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PoliGAF 2016 |OT| Ask us about our performance with Latinos in Nevada

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I'd argue that Sanders is most unusual because leftists generally cannot achieve national office in America. Vermont is one of the only states who could produce such a candidate (alongside Colorado and potentially the Upper Midwest), and Sanders has the benefit of running against a bevy of candidates unable to attract young voters.

My hope is that Sanders' young voters somehow keep an interest in his brand of soft socialism, and vote for increasingly left legislators. But I don't know how likely that is, given that much of Sanders' appeal comes from personality rather than ideology.

ack9OxA.png

And the next set of 17-29 year olds may want something entirely different in 8 years. I want different things now than I did when I was 18, 22, and probably even 25. I'm still a liberal and have always had liberal views, but my ideas on what is most important changes. The issues Sanders has brought up are important, and will be discussed into the future. Most of them have already been discussed and fought for, just in imperfect ways because you end up always having to compromise.
 

Holmes

Member
Now my facebook feed is just filled with "Obama lost Nevada too! Bernie can still do it!"

I mean, I guess we will see; but I don't think the next few states are going to be kind...



I wonder how many 17-29 year olds there actually were?
Obama then went on to win South Carolina by the same margin Clinton's going to win it next week.
 

tmarg

Member
Young people under 29 are only like 15-17% of people that actually vote.

That's true, but they've also voted for Obama twice and now made a push for Bernie. I think it's safe to say that there has been a generational shift leftward, and it's not just youthful idealism.
 

Ecotic

Member
If Rubio, Cruz, and Kasich can keep Trump from winning the nomination until very late and keep him from pivoting at all towards the general, then that would be optimal.

The math gets real sticky in a 3 way race where Kasich holds onto some delegates. I don't know how Trump would fare in the later winner-take-all blue states. It's a fascinating race going forward.
 
That's true, but they've also voted for Obama twice and now made a push for Bernie. I think it's safe to say that there has been a generational shift leftward, and it's not just youthful idealism.
Obama would have been a bomba if he relied alone on the under 29 vote (like Bernie is).
 
I'd argue that Sanders is most unusual because leftists generally cannot achieve national office in America. Vermont is one of the only states who could produce such a candidate (alongside Colorado and potentially the Upper Midwest), and Sanders has the benefit of running against a bevy of candidates unable to attract young voters.

My hope is that Sanders' young voters somehow keep an interest in his brand of soft socialism, and vote for increasingly left legislators. But I don't know how likely that is, given that much of Sanders' appeal comes from personality rather than ideology.

ack9OxA.png

Well according to my Facebook they're voting for trump now so I don't know if this will positively translate to support for more leftists in state/local off year elections
 

Holmes

Member
Why would Rubio be a good buy for Nevada? Trump has actually been polling better there than NH and SC. There's only 2.5 days for the media to slobber all over the establishment boy.
Polling for Nevada caucuses (especially Republican ones) have always been horrible. But Trump will win, yes.
 
If Rubio, Cruz, and Kasich can keep Trump from winning the nomination until very late and keep him from pivoting at all towards the general, then that would be optimal.

The math gets real sticky in a 3 way race where Kasich holds onto some delegates. I don't know how Trump would fare in the later winner-take-all blue states. It's a fascinating race going forward.

What little polling we have gotten from those states usually has Trump firmly ahead. Michigan has gotten more polling than the rest and Trump has been dominant there. There's not a lot of reason to suspect Trump is more vulnerable in blue or purple states.
 

tmarg

Member
Obama would have been a bomba if he relied alone on the under 29 vote (like Bernie is).

That's not really my point. People in that age group (currently late 20s-early 30s) have stayed consistently left of their parents through several cycles now. I'm sure having a leader like Obama and going through the worst recession in almost a century are a big part of that, but I don't think it's safe to assume they will abandon their ideals as is usually argued.
 
That's not really my point. People in that age group (currently late 20s-early 30s) have stayed consistently left of their parents through several cycles now. I'm sure having a leader like Obama and going through the worst recession in almost a century are a big part of that, but I don't think it's safe to assume they will abandon their ideals as is usually argued.

How generations vote as a whole actually tends to be influenced by who was President during their younger years.

Trump without Jeb is like Batman without Joker

how will Trump go on? I feel empty
Trump will use Jeb as a warning. He will threaten to push someone else off the stage at the next debate using Jeb as an example.
 
That's true, but they've also voted for Obama twice and now made a push for Bernie. I think it's safe to say that there has been a generational shift leftward, and it's not just youthful idealism.
On the one hand, formative years coupled with favourable political experiences tends to ingrain support for a party. So people who grew up under horrible Bush years and voted in Obama, or spent their teens during his presidency are probably likely to stick with the Democrats.

On the other, young people have a variety of conflicting and inconsistent views. There's also likely some basis to the idea that when earning and actually having to pay into the systems that pay back change one's leanings.

It also really can't be overstated how much overwhelming minority support was really one of the keys to Obama's victories.

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On a related note, there's an interesting piece in the NYT on the generational gap in women voters between the two candidates.
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/02/21/o...s-women-love-hillary-clinton.html?ref=opinion
It’s not that young women aren’t feminists, or don’t care about sexism. For college-age women — Mr. Sanders’s female base — sexism tends to be linked to sex. Young women see their clothing choices policed as being too “sexy,” their birth-control options determined by their university or their boss, their right to abortion debated, sexual assault rampant and often badly dealt with on campuses.

In response, they are taking action. They are abortion-clinic escorts, they are reforming campus policies on assault and for transgender students, they are leading the Black Lives Matter movement. Young women are neither ungrateful to their feminist foremothers nor complacent; rather, they are activists for feminist causes that reflect their needs.
....

These experience include being in university environments where there are more female than male students, and coming from high schools where girls outperform the boys. Equal treatment of women and men on college campuses remains regulated, albeit imperfectly, by Title IX. Women attend graduate schools in roughly equal or greater numbers than men. College-educated women see only a tiny pay gap in their early- and mid-20s, making 97 cents for every dollar earned by their male colleagues.

That experience starts to change a few more years into the work force. By 35, those same college-educated women are making 15 percent less than their male peers. Women’s earnings peak between ages 35 and 44 and then plateau, while men’s continue to rise.

What starts out as a near 50-50 professional split among new lawyers, for example, becomes a big gap: Women are just 17 percent of equity partners at law firms generally, according to the National Association of Women Lawyers.

When women have children, they’re penalized: They’re considered less competent, they’re less likely to be hired for a new job and they’re paid less. For men, having a child helps in hiring and pay. For many families, it starts to “just make sense” for the husband to take on the role of primary breadwinner while the wife drops out of the labor force, compromising future earnings when she tries to go back to work.
....

I watched as men with little or irrelevant experience were hired and promoted, because they had such great ideas, or they fit in better. “We want a woman,” the conclusion seemed to be, “just not this woman.”

Watching a primary election in which an eminently qualified woman long assumed to be a shoo-in for the Democratic nomination faces a serious challenge from an older white guy with exciting ideas, many women my age and older hear something familiar, and personal, in the now-common refrain about Hillary Clinton: “I want a woman president, just not this woman president.”
....

There are many other reasons women in the 30-and-over cohort may lean toward Mrs. Clinton. They’ve already seen promises of revolutionary change fall short. They may prefer a candidate with a progressive ideology but a more restrained, and potentially more effective, strategy for putting that ideology in place.

They also want to see a woman in the Oval Office. If it’s not this woman, this year, then who and when?
 

Valhelm

contribute something
Young people under 29 are only like 15-17% of people that actually vote.

The implication is what this means for future elections, as this generational cohort becomes a bigger proportion of the voting body. As the Greatest Generation and even Baby Boomers begin dying, the makeup of the electorate will change. It might shift to the left.

However, I'm not too optimistic. Most Sanders supporters like him because of his aggressively humanist rhetoric and because he's wrongfully considered an outsider. Unfortunately few Sanders supporters care about his stellar voting record or ideology.
 
The implication is what this means for future elections, as this generational cohort becomes a bigger proportion of the voting body. As the Greatest Generation and even Baby Boomers begin dying, the makeup of the electorate will change. It might shift to the left.
I'm probably misinterpreting, but are they becoming a bigger proportion of the voting body though?

CPS%20age.png


Unless you mean that these voters will move into the 30-44 bloc replacing the current generation. In which case the question remains about how views change as you age.
 

Armaros

Member
Watching the various subeddits make so many excuses and conspiracy theories is really something, and oh look, Hillary conspiracies theories hit the front page.

How unexpected /s.
 

tmarg

Member
Just wait till he starts punching Rubio.

I don't know that he will. Rubio supporters probably aren't listening to him, and even if they are they are unlikely to jump to him if he is successful. I wouldn't expect him to go after Rubio unless Cruz drops out.

Attacking Cruz is a smarter strategy. He can actually steal votes from Cruz, and the voters wavering between Cruz and Rubio are unlikely to be swayed by Trump.
 
Today was a good day except Rubot shooting down the Cruz Missile. Jeb dropping out is really horrible for those rooting for Trump.
Jeb Bush supporters, who currently make up around 4 percent of registered Republicans nationally, would disproportionately move into the Rubio camp, with 19% selecting the Florida senator as their second choice. John Kasich is the next most popular, with 16% of Bush supporters selecting him.
Rubio will gain at the very least half of Jeb voters. And the stupid fuckhead Carson is still in, siphoning Cruz voters away into his pyramid schemes.
 

Valhelm

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Sanders has this.

I watched a short TYT video tonight. They said Clinton won because of the black vote in Nevada. They think Bernie won Hispanics. They were sensible on South Carolina though.

Exit polling actually showed a majority of Hispanic votes going to Bernie, but given her solid win I'm guessing that there were some errors in sampling.

I wish there was a way to clearly analyze votes by demographic, to see if Clinton has locked-down on the Hispanic vote or not.

I'm probably misinterpreting, but are they becoming a bigger proportion of the voting body though?
Unless you mean that these voters will move into the 30-44 bloc replacing the current generation. In which case the question remains about how views change as you age.

The latter. As for shifting views, millennials will likely become more conservative than they are now. It's interesting that they're actively supporting a socialist in massive numbers (something no American generation has done), but because Sanders supporters often care more about personality than ideology, I don't know if millennials will pull this country to the left or not.
 
Unlike Gaf isn't everyone's front page of reddit different depending on your account settings?

I'm very interested in when Carson decides he's bilked enough people. I never would have thought that Kasich/Carson would remain after Bush.
 
There will be another more leftist candidate. Bernie lit a fire and some of these young people are going to keep that fire burning.

But if people are going to keep talking about how the revolution is dead...there already is a grass roots revolution happening. It's called Black Lives Matter. While Sanders was trying to pull Clinton to the left, BLM was trying to pull all the candidates towards a social justice platform.
 

tmarg

Member
Unlike Gaf isn't everyone's front page of reddit different depending on your account settings?

I'm very interested in when Carson decides he's bilked enough people. I never would have thought that Kasich/Carson would remain after Bush.

I believe https://www.reddit.com/r/all is the reddit front page with your personal subscriptions disregarded. Or I guess you could just sign out and see what you get as the front page.
 
Exit polling actually showed a majority of Hispanic votes going to Bernie, but given her solid win I'm guessing that there were some errors in sampling.

I wish there was a way to clearly analyze votes by demographic, to see if Clinton has locked-down on the Hispanic vote or not.



The latter. As for shifting views, millennials will likely become more conservative than they are now. It's interesting that they're actively supporting a socialist in massive numbers (something no American generation has done), but because Sanders supporters often care more about personality than ideology, I don't know if millennials will pull this country to the left or not.

Crazy question: What language was used for the exit polling?
 
Exit polling actually showed a majority of Hispanic votes going to Bernie, but given her solid win I'm guessing that there were some errors in sampling.

I wish there was a way to clearly analyze votes by demographic, to see if Clinton has locked-down on the Hispanic vote or not.

We don't have individual voter data but Clinton did well enough in Hispanic neighborhoods its pretty clear she won that demographic.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CbsQBnZUUAAcQ32.png:large

The latter. As for shifting views, millennials will likely become more conservative than they are now. It's interesting that they're actively supporting a socialist in massive numbers (something no American generation has done), but because Sanders supporters often care more about personality than ideology, I don't know if millennials will pull this country to the left or not.

George McGovern was the last candidate this liberal to make it to the general and he also ran a campaign based on getting the youth vote out. It seems that the rest of the 70's and 80's just beat those folks down. Clinton winning here is probably the best thing long-term for this new socialist movement.
 
Looks like I was too hasty in calling the prediction winner for Holmes earlier. Over the course of the night, Ivysaur12 had become the winner, having guessed 53-47 Clinton *airhorn* *airhorn*. He gets to pick the avatar I'll use for at least the next two weeks.
 

Valhelm

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sc0la

Unconfirmed Member
I'm probably misinterpreting, but are they becoming a bigger proportion of the voting body though?

CPS%20age.png


Unless you mean that these voters will move into the 30-44 bloc replacing the current generation. In which case the question remains about how views change as you age.
Let's just get rid of midterm elections. Ugh
That falloff is unconscionable
 

Holmes

Member
Looks like I was too hasty in calling the prediction winner for Holmes earlier. Over the course of the night, Ivysaur12 had become the winner, having guessed 53-47 Clinton *airhorn* *airhorn*. He gets to pick the avatar I'll use for at least the next two weeks.
:'( you kill me
 
LettersGAF still wins. Although the odds were probably stacked in this thread.
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I highly doubt they did multi-lingual exit polling.

Anyway, I think the general premise is that she's unlikely to have won Clark County by ten points without having also won the Hispanic/Latino vote there. Or I guess alternatively she won the white vote by some margin.
 

User 406

Banned
The Guardian results page has the SC primary at 100%, and since there was that little glitch where Trump painted over a Rubio county and then Rubio painted it back, that page will now have a little pixel Rubio forever warning us about the fiction that Obama doesn't know what he is doing, because he knows exactly what he is doing...
 
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