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[thepotatoman]

CNN and ABC/WaPo now have Republicans at +4 and +3 in generic ballot. That moves the RCP average to +1.6 GOP. The highest since February.

http://www.cnn.com/2014/09/09/politics/cnn-poll-congress/index.html
http://www.washingtonpost.com/polit...2492-37c5-11e4-bdfb-de4104544a37_graphic.html

This would be the one thing that would really disappoint me if it maintained to the election, and it seems very likely that it will. Losing a bunch of red and purple state senate races is no huge loss, but losing the nationwide popular vote is baffling. It's just hard to see how many people still think Republicans are honestly best for the country.

Clearly this shift went from +3 Dem to +3 Rep is thanks to the labor day shift from registered to likely voters, so once again turnout is the biggest problem. But good lord that signifies a hell of a turnout gap. About as bad as the one in 2010. Democrats have had a problem with a turnout gap ever since Clinton and the age divide he introduced to american politics, but it was always between a 1 and 4 point gap, not the freaking 6 we're looking at seeing in back to back midterms.

I know democrats acknowledge the problem and are doing some things to combat it, but even so, I'm not sure if they're as serious about it as they should be.

 

[Vlad]

This would be the one thing that would really disappoint me if it maintained to the election, and it seems very likely that it will. Losing a bunch of red and purple state senate races is no huge loss, but losing the nationwide popular vote is baffling. It's just hard to see how many people still think Republicans are honestly best for the country.

Sadly, the Republicans seem to be excellent at the generation and application of Bullshit. The first thing that pops to mind (someone just posted a video about it on Facebook) is how Ted Cruz is always going on about how Dmocrats are trying to "repeal the free-speech protections of the First Amendment."

See, he's not going around saying that Democrats are trying to make it so that corporations can only spend limited amounts on campaigns (you know, what they're actually doing), he's running around screaming that the sky is falling. By reducing the argument to a simmering pile of Bullshit, the right appeals to the people who don't bother to actually look into the issues at hand, and will believe whatever the headline says. I've seen so many headlines from Heritage Foundation or Western Journalism that proclaim "This thing that just happened could completely destroy the Obama presidency", and the article's just talking about something some Fox News guest was speculating.

The Democrats, on the other hand, seem to be just taking the high road, letting the right spew whatever they want and not really directly refuting any of it. I think the idea is that they're hoping that people will see through it, and while some do, many don't. Just judging by the swamp that is my Facebook feed, several friends and relatives that I had assumed were reasonable, intelligent people will repost and "like" article after article of this, going on and on about how Obama's either a tyrant or a weakling (whichever's most convenient that week).

 

[gutter_trash]

So, I've been out of the loop for a while. Why is everybody going crazy over ISIS?

LOL the removal of Saddam Hussein by the US created the power vacuum and nesting ground for ISIS to breed in an alienating Norui Malaki government.

the US has a HUGE roll in fixing what they broke

if Saddam Hussein was still head of Irak, there would be no ISIS today

 

[Avon Barksdale]

Why isnt Jerry Brown running for president?

Because he'll be 78 years old in 2016.

 

[zero shift]

I don't understand why Obama doesn't get more credit for student loan reform. The line about moving some of the amount of private student loans to credit unions have saved my ass in terms of interest rates and repayment options.

Why isnt Jerry Brown running for president?

Because he would rather be Führer one day.

 

[jamesinclair]

Because he'll be 78 years old in 2016.

No older than Hillary or Reagan

 

[Snake]

No older than Hillary or Reagan

Ten years older than Hillary, actually.

 

[Bel Marduk]

CRAP 2010 REDUX

Good news though! Grimes is up 1 in a new poll!

Spoiler

Dem internal but I'll take what I can get. And the pollster is really good

And SUSA has Carter down 1, Nunn down 3 in a new Georgia poll. For reference they were both down 9 in their last poll.

Internal polls are... very unreliable but a Grimes victory would probably be the sweetest plum of the midterms.

 

[Bel Marduk]

Because h would rather be Führer one day.

You are my new favorite person on GAF.

 

[WayneMorse]

Also McConnell is 72 so this will probably be his last term so him losing his final re-election battle would be the funniest thing ever.

 

[Metaphoreus]

See, he's not going around saying that Democrats are trying to make it so that corporations can only spend limited amounts on campaigns (you know, what they're actually doing)

That's not what they're doing. The Democrats who support the proposed amendment keep characterizing it as far narrower than it is. If the goal was to overturn Citizens United, they could simply say: "Congress or a state may prohibit corporations and other artificial entities created by law from advertising political documentaries within X days of an election." If the goal was to combat "dark money," they could simply say: "Congress or a state may require that any person who spends any money to influence elections must disclose the identity of every person from whom, directly or indirectly, such money was received."

But that's not what the proposed amendment says. It says that any spending to influence an election by any person is subject to regulation and "reasonable" limitation, and that all spending by artificial entities to influence an election can be banned. The fact that the Democrats refuse to acknowledge the breadth of the power they're demanding be wielded by the government should suffice to show how bad an idea it is.

EDIT: And, as a PSA, people should remember that if you ever see a link to the WSJ (like Vlad posted), and can't read the whole article because of the paywall, you can just Google the title of the article and click through from the results. You'll be able to read the entire thing.

2D EDIT: Also, note that the article Vlad links to concerns the original text of the proposed amendment, which you can read here. The text of the amendment as currently being debated by the Senate is here.

 

[Black Mamba]

“So tonight, with a new Iraqi government in place, and following consultations with allies abroad and Congress at home, I can announce that America will lead a broad coalition to roll back this terrorist threat. Our objective is clear: we will degrade, and ultimately destroy, ISIL through a comprehensive and sustained counter-terrorism strategy.”

…

“But I want the American people to understand how this effort will be different from the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. It will not involve American combat troops fighting on foreign soil. This counter-terrorism campaign will be waged through a steady, relentless effort to take out ISIL wherever they exist using our air power and our support for partner forces on the ground. This strategy of taking out terrorists who threaten us, while supporting partners on the front lines, is one that we have successfully pursued in Yemen and Somalia for years.”

http://www.washingtonpost.com/polit...fa34cc-391e-11e4-8601-97ba88884ffd_story.html

 

[speculawyer]

Because h would rather be Führer one day.

Well played.

*dives off stage*

 

[NYCmetsfan]

This would be the one thing that would really disappoint me if it maintained to the election, and it seems very likely that it will. Losing a bunch of red and purple state senate races is no huge loss, but losing the nationwide popular vote is baffling. It's just hard to see how many people still think Republicans are honestly best for the country.

Clearly this shift went from +3 Dem to +3 Rep is thanks to the labor day shift from registered to likely voters, so once again turnout is the biggest problem. But good lord that signifies a hell of a turnout gap. About as bad as the one in 2010. Democrats have had a problem with a turnout gap ever since Clinton and the age divide he introduced to american politics, but it was always between a 1 and 4 point gap, not the freaking 6 we're looking at seeing in back to back midterms.

I know democrats acknowledge the problem and are doing some things to combat it, but even so, I'm not sure if they're as serious about it as they should be.

They are, you just can't get some people to vote. Its frustrating

 

[Dominican Power]

http://www.washingtonpost.com/polit...fa34cc-391e-11e4-8601-97ba88884ffd_story.html

People don't understand that you take out ISIL today and another terrorist organization pops up in their place tomorrow. America is perpetually fighting a war on terror. Obama is citing Yemen like there hasn't been tons of collateral damage including the death of an American.

 

[HOMEBOY OVER HERE]

so isis killed a journalist and the country is now repeating it's same dumb fear cycle that we were just starting to recover from after 13+ years?

we are depleting our natural resources while the environment is dying and black kids are getting shot by cops on the street america

 

[Aaron Strife]

so isis killed a journalist and the country is now repeating it's same dumb fear cycle that we were just starting to recover from after 13+ years?

we are depleting our natural resources while the environment is dying and black kids are getting shot by cops on the street america

Actually ISIS killed two journalists

 

[jamesinclair]

Ten years older than Hillary, actually.

The average age of the senate is like 92, and people keep electing them

 

[Measley]

so isis killed a journalist and the country is now repeating it's same dumb fear cycle that we were just starting to recover from after 13+ years?

we are depleting our natural resources while the environment is dying and black kids are getting shot by cops on the street america

Blame the media. They're making ISIS into the second coming of the Mongol horde.

 

[kingkitty]

Is anyone going to make a thread for the Obama speech, seems pretty important.

 

[Averon]

Blame the media. They're making ISIS into the second coming of the Mongol horde.

It seems like no one learned anything from Iraq. Is this a classic case of history repeating itself.

 

[NYCmetsfan]

It seems like no one learned anything from Iraq. Is this a classic case of history repeating itself.

This is nothing like Iraq

 

[Tamanon]

Is anyone going to make a thread for the Obama speech, seems pretty important.

I don't think it'll be that important. Probably say he's passing the buck to Cpongress to authorize. They'llbitch even though they asked for it.

 

[Tamanon]

This is nothing like Iraq

If anything, it's a little like Afghanistan.

 

[NYCmetsfan]

If anything, it's a little like Afghanistan.

A mix of that and Kosovo

 

[PhoenixDark]

This is nothing like Iraq

The war beat and media propaganda is exactly the same. I won't compare the missions, but the run up is the same shit. And this time liberals are playing along.

ISIS poses no threat to the US. A few days ago Chuck Todd reported that the story about the two beheaded Americans was the most followed story on their network in five years. It's pretty clear what's going on here.

 

[East Lake]

Yeah it's exactly like Iraq bro.

Except there's a different administration now.

 

[Tamanon]

I don't think it'll be that important. Probably say he's passing the buck to Congress to authorize. They'll bitch even though they asked for it.

.

Nailed it!

 

[WayneMorse]

Holy shit that was a good speech.

 

[NYCmetsfan]

The war beat and media propaganda is exactly the same. I won't compare the missions, but the run up is the same shit. And this time liberals are playing along.

ISIS poses no threat to the US. A few days ago Chuck Todd reported that the story about the two beheaded Americans was the most followed story on their network in five years. It's pretty clear what's going on here.

Because they didn't the last time?

You keep pretending liberals are supposed to hold your views about not being involved in world affairs. They haven't save for their limited initial opposition to Iraq and then political opposition afterwards. Liberal/progressive ideology makes it much easier to support intervention and "new world order" type actions the end of Obama's speech about US interventionism and it as a force for good is a liberal idea (and one I share). Its the use of government to fix problems that arise and not leaving it to non-state powers to solve.

Historically in the US conservatives have been more reluctant to fight, Nixon, Ford turned away from JFK's and LBJ's active stance. Reagan was pretty reluctant considering he had many opportunities, his foreign interventions tended to follow the doctrine set up by the LIBERAL carter. Clinton was pretty robust in his interventions and we all know the Story of bush.

Your shock and dismay at Liberals supporting military action is quite weird because they always have

 

[PhoenixDark]

Because they didn't the last time?

You keep pretending liberals are supposed to hold your views about not being involved in world affairs. They haven't save for their limited initial opposition to Iraq and then political opposition afterwards. Liberal/progressive ideology makes it much easier to support intervention and "new world order" type actions the end of Obama's speech about US interventionism and it as a force for good is a liberal idea (and one I share). Its the use of government to fix problems that arise and not leaving it to non-state powers to solve.

Historically in the US conservatives have been more reluctant to fight, Nixon, Ford turned away from JFK's and LBJ's active stance. Reagan was pretty reluctant considering he had many opportunities, his foreign interventions tended to follow the doctrine set up by the LIBERAL carter. Clinton was pretty robust in his interventions and we all know the Story of bush.

Your shock and dismay at Liberals supporting military action is quite weird because they always have

Liberals overall supported the Iraq war a decade plus ago? I must have missed this.

 

[Skiptastic]

Holy shit that was a good speech.

Yeah I thought it was very effective.

 

[NYCmetsfan]

Liberals overall supported the Iraq war a decade plus ago? I must have missed this.

If you redefine liberal to what you want maybe not but democratic voters, the liberal establishment and the liberal media generally did.

George Packer (who supported) wrote on the liberal squishyness towards the war

According to a poll released the first week of December, 40 percent of Democrats oppose a war that has been all but scheduled for sometime in the next two months

http://www.nytimes.com/2002/12/08/magazine/the-liberal-quandary-over-iraq.html

The Iraq war's histography has been muddied and its only a decade old.

 

[jamesinclair]

Liberals overall supported the Iraq war a decade plus ago? I must have missed this.

You were either with us or against us bro.

The democrats were balls deep.

Only the greens and left of that were saying no.

 

[PhoenixDark]

You were either with us or against us bro.

The democrats were balls deep.

Only the greens and left of that were saying no.

I remember it, vividly. I wouldn't call Hillary Clinton and multiple dem senators circa 2003 "liberal."

 

[NYCmetsfan]

I remember it, vividly. I wouldn't call Hillary Clinton and multiple dem senators circa 2003 "liberal."

And the people who are now supporting intervention are 'liberal' (using you're no true scottsman definition)?

 

[Diablos]

The way the media has been covering ISIS basically confirms what we've all known to be the truth for quite some time: Real journalism is dead. ISIS is a problem, sure, but the networks are spoon feeding Americans with sensationalist bullshit.

It does such a huge disservice to our country.

 

[kingkitty]

Oh nice, Ted Cruz is sharing his thoughts.

 

[NYCmetsfan]

The way the media has been covering ISIS basically confirms what we've all known to be the truth for quite some time: Real journalism is dead. ISIS is a problem, sure, but the networks are spoon feeding Americans with sensationalist bullshit.

what have they done besides show a video?

have they fabricated evidence, lied about their actions, made this an existential question? like they did with Iraq?

This frustration at people demanding action some don't want is misdirected at the media and some kind of war drum when it seems to me its generally just anger for American's reacting the "wrong way"

 

[Diablos]

They keep showing the videos, they keep having people on the networks shouting from the rooftops that this is the absolute worst thing to ever threaten America.. rinse, wash, repeat. People keep watching it and think it's a bigger deal than it really is.

I remember it, vividly. I wouldn't call Hillary Clinton and multiple dem senators circa 2003 "liberal."

US liberalism died in the 1970's and 1980's...

 

[jamesinclair]

They keep showing the videos, they keep having people on the networks shouting from the rooftops that this is the absolute worst thing to ever threaten America.. rinse, wash, repeat. People keep watching it and think it's a bigger deal than it really is.

Didn't they do this last year with Iran?

And then it's like someone turned the tap off. Went from daily "we must invade our they'll rape our children" to...silence.

 

[Diablos]

Iran is played out, though. ISIS is this new shiny threat the networks are having a field day running their hyperbolic mouths over.

 

[Wilsongt]

In the first debate of the Colorado gubernatorial race last Friday, Republican nominee Bob Beauprez went on the record supporting the seizure of Colorado’s national parks, forests and public lands by the state government, saying “this is fight we have to wage.”

In a video taken by American Bridge, Beauprez, who is challenging incumbent Governor John Hickenlooper (D), claimed that all public land in the state was “supposed to be Colorado’s” and that “if this were private land and the federal government was a tenant, we would cancel their lease.”

Gov. Hickenlooper questioned how Beauprez would plan on footing the bill for such a proposal, noting that estimates show that transferring Colorado’s national parks, forests and public lands to the state would cost taxpayers at least $200 million dollars. Additional estimates of the costs of fighting wildfires on lands transferred to the state could add hundreds of millions of dollars.

Although most Western voters deeply value their public lands, Beauprez is one of several candidates supporting such proposals this election season. As ThinkProgress reported last week, there are a number of right-wing politicians across the country who have been advancing proposals to transfer of control of public lands to states, or to sell them off to the highest bidder for drilling, mining and logging.

These politicians, echoing the beliefs of outlaw rancher Cliven Bundy, who has publicly refused to recognize the federal government’s authority, are also highlighted in the Center for American Progress Action Fund’s “Bundy’s Buddies” series and on the website, BundysBuddies.com. Bundy’s standoff with federal officials over grazing fees owed to taxpayers drew national attention earlier this year.

In addition to his comments at the debate, a Beauprez campaign document entitled, “Liberty’s Promise: My Plan to Protect Freedom and Constitutional Rights,” lays out the former congressman’s plans to “reestablish state rights and duties,” in part by “establish[ing] a process for taking control over public lands back from the federal government.”

I do see.

 

[B-Dubs]

I do see.

This guy needs to lose badly, holy shit.

 

[NYCmetsfan]

http://dailycaller.com/2014/09/10/t...ge-at-middle-east-christian-conference-video/

Ted Cruz Booed Off Stage At Middle East Christian Conference

Ted Cruz is horrible

 

[Wilsongt]

http://dailycaller.com/2014/09/10/t...ge-at-middle-east-christian-conference-video/

Ted Cruz is horrible

Those comments are just as bad.

 

[tanooki141]

This war mongering is disgusting. We'll never learn.

 

[Avon Barksdale]

In three months, nobody's gonna care. Just like Syria.

 

[R10Neymarfan]

But they can now. Just look at GAF whenever an Isis thread comes up

 

[speculawyer]

If anything, it's a little like Afghanistan.

It is a lot like Afghanistan . . . until we fucked it up. With air power, a few special ops on the ground, and the Northern Alliance, we pretty much took over Afghanistan. Something like no more than 200 pairs of boots on the ground.

But then we stuck around, brought in more troops, the Taliban had a resurgence and it became a mess.

I think that with the Iraqi military and Peshmerga, we could eliminate IS from Iraq without too much effort.

Now whether the Iraqis could hold the territory is another story. But perhaps they could learn from their past mistakes and include more Sunni participation in the government and military.