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[Sianos]

Alternative take: people tend to like Hillary a lot more when they genuinely listen to what she has to say. Remember how after the eleven hour Benghazi hearing everyone briefly came together and even the busters of the time conceded that they felt better about voting for her in the event Bernie lost.

To those not as politically educated, the bar is set pretty low for Hillary as well. She just has to not be the right wing caricature to exceed expectations from the uneducated.

 

[Officerrob]

How important is tonight's debate?

On a scale of 1-10, about an 11

 

[Boke1879]

Phil Elliott
@Philip_Elliott
RNC chair @Reince says of Trump's lack of traditional debate prep: “He’s been through 14 season finales."

lol

 

[Anoregon]

How important is tonight's debate?

Less important than the impending NATEBOWL

 

[Cybit]

If these 2 are the best pollsters, how does one reconcile the different result? Methodology? Turnout?

Yes to both; plus what they think the actual voter turnout will be. I get why Nate put so much weight (too much IMO, plus, if Clinton does well at the debates, the first set of polls after the first debate could swing the model to the extreme the other way) in Selzer; but man, that was a bit too much for me. Unless the Monmouth poll promptly cancels it out.

(Once again, the entire point of Selzer's high ranking is that the last several times her polls have gone against the grain, hindsight has proven her right. But this election is officially wishy-washy central)

 

[B-Dubs]

If these 2 are the best pollsters, how does one reconcile the different result? Methodology? Turnout?

That's going to happen no matter what. Two people could run the same poll, with the same methodology, and get slightly different results. That's why we use averages and statistical models instead of relying on individual polls.

 

[whyamihere]

lol

By that logic, no one is more ready for a presidential debate than Mariska Hargitay.

 

[metalslimer]

By that logic, no one is more ready for a presidential debate than Mariska Hargitay.

I'd vote for her SVU character over Trump anyway. She's seen some shit.

 

[BenjaminBirdie]

By that logic, no one is more ready for a presidential debate than Mariska Hargitay.

"WE HAVE TO GO BACK! TO WHEN AMERICA WAS GREAT!"

 

[Zukkoyaki]

Good Nate:

Gallup, otoh, shows Obama approval at 54-41 and Clinton favorables at their best in weeks https://t.co/tEvzVkequE

 

[VendettaRed07]

How important is tonight's debate?

Only the future of everything depends on it.

No pressure.

 

[whyamihere]

Virginia poll (CNU)

Clinton 39%
Trump 33%
Johnson 15%
Stein 3%
McMullin 3%

2-WAY

Clinton 48%
Trump 38%

https://localtvwtkr.files.wordpress.com/2016/09/sept-26-2016-report-final.pdf

 

[VendettaRed07]

Also, when is the undercard debate? Can't find anything on it.

 

[BenjaminBirdie]

Virginia poll (CNU)

Clinton 39%
Trump 33%
Johnson 15%
Stein 3%
McMullin 3%

2-WAY

Clinton 48%
Trump 38%

https://localtvwtkr.files.wordpress.com/2016/09/sept-26-2016-report-final.pdf

>four hour spit take<

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

I'm glad that we might invade Iran and drop nuclear weapons on Aleppo and Raqqa because Hillary is bad with emails.

 

[Zukkoyaki]

Yes, this is sarcasm; please stop riding every little bump of the poller coaster like it's a huge shift. It's noise https://t.co/W0ESxGeKbL

Nate Cohn is the real MVP

 

[Gotchaye]

Also, when is the undercard debate? Can't find anything on it.

If they said anything about it beforehand the police would know to show up to arrest Dr. Jill Stein.

 

[Chezzymann]

Apparently Pennsylvania is getting tighter? If trump got it that would be enough to push him over the edge with a little wiggle room. Clinton should really ramp up campaigning there.

 

[Roland_Gunner]

Virginia poll (CNU)

Clinton 39%
Trump 33%
Johnson 15%
Stein 3%
McMullin 3%


https://localtvwtkr.files.wordpress.com/2016/09/sept-26-2016-report-final.pdf

The speed at which Virginia has moved from lean R to more Democratic than Pennsylvania is pretty mindblowing.

 

[Iolo]

How important is tonight's debate?

Basically, the country is Steve Guttenberg, and tonight's debate decides whether his future is Short Circuit or The Day After.

 

[DontBeThatGuy]

Virginia poll (CNU)

Clinton 39%
Trump 33%
Johnson 15%
Stein 3%
McMullin 3%

2-WAY

Clinton 48%
Trump 38%

https://localtvwtkr.files.wordpress.com/2016/09/sept-26-2016-report-final.pdf

Ugh, Johnson is so fucking high.

 

[whyamihere]

Just to go over this past 12 hours

Hillary +4 nationally (YouGov)
Hillary +7 in Minnesota
Trump +2 nationally (A+ pollster)
Hillary + 1 in North Carolina (voter file poll)
Hillary +2 in Florida
Hillary +4 nationally (A+ pollster)
Hillary +6 in Virginia

Adding to this.

 

[Boke1879]

Ugh, Johnson is so fucking high.

Way too high. But I feel the debates and just generally going forward that changes.

 

[Zukkoyaki]

Ugh, Johnson is so fucking high.

Is that a pun?

 

[Ignatz Mouse]

Ugh, Johnson is so fucking high.

Double meaning...

 

[balladofwindfishes]

Apparently Pennsylvania is getting tighter? If trump got it that would be enough to push him over the edge with a little wiggle room. Clinton should really ramp up campaigning there.

.

 

[DontBeThatGuy]

Is that a pun?

No.

Spoiler

Yes.

 

[VendettaRed07]

Ugh, Johnson is so fucking high.

Considering how high the negatives are on both candidates, it's a miracle he isn't considerably higher.

A third party candidate if you look at both of their favorability numbers, should be out performing Ross Perot

 

[JHoNNy1OoO]

Ugh, Johnson is so fucking high.

There is no way it stays that high come election day.

 

[BlastProcessing]

https://twitter.com/nycsouthpaw/status/780407104695853056

sigh This stings more than watching Poligaf wet the bed en masse.

 

[Chezzymann]

.

I don't get it

 

[Cybit]

Way too high. But I feel the debates and just generally going forward that changes.

IMO, as long as folks think Clinton has this in the bag, I think the Johnson / Stein protest vote will be high (relatively speaking). It's why I'm not too torn up about BestNate telling people the election is currently pretty much dead even - might get some of the protest voters off of their duffs.

 

[kevin1025]

By that logic, no one is more ready for a presidential debate than Mariska Hargitay.

Stabler for VP!

 

[balladofwindfishes]

I don't get it

PA is the GOP white whale. It always looks so close for them to take it, and then they get crushed when people actually vote.

 

[Bronx-Man]

By that logic, no one is more ready for a presidential debate than Mariska Hargitay.

I'd vote for Benson/Stabler 2016.

 

[johnsmith]

Alternate metaphor for PA

 

[RustyNails]

lol

This jackhole is going to bomb tonight, and everything will be covered in cheeto dust. He is really unprepared. Obama was wrecked because he did not prepare for the 1st debate. This is a trainwreck waiting to happen from Trump, I'm sure of it more than ever.

 

[HylianTom]

This jackhole is going to bomb tonight, and everything will be covered in cheeto dust. He is really unprepared. Obama was wrecked because he did not prepare for the 1st debate. This is a trainwreck waiting to happen from Trump, I'm sure of it more than ever.

I feel pretty damn good, to be honest.

(Then again, it could be the whiskey in my liver at the moment.)

Spoiler

(Hey, it's after noon.)

 

[nature boy]

Virginia poll (CNU)

Clinton 39%
Trump 33%
Johnson 15%
Stein 3%
McMullin 3%

2-WAY

Clinton 48%
Trump 38%

https://localtvwtkr.files.wordpress.com/2016/09/sept-26-2016-report-final.pdf

reposting polls?

 

[whyamihere]

reposting polls?

I can barely keep up with this thread. I woke up this morning and it was literally on fire.

 

[Sianos]

At some point after the debate is over I want to make a thread about "don't read the comments".

It's good advice, because the comments usually are just a cesspool. But it feels like people are starting to forget that the comments that populate the cesspool are written by human beings who are articulating those comments and granting them form.

It's why people are shocked at the rise of Trump, because they just ignored "the comments" and the alt-right as a whole, just pretending they didn't exist or that they were all just kidding.

I mean, yeah: still don't read the comments. But let's remember that the comments still exist even when they are not being actively observed.

I'm a bit tired of hearing "look at this video of liberal kids with poor rhetorical skills! Incidentally, remember to always ignore the comments!"

 

[RustyNails]

I feel pretty damn good, to be honest.

(Then again, it could be the whiskey in my liver at the moment.)

Spoiler

(Hey, it's after noon.)

Unless Rinse Publis is underplaying expectations, which I dont see happening. He's not the sharpest tool in the shed.

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

At some point after the debate is over I want to make a thread about "don't read the comments".

It's good advice, because the comments usually are just a cesspool. But it feels like people are starting to forget that the comments that populate the cesspool are written by human beings who are articulating those comments and granting them form.

It's why people are shocked at the rise of Trump, because they just ignored "the comments" and the alt-right as a whole, just pretending they didn't exist or that they were all just kidding.

I mean, yeah: still don't read the comments. But let's remember that the comments still exist even when they are not being actively observed.

I'm a bit tired of hearing "look at this video of liberal kids with poor rhetorical skills! Incidentally, remember to always ignore the comments!"

This is a good point.

What's similar is pollsters going "Ignore PPP's troll questions!" When PPP finds that almost all Republicans think that Obama is a Kenyan Muslim or that they think New Jersey Muslims cheered on 9/11, people try to dismiss it away by claiming that it's bullshit or whatever. People are just shoving fingers in their ears and trying to ignore that most people do not care for liberalism and tons of people are 50% hate and conspiracy.

 

[Boke1879]

Unless Rinse Publis is underplaying expectations, which I dont see happening. He's not the sharpest tool in the shed.

That's the only thing he cold be doing is lowering expectations. But you don't respond with that bullshit.

 

[Cybit]

Unless Rinse Publis is underplaying expectations, which I dont see happening. He's not the sharpest tool in the shed.

This election has definitely shone a light on incompetent heads of the party - both Schulz and Preibus.

 

[Wilsongt]

The OT's response to the Hillary selfie photo is so cynical.

 

[Hobbestetrician]

I'd vote for Benson/Stabler 2016.

Fin and Munch in the Cabinet? Yes, please.

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

Steve King letting that Nazi flag fly:

@FraukePetry Wishing you successful vote. Cultural suicide by demographic transformation must end. @geertwilderspvv

https://twitter.com/SteveKingIA/status/777568225538088960

Look at Steve King continuing to pretend he wouldn't have been executed by fascists.

Tonight's biggest post #debate question: Inquiring American minds will want to know,
was Hillary on her meds or off her meds?

https://twitter.com/SteveKingIA/status/780444219097821184

 

[Anoregon]

Steve King letting that Nazi flag fly:



https://twitter.com/SteveKingIA/status/777568225538088960

Jesus, that's barely even a dog whistle for "white genocide" white supremacist shit.

 

[Wilsongt]

Steve King letting that Nazi flag fly:



https://twitter.com/SteveKingIA/status/777568225538088960

Look at Steve King continuing to pretend he wouldn't have been executed by fascists.


https://twitter.com/SteveKingIA/status/780444219097821184

Being properly evicerated in the subtweets I see.