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PoliGAF 2016 |OT15| Orange is the New Black

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Zukkoyaki

Member
This morning's national poll round-up for new page:

C+3 Bloomberg/Selzer
C+4 ABC/WaPo
C+4 RKM/Boston Harold
C+6 NBC/SurveyMonkey
 

TheFatOne

Member
Schmidt laying the truthbombs and Joe completely ignoring it

Schmidt is one of the few legit guys they have. When he says something I don't agree with at least I see the logic behind his reasoning. I can respect that. Not always going to agree, but at least I can see that the point is reasonable. Can't say the same for most of the pundits on MSNBC.
So what caused the polls to tighten, officially? Clinton was gonna win by at least 7-10 points. Was it Comey or just Republicans coming home?

Republicans coming home. The Comey thing was overblown. She probably lost some vote, but it wasn't nearly as bad as most made it out to be. Trump was gaining before the Comey news hit. Safe to say it was most likely just Republicans finally coming on board. Won't know for sure until the after election dissections.

Edit: She essentially lost some of her soft supporters, and she may have just lost some those anyways on the day they went to vote.
 
Getting back on the hopium and saying she wins by 7-8 52 seats


Just please get to 50%. I don't want to hear shit about how half the country didn't vote for her. Despite the decent number of times that has happened
 

Diablos

Member
Schmidt is one of the few legit guys they have. When he says something I don't agree with at least I see the logic behind his reasoning. I can respect that. Not always going to agree, but at least I can see that the point is reasonable. Can't say the same for most of the pundits on MSNBC.


Republicans coming home. The Comey thing was overblown. She probably lost some vote, but it wasn't nearly as bad as most made it out to be. Trump was gaining before the Comey news hit. Safe to say it was most likely just Republicans finally coming on board. Won't know for sure until the after election dissections.

Edit: She essentially lost some of her soft supporters, and she may have just lost some those anyways on the day they went to vote.
I essentially agree with this. Still, fuck Comey. I hope he quits and is forced to work as a Walmart greeter on Black Friday.
 
So what caused the polls to tighten, officially? Clinton was gonna win by at least 7-10 points. Was it Comey or just Republicans coming home?
Probably republicans coming home. PPP said there was a blip last weekend and things were back to normal by Monday.

Frankly I think she wins by 7-8 points, pollsters are seriously misunderestimating the Latino vote. It won't do much for the electoral map besides locking down Florida and Nevada (and possibly flipping Arizona), but pushing up her margins in California and Texas might give her an extra point or two. 8 I think is about the most you can expect in today's environment, modern landslide.
 

Zukkoyaki

Member
Harry Enten really is the best:

IBD/TIPP is weird. They have Trump at 43% in the four-way, but 42% in the two-way? He loses support with fewer candidates asked? Weird.

Meanwhile w/ Nate Silver: "Look at these trendzzzz!!"
 

Doc Holliday

SPOILER: Columbus finds America
Schmidt is one of the few legit guys they have. When he says something I don't agree with at least I see the logic behind his reasoning. I can respect that. Not always going to agree, but at least I can see that the point is reasonable. Can't say the same for most of the pundits on MSNBC.

I feel the same way about Mike Murphy. Been listening to his podcast and it's weidd hearing the "normal" Republicans talk after hearing Trump/tea baggers for so long.
 

Diablos

Member
Probably republicans coming home. PPP said there was a blip last weekend and things were back to normal by Monday.

Frankly I think she wins by 7-8 points, pollsters are seriously misunderestimating the Latino vote. It won't do much for the electoral map besides locking down Florida and Nevada (and possibly flipping Arizona), but pushing up her margins in California and Texas might give her an extra point or two. 8 I think is about the most you can expect in today's environment, modern landslide.
I think she wins by 4-5. 50-51 seats or she's got a tough slog ahead of her.

If she wins by up to 8 though, I hope we get 52 seats at least. If she doesn't that's just depressing.

But see we don't know the extent of this blip and how many points it shaved off. Could have been 1, could have been 3 or 4!
 
Anybody have recap of Mook on CNN?

And what did Enten say about Florida?

Cwp7_pbXAAAaRJt.jpg
 

TheFatOne

Member
Enten said something real quick when talking to Morning Joe. Joe brought up the point that there could be a polling error which Enten agreed to, but also quickly pointed out the error could also be in Hilarys favor. People keep assuming for some reason that if the polls are wrong that Trump benefits due to his "silent" supporters. From what we have seen so far it's looking more likely that these polls have really fucked up in regards to the Latino vote. Those numbers out in Florida are just eye popping. Same for the early numbers in NV. Right now you have to essentially throw out most of the polls done in any state with a heavy population of Latinos. I would bet that one of the lead stories on Wednesday is just how terrible the polls were in regards to the Latino vote, and how this may be a new water shed moment in American political history. Could be the mark of when Latinos finally starting to come out to vote in numbers, and flexed their political muscle.

I feel the same way about Mike Murphy. Been listening to his podcast and it's weidd hearing the "normal" Republicans talk after hearing Trump/tea baggers for so long.

I keep forgetting Murphy appears pretty frequently. His podcast is great. The republican resistance angle is pretty sweet as well.
 

Zukkoyaki

Member
Largest voter group by county from the Upshot.

Dark Blue = White no college
Light Blue = White, some college
Dark Grey = White, college degree
Light Grey = Minorities
No wonder Missouri is getting worse :p

And speaking of Missouri, Emerson released a final round of their landline-only garbage polls... Kander +1
 
D

Deleted member 30609

Unconfirmed Member
The idea of Guiliani in any sort of position of power is fucking farcical. But then Donald Trump is very nearly president, so -- you know -- perspective.
 
Back when Hillary Clinton first secured the nomination, my girlfriend and I were talking about her likelihood of success as the first female front runner. As a woman, there would be innumerable challenge she would need to overcome that a male candidate would not.

I said I was confident the America that elected Barrack Obama would also elect Hillary Clinton. She then asked if I thought America was more sexist than it is racist, and I said I really didn't know. I said that maybe the election would demonstrate an answer.

It's difficult to make any actual comparison here. Hillary Clinton brought a lot of baggage that Barrack Obama did not. We will never know how a Barrack Obama would have been treated if he had his own "emails". But I thought I would ask the question to PoliGAF now that the election is concluding.

Based on the political struggles of our current and next president, would you say America is more racist or more sexist?

Please note that I am not asking which is a bigger PROBLEM. They are both problems of inhumane immensity. I am not asking "who has it worse." I'm asking if there are more racists than their are sexists and how does that affect the public perceptions of our two leaders.

I choose sexism because it is not socially permissible to be racist, but it is still perfectly normal to be sexist. This is especially true now that racist is called "populism." People disguise their racism, but they do not disguise their sexism.

Then again, "populism" has made it perfectly normal to be racist.
 
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