this to me is the biggest one. sure it tightened, but next cycle we'll say "she was winning after labor day and then won the election. same as usual". Everything else about her winning is just filling air time.
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PoliGAF 2016 |OT11| Well this is exciting
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this to me is the biggest one. sure it tightened, but next cycle we'll say "she was winning after labor day and then won the election. same as usual". Everything else about her winning is just filling air time.
He went postal on Postal on his last podcast. I think critics saying his model is too reactive are getting to him.
whyamihere
Banned
I wonder if Sam Wang talked to Nate's biographer.
ItWasMeantToBe19
Banned
Ohio is rated as blue on538 because of the national polls.
User 463088
Banned
I don't think anyone is covering it.
Today in deplorable battles:
As yes, Notch the alt right bodhisattva and Cernovich the Nietzcheian ubermensch.
brianmcdoogle
Member
Nate likes big buts and his model don't lie.
Also, why again was his model showing trump winning back in end of July?
Mighty Chin
Banned
You can't predict Hillary having pneumonia.
Officerrob
Banned
It's a right wing twitter story at this point, and nothing more.
Not even Breitbart was willing to touch it.
I think the debate is make or break.
Yeah. She addressed the Bill comments and the debates. That's all i caught, though.
Do you know exactly what she said in reference to the Bill comments that weren't even bad?
Also if I was in the media I would remind EVERY Trump surrogate how many days it's been since he's given a press conference. Because God knows it was a big deal when she didnt'
Suikoguy
I whinny my fervor lowly, for his length is not as great as those of the Hylian war stallions
Considering how badly the media did with the email story, i'm not the least bit surprised she let that story go stale before doing press events.
It was the perfect shit storm.
1.) Media False Equivency and Both Sides bullshit
2.) Technology and Policy requiring nuance the Media does not do.
3.) An FBI Director out to help Republicans.
4.) Jumping to conclusions before the actual FBI report was released, helped along with the shit FBI Director.
NYCmetsfan
Banned
Привет, товарищ
Not exactly. I caught the tail end of it, but it sounded like "if you listen to it all in context, blah blah, there's a lot of work to be done still, yada yada". A reporter asked a quick followup and she just said "I think i've addressed it." She wasn't being curt or anything. Just didn't seem like a big deal to her. They moved on to the Sunday debate right after.
He was soooo pissy. It was pretty funny.
ugaboga232
Member
A bit quick on the snap GOP: https://gop.com/who-won-the-vice-presidential-debate/
Finale Fireworker
Member
This is too funny.
This day is like a clown car; you don't expect much, but more and more clowns keep walking out.
They're making it up and they still only gave him 2 top moments? Sad!
Lol they are already pushing propaganda before it even starts. What a bunch of desperate turds. It will be a bright day in human history once that bigoted and ignorant party ceases to exist.
shinra-bansho
Member
Trendlines!
I didn't catch all her presser but she was asked about the Julian Assange comment about droning the guy and she said she didn't recall making the comment and if she did it was just a joke and moved on. She went after Trump on his taxes and his PTSD comments.
How long has it been since Trump held a press conference? I can't seem to remember one since him asking Russia to hack Hillary.
How long has it been since Trump held a press conference? I can't seem to remember one since him asking Russia to hack Hillary.
ugaboga232
Member
If you click through the other articles, they have 4+ already up as placeholders on the debate
https://gop.com/10-things-voters-are-saying-about-the-debate/
https://gop.com/governor-mike-pences-top-5-moments-from-the-debate/
https://gop.com/its-clear-who-lost-the-vp-debate-hillary-clinton/
https://gop.com/10-things-voters-are-saying-about-the-debate/
https://gop.com/governor-mike-pences-top-5-moments-from-the-debate/
https://gop.com/its-clear-who-lost-the-vp-debate-hillary-clinton/
It's been 69 days I think
Hahahaha
I was gonna make a joke about Wikileaks, but their Twitter made it for me.
Plinko
Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
Xamtheking
Member
You guys missed the best one
https://gop.com/5-questions-tim-kaine-was-not-asked/
https://gop.com/5-questions-tim-kaine-was-not-asked/
Finale Fireworker
Member
Xamtheking
Member
old people who misspell "gap.com"
ugaboga232
Member
nature boy
Member
Good.
Plinko
Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
No joke, my favorite night of politics in the last decade. The Rubio self-destruction was close.
It's up there for me, too.
I have deep, abiding contempt for Paul Ryan, and seeing the GOP's wunderkind get rekt by Uncle Joe was incredibly, incredibly gratifying.
BlastProcessing
Member
Xamtheking
Member
Yes
Joe Biden came in and just sang country songs for an hour and a half
Plinko
Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
Fantastic. Keep it up with the imbecile gimmick, Gary.
I still wish Joe would have been the nominee. To see him win the presidency after all he has been through would have been absolutely amazing. Plus, watching him deconstruct Trump in a debate would have been glorious. Hillary did a great job, no doubt, but there's something different about Joe's demeanor when it happens.
So awesome.
I love the smell of incompetence at night.
I listened to 538's podcast where Silver is defending his model and it's just not addressing what strike me as the serious concerns people have. Now, probably he is getting bombarded with a lot of tweets making terrible criticisms, but you can't only address those. He characterizes his critics as not believing that the polls have moved, but the issue is not with 538's now-cast but that polls-only looks almost identical to the now-cast. It's great that you see a lot of volatility in the polling, but then shouldn't you suspect that the polls will continue to be volatile such that you could have predicted that they were probably going to move a lot from wherever they happened to be in mid-August?
At one point he even criticizes other models for not moving a lot after each convention. But of course your model shouldn't move much after the conventions. Conventions aren't surprising! You knew months before the convention that the convention would happen and the candidate would get a polling bounce, so you could have included it in your model beforehand. It's true that if you're trying to build a model from only polls with no information about the timing of important events like this you're going to have issues distinguishing unexpected movement that signals a change in the dynamics of the race from expected movement due to things like conventions. That's a weakness of a polls-only model, and it means that if you're making a polls-only model you should probably not make it very reactive because if you do you're going to see a lot of artificial movement where your model thinks that a totally normal event is actually a big shift in who's likely to win.
At one point he even criticizes other models for not moving a lot after each convention. But of course your model shouldn't move much after the conventions. Conventions aren't surprising! You knew months before the convention that the convention would happen and the candidate would get a polling bounce, so you could have included it in your model beforehand. It's true that if you're trying to build a model from only polls with no information about the timing of important events like this you're going to have issues distinguishing unexpected movement that signals a change in the dynamics of the race from expected movement due to things like conventions. That's a weakness of a polls-only model, and it means that if you're making a polls-only model you should probably not make it very reactive because if you do you're going to see a lot of artificial movement where your model thinks that a totally normal event is actually a big shift in who's likely to win.
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