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PoliGAF 2016 |OT11| Well this is exciting
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Plinko
Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
Democrats are down about 40000 ballots compared to this time 4 years ago, which is huge, but, as you say, perhaps there are different circumstances this time around.
I vote for tiny fingered vulgarian.
Take notes, Hillary: Bernie had some great moments where he didn't have to say a word..
I actually think those moments hurt Bernie. He looked like a child.
tedrotheredro
Member
I think the debate will show that Hilary has actual policies and legit experience while Trump has a lot of "rah rah" with no depth. The primary debates showed this in spades.
Only thing I'm worried about is Hilary coming off as un-likable / cold. Or a coughing fit. If she does neither, then there's no way this debate moves the needle in favor of Trump.
I'm not worried in the least about Trump's "performance".
Only thing I'm worried about is Hilary coming off as un-likable / cold. Or a coughing fit. If she does neither, then there's no way this debate moves the needle in favor of Trump.
I'm not worried in the least about Trump's "performance".
Take notes, Hillary: Bernie had some great moments where he didn't have to say a word..
He looked pretty condescending if you ask me. I don't like that.
She should call him a millionaire.
I'm thinking that it'll come across differently against a buffoon like Trump, especially if she's not too cartoonish about it.
Take notes, Hillary: Bernie had some great moments where he didn't have to say a word..
I'd far rather she went back to that 11 hour hearing she had, way better.
Plinko
Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
My one and only worry about Hillary at the debate:
If she won't challenge Trump and call him out when he's lying. She absolutely has to do this. She can't sit back and let him lie the entire time with no repercussion. Show that he's wrong, and show that you're the better person for the job.
If she won't challenge Trump and call him out when he's lying. She absolutely has to do this. She can't sit back and let him lie the entire time with no repercussion. Show that he's wrong, and show that you're the better person for the job.
User 463088
Banned
Those were my favorite parts. /shadeTake notes, Hillary: Bernie had some great moments where he didn't have to say a word..
No, but seriously, Hillary has had to debate Obama and, to a lesser degree, Bernie. (Not shade. Bernie's not a good debater. It doesn't fit his campaign style which is 100% stump even when the question is not related to his stump speech. No shade being thrown).
Trump....doesn't do specifics. He doesn't do rational. He just rambles. I know a lot of you hate that her campaign has beaten over and over how unfit he is to be President. There's a reason for this. (He is!) But also, because of what they've done, the public agrees. Even though he does "better" in polling, his numbers abou if he's qualified or has the right temperament are as low as they have ever been. You just have to trigger him into saying something stupid or racist during the debates, and you win on substance and style.
DontBeThatGuy
Member
Take notes, Hillary: Bernie had some great moments where he didn't have to say a word..
Please proceed, Trump.
That's actually a tempered insult.
That said. She doesn't need to call him anything. She just needs to focus on who she is. Focus on the contrast. Her knowledge about everything. Her ability to get into the details. I can't for the life of me believe Donald knows or will say anything of substance. The man already says he shouldn't be fact checked and he's been saying the debates will be treating him unfairly. He's already got his defense lined up if he loses.
Clinton of course should hit him when it counts, but show that hopeful message. Show you knowledge on policy etc.
This is the first time a lot of people will be seeing Hillary and Donald side by side. Hillary needs to show why she's different.
DontBeThatGuy
Member
"Chester Cheetah".
Plinko
Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
I still think Trump is going to come off better than expected for a while, but Hillary will unravel him with a subtle dig and the wheels will come off from then on. That's exactly what happened at the GOP primary debates.
Right. This is the time for contrast.
Boke1879 said:
Right. This is the time for contrast.
StopMakingSense
Member
Take notes, Hillary: Bernie had some great moments where he didn't have to say a word..
Ask Gore how well that went for him.
whyamihere
Banned
It's not that complicated, actually. Democrats are down huge from 2012, and Republicans are down huge from 2014. Because of the timing difference of when the Iowa SoS started early voting due to envelope printing issues (I am serious), it's likely neither party has really started their early voting push in earnest until now, making year-to-year comparisons with 12 and 14 useless.
Damn.
Plinko
Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
LOL really? Wow. That is bad timing. Thanks for the detailed update--that clears it up. This is why I love this board.
I mean, what do you expect exactly? For him to call her a bitch and talk how the blacks are destroying America? Because he won't.
But he will ramble incoherently and will dodge a lot of questions because he doesn't know. Anything.
I'll forever be bitter about that. This still amazes me, especially after seeing what Trump's gotten away with this year.
..
And I'm leery of Hillary doing any sort of overt name-calling. Subtle, low-key shade is cool, but not joining him in the clown pit..
Plinko
Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
Nope--I'm not one that has been insisting he'll do that. He'll stay under control in that area.
Dodging questions and flat out lying is going to be what shows the contrast. Hillary just needs to make sure she answers things directly. No "Mook interview" stuff.
whyamihere
Banned
Michael McDonald has been good at reporting on this, and I suggest you follow if you have early voting questions.
User 463088
Banned
So, no, actually. Hillary doesn't need to fact check him constantly. She can get buy with saying "That is incorrect, Donald..." and then give the correct answer. She has to make sure doesn't go too negative on him.
Let's have some real talk: This is the first time a woman is doing this. And there are, shitty as it may be, gender norms she's going to be going up against. She has to be firm, yet compassionate. She has to be strong, yet vulnerable. She has to be right, but not shrill. It's not right, but it is what it is.
So, the idea that she can go after Trump every, single time he says something wrong is just....no. You have to save that shit for those big "gotcha" instances. Because that's when it works best.
Let's have some real talk: This is the first time a woman is doing this. And there are, shitty as it may be, gender norms she's going to be going up against. She has to be firm, yet compassionate. She has to be strong, yet vulnerable. She has to be right, but not shrill. It's not right, but it is what it is.
So, the idea that she can go after Trump every, single time he says something wrong is just....no. You have to save that shit for those big "gotcha" instances. Because that's when it works best.
Plinko
Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
Thanks for the recommendation--I just followed him on Twitter.
I think she needs to avoid this. Pick out his most egregious lies and hammer them, but don't chase the rabbit because nearly every word out of Trump's mouth will be a lie.
Above all, Hillary needs to not let the debate become a food fight. Trump knows he can't win a debate against Hillary on substance, so guaranteed he will do everything he can to pull her into the mud with him, because as we've seen that only helps him.
Plinko
Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
Right, and the gender norms are a great point. She's in a much tougher position here than Trump is. She doesn't need to call him a liar, just correct the answer and move forward.
royalan said:
I'm not suggesting she hit him every single time--it will make her look like a whiner. Adam's plan is in the same area of what I was thinking--hit the blatant stuff, correct things in her answer, move forward.
What happened with Gore? Was he not properly prepared to debate Bush?
User 463088
Banned
This seems really good for us.
So, first, look at this graph from Upshot's NC poll again.
Then read this:
Michael McDonald ‏@ElectProject
Of the non-Hispanic White voters who have requested ballots in NC
Born in NC: 15,927
Born elsewhere: 32,110
So, first, look at this graph from Upshot's NC poll again.
Then read this:
Michael McDonald ‏@ElectProject
Of the non-Hispanic White voters who have requested ballots in NC
Born in NC: 15,927
Born elsewhere: 32,110
RastaMentality
Banned
Tulsa cop charged with manslaughter. Let's hope there's results.
whyamihere
Banned
Really cool pieces on the GOP and Hillary campaign's GOTV efforts. The GOP is, surprisingly, unconcerned about field offices.
GOP: https://www.washingtonpost.com/news...bout-how-many-field-offices-it-has/?tid=a_inl
Hillary: https://www.washingtonpost.com/news...lary-clintons-happy-volunteer-strategy-works/
(The GOP graph obviously mislabeled Michigan as Pennsylvania)
GOP: https://www.washingtonpost.com/news...bout-how-many-field-offices-it-has/?tid=a_inl
Hillary: https://www.washingtonpost.com/news...lary-clintons-happy-volunteer-strategy-works/
(The GOP graph obviously mislabeled Michigan as Pennsylvania)
whyamihere
Banned
Black Mamba
Member
Here's my quick thought on the debate and Hillary.
I'm of the belief that while she has to contradict Trump's BS, she also has to lay out her own stuff accessibly.
The takeaway from the debate has to be more "Okay, Hillary has actual real ideas with goals and a method and Trump just says he'll fix things without telling us how or even what the problem exactly is."
If that happens, she wins easily.
In fact, I believe there's one type of moment that could absolutely destroy Trump if played right and it goes like this.
I'm of the belief that while she has to contradict Trump's BS, she also has to lay out her own stuff accessibly.
The takeaway from the debate has to be more "Okay, Hillary has actual real ideas with goals and a method and Trump just says he'll fix things without telling us how or even what the problem exactly is."
If that happens, she wins easily.
In fact, I believe there's one type of moment that could absolutely destroy Trump if played right and it goes like this.
Moderator "Mr Trump, what do you think about ....."
Trump: "Word Salad"
Moderator: Your response, Secretary Clinton?
Clinton: Well, for starters, what Mr. Trump said there appeared to be mostly incoherent. At no point did he address the question in any meaningful way that demonstrated he even understands the issue, so I don't know how to directly respond to his words so instead I will just answer the question myself, "Answers question with real understanding and policy."
1. This will set Trump off, maybe even cause him to interrupt her.
2. This will show any voters left that matter than Trump is a buffoon and Hillary is not and she should win by default.
Trump: "Word Salad"
Moderator: Your response, Secretary Clinton?
Clinton: Well, for starters, what Mr. Trump said there appeared to be mostly incoherent. At no point did he address the question in any meaningful way that demonstrated he even understands the issue, so I don't know how to directly respond to his words so instead I will just answer the question myself, "Answers question with real understanding and policy."
1. This will set Trump off, maybe even cause him to interrupt her.
2. This will show any voters left that matter than Trump is a buffoon and Hillary is not and she should win by default.
Aaron Strife
Banned
The rate of increase seems good so far, about the same as 2012. Hopefully they catch up to Obama's campaign.
This.
Obama lost the first debate by chasing rabbits and Clinton is at her worst when she's chasing rabbits. Like it or not, "Make America Great Again" is a simple and clear message and if Trump hits that while Clinton just tries to fact check every detail, her message will get muddled. I agree with Adam: she needs to correct him on the egregious lies, but otherwise just say "there he goes again", or "no Donald, that's not true" and then go into her positive message.
Where I think she can excel in the debate is by highlighting everything that is currently good in the country while Donald keeps talking doom and gloom. The contrast there will be stark and she does have the facts on her side. The country is demonstrably in a better place today than 2008, but we will have work to do. Make that point, talk about how to achieve a better future, and raise the country's spirits. Let Trump talk about how shitty everything is and he'll be stuck chasing his own rabbits.
Plinko
Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
At first I was surprised they were ramping up the racist stuff now, but thinking of the polls I have seen about racism in America (racial profiling, banning immigrants, etc.,) it kind of makes sense.
Really cool pieces on the GOP and Hillary campaign's GOTV efforts. The GOP is, surprisingly, unconcerned about field offices.
GOP: https://www.washingtonpost.com/news...bout-how-many-field-offices-it-has/?tid=a_inl
Hillary: https://www.washingtonpost.com/news...lary-clintons-happy-volunteer-strategy-works/
(The GOP graph obviously mislabeled Michigan as Pennsylvania)
Also either the "30" is wrong for Michigan or the size of the circle is wrong.
Plinko
Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
I feel this would go over very poorly.
PantherLotus
Professional Schmuck
1. The Gore thing, like all Gore things, is overblown. He won.
2. We're mostly all overthinking this. Hillary has always debated Very Well.
3. Anyone actually worrying go watch that 11-hour questioning again. She knows how to prepare and as with her entire candidacy she's probably the most prepared person since GHWB.
2. We're mostly all overthinking this. Hillary has always debated Very Well.
3. Anyone actually worrying go watch that 11-hour questioning again. She knows how to prepare and as with her entire candidacy she's probably the most prepared person since GHWB.
whyamihere
Banned
I wonder why.
Cesare Borgia
Banned
From what I understand Iowa was not one of the earliest target states for Clinton. Mobilization there will ramp up in coming weeks. I think the utter lack of any registration machine or GOTV focus on Trump's end will make up for it.
To kinda go back to Cybit's point earlier...if Cruz was the nominee he'd win Iowa easily. Trump is fucking this up in epic fashion.
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