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PoliGAF 2016 |OT11| Well this is exciting

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Z

Zukkoyaki

Member
The best part is that they're going to continue to yell TRENDS while ignoring the trend of several Florida polls shifting in favor of Clinton.
 
S

Sianos

Member
Boke1879 said:
IF a subdued Trump shows up like that one debate in the primaries. I can see him getting rocked with shit like him being uninterested, not wanting to be there, "where did his passion god?"

Trump will most likely be Trump and that's what most people are expecting. If he's subdued Hillary still beats him on substance.
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And if subdued Trump shows up but overheats and goes buck wild before the end of the debate there will not only be juxtaposition between him and Hillary, but since the tone will begin as being more subdued Trump's bombast will not be normalized from the start and will come across as more extreme.
 
N

NeoXChaos

Member
Philip Bump ‏@pbump 26m26 minutes ago Manhattan, NY
In 2012, young white voters voted 30 points more GOP than young voters, but only 13 points more Dem than whites.
Click to expand...

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news...a-lot-more-like-whites-than-like-millennials/

CtSvu7YWcAkPFIj.jpg
 
I

Ignatz Mouse

Banned
Plinko said:
I don't see many people arguing Hillary will be "phased" by Trump. I think the far greater worry is that Trump doesn't drool all over himself and the media says he "outperformed" her at the debate.
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That won't matter. Trump doing 'okay' will not sway undecideds. Clinton not being horrible will.

The bar is actually pretty low for both of them, and the media slant won't change that.
 
C

Cybit

FGC Waterboy
Am I right to assume the Selzer poll is the one that dropped her average so harshly?

Funny enough both Wang and Silver think the election being now would be a complete crapshoot; Wang is just assuming there will be regression to the mean when it comes to voters, while Silver's not assuming anything one way or the other. That said, if recent history is any guide, the Selzer poll should be a legitimate point of concern - her reputation has generally been made because when her results have gone against the grain, they have been correct.

I want my podcast showdown post election with Wang / Cohn / Silver all talking about the election and models. GIVE IT TO ME.
 
N

NYCmetsfan

Banned
balladofwindfishes said:
Reminder that pretty much the most sexist industry that exists, technology, is dominated and controlled pretty much exclusively by millennials.

Millennials are not really all that into women's rights, despite wanting to believe they are. I'd even guess that younger millennials are more sexist than the generation before them, based on what I've seen.
Click to expand...

I don't really see much evidence there is a groundshift in movements towards racial or gender justice, at least anecdotally

Most of the movement is basically more minorities and women finally speaking out. Not a movement of whites or men towards being more "woke".

Men of my age will trout out their feminist stances on facebook but over drinks will rant about "sluts" and about their conquests or how someone got a promotion they "didn't deserve"
 
S

Slayven

Member
balladofwindfishes said:
Reminder that pretty much the most sexist industry that exists, technology, is dominated and controlled pretty much exclusively by millennials.

Millennials are not really all that into women's rights, despite wanting to believe they are. I'd even guess that younger millennials are more sexist than the generation before them, based on what I've seen.
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I would put money on them being all the 'ists more than the previous generation.
 
B

balladofwindfishes

Member
Slayven said:
I would put money on them being all the 'ists more than the previous generation.
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Things got pretty disgusting during the primaries when they started using racist dog whistles.

"Southern Democrats don't matter" was probably the lowest I had seen so called "liberals" get, but then to see Bernie share the sentiment that Southern Democrats don't really matter. I don't think he did it out of racism, but yea, that was some pretty embarrassing times for so called "liberals"
 
C

Cybit

FGC Waterboy
Aside: for everyone confused about how this Trump thing is happening

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/06/10/u...n-people-think-thats-good-news-for-trump.html

to quote Cohn: internalize this.

But for many experts in the field, these issues pale next to those facing the exit polls. For Bernard Fraga, a professor of political science at Indiana University, there is “no question that the exit poll is not as accurate.” He added, “It’s clearly much more reliable to look at the C.P.S. or even better to look at the voter file-based work.” Today, virtually all major campaign polling, voter targeting and election law litigation is conducted using voter file data.

The actual results also tend to imply that the census and Catalist figures make a lot more sense in many of the cases where the disagreements are greatest.

Take Ohio, where the exit polls show that the black share of the electorate increased by four percentage points to more than 15 percent of voters in 2012. If these figures are taken as precise, it would imply that nearly 250,000 more black voters turned out than in 2008, with the turnout reaching 88 percent of adult black citizens. There is no trace of this kind of surge in turnout in the actual result. The black turnout in Cleveland actually dropped — to 55 percent of adult citizens.

This type of story repeats itself across the battlegrounds. It also plays out with age, where the exit polls imply that youth turnout was higher than turnout among seniors; with education, where the exit polls show that more college graduates voted than actually live in America; or Hispanics, where the exit polls show that white and Hispanic turnout was nearly equal, despite decades of evidence to the contrary. You can see more of this data here.
Click to expand...
 
V

VendettaRed07

Member
Can we get one Hillary ad on TV, and I mean one, that at least mentions her accomplishments instead of just going all out on Trump.

She needs something like this.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oO2hJfPj4-8

A jab at Trump at the beginning, say he isn't ready or qualified, then roll over what she's done/what she wants to do, in a short minute long ad.

Not that hard. She is going to negative.
 
N

NeoXChaos

Member
According to recent national surveys, Mrs. Clinton is faring far worse among white voters without a degree than Mr. Obama was four years ago. It has put her behind in Ohio, the anchor of Mr. Obama’s Midwestern firewall, as well as in Iowa and Maine’s Second Congressional District.

Who are they? They’re the voters who were the focus of pre-election coverage in 2012. They didn’t love Mr. Obama, but they tended to vote for him because they thought he looked out for the middle class. They believed that Mitt Romney was a plutocrat who outsourced jobs and would favor the rich over ordinary Americans.

For the Northern white working-class voters who helped give Mr. Obama his four-point win, the 2016 election is sort of a strange reversal of 2012. This time, it’s the Republican businessman who has positioned himself as the candidate fighting for ordinary Americans. He has adopted positions with real appeal to working-class Democratic-leaners, whether on trade, immigration or the social safety net. Mrs. Clinton, on the other hand, is the one being caricatured as Mr. Romney was: as corrupt and bought by special interest and corporations.

So far, Mr. Trump’s losses among well-educated suburban G.O.P. voters have roughly canceled out Mrs. Clinton’s losses among less educated Democrats. But Mrs. Clinton hasn’t locked down their support, just as Mr. Trump hasn’t locked down white working-class Democrats.
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http://www.nytimes.com/2016/09/27/u...ackage-region&region=top-news&WT.nav=top-news
 
I

IggyChooChoo

Member
NYCmetsfan said:
I don't really see much evidence there is a groundshift in movements towards racial or gender justice, at least anecdotally

Most of the movement is basically more minorities and women finally speaking out. Not a movement of whites or men towards being more "woke".

Men of my age will trout out their feminist stances on facebook but over drinks will rant about "sluts" and about their conquests or how someone got a promotion they "didn't deserve"
Click to expand...

My dad literally says women's rights are his number one issue, but doesn't want to vote for Hillary because of her voice. I really flipped out on him for that, given he was a big Bernie supporter, and Bernie's voice was not exactly mellifluous. I have no idea if he's going to vote or not this fall. Very frustrating conversation.
 
B

Boke1879

Member
VendettaRed07 said:
Can we get one Hillary ad on TV, and I mean one, that at least mentions her accomplishments instead of just going all out on Trump.

She needs something like this.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oO2hJfPj4-8

A jab at Trump at the beginning, say he isn't ready or qualified, then roll over what she's done/what she wants to do, in a short minute long ad.

Not that hard. She is going to negative.
Click to expand...

Again she really isn't. She's had plenty of positive ads the last couple of weeks, and publicly her policy messaging has been very positive. We just tend to focus on the negative far too much.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oIP6pCumPkg
 
P

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
Y2Kev said:
I actually don't agree with this. Trump went largely ignored for most of the primary until South Carolina. In that second to last debate, Rubio and Cruz started name checking each other so they could both go after trump. And they DID get him, on trump university especially. Rubio then sunk himself by going into the gutter.
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Perhaps--I remember Trump almost always having spoken the most (or near the top), though. I remember him going after Jeb pretty hard.

Joe Shlabotnik said:
He generally spoke for 20-25 minutes across three hours.
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Right--I wasn't arguing about time. These will be much longer. I think he's more likely to get bored/tired than out of control, though.

RustyNails said:
I mean, did you watch those debates? Do you think taking a shit on Rosie O' Donnell will work tonight? Or talking about the size of his dick? Trump lost all those debates on substance, but since RNC debates are never about substance and more about bashing Obama/Hillary, he came out alright.
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No, I don't think that will work, but I also think his team is talented enough to let him know how to get through. Whether he does it or not is a different story, but I don't think it is out of the question to think he'll have changed some things since the primary.
 
R

Revolver

Member
My wife has to work tonight so I'm watching the debate solo. I shouldn't be nervous but I can't help it. This election means so much for the country and the world but I can't help but think of what Hillary means on a personal level to the women in my life. My young nieces see her as an inspiration and my wife has been talking about there being a woman president someday for as long as I've known her. It's a truly historic moment in time.
 
P

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
NeoXChaos said:
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/09/27/u...ackage-region&region=top-news&WT.nav=top-news
Click to expand...

Who are they? They’re the voters who were the focus of pre-election coverage in 2012. They didn’t love Mr. Obama, but they tended to vote for him because they thought he looked out for the middle class. They believed that Mitt Romney was a plutocrat who outsourced jobs and would favor the rich over ordinary Americans.
Click to expand...

Boom. Was just talking about this on here this morning. This is how you reach white, uneducated voters. Money talks. Hillary hasn't hit on this area anywhere near enough. Trump absolutely does not look out for the middle class and has absolutely zero evidence of ever doing so. Hillary needs to hit him hard and repeatedly on this.
 
E

Ecotic

Member
VendettaRed07 said:
Can we get one Hillary ad on TV, and I mean one, that at least mentions her accomplishments instead of just going all out on Trump.

She needs something like this.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oO2hJfPj4-8

A jab at Trump at the beginning, say he isn't ready or qualified, then roll over what she's done/what she wants to do, in a short minute long ad.

Not that hard. She is going to negative.
Click to expand...

Yeah, and people have been pointing this out for a month now that she has to sell herself on the airwaves and she never does. Every new ad is a 30-second take down of Trump that has long since provided diminishing returns. It's becoming maddening.
 
H

HylianTom

Banned
Emarv said:
I firmly believe that this election will be discussed in Gender Studies classes for years.
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One thing I'm looking for in the polls after this debate is what happens to the gender gap. Earlier in the cycle, I spoke of the female vote becoming "activated." Tonight is one of those big, red-letter events.
 
P

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
Uh oh--Nate Silver coming after PoliGAF:
Nate Silver ‏@NateSilver538 10m10 minutes ago

1. Unskewing
2. Anger
3. "Hillary's internals must have her way ahead"
4. Depression
5. Acceptance
Click to expand...
 
P

PBY

Banned
Just reading through some of responses to me thinking Trump will be lowkey tonight.

To be clear - I'm not worried about this. I think he'll be in full on low-power mode, like he was in the final debate (he was actually fairly restrained then, and super boring). Which is whatever, Hill will do fine against that.

edit: Also to be clear - Nate Silver is best Nate.
 
B

BenjaminBirdie

Banned
PBY said:
Just reading through some of responses to me thinking Trump will be lowkey tonight.

To be clear - I'm not worried about this. I think he'll be in full on low-power mode, like he was in the final debate (he was actually fairly restrained then, and super boring). Which is whatever, Hill will do fine against that.

edit: Also to be clear - Nate Silver is best Nate.
Click to expand...

I think Trump will be Loki tonight, myself.
 
I

ItWasMeantToBe19

Banned
I am interested in knowing if a trend-seeking poll aggregator is good or not.

It seems hard to detect real trends in a certain poll when that poll is a statistical object with limited observations and a fairly high variance. You can easily have a situation where Hillary is +3 in reality over both of two weeks and you have a poll that is Hillary+6 one week and Trump+0 next week, it could just be random errors.
 
W

whyamihere

Banned
Just to go over this past 12 hours

Hillary +4 nationally (YouGov)
Hillary +7 in Minnesota
Trump +2 nationally (A+ pollster)
Hillary + 1 in North Carolina (voter file poll)
Hillary +2 in Florida
Hillary +4 nationally (A+ pollster)
 
D

DontBeThatGuy

Member
I feel like that head to head will become more of a reality the closer we get to November, and people stop with this undecided/third-party shit with the reality of the situation looming over all of us.

These debates are important, that's for damn sure.
 
G

GregLombardi

Member
whyamihere said:
Just to go over this past 12 hours

Hillary +4 nationally (YouGov)
Hillary +7 in Minnesota
Trump +2 nationally (A+ pollster)
Hillary + 1 in North Carolina (voter file poll)
Hillary +2 in Florida
Hillary +4 nationally (A+ pollster)
Click to expand...

If these 2 are the best pollsters, how does one reconcile the different result? Methodology? Turnout?
 
B

balladofwindfishes

Member
I think it's also kind of bad to look for trends in polls that are almost two months apart.

A poll taken in early August versus on in late September. We have no idea what that poll shows in the middle. Maybe it's a steady decline? Maybe it was a steeper decline, but it's now trending back up?

We just don't know what the actual line is between those two points of data, and they're so far apart in time, assigning 7 points of weight to such a thing is just ridiculous.
 
W

whyamihere

Banned
Also, apparently in the mock debate, the aide playing Trump started the debate by congratulating Hillary on being the first woman nominee ever of a major party.
 
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