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[Box of Kittens]

There's like 600,000 black people in Detroit. Imagine that going to Clinton 89-11.

Exit polls suggest Sanders getting about 30% of the AA vote in Michigan.

 

[PBY]

Trump is killing this

 

[Basileus777]

In either scenario looks like polling was really way off in Michigan

Which is funny because the polling nailed the GOP Michigan race, especially as Cruz looks likely to end up in 2nd.

 

[cartoon_soldier]

@ForecasterEnten 59s59 seconds ago
And indeed as more of Wayne and Genesee report, Sanders is actually gaining in those counties as his overall lead stretches to 5 points.

Whyyyyyy

 

[B-Dubs]

Exit polls suggest Sanders getting about 30% of the AA vote in Michigan.

That's still more than enough to counter his current lead.

 

[eBay Huckster]

Exit polls suggest Sanders getting about 30% of the AA vote in Michigan.

Exit polls do not factor in absentee ballots in any capacity.

 

[Loudninja]

I dont know how many times the same thing has to be explain again and again.

 

[Effect]

Ugh. Going crazy here. I need to do something else.

 

[Rubenov]

B-Dubs when of you know if Detroit is in?

 

[excelsiorlef]

Can I just point out it's sad that potentially 30% AA vote for Sanders is considered an improvement to celebrate.

 

[cartoon_soldier]

Maybe Mississippi can keep Sanders below 15% giving all delegates to Clinton

 

[superdeluxe]

I need Hillary to close this thing to 2-3 points

 

[johnsmith]

Holy shit at those Rubio #s. He's dead, Jim.

 

[Basileus777]

Holy shit at those Rubio #s. He's dead, Jim.

He's basically become Jeb.

 

[eBay Huckster]

We'll presumably have a better idea of where the vote's coming from in Wayne in about 15 minutes, when the County Clerk's website updates

 

[Paskil]

I'm surprised Reddit isn't crowing about this yet. In maybe about an hour, people are going to look silly.

 

[A Human Becoming]

Holy shit at those Rubio #s. He's dead, Jim.

This is the last contest until March 15th right? His campaign must be uneasy with results tonight.

 

[Box of Kittens]

Not trying to make a call mind you, just that there's reason to suspect Clinton's margin in Detroit won't be that high.

 

[superdeluxe]

I'm surprised Reddit isn't crowing about this yet. In maybe about an hour, people are going to look silly.

Maybe they didn't want to jinx it

 

[Cheebo]

Berries got this one

 

[NeoXChaos]

Not trying to make a call mind you, just that there's reason to suspect Clinton's margin in Detroit won't be that high.

why is that?

 

[Bowdz]

I'll start believing Hillary will turn this around as soon as she actually starts closing the gap (which she's not).

 

[gaugebozo]

HARRY ENTEN 9:33 PM
I’m looking on the Wayne County clerk’s website to try to get an idea of where the vote is being reported from in Wayne County. It seems, at least as of earlier this hour, that Detroit was at 0 percent. The nearly uniformly white areas of Grosse Pointe Shores and Plymouth were at 100 percent. In other words, the percentages coming out of Wayne County right now don’t really reflect how black areas are voting.

This is likely. My mom was a poll worker in Grosse Pointe City. She said it almost all went to Kasich, but the Democrats were split.

 

[OrangeGrayBlue]

Can I just point out it's sad that potentially 30% AA vote fir Sanders is considered an improvement?

Given that Mississippi backed Hillary 89-11 or so today among black voters, I don't think it's so much an improvement on Bernie's part as it is proof that the strength of Hillary's black support is at least somewhat dependent on where you are in the country.

 

[Diablos]

Trump is going from being entertaining to making me feel sick. The fact that he would even stand a possible chance of winning the presidency is a huge risk. He is so insane. I think we're underestimating him.

 

[thefro]

This is the last contest until March 15th right? His campaign must be uneasy with results tonight.

Idaho/Hawaii later tonight

Caucus in Virgin Islands on March 10th
DC Caucus on March 12th.

 

[Officerrob]

I think Bernie's winning this

 

[A Human Becoming]

I'll start believing Hillary will turn this around as soon as she actually starts closing the gap (which she's not).

The difference is less than 5% now. If it keeps dropping she could still win.

Idaho/Hawaii later tonight

Caucus in Virgin Islands on March 10th
DC Caucus on March 12th.

Yeah I knew about the others tonight. Those other two are pretty minor.

 

[plagiarize]

While all this 'polling being way off' is super exciting (and it is), let's not forget that 538 have Sanders needing 67 of Michigan's 130 pledged delegates to be on track... and that was based on him *already being on track*. If this is close to 50:50, Clinton beats her targets yet again, and Sanders misses his, yet again. Sanders doesn't need to beat whatever the polls thought was going to happen. He needs to win enough delegates, and splitting any large state with Clinton... it doesn't do him any good.

 

[neurosisxeno]

I'll start believing Hillary will turn this around as soon as she actually starts closing the gap (which she's not).

According to CNN's prediction Bernie just shot up from 48% to a new high of 71%. He's been fluctuating between 30 and 60 since I've been watching results.

 

[Bowdz]

Trump is going from being entertaining to making me feel sick. The fact that he would even stand a possible chance of winning the presidency is a huge risk. He is so insane. I think we're underestimating him.

Huge risk for a huge reward.

Fortune favors the bold bro. - Nathan Drake

 

[excelsiorlef]

Given that Mississippi backed Hillary 89-11 or so today among black voters, I don't think it's so much an improvement on Bernie's part as it is proof that the strength of Hillary's black support is at least somewhat dependent on where you are in the country.

Point is people call him a politician for the people but he doesn't clearly do enough to try and win an important group.

It just shows how much work he actually has to do.

 

[Basileus777]

After Michigan Bernie fans will now be claiming that every poll is wrong. Look forward to it!

 

[gcubed]

I think Bernie's winning this

I'll take that bet

 

[Box of Kittens]

why is that?

Sorry, I phrased that post poorly. The "that" in "that high" was the 89-11 prediction that B-Dubs made. I should've quoted or something to make that clear.

 

[Bowdz]

Berries got this one

Yep.

While all this 'polling being way off' is super exciting (and it is), let's not forget that 538 have Sanders needing 67 of Michigan's 130 pledged delegates to be on track... and that was based on him *already being on track*. If this is close to 50:50, Clinton beats her targets yet again, and Sanders misses his, yet again. Sanders doesn't need to beat whatever the polls thought was going to happen. He needs to win enough delegates, and splitting any large state with Clinton... it doesn't do him any good.

Strong this. Remember, Bernie needs to win the remaining contests by an average of 56% to overcome Clinton. Is he going to do that in Florida? New York? California? Not a chance.

 

[PBY]

Jeremy rekt

 

[vicissitudes]

Omg STFU Jeremy

 

[eBay Huckster]

More than anything, I'm pissed off that Wayne County apparently literally makes you wait an hour between updates regarding where the votes are actually being reported from

 

[BoboBrazil]

Jeremy is a big fat mess. Noone listens to him.

 

[PBY]

Nate CohnVerified account
‏@Nate_Cohn
The updated exit poll gives Sanders a 1 point edge in Michigan.
9:52 PM - 8 Mar 2016

 

[noshten]

Can I just point out it's sad that potentially 30% AA vote for Sanders is considered an improvement to celebrate.

Why is it sad, every vote he wins from Clinton is a small victory no matter the demographic - I though he had a ceiling of hardcore Clinton supporters who won't turn?

 

[User 463088]

I too think Bernie has MI.

GG Bernie Bros.

If current margins in MS and MI hold, Hillary will increase her delegate lead by 15-18 delegates this evening.

 

[Box of Kittens]

After Michigan Bernie fans will now be claiming that every poll is wrong. Look forward to it!

I look forward to a return of unskewing polls.

 

[ugaboga232]

More than anything, I'm pissed off that Wayne County apparently literally makes you wait an hour between updates regarding where the votes are actually being reported from

Trillions toward (internet/voting) infrastructure, vote for bernie

 

[cartoon_soldier]

@Nate_Cohn 47s47 seconds ago Washington, DC
The updated exit poll gives Sanders a 1 point edge in Michigan.

 

[excelsiorlef]

Why is it sad, every vote he wins from Clinton is a small victory no matter the demographic - I though he had a ceiling of hardcore Clinton supporters who won't turn?

It's just nothing to celebrate about man.

 

[PBY]

Damn. Great GREAT Trump speech

 

[vicissitudes]

I too think Bernie has MI.

GG Bernie Bros.

If current margins in MS and MI hold, Hillary will increase her delegate lead by 15-18 delegates this evening.

I don't really understand Michigan. I thought the auto-bailout thing would really hurt Bernie, and Hillary's had a great week. ::shrug::

 

[OrangeGrayBlue]

Yep.




Strong this. Remember, Bernie needs to win the remaining contests by an average of 56% to overcome Clinton. Is he going to do that in Florida? New York? California? Not a chance.

Probably not, but could he get 52% in CA and then, say, 62% in Oregon? It's possible.