Don't panic about the polls just yet, if we're still in a 'virtual tie' by the second debate than you can panic.
Don't panic. Vote.
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PoliGAF 2016 |OT11| Well this is exciting
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Don't panic about the polls just yet, if we're still in a 'virtual tie' by the second debate than you can panic.
I think that is one big flaw if hilary tries a strategy like that.
If she gets a big enough national vote lead again I think she will win nebraska's second district. The same with Maine's second district probably.
Thequietone
Member
We don't want her wasting all of her time fact checking either. The mod should be impartial but if Trump claims he didn't say something or doesn't recall saying it should be fact checked. (Same goes for Hillary obviously, but Trump is more likely to do this).
User 85168
Banned
RustyNails
Member
What if Trump looks at the camera and says, "look, do you trust me or lyin crooked Hillary? I'm not a politician!! SHES LYIN. LYINNN"
Cesare Borgia
Banned
Moderates almost never fact check, this is nothing new. The hand wringing over this I've seen on twitter today is just another example of liberals crying like they're losing. I really don't get this mentality. Trump is going to lie, a lot. Hillary is going to tell some lies too. It'll be up to the American people (and unfortunately the media) to make their own opinions. Trump's lies are pretty predictable and obvious so I'm not worried about that.
It's hard for me to imagine a scenario in which Trump doesn't implode once or twice during the debate. And it won't have anything to do with fact checks or lies or anything else, it'll be Trump being Trump.
It's hard for me to imagine a scenario in which Trump doesn't implode once or twice during the debate. And it won't have anything to do with fact checks or lies or anything else, it'll be Trump being Trump.
BlastProcessing
Member
At the end of the day, the American people will believe that shit or they won't.
Agreed. A moderator's job is to make space for rebuttals. As long as they do that, it's fine.
I don't get the crys for the media to interject itself. American's already have disdain for the media. The media has lower favorables than either Clinton or Trump. Why would people even listen to them if they fact checked?
EatinOlives
Member
It seems to me like the new batch of polls contracted Hillary's lead for seemingly no reason whatsoever, which is fairly frustrating considering cable news is gonna talk up the DEAD HEAT!!!!!!! narrative all day tomorrow.
I rarely drink during the week but tomorrow is likely going to be an exception. I have days off I can take and likely will be taking one Tuesday if I end up drinking to much. Not out of things going bad but just to get me through this madness.
whyamihere
Banned
I'm glad we went out on a somewhat positive note with those YouGov polls, though.
RustyNails
Member
That's good imo. Sets up higher expectations for Trump.
TumblingHippo
Member
Pretty much I just want this election to be over so I know whether or not I should continue to pretend to be in the closet or feel like maybe it's not so crucial to stay in it.
I don't see a lot of mystery in the polls being narrower this weekend. Hillary's been lff the trail a bit and the NC protest and NCY bombs probably rattled some voters.
And overall, I think most voters still haven't paid attention to the election outside of Hillary's pneumonia recently. My brother's 24 year-old GF just asked me "doesn't Hillary have pneumonia?"
And overall, I think most voters still haven't paid attention to the election outside of Hillary's pneumonia recently. My brother's 24 year-old GF just asked me "doesn't Hillary have pneumonia?"
After 15+ months, I am certainly a bit anxious and worse for wear. I won't ever forget the rapists, drug dealer and murderers speech even though Trump directed them at Mexicans because in the end he's targeting each and every immigrant anyway. I can admit I've developed an unhealthy hatred of the man. But you know, I'm also very confident, having rewatched Hillary's past debates that tomorrow will go well enough and that everything will be okay in the end.
It's a numbing feeling to be worried about one's admittedly shaky future, but I still am also very optimistic, and it's been really great being a part of poligaf for a over a year now.
It's a numbing feeling to be worried about one's admittedly shaky future, but I still am also very optimistic, and it's been really great being a part of poligaf for a over a year now.
That things like this have any bearing on the polls is truly beyond me.
"Who would you vote for as president of the United States?"
"Well, I was leaning Hillary, but I haven't seen her in a couple days, so I guess Trump now."
Like, what the fuck? Who are these people that are jumping ship between one or the other based on how often they see them on a weekly basis?
ItWasMeantToBe19
Banned
Why is "people being driven to vote for Trump by PC police" a take that gets respected for even a second.
Millennials and the college educated and college professors (the only people that could possibly be exposed to college political correctness) HATE Trump. He even loses young white people and white people with degrees.
Millennials and the college educated and college professors (the only people that could possibly be exposed to college political correctness) HATE Trump. He even loses young white people and white people with degrees.
disastermouse
Banned
Does Primary voting enthusiasm track with general election enthusiasm? Everything I'm hearing is that Trump's voters are more enthusiastic for the general.
Hillary's messaging baffles me. Mark Cuban saying that Trump's not really wealthy will have no effect on the people voting for him. There's that weird psychological tendency for people to hold more firmly to their original position the more evidence mounts up that their position is wrong.
There is plenty of ammo for Hillary to hurl back at Trump. I honestly think she will crush him. I only worry about the media and how they portray the results.
Enthusiasm could be a factor but Cruz won states Trump was waaaaay ahead in (polling wise). All thanks to a good ground game.
The problem I see with Trump is he refuses to be restrained by reality or credibility, and if the moderator goes all-in on not fact checking, it's just going to be Trump making shit up every time he gets to speak, Clinton calling him a liar, and him saying nuh-uh where are your emails?
If she can back him in to a corner, I think she wins, but if he spends the entire time just bullshitting and shifting position it gets awkward because I think she will let reality dictate her responses which puts her at a disadvantage. She's already got 'trust' issues, while Trump's base will let him say anything because he doesn't mean it, just wants to get elected.
I'm hoping his ego pushes him to self-destruct, but at this point I have no idea what to expect because I feel like the entire debate setup relies on a baseline level of respect for the process Trump actively refuses to have.
Enough to overcome a 10 point deficit? I doubt that unless Trump collapses.
Spiritreaver
Member
Thanks
DataStream
Member
Most people watching these debates have not seen him speak at length without a promoter. His completely unfollowable steam of consciousness is going to turn people off.
I highly doubt trump is leading by 10 points right now in ME-2. More like 2-7 points. If hilary's lead in national polls start to expand again I expect that demographic to carry her enough to win that congressional district.
whyamihere
Banned
Also guys Hillary's literally been waiting her entire life to debate a Republican presidential candidate. I'm not worried about her.
I told you this!
I told you this!
You reminded me about it.
Not to mention Clinton is actually a lawyer and orange turd is an ignorant incomprehensible idiot. But sadly the debate will not focus on substance but headlining two liners.
I have two concerns for Trump in the debate(s):
1. He manages to lie and lie, and uses vagueries without anyone effectively calling him out on it and shutting him down.
2. His team will have prepared him to have a few curveballs at least, like actually being able to describe something resembling a couple specific policies. All he would need for his target audience is for them to sound sufficiently plausible and functional on a surface level. People already considering voting for him could hear these things, and be pleased by him sounding more moderate, and feel more confident that he's not so bad after all.
Trump's resurgence has all been about getting people to forget about how absolutely terrible he is, so I feel like all he has to do going in is not say something even R-inclined moderates would have to find disgustingly offensive, and throw out a few policy-sounding things. The pseudo-policies could have little to no basis in reality and have deep flaws just below the surface, but people won't pay much attention to that if it requires going past surface level thinking. Hell, Trump could even say things he has no intention of ever passing, and it would fit right into his established behaviour.
1. He manages to lie and lie, and uses vagueries without anyone effectively calling him out on it and shutting him down.
2. His team will have prepared him to have a few curveballs at least, like actually being able to describe something resembling a couple specific policies. All he would need for his target audience is for them to sound sufficiently plausible and functional on a surface level. People already considering voting for him could hear these things, and be pleased by him sounding more moderate, and feel more confident that he's not so bad after all.
Trump's resurgence has all been about getting people to forget about how absolutely terrible he is, so I feel like all he has to do going in is not say something even R-inclined moderates would have to find disgustingly offensive, and throw out a few policy-sounding things. The pseudo-policies could have little to no basis in reality and have deep flaws just below the surface, but people won't pay much attention to that if it requires going past surface level thinking. Hell, Trump could even say things he has no intention of ever passing, and it would fit right into his established behaviour.
AntraxSuicide
Banned
Yeah, the CiC forum thing was a disaster for him, and Hillary was basically just rehashing the email stuff again.
My only issue with it is covered by Technomancer's (I think?) question a few pages ago: What's the point in getting journalists like AC to moderate these things if the moderator is just reading a list of pre-written questions? Kim Kardashian could do that too. A fourth grader could do that.
I don't see why you need someone with knowledge of politics to moderate these things if you aren't going to use them for anything other than a text-to-voice service. Put an electronic answering machine on it if that's the plan.
Spoiled Milk
Banned
I have zero doubt in my mind that Trump's debate prep, aside from the hours spent housebreaking him, has been spent teaching him just enough on policy to be either technically correct or sound correct but only if you're barely paying attention (which I'm sure applies to just about everyone watching). Glib answers to every policy question, zero elaboration if pressed. Looking like he has some idea of what he's talking about is about as curvy as his pitches are going to get because they can't possibly teach him the policy he needs to know to go beyond that. His responses will have zero nuance, and I suspect we'll see him basically grinding along on his verbal crutches ("It's gonna be good / great", "believe me") like training wheels the whole night. Very few "gotcha" moments based on fact, plenty of them based on appeals to the audience or the lowest common denominator.
Like we'd said many times, all he has to do is not call her a bitch and he'll be seen as presidential. If he acts like he did in the primary? I don't see how it doesn't explode in his face. But there's no way he gets up there and gives any answer that isn't 90% bullshit.
I'm not sure he can keep all that straight for 90 minutes. He's got the attention span of a dog that just saw a squirrel.
I know. Truly horrifying, isn't it?
Well, he just has to bear it through 20-25 minutes and then he can let loose. But then his horrible personality would probably stand out.
Not really, there's no breaks. This is the show, if he lets lose after half an hour that's going to be the story.
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