I really hope maximum minimums is brought up in the debate or at least a discussion about marijuana arrest rates.
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PoliGAF 2016 |OT11| Well this is exciting
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I really hope maximum minimums is brought up in the debate or at least a discussion about marijuana arrest rates.
rokkerkory
Member
How's this nut job folks?
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news...paign-chair-no-racism-before-obama?CMP=twt_gu
Obama brought racism to america.
She's a gem for the RNC.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news...paign-chair-no-racism-before-obama?CMP=twt_gu
Obama brought racism to america.
She's a gem for the RNC.
Time for Hillary to turn the CO and VA ads back on?
balladofwindfishes
Member
In VA? Leading by 6 is nothing to be concerned about at all. That's like the definition of a comfortable lead.
cartoon_soldier
Member
whyamihere
Banned
Nothing from today really suggests that's necessary, especially not in VA. She's had a +7 poll today in CO from a good firm.
Aaron Strife
Banned
GOP is tracking about even with 2012, Democrats are down.
But I guess there were some shenanigans/different circumstances between 2012 and 2016 (and even 2014) so it's hard to draw a direct parallel.
So long as Democrats keep running ahead of the other two in requested ballots (between today and Monday they've accounted for ~50% of new ballot requests with the GOP/NPA splitting roughly even) they should be fine by Election Day. The more concerning thing should be former Obama voters going third party or even Trump.
whyamihere
Banned
Of which there are few of in Colorado, many of in Iowa.
There is no teleprompter Trump without an actual teleprompter.
But what if that lead is only that big cause heavily populated liberal states like Cali skew the numbers?
whyamihere
Banned
No.
Retromelon
Member
It's a poligaf in joke to always bitch about labels on political cartoons
I want her to turn them all back on everywhere in the final weeks. I don't want anything left to chance. I know things being close likely puts a fire under people but it scares the hell out of me.
Also I'm really seriously considering not watching the debate and just following the threads while trying to do something else that night. I still need to finish Xenoblade Chronicles X. Maybe I should play that and just check in here and the discord.
RustyNails
Member
Obama/Biden need to get out and get those voters back. Blanket the state with interviews and press.
Ninety minutes is not enough time to bring up anything but the Clinton Foundation, emails, and Hillary's health.
whyamihere
Banned
AHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH
@JarettSays
Brand is strong with "Last Man Standing's" tagline
DontBeThatGuy
Member
There was a lot of back and forth with Colorado polling with Obama/Romney, right? I think he ended up winning by a decent margin though. (of course, Hillary is not Obama, so not a great metric this election)
Why not?
That shitty show's still going? I thought it got cancelled years ago...
Just give me a blue Ohio. I told my step dad that there aren't enough racists and rich white men to in the country to elect Trump. I would love to be able to follow that up with there not being enough racists in Ohio for him as well.
GregLombardi
Member
Here's an inside metric I can actually provide from having lived in Colorado. The voters are very bernie-esque, and in addition, hundreds of thousands of the young have flooded Denver even in the last 4 years. I believe between 2013 and Jan 2016 when I left, something like 200-400k new people moved to Colorado. I would say a substantial % of those were young people, likely to vote Democrat. The state is in a massive torrent of change.
Looks like that was mostly in October http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/co/colorado_romney_vs_obama-2023.html
The difference between the RCP average and final result tho
Black Mamba
Member
Because pollsters weight by region, generally.
This is what caused the big problem for Romney's Gallup numbers. Gallup attributed something like 40% of their national vote to the South which skewed their numbers improperly.
If California is being oversampled, the pollsters correct for it unless they're stupid.
Generally, they try to get a certain amount of responses from each region (based on area codes) to avoid having to adjust much.
Ah okay, thanks.
BotoxAgent
Member
Ditto, the debates are too nerve wracking for me. I will not watch it but will continue to monitor PoliGAF to see how she's doing. I can't stand Trump's voice at all.
Aaron Strife
Banned
Incidentally Obama's popular vote margin in 2012 came entirely from CA/NY. Still kicked Romney's ass in the EV spread.
Honestly one thing I wonder about is if she gets higher than usual percentage of votes in guaranteed blue states but loses states like florida, ohio, wisconsin, Iowa and whatever other close ones there are and then comes within a few percentage points in high population states like texas, Georgia and semi populous states like arizona that used to swing heavy republican, what margin might she win the popular vote but lose the election. Is it conceivable that she could win by 3 to 4 million votes or more and still lose in a close electoral college.
I am not afraid of this yet but I can't help but feel that this scenario may be partially happening due to how much the national polls differ from state and I can't help but think that nate silver may be thinking a little of the same. I don't give his stats as much weight in my mind as I did in past elections but I'm not going to write him off. Everyone has consistently under estimated and written off trump yet here he is the republican candidate. I can't see how he can win but I also don't have much faith in the American electorate.
GregLombardi
Member
Am I the only one that gets instant heartburn when I think about Monday's debate?
I need a bottle of liquor for that night I think.
I need a bottle of liquor for that night I think.
It wouldn't skew the numbers much. Maybe a percent at most.
Aaron Strife
Banned
Gore won the popular vote by a smidge and lost by 3 EVs. I feel the probability of Clinton losing while winning the PV by several million would have to be pretty low.
not likely.
It's almost impossible. If hilary is winnng by that many votes she's most likely getting votes in enough states to break 270. I don't think I have seen an example of what you are describing in US politcs but I have heard examples of this in canadian politics before like this one.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Canadian_federal_election,_1979
That example occured because PET got destroyed in the west in that election. The winner of that election lost the popular vote by over 4%..
T
thepotatoman
Unconfirmed Member
He became pretty safe in the last few primary debates, just like how Palin played it pretty safe in the vp debate.
Basically you just have to answer everything with your prepared talking points, even if it has nothing to do with the question being asked.
Aaron Strife
Banned
Also consider that most Obama states have Dem leans. Only Ohio and Florida voted more Republican than the nation of the Obama states. Some states will shift around (Iowa being the obvious candidate) but a 3-4 million PV lead would keep those states pretty secure.
Not to mention states like NC which are trending Democratic.
Ziltoidia 9
Member
Worst fear is neither gets 270 and congress picks. Country would be in an uproar. It already is going to be, but damn. If Hillary wins popular vote and they pick Trump. Worse yet, Hillary wins popular vote and congress picks Pence or some establishments darling.
Spoiled Milk
Banned
Why bother having debates if everyone's minds are already made up
User 463088
Banned
Why have debates if the wifi isn't real!?
I mean, yeah that would be bad, but the actual odds of that happening are slim to none so I really would not worry about it.
That's what I said. Why even watch it if people assume Trump will "win" and dominate the headlines next week.
RustyNails
Member
balladofwindfishes
Member
They can't, legally, pick Pence. Their choices would be Trump, Clinton or Johnson. Only the top 3 candidates are eligible.
I hope people's assumptions about trump somehow managing to win the debate get destroyed because this reminds me off some of the stuff said about trudeau related to the debates in the federal election last year in Canada and he managed to do decent in them.
Wiz
Member
I'm listening to Keepin' it 1600, and they're talking about Obama's bad performance in the 2012 first debate. America was bedwetting like it never bedwetted before, and everyone thought he lost the race after that...but he still won decisively (albeit, with 2 good follow up debates)
I think we are over-hyping this first debate in thinking it will be the deciding moment in this election. It might not have as much sway as we think. But It will be a historic event in television lol. Numbers will be huge.
Just my hot take
Aaron Strife
Banned
Don't they have to win at least one EV too? It would come down to Clinton and Trump.
I'm not worried about the debates after thinking about how different the format will be from the Republican primary debates.
Serious questions requiring thoughtful answers in front of a serious audience.
Trump's rambling, incoherent non-answers held up in direct contrast to...well, am actual adult. No hooting after every answer he gives.
Matt Lauer moderating the concessions stand in the lobby.
It would take a herculean effort for even the media to give Trump a winning edit.
Serious questions requiring thoughtful answers in front of a serious audience.
Trump's rambling, incoherent non-answers held up in direct contrast to...well, am actual adult. No hooting after every answer he gives.
Matt Lauer moderating the concessions stand in the lobby.
It would take a herculean effort for even the media to give Trump a winning edit.
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