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PoliGAF 2016 |OT11| Well this is exciting
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BotoxAgent
Member
Yup me too. She squandered her lead so easily. I'm getting kinda pissed thinking about it.
AntraxSuicide
Banned
1) Remember the national numbers aren't as important as state numbers. If Trump got 100% turnout in Mississippi and Alabama, he'd probably win the popular vote, but it'd be pointless.
2) The margin is just more evidence that the nation is this polarized. The Supreme Court having an open seat is as much a rallying cry for the Right as it is the Left.
whyamihere
Banned
YouGov numbers are interesting.
Hillary: 44 (+4)
Trump: 41 (+3)
Johnson: 5 (-2)
Stein: 2 (-)
Hillary and Trump both gaining, Hillary opening up a slightly larger lead, and the potential start of a collapse of Johnson?
Hillary: 44 (+4)
Trump: 41 (+3)
Johnson: 5 (-2)
Stein: 2 (-)
Hillary and Trump both gaining, Hillary opening up a slightly larger lead, and the potential start of a collapse of Johnson?
TumblingHippo
Member
I dunno how much it's on her versus a legion of Republicans, including Ted Cruz, getting into line and supporting their (R) nominee.
Thequietone
Member
Already ahead of you. I think if anything it has made me worry more though. Just saw CBS say dead heat and had the most epic eyeroll....
ItWasMeantToBe19
Banned
So you're saying Kanye has a chance?
Good. Who gives a shit. Do you think any of us would be worse off if the bumfuck parts of the country and Ohio got cast off into the ocean? The United States of New Englandia could be a financial services powerhouse and everyone would be forced to get abortions.
whyamihere
Banned
Yeah, I wonder if Johnson and Stein are going to see their support evaporate outside of areas like Utah or Vermont.
BotoxAgent
Member
I dunno how much it's on her versus a legion of Republicans, including Ted Cruz, getting into line and supporting their (R) nominee.
You have a good point, but her being silent for most of August pretty much sapped out all the enthusiasm and goodwill that they built from the DNC--she should have kept working getting the rest of the skeptical progressives in line.
Aaron Strife
Banned
Thequietone
Member
Never heard or seen anything that suggests he's a Democrat.
hipsterpants
Member
As a history nerd, the historical aspect of this election is absolutely fascinating to me. Some of my dad's friends (all born in the 50s) compared 2016 with 1968 in terms of awful shit happening. I'm curious how the level of social and cultural upheaval going on right now compares to what went on in the 1960s-early 1970s. Part of why seeing Trump baked in with 42% of the vote isn't that shocking to me, considering we're in the middle of a full blown cultural war. The polarization is a result of the two different sides deciding to take over one or the other party. Also why I find myself being more and more frustrated with my fellow millennials for taking so many of the advancements for granted starting with the election of Obama. It would take very little for the other side to end up winning, and in some areas they already are.
Of course when I say fascinating I only mean on a historical level. Actually living in it is kind of terrifying lol.
Of course when I say fascinating I only mean on a historical level. Actually living in it is kind of terrifying lol.
ItWasMeantToBe19
Banned
A lot of minorities live in the South.
If the midwest and mountain west (other than Colorado) broke apart, okay, but the union falling before Georgia and the rest of the Deep South is majority minority (and Texas gets less religious) would be bad.
I don't think trump will break 45% of the vote on November 8th, but he will definitely break 40%.
Eh he supported Dems during the last midterms and asked people to do the same so that's probably as good as we know.
balladofwindfishes
Member
It's a product of how polarized we've become.
It'll take Bugs Bunny a while to saw the whole thing off, they can make it if they hurry.
TumblingHippo
Member
It's hard to speak while entombed in a vat of rejuvenative goo made from the souls of children of Benghazi
whyamihere
Banned
I have to imagine the Clinton campaign to be pretty excited about Johnson dropping (the same thing was happening in the ABC/WaPo poll). I think Mook said on This Week they were seeing this as well?
BotoxAgent
Member
But what was her body double doing tho?
Let's hope Johnson drops to around 2 or 3 percent while trump stays below 45%.
whyamihere
Banned
The more the election looks like 2012, the better I'd feel.
NYCmetsfan
Banned
Did Newt just read Bad Nate's book?
TumblingHippo
Member
Fundraising until it ran out of batteries on 9/11
AntraxSuicide
Banned
Yep, exactly.
Yeah, the South is going to end up like Japan (with a rapidly aging population and no replacement from either young people or new residents), but the minorities stuck here after that shift are going to be screwed if they don't end up making up a majority of their states. I can only see Mississippi going that route (and I'd ignorantly think Louisiana at first glance, but I don't know enough about the state to say definitively that New Orleans could blanket the state). Mississippi doesn't really have metro areas since Jackson is the largest and it's less than 10% of the state's population, but the Delta is a good 30-40% of the state (at least voting-wise). If white young people keep leaving, while minority youths stay trapped due to income, then the Delta could end up influencing the state more in the next 20-30 years.
The hard part of that is that since it's so far in the future, there are likely to be electoral shifts that change that in the coming years. When 2019's gubernatorial election rolls around (likely Tate Reeves vs Jim Hood, if I'm lucky), this state will be on a razor's edge. Phil Bryant's economic policy has been ruinous at best (including an accounting error that ended up costing the state like 40 million dollars), and Reeves hasn't been building any good will with the state (nothing negative either; he just comes off like a yes man and a bit of an idiot). Hood's gets much better attention, and I think he's got a real shot at it.
sazzy
Member
Re: Moderators
I don't think debate moderators should explicitly be fact-checking in the debate.
For example, if Trump says "Water is not wet", the moderator should say, "Hang on Mr. Trump; Sec Clinton, would you like to respond to that?"
If the moderator starts explicitly injecting his/her own statements into the debate, then half of the people watching are going to think the debates are rigged and completely tune out of the rest of the debate.
Someone on CNN or MSNBC was saying a couple of days ago that Clinton should make Google her best friend in the debate - if Trump says something outrageously false, all she has to do is address the TV audience and ask them to Google and check if what Trump says is true or false.
The moderators should make sure that both parties are addressing the debate topic, and that both are getting roughly equal time to speak. And that's it.
I don't think debate moderators should explicitly be fact-checking in the debate.
For example, if Trump says "Water is not wet", the moderator should say, "Hang on Mr. Trump; Sec Clinton, would you like to respond to that?"
If the moderator starts explicitly injecting his/her own statements into the debate, then half of the people watching are going to think the debates are rigged and completely tune out of the rest of the debate.
Someone on CNN or MSNBC was saying a couple of days ago that Clinton should make Google her best friend in the debate - if Trump says something outrageously false, all she has to do is address the TV audience and ask them to Google and check if what Trump says is true or false.
The moderators should make sure that both parties are addressing the debate topic, and that both are getting roughly equal time to speak. And that's it.
Aaron Strife
Banned
Worst universe: Johnson's right-wing support is going to Trump, Johnson's leftist support stays put. Trump wins by plurality
A lot of the South except for VA, NC and soon GA don't have enough people in the suburbs/city to outvote the rest of the rural state.
The flip side of that is leaves the House much more difficult to obtain since its by district and map setup. Why PA is 13-5 Republican despite Hillary possibly winning by 8 there.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Unite...from_Pennsylvania#2013.E2.80.932023:_18_seats
Thequietone
Member
I have a few in me but I need to get this out there in the universe. My mother hated Trump with a passion in the 90's when she was still alive and the fact my older brother will vote for this man just to protect his guns disgusts me. I want to tell him our mother would find your actions a disgrace, but I know it accomplishes nothing. God, I miss her. Thanks if you bothered to read this.
ItWasMeantToBe19
Banned
http://www.270towin.com/maps/b1ekQ
Is there any way to remove the immigration cap for a country if the people are willing to go to Louisiana, Georgia, or Mississippi?
(Potential map where no white people other than atheists and super educated vote D and no people of color vote R).
Is there any way to remove the immigration cap for a country if the people are willing to go to Louisiana, Georgia, or Mississippi?
(Potential map where no white people other than atheists and super educated vote D and no people of color vote R).
User 463088
Banned
Hey, I'm super sorry. : hugs : Not really the most, you know, inspiring or uplifting post on my part, but I know how hard it is to miss a parent.
watching a couple bad polls for colorado coming in isn't fun. maine's 2nd district seems to be 100% lost, which is just sad. i don't think she'll make it up with omaha either. at this rate, i think she needs nv or nc as insurance. the latter seems to be surprisingly more solid.
Spiritreaver
Member
Would someone please hook me up with the discord?
Honestly, I'm not bothered at all with the idea of moderators not calling out the candidates. Yes, in one sense it kind of sucks, but in another sense it's probably preferable since this will allow Hillary free reign to call out Trump. And this also has the added benefit of benefiting Hillary by not having the idiot moderator press her on why she lied to the America people about Benghazi/her emails.
All these polls showing Hilary and Trump in a virtual tie have me scared shitless. However, I remember how fucked Trump was in states Cruz had a strong ground game. Hillary has a strong(er than Trump) ground game in the states that count. That's the only thing giving me a bit of hope.
Clinton: "What my opponent says about my health is an outright lie. Just google Hillary's Health."
titiklabingapat
Member
I'm not really surprised. Areas where educated whites (along with minorities) reside will probably define this election.
Thequietone
Member
: Hugs : Thanks. I've lost both of mine. I only really think of them whet I'm drunk or sometimes during poetry/short stories I write.
Or say something like "Donald, you cannot say whatever you want. The people of America have access to google, ya know. They can fact check everything you say."
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