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PoliGAF 2016 |OT2| we love the poorly educated

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C

Crocodile

Member
adam387 said:
There will never be a situation in which Iowa is not first. Iowa gives retail politics a chance. It lets the small guy/gal have a chance at winning. After that, though, I agree with you. A rolling primary calendar in which we balance states as best as possible is a good thing. NH, NV and SC won't go quietly.
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Considering Iowa has often been a poor predictor of who get the nomination, especially on the Republican side, maybe a different state should be chosen? Like has Iowa really helped any "little guy" actually make it far or win the a nomination?

Bam Bam Baklava said:
Huckabee?
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Perhaps there's a reason Huckabee hasn't endorsed yet?
 
T

Thunder Monkey

Banned
It's just wrong in general.

The only perk I have being a Dem in Kansas is knowing my vote went to the pop vote total, and the chance to nominate a candidate. Because it doesn't seem to matter how hard I fight for liberals of any party identification in house, senate, or governorship elections. They always get beat.
 
B

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
Crocodile said:
Considering Iowa has often been a poor predictor of who get the nomination, especially on the Republican side, maybe a different state should be chosen? Like has Iowa really helped any "little guy" actually make it far or win the a nomination?
Click to expand...


Well, Obama. It helped prove he could get white people to vote for him.

Generally I agree with you though, something like Nevada would probably be better.
 
C

cartoon_soldier

Member
Rubio in Minnesota bringing the A material: "Donald -- maybe you should call him CON-ald -- Trump."
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GTpLULQ.gif
 
T

Thunder Monkey

Banned
vicissitudes said:
Hear me out. Try looking at this from a long-term GOP perspective (I know that's hard for GAF to do).

The GOP has been losing in national elections since the early 90s and this will only exacerbate with current demographic changes. There needs to be a party realignment if they want to ever win the White House again. Everyone knows this. The GOP leadership knows it. It's been painfully clear since 2012.

So why are they so desperately holding onto a losing strategy? It's because trying to win the white vote (74% in 2012) is still more sound than trying to leech off some of the 26% minority vote, even though that white vote is going down every 4 years.

It's like how traditional TV is declining every year, but it's still the largest slice of the pie, and the Democrats have the streaming crowd wrapped up, so it makes no sense to suddenly abandon traditional TV to pander to Vudu users.

If the GOP wants to win, the best strategy is to consolidate the white vote. Right now they're mostly a platform tailored to white evangelicals and the very rich, both of which are small slices of the white population. What they need to become is a white populist party, who work for all white voters, not just those at the very top.

Now, does that mean they should discriminate against minorities? Absolutely not. They should treat all races equally, and be welcoming towards minorities in this country. However, they shouldn't bother pandering to minorities because it's been made very clear that they will not vote GOP, policy be damned.

Look at AA: they vote in staggering numbers for the establishment Democratic candidate, even if Sanders' record is actually incredibly AA-friendly. There is no way the GOP will get a slice of that pie, so no point in trying.
Look at the Hispanic vote: even before Trump they were voting heavily Democratic. Even in 2004 with W's attempts to win them over, they still went heavily for Kerry.
Even the Asian vote: they have been going 70+% for Democrats, even though they are the highest income earners in America and are voting against their own economic interests.

These groups are lost to the GOP. If the GOP wants to win national elections for the next few decades, this is what they need to do:

1. Energize the white working class and campaign on a populist platform. Abandon tax cuts for the very rich in favor of tax cuts for everyone, including the poor and middle class. Focus on creating businesses and jobs, and growing the economy.
2. Abandon extremely conservative positions on social issues. Gay marriage is a losing battle. Advocate for limiting abortions instead of banning them outright.
3. Adopt a more isolationist, nationalistic platform. Ironically in this race, both Trump and Bernie are more isolationist, with Hillary being more of a war hawk. Hillary is giving GOP the perfect chance to repaint the Democrats as the warmongering party. Let them wage wars all over the world while the GOP is focused on nation-building and staying out of other countries' affairs.
4. Along the same isolationist lines, we need immigration reform. If the strategy is to coalesce the white vote, then it must be complemented by immigration policies that keep illegals out, and bring in more white immigrants from Europe, Australia, and the like. I'm not saying whether this is good or bad, right or wrong. I'm just saying if the GOP wants to have a viable national strategy this might be a good way to go.
5. Go after the uneducated, poor, rural whites. Ike invested in huge infrastructure programs in the 1950s which made America great. We need to make America great again. Not through welfare, but government projects that create millions of jobs. Paint the Democrats as the rich, elitist party who cater to the rich while the GOP caters to average working Americans.

Now, this is quite a realignment but I believe it's probably the Republican party's best path forward. Unfortunately there is no viable strategy for them to get the minority vote so they might as well accept it. Adopt a populist message and win over the working class. Bernie would have been a great candidate to lead this political realignment and take advantage of all the voter anger that's been so prominent this election. But his big mistake was caucusing with the Democrats when all the white angry voters are on the Republican side. He called for a political revolution with huge voter turnouts - well that is happening, it's just not happening on the Democrats' side. Trump is now filling the void that Sanders left.
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While I can see where you're coming from with this, I don't think Trump would be in the position he is, without his racist rhetoric.

I really don't think someone talking about expanding government would have done well in that field. Trump can say what he wants now, because he's already gained their favor by being a bigot.
 
V

Veritigo_X

Member
I'm seeing stuff about NY Attorney General's fraud lawsuit for Trump University getting greenlit today. Could it have anything to do with that?
 
B

BoboBrazil

Member
Cerium said:
I wonder what he's got. More endorsements? Strange timing indeed.
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Could be endorsements, taxes, vp pick, shutting down kkk stuff, skipping debates. He's smart because there will be a ton of eyeballs on news channels tonight and they will all be on Trump.
 
F

Fenderputty

Banned
He's probably just planning on saying something stupid to stay in the camera so the media can't run with Rubiomentum after Rubio gets none of the delegates available today.
 
R

Roland_Gunner

Member
Thunder Monkey said:
The only perk I have being a Dem in Kansas is knowing my vote went to the pop vote total, and the chance to nominate a candidate. Because it doesn't seem to matter how hard I fight for liberals of any party identification in house, senate, or governorship elections. They always get beat.
Click to expand...

As a Dem in Texas I know those feels.
 
C

cartoon_soldier

Member
Predictions based on google trends:

Texas: Cruz, Trump, Rubio (above 20%)
Georgia: Trump, Rubio, Cruz
Alabama: Trump, Cruz, Rubio
Alaska: Trump, Rubio, Cruz
Arkansas: Trump, Rubio, Cruz
Mass: Trump, Rubio, Cruz
Minnesota: Trump, Rubio, Cruz
Oklahoma: Trump, Rubio, Cruz
Tennessee: Trump, Rubio, Cruz
Vermont: Trump, Rubio, Kasich
Virginia: Trump, Rubio, Cruz
 
Tarkus

Tarkus

Member
I talked to 30 or so people...All Trump.

Trump's signs surrounded my little voting precinct that was in an old Baptist church. How is that legal? And why was Jeb and Carly and the rest of the dropouts on the ballot? People are dumb around here and will vote for them.
 
U

User 463088

Banned
He's calling the press conference at 9:00 because its when Texas closes. It's the one state he's going to lose, and he can totally suck up the oxygen while the networks call it for Cruz.
 
T

Thunder Monkey

Banned
BoboBrazil said:
Same here. I'm going to sit out the primary, but will probably vote in the general just in case my vote matters in down ticket elections.
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I do everytime, no matter how badly they get beat.

On the off chance that "this time" the people of my state might realize the reason their local schools are closing isn't Obummer or the Dems, but the backassward Reps they keep electing into these positions.
 
B

Bowdz

Member
SourShoes said:
I talked to 30 or so people...All Trump.

Trump's signs surrounded my little voting precinct that was in an old Baptist church. How is that legal? And why was Jeb and Carly and the rest of the dropouts on the ballot? People are dumb around here and will vote for them.
Click to expand...

Where you at brah?
 
C

cartoon_soldier

Member
CNN says exit polls in 10 minutes, so you will hear about them being available soon. Soon = 30 minutes or so.

Can't find any good CNN streams, CNNgo keeps buffering :(
 
J

Jack Remington

Banned
At this point, more than any other race, I'd like to see Democrats defeat Grassley in Iowa. Fuck his obstructionary bullshit. The DMR has already printed an op-ed condemning him for it.

I don't really recognize any of the Democratic primary contenders. Looks like there's Feigen, Hogg, and Krause. Do we know if any of them are stronger than the others?

I will seriously donate a fuckton of money to whoever comes out of that primary. Fuck Grassley. Corrupt POS.
 
F

Fenderputty

Banned
SourShoes said:
I talked to 30 or so people...All Trump.

Trump's signs surrounded my little voting precinct that was in an old Baptist church. How is that legal? And why was Jeb and Carly and the rest of the dropouts on the ballot? People are dumb around here and will vote for them.
Click to expand...

Seems like a luxurious voting experience.
 
B

Basileus777

Member
SourShoes said:
I talked to 30 or so people...All Trump.

Trump's signs surrounded my little voting precinct that was in an old Baptist church. How is that legal? And why was Jeb and Carly and the rest of the dropouts on the ballot? People are dumb around here and will vote for them.
Click to expand...

The ballots are set well in advance. The state bureaucracies want nothing to do with having to update it for every drop out.
 
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