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PoliGAF 2016 |OT15| Orange is the New Black

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Tommy DJ

Member
PoliGAF, be honest with me here; how exactly does it look like it'll play out tomorrow based on what we know has happened in Early voting and the final polls that're coming out, because I've been arguing with people lately that Clinton odds of winning are very high from all the numbers I've been seeing here from said polls and voting, but no one will fucking listen for me because of the media bullshit over here (not American BTW).

The presentation of the election overseas has been one that only took into account national polling results and not state results. Considering hyper-polarization, it was always going to be "close".

The thing with US general elections is that the president is decided whenever they can reach 270 electoral votes. Both Republican and Democratic Parties have a certain amount of electroal votes already locked up...you're not going to expect Alabama to turn blue nor are you going to expect New York to turn red either. Huge upsets can happen, like some people thinking Clinton could win Arizona, but its very unlikely to be honest.

With that taken into account, what really matters are the swing states. This link is a good resource detailing the states in play and what either candidate has to do to win. The main swing states in question are Nevada, Iowa, Ohio, Florida, and North Carolina.

To put it simply, Trump needs to win literally every swing state and take control of a pretty safe Clinton state like Pennsylvania. If Clinton win Florida, Trump is essentially screwed. If Trump can't win a safe Clinton state, he still loses. So Trump winning is actually pretty unlikely to happen, especially when Trump is toast in Nevada and not looking too good in Florida.

There's only like two days until the election so there's not much point talking about it but that's why people are pretty positive that a Clinton victory is going to occur.
 

Jebusman

Banned
Man I'm real glad I have the next 4 days off, I can just sit back and enjoy the spectacle unfold.

Don't fuck this up America. Canada needs you to have a leader we can actually reason with.
 

sazzy

Member
One more day folks. If we can survive the next 24 hours without a major terrorist attack or Wikileaks revealing Hillary's Satanic child sex rituals pizza parties, we should be good.

I can't believe there isn't one last final epic juicy meaty savory tender mouth watering oppo drop on Donald.

RIGGED.
 
D

Deleted member 231381

Unconfirmed Member
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My guess. I think the Democratic ground game will allow Clinton to very slightly outperform her polls in key states, so I think she just about falls over the line in Florida and North Carolina. Least sure about Maine's 2nd district, because demographically it's tough and I haven't really seen any discussion of Democratic investment there, but it is a single electoral vote, so... don't care so much. I think she finishes on 323-322 (or allowing for WA's faithless elector, 322-321).
 

sazzy

Member
Morning Joe happened to mention that the FBI has closed the email investigation,

TEN MINUTES into the show.
 
I've been refraining from the misery of cable news for a while so that I wouldn't be burned out and could just watch the reaching, hand wringing and punditry of the next 3 days, but I still can't bring myself to watch Morning Joe this week.
 
I've been refraining from the misery of cable news for a while so that I wouldn't be burned out and could just watch the reaching, hand wringing and punditry of the next 3 days, but I still can't bring myself to watch Morning Joe this week.

I'm paraphrasing, but I like how Joe says, "Don't get me wrong, no one here is suggesting that a Brexit could happen in Michigan. But if it did happen, it would be in Michigan."

Cable news punditry in its purest form.
 

TheFatOne

Member
Someone from 538 is going to be on Morning Joe to discuss how they now have Clinton ahead in Florida. Please let it be Nate Bronze.

Edit: Fuck it's Enten. He's too reasonable.
 
we're basically seeing that the silent portion of the electorate that was not accounted for in polling was not trump voters who were worried about being accused of racist....its the massive undercounted hispanic population.

This is why:
  1. many Hispanic homes do not have landlines, which underreports them in most polling that is landline heavy/exclusive. National Center for Health Statistics shows that more than 60% of Hispanic households in wireless phone only - compared to 44% for whites);
  2. as a demographic, only 84% have internet-access (much lower than other populations)
  3. most polling is English-only.
 

Y2Kev

TLG Fan Caretaker Est. 2009
Someone from 538 is going to be on Morning Joe to discuss how they now have Clinton ahead in Florida. Please let it be Nate Bronze.

Edit: Fuck it's Enten. He's too reasonable.
He's more photogenic so have you noticed enten has been everywhere the past few days?
 

TheFatOne

Member
I'm looking forward to seeing the faux surprise by the media on Wednesday. Especially in terms of the hispanic vote. They are going be stunned that minority turnout was as high as it was even though Trump is a clear racist. The interesting thing to me is how the Spanish media portrays Trump vs the English media. Just a night and day different. Trump has gotten absolutely annihilated by the Spanish media, and they aren't afraid to just flat out call him a racist. On the flip side the English speaking media has handled him with kid gloves and refuses to call a spade a spade.

He's more photogenic so have you noticed enten has been everywhere the past few days?
Yea he's been all over MSNBC at least. I thought I saw him on CNN as well, but I'm not sure. Been watching a shit ton of this shitty ass media the last couple of week, and it's all just scrambled in my head.
 
Undersampled Latinos is hardly surprising, a known issue for a long time. Media doesn't care.

Even the Bloomberg poll shows a very optimistic latino gap for Trump
 
hew? lol



I said it on wednesday and I believe! this is H+5.

Dare I say the race will be called by midnight tuesday?
It'll be called by 11PM EST, as soon as the West Coast closes. Cali, Hawaii, Oregon and Washington will be called the minute polls close and should push her over 270.

That's when the first network call for Obama came in 2008 (basically all of them at once) while in 2012 the first network call (MSNBC I believe, the others were staggered a bit more) came at 11:12 EST.

Gonna guess 340-342. Sabato's map plus Ohio with room for the two competitive district EVs (NE-2 and ME-2). I want Arizona and Iowa too so I can pretend like I was this all-seeing soothsayer with my June map but whatever.
 

Zukkoyaki

Member
Early voting is my guess.
They don't factor in early voting. And if all of the sudden they decide to a day before the election after spending the past two weeks doubling-down on that position, they'll look terrible. Would be hilariously transparent.
 

thefro

Member
They don't factor in early voting. And if all of the sudden they decide to a day before the election after spending the past two weeks doubling-down on that position, they'll look terrible. Would be hilariously transparent.

Enten doesn't have a problem saying "our model says X, but I think Y will actually happen because of this and this".

Silver just gets mad because his model is wrong.
 

Diablos

Member
So what caused the polls to tighten, officially? Clinton was gonna win by at least 7-10 points. Was it Comey or just Republicans coming home?
 
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