be called) can turn it around in the next couple of months but it seems she's hit an impasse and I'm giving the advantage to McConnell for now, in my all-important race ratings.
 
SUSA poll of Kentucky has McConnell leading 46-42, which is a bummer and pretty similar to their last poll where he led 47-45. I hope Grimey (as she likes to be called) can turn it around in the next couple of months but it seems she's hit an impasse and I'm giving the advantage to McConnell for now, in my all-important race ratings.

In short, Kentucky remains Kentucky and the people who benefit from Obamacare won't show up. Obama's executive order on immigration will ensure she loses by 4-5 points.
 
Not in 2014. They still won't be able to pass anything over Obama's veto, and they know there's a nonzero chance Dems will take both houses in 2016, at which point the filibuster will be all that protects them. Why discard that just to score a few ineffective political points?
Like I said they can get what hey want through spending riders.

I Think the biggest unanswered question is if they will open the amendment process like the bitch at Reid about
 
Obama's executive order on immigration will ensure she loses by 4-5 points.
Well reports say he's putting it off until after the elections (based on feedback from senators) so I think your analysis is spotty there, bud.

I can't wait for Hagan, Pryor, Braley etc. to win and Dems to keep the Senate but you'll point to this race as proof that you were right all along. Or if Grimes wins, it'll be something else.
 

Diablos

Member
It is known as "Diablosing".
And don't you forget it.

Well reports say he's putting it off until after the elections (based on feedback from senators) so I think your analysis is spotty there, bud.

I can't wait for Hagan, Pryor, Braley etc. to win and Dems to keep the Senate but you'll point to this race as proof that you were right all along. Or if Grimes wins, it'll be something else.
I really feel bad for all those poor kids who are suffering because of the political angle...
 
I really feel bad for all those poor kids who are suffering because of the political angle...
Yeah it sucks but your nightmare scenario where the GOP wins the Senate and defunds PPACA through policy riders would hurt many many people. If Obama feels this would help/hurt some of the Democrats running for re-election then there's gonna be some give and take.
 

Diablos

Member
Whoa, bud.

I realize that. I'm just saying these kids are now sucked into our dysfunctional political vortex and it is embarrassing and sad.
 
Whoa, bud.

I realize that. I'm just saying these kids are now sucked into our dysfunctional political vortex and it is embarrassing and sad.
Yeah, I totally see where you're coming from. And frankly I'd be ok with the EO coming sooner because of that. Obama needs to get out in front of it when he does sign it so the GOP won't twist it into some communist plot. They will anyway, but you know.
 

alstein

Member
Yes but with control of both chambers, if they shut down the government again, it could very well boil down to reopening it contingent on a full repeal of the ACA or nothing. Then Obama will have to choose between taking executive action to open the government which could get him in some real hot water, or finally letting the GOP get what they always wanted, otherwise the global economy collapses under his watch...

Both those options are wins for the Dems. The first one will lead to an impeachment, which is a win for the Dems as Obama can say I did what I had to do to protect the country.

The second leads to massive anger at Congress.

The only way the Dems lose is if Obama is considered unreasonable in demands, which he's smart enough to avoid (and it doesn't take that much brains vs Boehner/Ryan/McConnell)

If anything, the Republicans winning the Senate might actually help the chances of taking the House in 2016- the crazy will come out for Obama to veto and mock.
 
SUSA poll of Kentucky has McConnell leading 46-42, which is a bummer and pretty similar to their last poll where he led 47-45. I hope Grimey (as she likes to be called) can turn it around in the next couple of months but it seems she's hit an impasse and I'm giving the advantage to McConnell for now, in my all-important race ratings.
This is disappointing turn of events.

Oh well. It seems Kentucky hates Obama more than McConnell. A newbie upsetting a 30 year old veteran was a long shot anyway.
 
This is disappointing turn of events.

Oh well. It seems Kentucky hates Obama more than McConnell. A newbie upsetting a 30 year old veteran was a long shot anyway.
I think she still has a chance. But McConnell is the favorite for now.

I hate to use this phrase but she's running the perfect campaign. It's just... Kentucky.
 

OuterLimits

Member
I tend to lean conservative, but I am curious how progressives here view Elizabeth Warren? Recently she defended her vote to send 225 million to Israel and when confronted at a town hall, she said Israel is an important ally and called out Hamas for using civilians to protect military assets. Does this view help or hurt? Or perhaps it will make little difference?

Overall she seems fairly popular with those on the left. Would she stand a chance against Hillary in the primary? I wouldn't think so, but Clinton seemed like a sure thing the last time as well.

I'm curious how many will run in both primaries. Of course I imagine the Republican primary will likely have more candidates. Hell, there are even rumblings of Romney running again.(lol)

Hope everyone has an enjoyable holiday weekend. :)
 

lednerg

Member
I tend to lean conservative, but I am curious how progressives here view Elizabeth Warren? Recently she defended her vote to send 225 million to Israel and when confronted at a town hall, she said Israel is an important ally and called out Hamas for using civilians to protect military assets. Does this view help or hurt? Or perhaps it will make little difference?

Overall she seems fairly popular with those on the left. Would she stand a chance against Hillary in the primary? I wouldn't think so, but Clinton seemed like a sure thing the last time as well.

I'm curious how many will run in both primaries. Of course I imagine the Republican primary will likely have more candidates. Hell, there are even rumblings of Romney running again.(lol)

Hope everyone has an enjoyable holiday weekend. :)

It's one of those things that doesn't affect her standing against a Republican, since I'm supposing they'd agree. It's also not something she has (or would have) ultimate control over anyway.
 

Diablos

Member
Both those options are wins for the Dems. The first one will lead to an impeachment, which is a win for the Dems as Obama can say I did what I had to do to protect the country.

The second leads to massive anger at Congress.

The only way the Dems lose is if Obama is considered unreasonable in demands, which he's smart enough to avoid (and it doesn't take that much brains vs Boehner/Ryan/McConnell)

If anything, the Republicans winning the Senate might actually help the chances of taking the House in 2016- the crazy will come out for Obama to veto and mock.
Neither one is a win for Dems. Not opening the government in time means economic chaos which is bad for everyone. Everyone hates Congress anyway, it doesn't matter because of gerrymandering, so I don't think that matters. It hurt the GOP last time, too, taking more of the blame even -- but it didn't change the overall dynamic of things once the government reopened.

Also, don't think Obama won't cut stupid deals when his back would really be up against the wall, not even having Reid in the Senate to help him.

No way in hell in any circumstance do the Dems retake the House. Best case scenario is taking back the Seante with Hillary on the ticket and making considerable gains in the House, leading to possibly finally retaking it in 2018 or 2020.
 

Teggy

Member
I tend to lean conservative, but I am curious how progressives here view Elizabeth Warren? Recently she defended her vote to send 225 million to Israel and when confronted at a town hall, she said Israel is an important ally and called out Hamas for using civilians to protect military assets. Does this view help or hurt? Or perhaps it will make little difference?

Overall she seems fairly popular with those on the left. Would she stand a chance against Hillary in the primary? I wouldn't think so, but Clinton seemed like a sure thing the last time as well.

I think it's really unlikely that Warren runs. She doesn't seem interested at all in the presidency.
 
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thepotatoman

Unconfirmed Member
I tend to lean conservative, but I am curious how progressives here view Elizabeth Warren? Recently she defended her vote to send 225 million to Israel and when confronted at a town hall, she said Israel is an important ally and called out Hamas for using civilians to protect military assets. Does this view help or hurt? Or perhaps it will make little difference?

Overall she seems fairly popular with those on the left. Would she stand a chance against Hillary in the primary? I wouldn't think so, but Clinton seemed like a sure thing the last time as well.

I'm curious how many will run in both primaries. Of course I imagine the Republican primary will likely have more candidates. Hell, there are even rumblings of Romney running again.(lol)

Hope everyone has an enjoyable holiday weekend. :)
Basically there's just far to many voters that would swing against you if you're not 100% pro-Israel, and not enough people that will swing towards you for criticizing Israel. It's unfortunate, but it's basically a political necessity.
 
This is disappointing turn of events.

Oh well. It seems Kentucky hates Obama more than McConnell. A newbie upsetting a 30 year old veteran was a long shot anyway.

I think she still has a chance. McConnell is an old out-of-touch corrupt guy and she's pretty charismatic. McConnell just had a campaign guy resign because he is about to be prosecuted. McConnell has also said a lot of stupid shit that can be made into commercials like ~"It is not my job to bring jobs to Kentucky" and the government shut-down talk.


But . . . it is Kentucky. It will be close. I think she has a better shot than Nunn who seems to be a bit of a dead fish.
 
I tend to lean conservative, but I am curious how progressives here view Elizabeth Warren? Recently she defended her vote to send 225 million to Israel and when confronted at a town hall, she said Israel is an important ally and called out Hamas for using civilians to protect military assets. Does this view help or hurt? Or perhaps it will make little difference?

Overall she seems fairly popular with those on the left. Would she stand a chance against Hillary in the primary? I wouldn't think so, but Clinton seemed like a sure thing the last time as well.

I'm curious how many will run in both primaries. Of course I imagine the Republican primary will likely have more candidates. Hell, there are even rumblings of Romney running again.(lol)

Hope everyone has an enjoyable holiday weekend. :)

Consider me another person puzzled by the cult of Elizabeth Warren.
 
But . . . it is Kentucky. It will be close. I think she has a better shot than Nunn who seems to be a bit of a dead fish.
Nunn is a pretty good candidate. I'd say Grimes is a little better but she also has the benefit of running against a crook like McConnell while Perdue isn't a known quantity.

If either of them lose it certainly won't be because of some failing on their part.
 

Wilsongt

Member
Ted Cruz once again doing what he thinks is best for America.

After a busy few months trying to impeach Attorney General Eric Holder, increase carbon pollution, and wipe out limits on campaign contributions, Tea Party favorite Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) is now working to sell off America’s national forests, parks, and other public lands.

On Tuesday, Cruz filed an amendment to the Bipartisan Sportsmen’s Act of 2014 (S. 2363) to force the federal government to sell off a significant portion of the country’s most prized lands in the West. The amendment would prohibit the federal government from owning more than 50 percent of any land within one state, and requires the government to transfer the excess land to the states or sell it to the highest bidder.


Federal lands make up one-fifth of the nation’s landmass and over 50 percent of the land Nevada, Utah, Idaho, Oregon and Alaska. Under Cruz’s proposal, these states, which are home to some of the country’s most beloved national parks, forests, wildlife areas and iconic natural resources, would be forced to either pass the costs of managing these lands along to state taxpayers or, more likely, give them away or sell them off for mining, drilling, and logging.

Cruz’s amendment is the latest in a radical effort by right-wing lawmakers to give control of America’s public lands to states or private industry. The movement garnered national attention earlier this year with the help of Cliven Bundy, the Nevada rancher who spurred a standoff with federal officials after refusing to pay more than $1 million in grazing fees owed to taxpayers. Bundy notoriously refuses to acknowledge federal authority, telling CNN in April that “I’ll be damned if this is the property of the United States. They have no business here.”

The amendment aligns Cruz with the other 15 incumbent members of Congress who agree with Bundy that America’s public lands should be seized by the states or sold off for drilling, mining, or logging. Highlighted in a new series from the Center for American Progress Action Fund, these “Bundy’s Buddies” support the extremely costly and unconstitutional proposals to seize and sell off America’s public lands, which are also far from mainstream views of Americans in the West.

Although Cruz attached the amendment to a bill intended to benefit sportsmen by expanding hunting, fishing and shooting opportunities on public lands, sportsmen do not support efforts to seize or sell off federal lands. Backcountry Hunters and Anglers (BHA), who have voiced support for the sportsmen’s bill on its own, have condemned land seizure efforts as “a radical cry to wrest our national forests and prairies away from public ownership.”

http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2014/07/10/3458798/ted-cruz-auction-off-public-lands/

Truly Ted Cruz will be history's greatest troll.
 
Ted Cruz once again doing what he thinks is best for America.



http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2014/07/10/3458798/ted-cruz-auction-off-public-lands/

Truly Ted Cruz will be history's greatest troll.

After a busy few months trying to impeach Attorney General Eric Holder, increase carbon pollution, and wipe out limits on campaign contributions, Tea Party favorite Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) is now working to sell off America’s national forests, parks, and other public lands.
He really is cartoon evil. And the bizarre thing is that he is viewed as this super pious good guy by his fans. Go Figure.
 

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
He really is cartoon evil. And the bizarre thing is that he is viewed as this super pious good guy by his fans. Go Figure.

I'm honestly shocked he hasn't grown a mustache to twirl when he gives speeches.

Consider me another person puzzled by the cult of Elizabeth Warren.

She's one of the few Democrats willing to go after Wall Street, what's not to get? People like her for her economic policy, not her foreign policy.
 
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thepotatoman

Unconfirmed Member
Consider me another person puzzled by the cult of Elizabeth Warren.
It's not that complicated. She's one of the very few people in congress to aggressively call out the government's soft response to Wall Street corruption, and she is talented in speaking about these problems to the public.

Outside of that, she's just another democrat and someone to levitate towards if you don't like Hillary. Still, for me, after the great recession, Wall Street is a hugely important issue that Warren would be greatly better at than Hillary. Sure, she wouldn't do a whole lot, but I believe her appointment picks alone could help out greatly.

She was, after all, personally passed over by Obama in an appointment pick in order to appease Republicans, and has heavily criticized Holder's "too big to jail" philosophy.
 
Well his cover is blown guys.
EX-CIA employee admits President Obama is a radical Islamic enemy of America

August 28, 2014
It’s an explosive charge, one that practically accuses the president of treason.

Today, a former CIA agent bluntly told the newspaper, World Net Daily, that America has switched sides in the war on terror under President Obama. Clare Lopez was willing to say what a few members of Congress have said in private, but declined to say on-the-record.

Clare M. Lopez is the Vice President for Research and Analysis at the Center for Security Policy and a Senior Fellow at The Clarion Project, the London Center for Policy Research, and the Canadian Meighen Institute. Since 2013, she has served as a member of the Citizens Commission on Benghazi. Also Vice President of the Intelligence Summit, she formerly was a career operations officer with the Central Intelligence Agency, a professor at the Centre for Counterintelligence and Security Studies, Executive Director of the Iran Policy Committee from 2005-2006, and has served as a consultant, intelligence analyst, and researcher for a variety of defense firms. She was named a Lincoln Fellow at the Claremont Institute in 2011.
No link for such trash.

Freepers running with it:
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/3198823/posts

As are a zillion other little no-name right-wing sites.

Damn . . . all you have to do is say something they WANT to hear and that makes it a fact.
 
Well his cover is blown guys.

No link for such trash.

Freepers running with it:
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/3198823/posts

As are a zillion other little no-name right-wing sites.

Damn . . . all you have to do is say something they WANT to hear and that makes it a fact.

Conservative journalism in a nutshell. They use one source or blatantly false/fake shit so much I'd be interested to see how many actually graduated with journalism degrees. A recent example would be the Cochran/McDaniels race. On election night Brietbart and other right wing sites were basically releasing McDaniels press releases, "leaks" about him being up x amount, leaks about Cochran being too far behind to win, etc. That type of shoddy reporting lends itself to the creation of conspiracy theories later.
 
Arizona's gov race could be a tossup. Rasmussen has it tied 40-40. I don't really put too much faith in them but PPP showed the same thing recently (35-35 tie)
 
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thepotatoman

Unconfirmed Member
Throught the grapevine, I heard the Durbin campaign had a really bad internal result in IL. They didn't release it publicly.

Maybe you're thinking about the We Ask America poll released today showing a 7 point gap? That's lower than expected but nothing to panic about.
 
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thepotatoman

Unconfirmed Member
Looks like Democrats are not just gearing up for 2016, but also for 2020. I guess they realize that any hope having a solid grip on the House relies on redistricting in their favor (or reforming the redistricting process to prevent gerrymandering, if they're smart):

Forget 2016: Democrats already have a plan for 2020

Not a bad idea. I've always felt the parties would benefit more from financing more state legislative races. I'm not particularly thrilled with the thought of PACs taking over even more of the political process, but it does make strategic sense.
 
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