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PoliGAF 2016 |OT| Ask us about our performance with Latinos in Nevada

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W

watershed

Banned
benjipwns said:
Pat Buchanan, 1996. (Dole lost five of the first six primaries, got only 26% in Iowa.)

George H.W. Bush, 1980. (In 1988, he would fail to win seven of the first ten.)

In 2008, Mitt Romney won three of the first five. (And finished second in Iowa.)
Click to expand...
NPR says no candidate has won 3 of the first 4 and not gone on to win the nom. I don't think your examples disprove them, unless their research is wrong. Did Buchanan win 3 of the first 4? Did one candidate win all the primaries Bush lost, including 3 of the first 4? Or in the Romney example?
 
S

sphagnum

Banned
do you guys think jeb! will en*horn*dorse Trump at the convention while blubbering and stammering like a big fat mess with a look of abject hatred on his face or will he take the High Ground and never bow to such ignominy
 
HUELEN10

HUELEN10

Member
sphagnum said:
do you guys think jeb! will en*horn*dorse Trump at the convention while blubbering and stammering like a big fat mess with a look of abject hatred on his face or will he take the High Ground and never bow to such ignominy
Click to expand...

High ground secretly hoping for a call as VP.
 
D

danm999

Member
sphagnum said:
do you guys think jeb! will en*horn*dorse Trump at the convention while blubbering and stammering like a big fat mess with a look of abject hatred on his face or will he take the High Ground and never bow to such ignominy
Click to expand...

Trump will come out on stage and give him a wedgie and tell him he doesn't want or need his endorsement.
 
A

Abinash117

Member
Jarmel said:
One point the pundits at CNN made and I think is very true is that Trump has improved as a politician and is in many ways better than the actual politicians he's competing against. He has a very clear concise message and he has built a brand that seems to weather anything against him.
Click to expand...

That is because the rest of the people are very weak.
 
J

jiggle

Member
sphagnum said:
do you guys think jeb! will en*horn*dorse Trump at the convention while blubbering and stammering like a big fat mess with a look of abject hatred on his face or will he take the High Ground and never bow to such ignominy
Click to expand...

Jen will probably be happy that trump annihilates judas
 
benjipwns

benjipwns

Banned
watershed said:
NPR says no candidate has won 3 of the first 4 and not gone on to win the nom. I don't think your examples disprove them, unless their research is wrong. Did Buchanan win 3 of the first 4? Did one candidate win all the primaries Bush lost, including 3 of the first 4? Or in the Romney example?
Click to expand...
2008: Iowa (Huckabee), Wyoming (Romney), NH (McCain), Michigan (Romney), Nevada (Romney), SC (McCain)

1996: Alaska (Buchanan), Louisiana (Buchanan), Iowa (Dole), NH (Buchanan), Delaware (Forbes), Arizona (Forbes)

1988: Michigan (Bush), Hawai'i (Robertson), Kansas (Dole), Iowa (Dole), NH (Bush), Nevada (Bush), Minnesota (Dole), SD (Dole), Wyoming (Dole), Maine (Bush), Alaska (Robertson)

1980: Iowa (Bush), Puerto Rico (Bush), NH (Reagan), Massachusetts (Bush)
 
B

BoboBrazil

Member
Will the snowball effect happen? Will more and more people start voting Trump due to them thinking he has the nomination? People like to back a winner.
 
W

watershed

Banned
benjipwns said:
2008: Iowa (Huckabee), Wyoming (Romney), NH (McCain), Michigan (Romney), Nevada (Romney), SC (McCain)

1996: Alaska (Buchanan), Louisiana (Buchanan), Iowa (Dole), NH (Buchanan), Delaware (Forbes), Arizona (Forbes)

1988: Michigan (Bush), Hawai'i (Robertson), Kansas (Dole), Iowa (Dole), NH (Bush), Nevada (Bush), Minnesota (Dole), SD (Dole), Wyoming (Dole), Maine (Bush), Alaska (Robertson)

1980: Iowa (Bush), Puerto Rico (Bush), NH (Reagan), Massachusetts (Bush)
Click to expand...
These primaries are in chronological order? If so then NPR was wrong in 2 instances.
 
benjipwns

benjipwns

Banned
watershed said:
These primaries are in chronological order? If so then NPR was wrong in 2 instances.
Click to expand...
Primaries and caucuses, I assume NPR was including caucuses otherwise it's a bit useless since two of the races so far have been caucuses and it'd be dumb to declare two of the Super Tuesday primaries to be "first" for such a purpose.

In 2008, Romney beat McCain in Iowa, so he beat McCain in four of the first five primaries.

In 1988, Dole beat Bush by state delegates, so Dole beat Bush in three of the first four.
 
E

Ecotic

Member
sphagnum said:
do you guys think jeb! will en*horn*dorse Trump at the convention while blubbering and stammering like a big fat mess with a look of abject hatred on his face or will he take the High Ground and never bow to such ignominy
Click to expand...

I presume a large portion of the party will skip the convention and not endorse Trump, and distance themselves from his candidacy. So many wings of the party hate Trump and everything he stands for: quasi-libertarians, neocons, Bush moderates, New England Republican types like Mitt Romney, and a healthy portion of evangelicals. Trump may have a very lonely convention.
 
E

Elaugaufein

Member
Ecotic said:
I presume a large portion of the party will skip the convention and not endorse Trump, and distance themselves from his candidacy. So many wings of the party hate Trump and everything he stands for: quasi-libertarians, neocons, Bush moderates, New England Republican types like Mitt Romney, and a healthy portion of evangelicals. Trump may have a very lonely convention.
Click to expand...

I'm not sure the quasi-libertarians do hate Trump. Rand's vote is noticeably lower than you'd expect this year (based on Ron's vote and Rand's higher profile as a Senator) and Trump seems to be the most likely candidate for them to go too (he's basically the hyper-capitalist wet dream).
 
C

Chezzymann

Member
A virtual tie is the best case scenario for Trump. Keep those two fighting it out to be the alternative to trump, and if they cant settle it there will be no alternative.
 
benjipwns

benjipwns

Banned
Since somebody mention libertarians and their votes, as the Ur-Libertarian on PollinGAF...

This literally had Cruz and Sanders flipped on Sunday when I took it, and Johnson at 82% instead of 91%. Goofy. 10/19/2015 unweighted (i.e. didn't pick "more important", etc.) results to the right:
4A3kpuf.png
anFxAp3.png


Parties don't seem to have changed from Sunday, but Constitution Party has upped its game since October:
6qTOpQ7.png
7dmI9j7.png
 
B

Black Mamba

Member
Cruz took the lead. 100 precincts in clark county reported and gave him the lead. It's actually close there, now.

Who knows who actually gets second.
 
W

watershed

Banned
How did the RNC turn what was suppose to be an all-star field into this mess? Going into the primary, republicans couldn't stop talking about how strong their field was with Bush, Christie, Kasich, Rubio, etc, all serious republicans with results, character, electability and now they have nothing but Rubio who can't win a primary to save his life.
 
B

Basileus777

Member
Clark County vote is coming in and Rubio is firmly back in 2nd place and won't lose it. None of the vote still outstanding is from counties where Cruz is outperforming Rubio.

I figure Trump will finish with around 46-47%.
 
B

Black Mamba

Member
Basileus777 said:
Clark County vote is coming in and Rubio is firmly back in 2nd place and won't lose it. None of the vote still outstanding is from counties where Cruz is outperforming Rubio.
Click to expand...

yeah, it just flipped back. In fairness, Clark County was the only one reporting when it flipped to Cruz. He won the last 100 precincts in Clark before the last update so it's not definite but likely Rubio.

edit: it was actually wasohe that gave it back to Rubio.


Kasich is ont dropping out now, he didn't campaign Nevada really.
 
benjipwns

benjipwns

Banned
There's no point in dropping out now for Kasich or Carson. It's a week until Super Tuesday and there's so many PR states you don't need to blanket specific ones.

Carson and Kasich might have just enough cash to do a Fox News ad buy or two. And that's really all you need to go with the debate on Thursday to effectively "campaign" in all the states.

Especially since it'll be the first non-Jeb debate.

That combined might allow one of them to punt things a little further into mid-March.

Speaking of Carson, everyone's talking about Jeb...but Carson has somehow spent $60 million in this race. $20 million more than Rubio and Cruz each. And Carson's SuperPACs are so shitty they might as well not count.
 
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