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PoliGAF 2016 |OT2| we love the poorly educated

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R

RastaMentality

Banned
plagiarize said:
While all this 'polling being way off' is super exciting (and it is), let's not forget that 538 have Sanders needing 67 of Michigan's 130 pledged delegates to be on track... and that was based on him *already being on track*. If this is close to 50:50, Clinton beats her targets yet again, and Sanders misses his, yet again. Sanders doesn't need to beat whatever the polls thought was going to happen. He needs to win enough delegates, and splitting any large state with Clinton... it doesn't do him any good.
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He already lost. There's not really much of a point discussing his targets anymore imo.
 
C

Cesare Borgia

Banned
Amanda Carpenter is one of the many reasons people in Washington can't stand Ted Cruz; she was on his staff before becoming a CNN shill. Real nice person when discussing anything outside of politics, but when she's doing her thing she is insufferable.
 
P

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
Another thing I can't stand about 538's crew: the incessant whining about races being called early. They constantly question why it is being done, but they're known for statistics--they should absolutely know why and how it happens.
 
B

brainchild

Banned
Basileus777 said:
After Michigan Bernie fans will now be claiming that every poll is wrong. Look forward to it!
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Actually, there is merit to this, which I'll be getting into a bit later, but the gist is that the methodologies are just too limited to have perfectly random sampling. There is other methodology that has proven itself to be more reliable, and it'll be interesting to see how important it becomes in the near future.

But let's just wait to see if Bernie wins first before we go there.
 
K

Knuckle Sandwich

Member
I am so tempted to buy low Hillary shares.... I won 400 tonight by buying super low Bernie No/Hillary yes and selling during the swing. Is there a chance she could win? ....AArghhh.
 
A

And_Gignac

Member
I said earlier today that I had an intuition Sanders could beat his polling in Michigan tonight, but I didn’t expect things to be quite so close. If Sanders winds up winning in Michigan, in fact, it will count as among the greatest polling errors in primary history. Clinton led by 21.3 percentage points in our final Michigan polling average. Previously, the candidate with the largest lead to lose a state in our database of well-polled primaries and caucuses was Walter Mondale, who led in New Hampshire by 17.1 percentage points but lost to Gary Hart in 1984.
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http://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blo...ial-election-2016/?#livepress-update-20072287

Poor Nate! He didnt consider #THEREVOLUTION into his algorithm. Sad!
 
G

gutter_trash

Banned
I blame Obama for being TOO SLOW on Flint to have caused a Sanders uptick in Michigan

how can Hillary defend Obama's record while his admin is way too slow to act on Flint?

there you have it
 
B

Basileus777

Member
Plinko said:
Another thing I can't stand about 538's crew: the incessant whining about races being called early. They constantly question why it is being done, but they're known for statistics--thry should absolutely know why and how it happens.
Click to expand...

It was a lot worse Saturday with them openly campaigning for the press to change how they were covering the LA race.
 
O

OrangeGrayBlue

Member
Looks like Bernie's actually pulling away from Hillary ever so slowly.

To celebrate what I was really doubtful was going to be a Bernie win tonight, I'm tossing out that tacky avatar ivysaur stuck me with ;)


Edit- yikes, mighta spoke too soon.
 
P

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
Yikes at those GOP one-on-one numbers. If Kasich/Rubio drop out, Trump is done and Cruz has this in the bag. Scary, scary scenario.
 
S

sc0la

Unconfirmed Member
Tobor said:
Isn't Michigan proportional? CNN pretending this matters when it's essentially a tie is ridiculous.
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Yeah they will probably walk away with a wash on delegates. Meanwhile Hillary ran up the score Mississipi (lol regional candidate)
 
B

Bowdz

Member
Plinko said:
Yikes at those GOP one-on-one numbers. If Kasich/Rubio drop out, Trump is done and Cruz has this in the bag.
Click to expand...

If Trump takes IL, OH, and FL and it then becomes Cruz V Trump, I have a hard time seeing Cruz making up the gap in States like NY, CA, WA, OR, or any other non Midwestern States.
 
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