The GOP is losing pretty terribly right now.
Is it because we're getting better at politics? Because it seems like we're all complaining about the stuff we're still doing and we still think the Democrats are terrible at politics.
Or is it maybe just possible that soundbites don't really matter that much and actual policies and outcomes are relevant to people? So that a strategy that revolves around winning a media war while being incapable of passing any actual laws is actually not a very effective one?
People overestimate the amount of people who listen to politics in the media. People also overestimate how many people that do fill in this category don't already have a side chosen.
Unless somebody says something absolutely ridiculous, ala Todd Akin, people are going to vote based on their personal feelings of their lives at that moment and prospects for the future, the likability of someone if it is in play, and their biases along with their general understanding of what is going on but not the minutia of politics.
The GOP is losing so terribly they have a 50/50 shot at winning the Senate and will likely hold the House 'til 2020 despite being a right-wing death cult.
The DNC is winning is because the GOP made a horrible decision to go to Iraq, demographics are slowly moving in our favor, and the bubble popped on their watched. I'll be blunt. If the bubble hadn't popped until the summer of '09, we're likely all talking about Hillary running against President Romney in 2016.
Yes, the Democratic Party is slightly better at politics than it was during the mid-2000's, but that's partly because the mid-2000's Democratic Party were one of the worst political organizations in the modern history of politics.
The GOP lost in 2012 because they're the GOP. Any reasonable party should have won that election.
When Obama won in 2008, I thought he would be a one term President. I figured he would take too much blame for the economy not recovering by 2012 (that was before I thought the GOP would intentionally harm the recovery, mind you) and that was that. But I never foresaw the GOP becoming the party of no substance. To date they have still not offered any real plans other than rehashed ideas nobody believes in any more.
Everything is tax cuts for the rich, tort reform, freer markets. Nobody outside of staunch conservatives believe in this anymore. They lost 2012 because they offered nothing new at all in any sphere of politics. Nada. Zip. Zero. You cannot run a campaign as being "not Obama" or "not Democrat." Even if the ACA was to be a failure, at least it was a concept. Something to possibly say "hey, maybe it will work." The GOP gave nothing like that.
People pick up on this subconsciously. In the back of their minds they think "you know, I don't think the ACA will be any good but the status quo was shit for me and well no one is offering anything else so...okay let's see." And with other ideas, as well.
Notice how most of the GOP ads are "vote for me to stop liberals in Congress." It's never "vote for me because I'll raise the minimum wage and I'll expand medicaid." People need something to hold on to and the GOP gives them zilch right now.
The only thing they can ever say is "I've cut taxes" or "I've voted to cut taxes" and most people already respond with "and it did shit all for me."
So yes, the Dems are generally better at politics than they were. But the key is the GOP is worse. The only reason they've managed to survive this long is because their ability to stifle the economic recovery has succeeded enough to convince a huge chunk of the ignorant electorate that it's Obama's fault because they think the President is like a king. They've exploited ignorance, something that no one can really fight because The President will always take the blame.
The sheer fact that the GOP was not taken control of the Senate yet can only be made possible by sheer incompetence on their part. They should already be in control, not fighting for it right now.
And to go further, it is
very important they don't achieve control now. Failing to take the Senate would be another defeat in a long line of defeats since 2010. Add that to losing governorships and maybe statehouses too. If they can't win the Senate this year, they will likely have no shot at it again until 2020 and by then the Party will be completely different.
A loss now will hurt them. It will mean less money given to the party. It will cause more strife from the party bosses and tea partiers. It will continue to fracture the party. This shit matters.
Every defeat to the GOP brings it closer to its inevitable conclusion of reform or complete seppuku.
