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PoliGAF 2016 |OT15| Orange is the New Black

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Z

Zukkoyaki

Member
Gorger said:
All these polls are going up but 538 has decreased down to 63% now. Doesn't make sense.
Click to expand...

My guess is it was the Bloomberg/Selzer poll. It had Clinton higher last time and because TRENDZZZZ it hit the model hard. Silver has a hard-on for Selzer polls and weighs them freakishly heavily.

NEVER FORGET: The Selzer poll in September with Trump +2 that dropped Clinton 7% on 538. That was the day that I dismissed their model altogether.
 
O

obijkenobi

Member
Finale Fireworker said:
Back when Hillary Clinton first secured the nomination, my girlfriend and I were talking about her likelihood of success as the first female front runner. As a woman, there would be innumerable challenge she would need to overcome that a male candidate would not.

I said I was confident the America that elected Barrack Obama would also elect Hillary Clinton. She then asked if I thought America was more sexist than it is racist, and I said I really didn't know. I said that maybe the election would demonstrate an answer.

It's difficult to make any actual comparison here. Hillary Clinton brought a lot of baggage that Barrack Obama did not. We will never know how a Barrack Obama would have been treated if he had his own "emails". But I thought I would ask the question to PoliGAF now that the election is concluding.

Based on the political struggles of our current and next president, would you say America is more racist or more sexist?

Please note that I am not asking which is a bigger PROBLEM. They are both problems of inhumane immensity. I am not asking "who has it worse." I'm asking if there are more racists than their are sexists and how does that affect the public perceptions of our two leaders.

I choose sexism because it is not socially permissible to be racist, but it is still perfectly normal to be sexist. This is especially true now that racist is called "populism." People disguise their racism, but they do not disguise their sexism.[

Then again, "populism" has made it perfectly normal to be racist.
Click to expand...

It really is a tough comparison. Whoever won the 2008 Democratic nomination was going to win the White House for sure. Remember how unpopular the GOP and Bush were? A 2008 Hillary, to your point, wouldn't have had the e-mail scandal weighing her down. And I think the media would have focused on Hillary being the "first" female president more than they are now. Obama is also a once in a lifetime candidate so...

I guess I don't know how to answer your question. There's a lot of "ism" in this country.
 
P

Pyrokai

Member
My worst case scenario:

e3bO4.png


My best case scenario:

k4YXJ.png


President Clinton, incoming! I think the difference between these two maps of mine is the who wins control of the Senate, though.....and that terrifies me.

Would be nice to add AZ, GA, OH, and IA to the map, but I'm being conservative in my guess.
 
Y

Y2Kev

TLG Fan Caretaker Est. 2009
Here are my thoughts for the day

How does the cement not harden on the inside of the cement truck
 
D

DrMungo

Member
Zukkoyaki said:
My guess is it was the Bloomberg/Selzer poll. It had Clinton higher last time and because TRENDZZZZ it hit the model hard. Silver has a hard-on for Selzer polls and weighs them freakishly heavily.

NEVER FORGET: The Selzer poll in September with Trump +2 that dropped Clinton 7% on 538. That was the day that I dismissed their model altogether.
Click to expand...

Silver used to factor in the amount of time left in a campaign, and if it was closer to election day, any leads were weighed more. This does not seem to happen now.

The question is a simple "who will win?" not "Who is winning or trending?" like a sports league Power Rankins. 538 reminds me of the latter now.

I think people who watch polls closely have rightfully been skeptical of him
 
Y

Y2Kev

TLG Fan Caretaker Est. 2009
Simon Belmont said:
You could also manually stir it forever in a wheelbarrow if you had the inclination. Cement doesn't dry, it sets. If it dried the inside of it would be full of holes from where the water used to be. (Although you did say harden, just a fun fact about cement)
Click to expand...
Wow this is amazing to me. I thought it would eventually just dry. So how do they like clean the piping and stuff? The spouts and conveyer belts the cement comes down?
 
R

Retro

Member
Pyrokai said:
Would be nice to add AZ, GA, OH, and IA to the map, but I'm being conservative in my guess.
Click to expand...
but I'm being conservative in my guess.
Click to expand...
I'm being conservative
Click to expand...
conservative
Click to expand...

GET 'EM, BOYS! #pitchforks #torches #whyAmIUsingHashtagsThisIsn'tTwitter #That'sNotHowHashtagsWork

Seriously though, with the way Hispanics have been coming out like crazy, I wonder if Arizona isn't likely to flip. I dare not hope for Texas too, though early voting there has been good in Hispanic-heavy countries, apparently.

I still think Georgia is possible too. Ohio could be close.
 
S

Simon Belmont

Banned
Y2Kev said:
Wow this is amazing to me. I thought it would eventually just dry. So how do they like clean the piping and stuff? The spouts and conveyer belts the cement comes down?
Click to expand...

Probably just with a pressure washer. Scrape it off if it got stuck on. Concrete isn't so much like glue in that it bonds to itself but not to other stuff, so it won't get really stuck on there.
 
D

Deleted member 231381

Unconfirmed Member
Y2Kev said:
Here are my thoughts for the day

How does the cement not harden on the inside of the cement truck
Click to expand...

isn't it churned and hydrated at the same speed the water would dry from it?

EDIT: huh i stand corrected. clearly i need to brush up on my concrete basics
 
F

Finale Fireworker

Member
obijkenobi said:
I guess I don't know how to answer your question. There's a lot of "ism" in this country.
Click to expand...

I really wonder what the Hillary Clinton candidacy would have been like without Benghazi+emails. These two nonstarters have dominated her entire presidential bid. It stands to reason they have nothing else. So what would they have done to her? For Barrack Obama, they challenged his citizenship and the the legitimacy of his birth. AKA, disguised racism. But what would they have done to HRC?

Y2Kev said:
Wow this is amazing to me. I thought it would eventually just dry. So how do they like clean the piping and stuff? The spouts and conveyer belts the cement comes down?
Click to expand...

They throw away the whole truck and get a new one.
 
Y

Y2Kev

TLG Fan Caretaker Est. 2009
Finale Fireworker said:
I really wonder what the Hillary Clinton candidacy would have been like without Benghazi+emails. These two nonstarters have dominated her entire presidential bid. It stands to reason they have nothing else. So what would they have done to her? For Barrack Obama, they challenged his citizenship and the the legitimacy of his birth. AKA, disguised racism. But what would they have done to HRC?



They throw away the whole truck and get a new one.
Click to expand...

Cement trucks are made by Apple?
 
W

Wilsongt

Member
WikiLeaks
WikiLeaks‏ @wikileaks

HA Goodman: If you want to protect WikiLeaks sources, the Greens @DrJillStein has been their strongest defender

Stein a Russian operative confirmed?
 
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