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PoliGAF 2014 |OT| Kay Hagan and the Terrible, Horrible, No Good, Very Bad News

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benjipwns

Banned
Some provinces in Canada limits political donations and publicly funds registered parties proportionally to the votes.
Right, this happens in the United States as well, including sometimes at the State level, and it's the same in most of the OECD countries. One key difference is that the United States allows funding and donations (which are still highly restricted) of individuals, not just parties. (In part because our electoral system places much more emphasis on the individuals than the parties.)

But in none that I'm aware of does it ban private and party money and provide only an equal public allowance to all candidates.

One reason Perot ran again in 1996 was because the only way the Reform Party could get the federal subsidy his 1992 bid generated was if he was the candidate. Then the Reform Party got a subsidy in 2000 based on the 1996 performance which is why Pat Buchanan, Donald Trump and others went after its nomination. (John Anderson similarly considered a 1984 bid because his 1980 independent run met the threshold for a future subsidy.)
 
@ppppolls 5m

One thing that may help Snyder- Medicaid expansion proving to be very popular in MI. 50/26 support after 5 months:
PPP's newest Michigan poll finds Gary Peters matching his largest lead ever, which he had last October during the middle of the government shutdown. Peters is at 43% to 36% for Terri Lynn Land with third party candidates combining for 7%. The story of the race is Land's continually declining favorability. She has dropped a net 28 points since December, from starting out at +11 (34/23) to falling all the way down now to -17 (32/49). Michigan is a Democratic state to begin with, and Peters is getting 12% of the Republican vote, while only 5% of Democrats say they're going to vote for Land. Voters remain pretty ambivalent toward Peters himself- 35% have a favorable view of him to 36% with an unfavorable one. But with Land extremely unpopular, he continues to be in good shape. One issue playing to Peters' considerable advantage is the minimum wage- voters support increasing it to $10 an hour by a 58/34 spread.

It continues to look more and more like the action in Michigan will be in the Governor's race. Rick Snyder is at 43% to 42% for Mark Schauer with third party candidates combining for 6%. Snyder continues to be unpopular with only 43% of voters approving of him to 51% who disapprove. Schauer's name recognition has increased from 51% to 68% over the last couple months but there hasn't been much change in the close divide on his favorability- 35% of voters see him positively, 33% in a negative light.
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/...as-biggest-lead-snyder-and-schauer-tight.html

Still think Shauer's connections to Granholm will doom him in the end. If he won though...man he'd be in a worse situation than Obama or Virginia's current governor. Deep red legislative body more than willing to blow up any and everything to ensure he fails.
 
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/...as-biggest-lead-snyder-and-schauer-tight.html

Still think Shauer's connections to Granholm will doom him in the end. If he won though...man he'd be in a worse situation than Obama or Virginia's current governor. Deep red legislative body more than willing to blow up any and everything to ensure he fails.
Schauer can still pull it out. Snyder's not as toxic as he used to be but he certainly isn't popular.

Schauer's lead among women is only by 3 points. He'll have to increase that if he wants to win.

DSCC internal has Hagan up 3 (48-45). This is up from a tie in June, apparently. Combined with the Tillis internal yesterday that had it tied I'd say Hagan has a small lead, which could certainly change.
 
@chucktodd 2m

A few campaign items: GOP leads now on more issues than Dems. On deficit, Econ and nat security. #nbcwsjpoll
@chucktodd 2m

Pres. Obama job rating on foreign policy has plummeted to all time low of 32%. Raises stakes for his prime time address tmro night. #nbcwsj

The collapse of the democrat party over the last few years is pretty stunning.

@chucktodd 3m

Most followed news story by the public in last five years were the two American beheadings by ISIS #nbcwsjpoll

@chucktodd 3m

61% are in favor of taking on ISIS in Syria with at least airstrikes. 34% would even support combat troops into Syria. #nbcwsjpoll

war war war
 

Metaphoreus

This is semantics, and nothing more
My proposal is publicly funded campaigns, with equal funding for all candidates, with some time of refundable deposit (let's say $25,000) that you get returned to you as long as you get x percentage of votes (let's say 1%) to weed out the crazies.

Aside from that, no other funding. If unions want to help out, get your fellow union members out to vote. If a CEO wants to move the needle, I don't know, get his country club buddies out to vote.

Here are some of my concerns with your proposal:

(1) Only the wealthy can run for office. Of course, this is more or less already the case, but your proposal would write it into the nation's basic law. If outside funding isn't permitted, then that $25,000 needs to come from either the independent wealth of the candidate or from a loan (if that's even permitted). Only a certain class of person would willingly part with $25,000 just to run for elected office.

(2) Only the government and major media are permitted to engage in mass political communication. I take your comment concerning "other funding" to include not merely campaign contributions, but also independent expenditures (in light of your earlier comments). So, you would restrict the right to mass communication regarding politics to those who are (a) owners of newspapers and television stations, or (b) government funded. That, in itself, is problematic, but given the concerns I raised in (1), above, it's also clear that you're still restricting this right to the very wealthy.

(3) Equal funding harms non-incumbents. Incumbents enjoy a significant advantage over challengers, and by requiring equal funding, you make it more difficult for challengers to overcome that advantage. There are a few ways that you could address this problem, though: for instance, perhaps the advantage to incumbents can be expressed as a dollar amount, and the funding to an incumbent could then be reduced by that amount. (You could also increase the funding to challengers by that amount, but it seems like it would better to simply reduce one person's funding than to increase multiple candidates' funding.) Or, you could implement term limits so that, at some point, there is no incumbent.

(4) $25,000 buys you a taxpayer-funded campaign. What millionaire wouldn't run for office? Living expenses, travel expenses, free advertising, and a many-month non-stop party all paid for by the little people.

Oh, and (5) I've grown kind of fond of the freedom of the press, and would hate to see it eliminated. But your proposal essentially does just that.
 
Here are some of my concerns with your proposal:

(1) Only the wealthy can run for office. Of course, this is more or less already the case, but your proposal would write it into the nation's basic law. If outside funding isn't permitted, then that $25,000 needs to come from either the independent wealth of the candidate or from a loan (if that's even permitted). Only a certain class of person would willingly part with $25,000 just to run for elected office.

Only the wealthy can run for office now. But, as I've said, the $25,000 is refundable as long as you get a certain percentage of the vote. All right though, I'm flexible. You can fundraise up to the $25,000 limit for all the mysterious lower-middle-class candidates that don't exist now.

(2) Only the government and major media are permitted to engage in mass political communication. I take your comment concerning "other funding" to include not merely campaign contributions, but also independent expenditures (in light of your earlier comments). So, you would restrict the right to mass communication regarding politics to those who are (a) owners of newspapers and television stations, or (b) government funded. That, in itself, is problematic, but given the concerns I raised in (1), above, it's also clear that you're still restricting this right to the very wealthy.


Right now, mass political communication is limited to the government, major media, and billionaires who can afford to spend millions on political ads. So, yeah, I'm OK with that. Again, you can have a blog. I'm not saying you can't.

(3) Equal funding harms non-incumbents. Incumbents enjoy a significant advantage over challengers, and by requiring equal funding, you make it more difficult for challengers to overcome that advantage. There are a few ways that you could address this problem, though: for instance, perhaps the advantage to incumbents can be expressed as a dollar amount, and the funding to an incumbent could then be reduced by that amount. (You could also increase the funding to challengers by that amount, but it seems like it would better to simply reduce one person's funding than to increase multiple candidates' funding.) Or, you could implement term limits so that, at some point, there is no incumbent.

I'd actually argue against that. In probably 50% of the races, on both sides, there is no opponent. You might have a guy who races $5,000 and has a website from 1998. If even 25 races in competitive districts now have well-funded challengers who will actually make the incumbents work.

Also, along with public financing, there are limits on both when ads can appear (like most of Europe) and how much you can spend. That makes it more competitive so the political ads that do appear actually matter instead of every news ad break consisting of 25 political ads.

(4) $25,000 buys you a taxpayer-funded campaign. What millionaire wouldn't run for office? Living expenses, travel expenses, free advertising, and a many-month non-stop party all paid for by the little people.

Well, like I said, you have to get a certain percentage, you have to give the $25,000 back. But, in addition, I'll write a provision that allows the FEC to fine campaigns and get restitution from campaigns that aren't actually "campaigns."

Also, again, like I've said, there'll be less total political spending because nobody, (except for Cali or New York due to crazy media markets) are spending $25 million dollars on a Senate race.

Oh, and (5) I've grown kind of fond of the freedom of the press, and would hate to see it eliminated. But your proposal essentially does just that.

The freedom of the press isn't limited. Obamaisasocialist.com can still exist. So can the New York Times. You just can't carpet bomb 50 30-second ads right next to a Tide commercial for three months straight.
 

benjipwns

Banned
The freedom of the press isn't limited. Obamaisasocialist.com can still exist. So can the New York Times. You just can't carpet bomb 50 30-second ads right next to a Tide commercial for three months straight.
So the freedom of the press is limited. Just not for billion dollar corporations like the NYT.

The Senate voted today to advance the Udall Amendment to the First Amendment by a vote of 79-18. It will now be debated before inevitably being put out to pasture as the bad idea it is.
Even worse, this was all an evil plot by Republicans to waste the Senate's time:
Several Senate Republicans joined Democrats on Monday to advance a constitutional amendment that would give Congress and the states greater power to regulate campaign finance.

But the bipartisanship ends there.

Many of the Republicans only voted for the bill to foul up Democrats' pre-election messaging schedule, freezing precious Senate floor time for a measure that ultimately has no chance of securing the two-thirds support necessary in both the House and Senate to amend the Constitution.

The legislation needed 60 votes to advance and Democrats took a cynical view of the 79-18 tally. Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) said the GOP's tactic was simply to "stall" because it would eat up limited floor time that Democrats are eyeing for votes aimed at encouraging gender pay equity and raising the minimum wage.

"They know we're getting out of here fairly shortly and they want to prevent discussion on other very important issues," said Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.). "I would love to be proven wrong. But if [at] the end of this week, we end up getting 67 votes, you can tell me I was too cynical."
 

benjipwns

Banned
The freedom of the press is also "limited" since it can't sell ads to cigarette companies as well.
Yeah, it is. Pretty blatant violation of the First Amendment.

The MSA is an even bigger joke but incredibly beneficial to the major tobacco corporations. Which is why we won't see those rights restored by the USSC.
 
Yeah, it is. Pretty blatant violation of the First Amendment.

The MSA is an even bigger joke but incredibly beneficial to the major tobacco corporations. Which is why we won't see those rights restored by the USSC.

I'm never going to convince you. But, I can convince a swing voter who doesn't want to deal with 100 political commercials per day.
 
Rep. John Tierney from MA-06 just became the first Democrat this election cycle to lose a primary challenge.
Good. He's not too bad but his wife got into some legal trouble that jeopardized his seat in 2012 and this year.

He might have still won (he was greatly underestimated two years ago) but it's not worth the trouble.

NY Dems might have gotten some help winning back the Senate majority, a moderate Repub in an Obama seat lost the GOP nom and one of the Independent Democratic Caucus (a shitty offshoot of the Democrats keeping the GOP in power) has lost to a genuine Democrat, with one more nearly tied.
 
T

thepotatoman

Unconfirmed Member
Cuomo's primary tonight, conventional wisdom said if he received less than 70% he'd consider that a black eye. He's on his way below 60

2016 baby
He had 35 million dollars which was being spent like crazy, he practically bribed his way into endorsement from the labour and working family parties, and he had Hilary and DeBlasio both campaigning for him. And was going up against mostly unknown and unfunded candidates.

You better believe 60-65% is very embarrassing for him.
 

benjipwns

Banned
He had 35 million dollars which was being spent like crazy, he practically bribed his way into endorsement from the labour and working family parties, and he had Hilary and DeBlasio both campaigning for him. And was going up against mostly unknown and unfunded candidates.

You better believe 60-65% is very embarrassing for him.
You're ignoring all the good that his campaign is delivering for the people:
In casting his ballot earlier Tuesday, Cuomo was deliberately low-key – saying he would have no big election victory party, but rather would spend the night at his office doing work.

“I get paid by the hour. I go on overtime after 6 o’clock,” Cuomo said.

“My campaign I’ve been doing every day, 365 days a year,” he told WCBS 880’s Peter Haskell. “My campaign is delivering for the people of the state.”
 

benjipwns

Banned
Only the wealthy can run for office now. But, as I've said, the $25,000 is refundable as long as you get a certain percentage of the vote. All right though, I'm flexible. You can fundraise up to the $25,000 limit for all the mysterious lower-middle-class candidates that don't exist now.
Actually was thinking about this, does this apply to Presidential races too? Because I don't think $50,000 would even get you on enough state ballots to get 270 EV's. (Let alone enough primary ballots if you wanted a major party nomination.)

NPV would be even more of a burden as you couldn't avoid states that you'll blatantly lose but still get 40% of the vote in.

(3) Equal funding harms non-incumbents. Incumbents enjoy a significant advantage over challengers, and by requiring equal funding, you make it more difficult for challengers to overcome that advantage. There are a few ways that you could address this problem, though: for instance, perhaps the advantage to incumbents can be expressed as a dollar amount, and the funding to an incumbent could then be reduced by that amount.
I would just assume that legislators write their "constituent communications" out of the law and use their franking privileges to overpower challengers.

You couldn't have incumbents appearing on talk shows or giving interviews or appearing in the news either, as their endless number of opponents would also require equal time.
 
Late night Michigan poll release has Peters up 10 over Land

BUUF4eo.jpg
 

benjipwns

Banned
In the same poll, Gov. Rick Snyder leads Democrat Mark Schauer 43.6-41.8 percent, Attorney General Bill Schuette is ahead of Democrat Mark Totten 40-38 percent and Secretary of State Ruth Johnson leads Democrat Godfrey Dillard by 6 points.
PD quoted in the article:
“If Terri Lynn Land were focused on very localized Michigan issues, I think that would resonate with voters in a very different way,” Czuba said
 

benjipwns

Banned
CNN and ABC/WaPo now have Republicans at +4 and +3 in generic ballot. That moves the RCP average to +1.6 GOP. The highest since February.

http://www.cnn.com/2014/09/09/politics/cnn-poll-congress/index.html
http://www.washingtonpost.com/polit...2492-37c5-11e4-bdfb-de4104544a37_graphic.html

Equally concerning for Democrats is that the GOP has a 15-point advantage with independent voters on the generic ballot, and Republicans have an edge at this point in supporter enthusiasm.
 
Yes, because more Republican senators are what we need to fix immigration! Is this serious?

Some Latino voters hopeful for sweeping immigration reform and amnesty say they plan to boycott the midterm elections because they're "fed up with President Barack Obama's broken promises."

Fox News reports that several Latino activists have taken to social media and to the press to "voice their anger... about President Obama abandoning his pledge to act on immigration by the end of summer."

The discontented Latinos say they are being taken for granted by the president and the Democratic Party in general.

Matt Barreto, co-founder of Latino Decisions and a political science professor at the University of Washington, told Fox News Latino that "the White House raised hopes in the Latino community" and that polling data suggests that delayed action on immigration will effect Democratic voter turnout come November.

bit.ly/1Axgr6u
 

benjipwns

Banned
That story is (more specifically FOX NEWS LATINO lol) but it's not the only one: http://www.politico.com/magazine/st...e-latinos-should-sit-election-out-110728.html
“Maybe only by paying a price at the polls will Democrats finally stop throwing us under the bus,”

"Our coalition is outraged by President Obama's continued lies and betrayal of the hard working, contributing immigrants who are the fabric of this country,” said Sonia Marquez, North Region Organizer for the Colorado Immigrant Rights Coalition Action Fund. “He has dragged us along for far too long with his false hopes and false promises.”

On Tuesday, members of the Colorado Immigrant Rights Coalition (CIRC) plan to unleash their frustration to hold a rally outside U.S. Sen. Michael Bennet’s office, “to express the anger and disappointment in the President’s decisions and the role of Senate Democrats in asking Obama to delay executive action for political reasons.”

...

“The lack of leadership on this issue from him and Colorado Senators [Mark] Udall and Bennet has not gone unnoticed,” Marquez said. “President Obama and Senate Democrats will continue to be held accountable until they deliver what has been promised and is long overdue."
“In 2012, the DACA [initiative] really mobilized and galvanized the Latino vote, resulting in record high turnout,” Barreto said, referring to the presidential election that November, when nearly three-quarters of Latino voters cast their ballots for Obama. “We had anticipated the same effect in 2014. However, that now appears to be off the table."
He added, “If he does act, history suggests that—much like 2012—action will wipe out all the bad memories and doubts that Latino voters might have had before.”

And if Obama once again fails to deliver on his promise?

“All the unmet promises that ‘I am with you’ would begin to cause a real rift that would harm his legacy,” Brown-Gort told FNL.

And it could alienate many Latinos from voting altogether.

“While Latinos have been leaving the Republican Party in droves, the re-concentration in the Democratic party has yet to solidify,” he said. “A deep sense of betrayal from both parties would be enough to leave Latinos even less politically engaged in the future. This would be a senseless loss for Democrats, since they need Latinos in order to win the demographic bet.”

Here's the thing, I thought the polls showed that Hispanics don't care about immigration much more than the populace as a whole.

PH-2013-12-immigration-03-06.png


And they know about as much as anyone regarding legislation:
PH-2013-12-immigration-02-02.png


PH-2013-12-immigration-02-04.png
PH-2013-12-immigration-02-06.png
PH-2013-12-immigration-05-04.png


PH-2013-12-immigration-04-06.png
PH-2013-12-immigration-04-05.png
 
Yes, because more Republican senators are what we need to fix immigration! Is this serious?



bit.ly/1Axgr6u
Its an overblown threat. Latinos aren't deciding the senate this year.

But even with that said again its similar to many statements by liberals frustrated by the not liberal agenda of the democratic party. If they're not going to do what they promise why trust them? How many times has Obama made excuses and why are we to expect he'll live up to it in November or December? Does he care about the policy or only weighing it in the coat benifit analysis of voters going to the polls being someone not effected by it you can more more easily 'dispassionately' argue this.

If anything I'm reading that and seeing these Latino groups having a good grasp of politics and how to effect the changes they want.
 
CNN and ABC/WaPo now have Republicans at +4 and +3 in generic ballot. That moves the RCP average to +1.6 GOP. The highest since February.

http://www.cnn.com/2014/09/09/politics/cnn-poll-congress/index.html
http://www.washingtonpost.com/polit...2492-37c5-11e4-bdfb-de4104544a37_graphic.html
CRAP 2010 REDUX

pta-disband.gif


Good news though! Grimes is up 1 in a new poll!
Dem internal but I'll take what I can get. And the pollster is really good

And SUSA has Carter down 1, Nunn down 3 in a new Georgia poll. For reference they were both down 9 in their last poll.
 
Everyone in the media is piling on Obama the last few days. It seems top be the in thing to do.

Its a confusion because nobody knows what to do with the threat. They confused and frightened and blame Obama because "he can act" when really the two biggest problems are because of other actor's choices and besides the lack of arming proxies Obama has been responsive to both.
 
Countering the Grimes internal showing her up 1, American Crossroads released an internal poll showing McConnell up 5.

Nate's "6-point rule" to me seems highly exaggerated and arbitrary, but in the case of dueling internals (like yesterday's NC polls showing a tie and a 3 point Hagan lead - a small Hagan lead of 1-2 points is probably more accurate and falls directly between those) I think the best thing to do would be to split the difference and subtract 3 from each poll, which for both polls would put McConnell up 2.

Seems a little unusual to release an internal showing your candidate doing worse than he is in the public polls, but ok.
 

Wilsongt

Member
Countering the Grimes internal showing her up 1, American Crossroads released an internal poll showing McConnell up 5.

Nate's "6-point rule" to me seems highly exaggerated and arbitrary, but in the case of dueling internals (like yesterday's NC polls showing a tie and a 3 point Hagan lead - a small Hagan lead of 1-2 points is probably more accurate and falls directly between those) I think the best thing to do would be to split the difference and subtract 3 from each poll, which for both polls would put McConnell up 2.

Seems a little unusual to release an internal showing your candidate doing worse than he is in the public polls, but ok.

PD readying the champaigne for election night so he can drink up and masturbate furiously about how right he was the entire time and how delusional the rest of us were.
 
PD readying the champaigne for election night so he can drink up and masturbate furiously about how right he was the entire time and how delusional the rest of us were.

Nobody here is delusional. I think everyone here agrees the GOP has a good chance to take the Senate.
 
Nobody here is delusional. I think everyone here agrees the GOP has a good chance to take the Senate.
I'd give them... 5% odds.

Maybe put a 4 in front of that

Wilsongt said:
PD readying the champaigne for election night so he can drink up and masturbate furiously about how right he was the entire time and how delusional the rest of us were.
I only want Hagan to win because of how insufferable PD will be if she loses.
 
so Harry Read confirms his idiotic moron status.

he wants to arm Syrian rebels to fight ISIS.....

the last time that ''moderate'' islamic rebels got armed, they ended up joining ISIS.
 
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