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PoliGAF 2016 |OT11| Well this is exciting

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P

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
Trump saying he shouldn't be fact-checked in the debate is interesting. I feel like that is only going to make them want to do it more.
 
R

Retromelon

Member
Trump names heavyweight group of Catholic advisers
Republican presidential nominee Donald J. Trump, who has struggled with Catholic voters in some polls, on Wednesday named an advisory council of respected conservative Catholic leaders.

The list of 33 advisors includes prominent Pennsylvanians, such as former Republican Sen. Rick Santorum, who ran for president in 2012 and 2016; Faith Whittlesey, former U.S. ambassador to Switzerland and a high-ranking political official in the Reagan White House; and U.S. Rep. Mike Kelly, Republican of Erie.
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President Obama beat Romney overall among Catholics four years ago, but by just two percentage points (50-48). A Washington Post-ABC News Poll late in late August found that Democrat Hillary Clinton led among Catholics overall by 27 points, 61 percent to 34 percent. It was the biggest demographic shift in the Post-ABC survey, explained in large measure by Trump’s dismal showing among Latinos, many of whom are Catholic.
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Trump's biggest election mistake was spitting in the face of Big latino
 
D

daedalius

Member
Those Ohians on the Daily show the other day were as dumb as bricks.

This election is the literal definitely of Truthiness

"I have no proof, but it feels right to me!"
 
Z

Zukkoyaki

Member
So we've gotten two CO polls today: +7, +2
And two VA poll: +7, +6

I'll take it!

These along with what we've seen from PA, NH, WI and MI means that Trump still doesn't have a path to 270 even after the last two weeks. We've also seen solid national polls this week (Rass aside for obvious reasons).

Let's also not forget that Q has a slight R bias (they're still a strong pollster).
 
Z

Ziltoidia 9

Member
Boke1879 said:
Sure they don't care, but you catch him up in some bullshit, then make him explain said bullshit and then why he believes such bullshit might sway some undecideds/swing voters
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BiggNife said:
No, but undecideds probably would.
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That would be the plan, but thing is I think Trump is just so good at weaseling himself out of things. I do think though he is planning on going into the debate more of the "telepromter" type trump apposed to what we saw in the RNC debates. I think he is going to try and make people think he cares, give a somber tone but at the same time be "straight forward." All by exaggerating, of course, but I think thats his game plan. I think he has been warned at attacking Hillary unless she really goes at him.

As far as undecideds? I have no idea what they are looking for. I think they are looking to vote for someone they hate less, apposed to voting for someone they like more.
 
W

whyamihere

Banned
The last poll that Hillary had where she was leading Iowa was a Quinnipiac poll in mid-August where she was up by 3.

That does not inspire confidence in Iowa.
 
H

Holmes

Member
nature boy said:
UH Poll: Clinton leads Trump by 10 in Harris County
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She won't win Texas, but her large leads in places like this are affecting the downballot, according to this poll.

tumblr_inline_oadynizcg71qma0wn_500.gif
 
R

royalan

Member
Gruco said:
Dylan Matthews on the Clinton Foundation




I don't think it's an exaggeration to say that the Clinton Foundation stories have been one of the most disastrous media failings since the run up to the Iraq War. In story after story, from NPR to the NYT to the AP, press have characterized the Clinton Foundation as an entity whose main purpose is enriching the Clintons. They have ignored their own reporting, which has failed to show any improper activity, and instead focused on the presumption that it must exist because of the possibility that it might exist.

Which is all the more amazing when considering Trump is running an illegal slush fund in the form of a charitable org.

And yet a Nexus search for media mentions will show several hundred times more ink on the Clinton Foundation than the Trump Foundation. Other the Fahrenthold at the Post, nobody is even bothering to give his story of flagrantly illegal activity any meaningful resources.

I anticipate I will be salty about this for a good 20 years. It's truly shameful.
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Agreed. Glad this was reported.
 
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
whyamihere said:
The last poll that Hillary had where she was leading Iowa was a Quinnipiac poll in mid-August where she was up by 3.

That does not inspire confidence in Iowa.
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In that poll Clinton was at 47 and Trump was at 44. Only Clinton's number has changed

Consolidating undecideds (who were previously voting for Clinton) + strong ground game = Clinton wins
 
C

Crisco

Banned
Honestly, if national polls showing her up 5+ keep coming out, we don't need to really worry about state polls. She aint winning the popular vote by that much and losing the election.
 
Z

Zukkoyaki

Member
Teggy said:
I hope they are planning to reengage in Colorado or otherwise know something we don't.
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I think their internal numbers must be a lot better than this poll. The fact that they haven't bought more ads seems to be as good a confirmation that we can expect. Also don't forget we got a Colorado poll from a pretty highly rated pollster this morning that had Clinton +7.
 
W

whyamihere

Banned
nature boy said:
Plouffe ain't a big fan of Q, so I guess he knows something that we don't.
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I know this bothered a lot of people:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/loca...429962-532b-11e6-bbf5-957ad17b4385_story.html

Just before the party conventions in July, Quinnipiac released surveys showing tight Clinton-Trump matchups in the swing states of Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania. That generated priceless and immediate publicity.

“You do a statewide poll in Florida, it’s in 200 newspapers,” said Quinnipiac President John L. Lahey. “It’s on every local station all over Florida.”

Lahey is mindful that there are not just 29 electoral votes in the Sunshine State. There are also hundreds of thousands of high school students. The university recruits where it surveys, tying the work into a much broader strategy right from the start, Lahey said. His goal is to transform Quinnipiac “into a major national university.”
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Teggy said:
I hope they are planning to reengage in Colorado or otherwise know something we don't.
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(They probably think she's up by 7-8, not 2)
 
R

RustyNails

Member
Iowa seems to be drifting away but I have confidence in the Iowa ground game, and enthusiasm for Hillary picking steam after next week. Biden should set up tent in Iowa and give speeches every day.
 
Z

Zukkoyaki

Member
I get such a kick out of these 50-state polls from folks like Google Consumer Surveys. There's some real gems here.

Missouri: C+1
Florida: T+13
Main: T+2
Arizona: C+5
Indiana: Tie
Kansas: C+12
Utah: C+4
PA: T+1

You can see them all on 538's updates page: http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/updates/

Plinko said:
I need more polls in Colorado. That would be a disaster if they blew that lead. She needs it for the victory.
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Again, this polls still shows Clinton ahead and we got another CO poll this morning from a good pollster that had her +7 ^_^
 
B

balladofwindfishes

Member
T

Teggy

Member
Well here's a hot take

Ines de La CuetaraVerified account
‏@InesdLC
Pence: "Trump and I believe there's been far too much talk about institutional bias and racism within law enforcement"
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Z

Zukkoyaki

Member
balladofwindfishes said:
How do these people have only a B on 538? Shouldn't they be much lower, those results are too weird to actually be legitimate polls.
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I know right?

Though I don't think they are real polls. I think they just conduct a massive online poll (with seemingly poor methodology because both candidates are consistently in mid to low 30s even now in mid September) and just list out the numbers from each as their own "poll".

But man some of these are amazing. Clinton +12 in Kansas?!? Get the FUCK out! I mean I can picture Trump's winning margin being a little smaller than expected because conservatives have recently destroyed their economy, but Clinton doesn't have a shot in hell of winning it.
 
Y

Y2Kev

TLG Fan Caretaker Est. 2009
Colorado is not concerning to me. Too many educated whites for trump to go nuts. Iowa though. Nope.
 
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