bad news for Rubio
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PoliGAF 2016 |OT| Ask us about our performance with Latinos in Nevada
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bad news for Rubio
Frank the Great
Banned
Benji, nice Always Sunny references before.
In that situation, Obama wouldn't be able to delay; presumably he would have already nominated someone which the Republicans can choose to push through. Which is why he should nominate a solid liberal from the get-go.
Although honestly, a moderate Justice would not be so bad. It would still be a huge improvement on Scalia and Hilldawg will get a couple of appointments at least.
In that situation, Obama wouldn't be able to delay; presumably he would have already nominated someone which the Republicans can choose to push through. Which is why he should nominate a solid liberal from the get-go.
Although honestly, a moderate Justice would not be so bad. It would still be a huge improvement on Scalia and Hilldawg will get a couple of appointments at least.
What do we know about those highlighted counties?
Plinko
Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
The rest were divided between Carson, Kasich, and Jeb.
That is horrific news for Rubio.
Chezzymann
Member
Wait why is that bad news for rubio
But great news for America.
Trump leads Rubio by like 20 points in Florida right now. The more of an early lead he racks up, the harder it'll be to catch him.
I also believe Florida is winner takes all, so...
Look, he clearly has no appreciation for Michael Bolton's music.
Box of Kittens
Banned
It won't matter when Rubio gives that second place victory speech. Feel the Marcomentum!
Elaugaufein
Member
A president can withdraw a Supreme Court nomination albeit it would look really bad to do so without a justified reason.
Why is that bad news for Rubitron?
Is it that that is high turnout or the early voting will follow the current polls which show Trump up?
Captain Pants
Killed by a goddamned Dredgeling
I don't know why that surprises me. I just always assume the worst of Butch, and figured he'd be backing Cruz.
RastaMentality
Banned
Kasich on Ohio poll: At least it's better than Marco is doing in Florida
LOL Kasich getting 2nd in NH was one of the best things to happen.
LOL Kasich getting 2nd in NH was one of the best things to happen.
QuiteWhittle
Member
It's just a bunch of hypotheticals and assumptions? Would Clinton's unfavoribility matter when Trump would be the most unpopular presidential candidate in decades? What reason does he believe that Trump would pull away black support? Why does he think Clinton would meekly fight back Trump's dirty tactics with policy when the Clintons are no strangers to getting dirty themselves? Why is he pretending to know Trump's strategy in the GE?
He's just assuming the disaster scenario and writing it, you can do that with any match-up.
any article that's basis is electability for a candidate based on this wave of anti-establishment fervor where said candidate is LOSING is not a good start for an article.
He had to know going into it he was a fringe guy. I'm guessing he's hoping that it gets to the convention where he can play an outsize role.
ItWasMeantToBe19
Banned
Kasich troll game getting stronger
With no regard for Rubio's life. Well, functionality more than life.
BoboBrazil
Member
Yesssss Kasich go after Rubio.
Elaugaufein
Member
Both. The high turnout and early voting now leaves less late deciders to vote for Rubio and gives Trump more tailwind going in. It may not be as bad for Rubio as that suggests though, the reason conservative voters tend to prefer mail in ballots is because they are older and rural, which means the establishment types (who are more urban) who may coalesce around Rubio are less likely to be in those early voters. Its unusually high turn out among people voting in person in those more urban areas that Rubio needs to worry about , if they've already voted for Kasich those are votes he can't get back even if Kasich drops.
Your answer to me, "What are swing states?" is the same reason why you cannot understand why that article is stupid.
The US is comprised of 50 states. "Swing states" (can also be referred to as "toss ups") refer to the states in the general election that usually determine the winner.
The reason for that is that there are states that are solidly liberal (California, New York, Massachusetts, etc.) and are considered, for current elections, to always be Democratic. Similarly, there are states that are solidly conservative (Alabama, Tennessee, etc.) and will always go Republican. Therefore, from the start of the election, each side has a 'baseline score', and the first to achieve a 'score' of 270 wins.
Where swing states come in are that they are, through various metrics, the states most likely to be able to go either Dem or Rep, depending on the political climate.
An example of how this works is best illustrated by this table that Cook Political Report has. If you scroll down you will be able to see the geographical representation of their assessment, and the numbers that they consider to be 'baseline' for each side.
Democrats unquestionably have the advantage. To understand why, you have to get a bit historical. In the Cook chart, D starts with 223, R with 206. In the "toss ups" column, there's actually two states there that are somehow considered "swing state" because of various factors, but historically, Pennsylvania hasn't voted for a Republican presidential candidate since 1988, and Wisconsin hasn't voted for a Republican candidate since 1984. What that means is that you can estimate the baseline of Democrats to be at 253 instead of 223. Which means they are much, much closer to 270 than the Republicans are.
For Republicans to win, they have to literally win all of the swing states. It's a tall order even for a non-extreme Republican, so if you're thinking the extreme Trump being able to do it, it's pretty much impossible.
The author of the article you linked uses no math in his arguments about how Hillary v. Trump equals a Trump win. He doesn't not sit down and consider if certain states may shake loose from the Democratic column and go Trump in a hypothetical Hillary v. Trump match up, because in a HvT match up, none of those states would shake loose—in fact they would solidify in Hillary's camp even more so. If Trump is bad enough, it's possible to even threaten Republican territory by driving up minority vote (Arizona, Georgia).
I think oftentimes when people evaluate the general election from this far away, with few polls, they don't properly assess the situation. Elections are war; if you want to evaluate it, then you should learn the rules, the conditions, the battlefield. fanto, you're falling into the same trap as the primaries; people who suddenly learned about superdelegates should have known about them from the start. Don't do the same for the general election.
If you're feeling up for some learning, here's a link to see past presidential elections and how the states voted. The same site has an interactive feature on its main page for you to toggle states to test your own ideas.
I think I said this earlier in the thread, but you guys are mind-gaming yourselves too hard
ItWasMeantToBe19
Banned
Rank Trump VP options in likelihood:
Voldemort
Morning Joe
Duncan Hunter
Fuckabee
Christie
Kasich
Voldemort
Morning Joe
Duncan Hunter
Fuckabee
Christie
Kasich
Angela and Andrea?
Abinash117
Member
That narrative is built by a segment of Republicans and some independents. I think people are mistakenly attributing the anti-Establishment feelings from the primary GOP to the entire electorate. I partially blame the media, pundits, politicians, and voters using neutral and broad terms like it applies to everyone. Democrats don't have that issue in such an extreme because if they did they would be supporting Bernie over Hillary, and if Bernie loses many states in the primary than as a whole the Dem primary electorate does not have the same feelings as part of the GOP does and poll shows that Hillary has large support from Democrats. So that won't work on Democrats; if Bernie whose whole platform is built on billionaire's, wallstreet, the little man, and the "establishment" can't beat Hillary in the near future than it won't work on Hillary. On the Republican side many people still support establishment candidates and everyone knows those guys have a huge amount of donors including supporters. That rhetoric will mostly work on people who won't vote for Hillary to begin with.
What Donald Trump is doing is taking advantage of the dysfunction.
BoboBrazil
Member
Is it really that advantageous to say Obama's vetting a Republican as a SCOTUS nominee? Why not just put forward who he actually wants, presumably someone who is a Democrat? I mean, I've been reading for years about how important it is to have a Democrat in the White House for this precise moment, so if we've all been working so hard to get this point, GO FOR IT, right?
Morning Joe would be fucking awesome and also result in a Dem landslide.
Do it Trump.
Bring Mika along as a surrogate.
Elaugaufein
Member
Hmmm.
(Most to Least)
Morning Joe
Christie (Based on nuking Rubio for him)
Kasich (If Rubio's nuking doesn't stick and Kasich ends up carrying it for him, then swap them)
Duncan Hunter (Trump knows no loyalty only power)
Voldemort / Huckabee (neither of them are likely to bring anything to Trump's existing base)
Orbis Tabula
Member
Haha, probably. I don't think that'll actually happen. Just curious about the hypothetical. It seems tempted to say Obama should delay, but then that feels crazy hypocritical. The one poster (I'm on mobile and don't feel like quitting my typing of this response to look up who) probably had the right strategy if this unlikely event happen: Obama would just keep nominating liberals
JesseEwiak
Member
You float a Republican out there - other Republican's like Deb Fischer say really dumb things. You get to the say the Republican's are so extreme that they'll say they won't even nominate a respected moderate who has all the qualifications in the world, being a current Governor and a former Circuit Judge.
As a result, the polls move against Republican's in states like New Hampshire, Illinois, and the like, making those Republican's go to McConnell and say, "we need to look like we support hearings on a nominee."
From there, you can then nominate a moderate like Siri or if things look really bad for the GOP, float an actual liberal up there whose less liberal than who Hillary the Destroyer would nominate with a Democratic Congress.
Yeah, to hell with this Sandoval talk and anyone more moderate than Srinivasan. If Democrats can't win with a soft opponent like Trump as the nominee and with the Republican party splintered in disarray, then it's just time to pack it up anyway.
Obama needs to nominate Lynch or someone to make Republicans pay the maximum price in November, and then have Hillary nominate a staunch liberal next year with a Democratic Senate.
lastflowers
Banned
I think that one lays in the 'too crude to print' category, which probably bundles up a decent amount.
Poodlestrike
Banned
Definitely Voldemort. He thinks it'd give him Florida.
After that...
-Christie
-Duncan Hunter
-Fuckabee
-Kasich
-Morning Joe
I like the idea of Voldemort just because it seems in keeping with the themes of the absurdist political farce we now call reality that Trump would have an imaginary person as the other half of his ticket.
Orbis Tabula
Member
Also, why the hell hasn't there been an Arrested Development themed debate thread? Jeb Bush literally is Gob Bluth. His name is his initials, he made a huge mistake, Columba is Marta, his mother doesn't care for him, he's desperate for his father's approval, he lives in the shadow of his more accomplished brother, he knocked up a Catholic girl (and they stay pregnant), then converted to her church, they both demand to be taken seriously, his family is tied to Iraq, and neither of them really want to be president (but they'd like to be asked!)
Officerrob
Banned
The next month looks bad for Bernie, hopefully those folks don't take it too hard
Elaugaufein
Member
Is he suggesting an endorsement or an assassination ? I can't tell.
If one wanted any more evidence that this is either people's first election or their first election in which they looked at how it works.
Jeb is Tobias
I can't find it either. Maybe they haven't released it yet? Debate was originally supposed to be on Friday too
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