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PoliGAF 2016 |OT11| Well this is exciting

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N

newshinycd

Member
Like I said in the OT thread, Trump won't have his precious teleprompter to save him to night. Nor will he have a crowd to rile up, nor a bunch of candidates on stage to pit against each other.

Think back to the way Trump acted at the primary debates. Hell, think back to the Presidential forum given how shitty that was. It'd be a damn miracle if he somehow exerted complete self control for the full 90 minutes while sharing the stage with
Crooked
Hillary.
 
B

Black Mamba

Member
Stop panicking over these polls.

Until Trump starts to hit 45%+ consistently in national polls (where he leads) or swing state polls (besides Iowa and Ohio, of course), then there's no real need to get too worried.

I have and continue maintain that polling this election period is weird and that these 3rd party voters and undecideds are soft Hillary supporters who in states that matter will do what is necessary.

Hillary's numbers have bounced around a lot the last couple months but Trump's has been very stable. This indicates he's not ahead or close to it, IMO.


That said, this debate tonight is very important. It could potentially seal it for Hillary and depress Trump supporters. Regardless, my goal for this election was the GOP to become depressed and now turn out. With the current numbers, this isn't going to happen and tonight is the biggest chance to bring us to the scenario i want.
 
S

Sianos

Member
Cybit said:
IMO, as long as folks think Clinton has this in the bag, I think the Johnson / Stein protest vote will be high (relatively speaking). It's why I'm not too torn up about BestNate telling people the election is currently pretty much dead even - might get some of the protest voters off of their duffs.
Click to expand...

MGS3_SnakeEater-e1427138810315.jpg
Click to expand...

Pictured: fallen hero and secret double agent Bad Nate facing off against Nate Cohn

We will ride this yellow wave to victory!
 
Z

Zukkoyaki

Member
I think we need to stop panicking over CNN polls. We do this every time they release some. Their polls have consistently been kinder to Trump and against the current since July. Maybe we should factor that into our expectations whenever they release new ones.
 
J

Joeytj

Banned
whyamihere said:
Merideth College poll, NC

Hillary: 38
Trump: 35

(lol 23% undecided)
Click to expand...

Geezus.

Could all these polls point to a pre-debate lul, with people saying they're undecided just because they know there's a debate coming up and they aren't supposed to be decided yet?

Still, good to see Trump's support also collapsing.
 
B

Black Mamba

Member
whyamihere said:
Merideth College poll, NC

Hillary: 38
Trump: 35

(lol 23% undecided)
Click to expand...

THIS is what I mean. These polls make no sense; i do not buy that there are so many 3rd party and undecideds.

The polling is weird. You have Trump never go above 43% in a Colorado poll, yet Hilary goes from as low as 36 to as high as 49.

This makes no sense other than polling is getting harder. At least this far in advance.
 
D

disastermouse

Banned
Ignatz Mouse said:
So the prevailing thought is that:

1) The bar is set very low for Trump

and

2) Debates can really change a race


These two things are true!

However, they don't add up to a serious concern. While the bar is low for Donald for the general press reaction, that doesn't equate to a poll bounce even if he's viewed as the winner. Among undecideds, he still has to prove he's better than Clinton and not just "not as bad as people think." A lot of undecided voters will be watching. And for that block, the bar for Clinton is pretty low too. All she has to do is come off as relatable and more of a President than Trump-- and that's not going to be hard for her.

So while the press may say that Trump had a better night because he managed to not screw up, a lot of undecided voters whose opinions of Clinton are based on vague notions of half-baked scandals are going to get a much better picture of her tonight.

The debates won't matter much from the enthusiasm angle, but they're going to sway a lot of undecideds who are reliable voters, who have been waiting for this and ignoring the political news to date. And those voters are going to Clinton.



/pundit
Click to expand...
I think you're underestimating how many people are looking for a defensible excuse to vote for Trump.

Hillary needs more than a defensible excuse. If you take off your Hillary-tinted sunglasses for even a moment, it should be obvious as to why this is. Firstly, in a time of increasing uncertainty reigned over by a president of her party, there needs to be a satisfying answer as to why things aren't better. It's difficult to prove that Obama prevented things from being worse because things didn't get worse. So the evidence of this supposedly worse outcome quite literally doesn't exist. It has to be taken as a matter of faith in a partisan political environment primed to see all of Obama's actions with a jaundiced eye.

Secondly, for Hillary to make the case that she'll bring a better outcome, she has to argue that Obama has failed to deliver the full extent of the implicit promise of his presidency. A major barrier to this is that Obama has high approval from exactly the demographic she most needs to energize, a demographic that wouldn't be particularly receptive to that message.
 
P

PBY

Banned
disastermouse said:
I think you're underestimating how many people are looking for a defensible excuse to vote for Trump.

Hillary needs more than a defensible excuse. If you take off your Hillary-tinted sunglasses for even a moment, it should be obvious as to why this is. Firstly, in a time of increasing uncertainty reigned over by a president of her party, there needs to be a satisfying answer as to why things aren't better. It's difficult to prove that Obama prevented things from being worse because things didn't get worse. So the evidence of this supposedly worse outcome quite literally doesn't exist. It has to be taken as a matter of faith in a partisan political environment primed to see all of Obama's actions with a jaundiced eye.

Secondly, for Hillary to make the case that she'll bring a better outcome, she has to argue that Obama has failed to deliver the full extent of the implicit promise of his presidency. A major barrier to this is that Obama has high approval from exactly the demographic she most needs to energize, a demographic that wouldn't be particularly receptive to that message.
Click to expand...

The bolded is why a year like this is historically good for the challenger party.

Both parties picked candidates people hate though, so here we are.
 
D

Diablos

Member
Johnson is so freaking high in VA. These third party candidates are really annoying and they can't do anything but potentially spoil the election. Gets on my nerves. Look at the drop in Hillary's lead when you compare it to H2H in VA. Crazy. There's no guarantee liberal minded supporters will jump on the Hillary bandwagon at the last second. Her unfavorable/trustworthiness numbers are just atrocious. I think this keeps people more committed to Johnson or in more rare instances, Stein, if they've shown any kind of inclination to support them.

Polling this cycle is all over the place and it's kind of amazing no one can figure it out.
 
K

Kangi

Member
538's now-cast has Trump winning now.

But their map of blue and red states suggest Hillary hitting 272.

But she doesn't because (trendlines??).

I don't understand but also I don't think I care to.
 
J

Joeytj

Banned
Kangi said:
538's now-cast has Trump winning now.

But their map of blue and red states suggest Hillary hitting 272.

But she doesn't because (trendlines??).

I don't understand but also I don't think I care to.
Click to expand...

It's not the first time. They had Trump winning right before the conventions too.

It's clear that Trump manages to scrape a lead or tie when Hillary's most absent from the campaign, like she's been since the conventions and in the last couple of days.

But from here on out, there's going to be a debate almost every week and Dems out in full force.
 
D

Deleted member 231381

Unconfirmed Member
Kangi said:
538's now-cast has Trump winning now.

But their map of blue and red states suggest Hillary hitting 272.

But she doesn't because (trendlines??).

I don't understand but also I don't think I care to.
Click to expand...

Imagine you had a dice that rolls 1, 1, 1, 1, and 6. The most likely individual outcome is 1. The average outcome is 2. This is what Nate's map shows: the most likely individual outcome is Clinton hitting 272, however, if you averaged all the outcomes, Trump wins in slightly more.
 
I

Ignatz Mouse

Banned
disastermouse said:
I think you're underestimating how many people are looking for a defensible excuse to vote for Trump.

Hillary needs more than a defensible excuse. If you take off your Hillary-tinted sunglasses for even a moment, it should be obvious as to why this is. Firstly, in a time of increasing uncertainty reigned over by a president of her party, there needs to be a satisfying answer as to why things aren't better. It's difficult to prove that Obama prevented things from being worse because things didn't get worse. So the evidence of this supposedly worse outcome quite literally doesn't exist. It has to be taken as a matter of faith in a partisan political environment primed to see all of Obama's actions with a jaundiced eye.

Secondly, for Hillary to make the case that she'll bring a better outcome, she has to argue that Obama has failed to deliver the full extent of the implicit promise of his presidency. A major barrier to this is that Obama has high approval from exactly the demographic she most needs to energize, a demographic that wouldn't be particularly receptive to that message.
Click to expand...

I think everybody who was looking for an excuse to vote for Trump has already found it. The undecideds are really undecided, and even if Trump does "okay" Clinton will come out looking much, much better.

People undecided by this point aren't doing the better/worse calculus you suggest. They're relatively disengaged voters who are comparison shopping, or they are liberals/conservatives who haven't expressed their support. Clinton wins the former in almost any case, and in the latter case the debates don't matter at all.
 
B

balladofwindfishes

Member
Ignatz Mouse said:
I think everybody who was looking for an excuse to vote for Trump has already found it. The undecideds are really undecided, and even if Trump does "okay" Clinton will come out looking much, much better.

People undecided by this point aren't doing the better/worse calculus you suggest. They're relatively disengaged voters who are comparison shopping, or they are liberals/conservatives who haven't expressed their support. Clinton wins the former in almost any case, and in the latter case the debates don't matter at all.
Click to expand...

In some recent polling (don't remember the poll), undecideds generally like Obama and really hate Trump. They're her's for the taking.
 
C

Chezzymann

Member
NYCmetsfan said:
Never read moby dick?

I don't think the white whale metaphor works perfectly because its usually meaning something that you obsess over so much it hurts you
Click to expand...
I actually haven't lol

Had it in my hands once and then saw how long it was and went "nope"

I think it works if trump starts putting a lot of resources into it and then doesn't get it
 
W

whyamihere

Banned
Among RVs, Clinton would take an even bigger lead in that Monmouth poll:

Clinton 45 (+5)
Trump 40
Johnson 8
Stein 3

H2H
Clinton 49 (+6)
Trump 43
 
B

Black Mamba

Member
Crab said:
Imagine you had a dice that rolls 1, 1, 1, 1, and 6. The most likely individual outcome is 1. The average outcome is 2. This is what Nate's map shows: the most likely individual outcome is Clinton hitting 272, however, if you averaged all the outcomes, Trump wins in slightly more.
Click to expand...

Yeah, but this is because Silver's models give stupid percentages to safe states.

For instance, New Mexico is at 72% Hillary. In reality, it's 97%+

Even Illinois is just 92%. I hate this aspect of his model.


Honestly, all the safe states should be at the 99%+ range. Only Black Swan events should be considered (and yes, this is true for red states too).
 
N

NYCmetsfan

Banned
whyamihere said:
Among RVs, Clinton would take an even bigger lead in that Monmouth poll:

Clinton 45 (+5)
Trump 40
Johnson 8
Stein 3

H2H
Clinton 49 (+6)
Trump 43
Click to expand...

The big unknown this cycle is turn out. That's what's driving these wild polls.

That's why I'm more trusting of internals becuase she knows who she needs and has tons of metrics on it. Trump? He's just hoping white working class turn out.
 
B

Black Mamba

Member
NYCmetsfan said:
The big unknown this cycle is turn out. That's what's driving these wild polls.

That's why I'm more trusting of internals becuase she knows who she needs and has tons of metrics on it. Trump? He's just hoping white working class turn out.
Click to expand...

Obama Coalition turns out = Hillary victory.

It comes down to that. I'm repeating myself, of course.
 
A

avaya

Member
I was not at all legit shook so far but the Selzer poll has me getting worried.

The sky high percentage of non-college educated white vote he is getting is terrifying when coupled with lukewarm enthusiasm from the Dem base.

She should have just doubled down on the Obama coalition rather than chase for Republican moderates.
 
M

mo60

Member
avaya said:
I was not at all legit shook so far but the Selzer poll has me getting worried.

The sky high percentage of non-college educated white vote he is getting is terrifying when coupled with lukewarm enthusiasm from the Dem base.

She should have just doubled down on the Obama coalition rather than chase for Republican moderates.
Click to expand...

He's not going to beat hilary by 60 points with that demographic. They don't love him that much to make him win them by that much.
 
C

Cybit

FGC Waterboy
Black Mamba said:
Stop panicking over these polls.

Until Trump starts to hit 45%+ consistently in national polls (where he leads) or swing state polls (besides Iowa and Ohio, of course), then there's no real need to get too worried.

I have and continue maintain that polling this election period is weird and that these 3rd party voters and undecideds are soft Hillary supporters who in states that matter will do what is necessary.

Hillary's numbers have bounced around a lot the last couple months but Trump's has been very stable. This indicates he's not ahead or close to it, IMO.


That said, this debate tonight is very important. It could potentially seal it for Hillary and depress Trump supporters. Regardless, my goal for this election was the GOP to become depressed and now turn out. With the current numbers, this isn't going to happen and tonight is the biggest chance to bring us to the scenario i want.
Click to expand...

I think it's relatively even on a national scale - just straight average of the polls is like 43/40 - but Trump still seems to be hitting that ceiling nationally of 40%. It seems pretty apparent that this election is going to come down to turnout - and that is Clinton's goal at the debate IMO. Make people want to vote for her rather than vote against Trump. I think Clinton is in a strong position going into this debate, as it seems if any of the other factors break for her, she should be in the clear.

Also Mamba sorry about not getting back to you about the polling discussion we were having earlier. I would love to see a modified version of the 538 model where they adjust for house effects and LV for a given poll, but then use all of the polls for a given state to determine the trend line (and maybe weigh a given poll 75% of the effect from the change between that same poll before and earlier, and 25% of the weight from the overall trend of all the polls).

Would be curious to see whether the additional data ends up creating a wash out effect or whether it just lowers the magnitude of said trend effect.
 
B

BenjaminBirdie

Banned
ItWasMeantToBe19 said:
So she's going to bomb the first debate and then end Trump's career in the last two?

edit:

I am Gary Johnson bad at spelling.
Click to expand...

I got a dumb husband named Bubba Bill
Who shoots himself in the leg with his own....Bill
I got called to congress like five or six times
And I'm still standing here screaming "Fuck the world!"
Don't ever try to judge me, dude
You don't know what the fuck I've been through
But I know something about you
You got your money from your pops, that's inheritance
What's the matter, dog, you embarrassed?
This guy's a gangster? His real name's Donald
And Donald lives at home with seven gold eagles
And Donald has three real good marriages
This guy don't wanna battle, he shook
‘Cause ain't no such things as halfway crooks
He's scared to death, he's scared to look in his fucking cue cards; fuck Breibart!
Fuck the beat, I'll go a cappella
Fuck a Duke, fuck a Lee, fuck a Skittle; fuck everybody!
Fuck y'all if you doubt me!
I use email, I say it proudly
And fuck this debate, I don't wanna win, I'm outtie
Here, tell these people something they don't know about me
 
I

ItWasMeantToBe19

Banned
Few people in America care about abortion or the Supreme Court, no Trump supporter cares about climate change:

FT_16.08.11_debateTopics.png


What the fuck, how is "budget deficit" still treated as serious.
 
C

ctothej

Member
There's one thing Clinton has going for her this debate, which is that tons of swing voters/millenials/Clinton skeptics haven't actually watched her in action this election. They've watched Trump for the entertainment factor, they've watched videos of Clinton "lying," or read think pieces about how corrupt she is, but they didn't watch her primary debates and speeches. In that sense, the bar for her is also set really low. I'm expecting a lot of my friends (clinton-hating bernie fans) to be impressed by her tonight.
 
N

nature boy

Member
Galifianakis won't have ‘mentally challenged’ Trump on ‘Between Two Ferns’


"No. That doesn’t interest me. Doing it the other way doesn’t interest me," Galifianakis told the Los Angeles Times. "He’s the kind of guy who likes attention — bad attention or good attention. So you’re dealing with a psychosis there that’s a little weird."
"The Hangover" star didn't pull any punches talking about his feelings regarding the billionaire.

"I wouldn’t have somebody on that’s so mentally challenged. And you can print that."
Click to expand...
 
B

balladofwindfishes

Member
Don't early voter records show there's no surge at all of white voters?

So if there's a massive wave of white people just lining up to vote for Trump... why aren't they manifesting in early voting?
 
N

NeoXChaos

Member
Michael Cohen ‏@speechboy71 2h2 hours ago
Michael Cohen Retweeted Suzanne Munshower
And I think that Trump will actively seek to de-legitimize her win. So she'll enter office, unpopular and mistrusted by half the country.

Michael Cohen ‏@speechboy71 2h2 hours ago
Michael Cohen Retweeted Suzanne Munshower
And I'm not sure she's a good enough politician to overcome that level of mistrust. I think she will have a very difficult first term ...

Michael Cohen ‏@speechboy71 2h2 hours ago
Michael Cohen Retweeted Suzanne Munshower
... and would be an underdog to win re-election
Click to expand...

Michael Cohen ‏@speechboy71 2h2 hours ago
Michael Cohen Retweeted Suzanne Munshower
... which is a long way of saying that as bad as this campaign has been, I can easily see US politics getting worse
Click to expand...
.
 
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