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PoliGAF 2016 |OT2| we love the poorly educated

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Democrats! Fuck! Get your shit together, you idiots. You'll find a way to lose the easiest Presidential election in a generation, won't you?
 
What are you even talking about.

I think he is arguing that the longer this drags out, the more annoyingly difficult Bernie or Hillary supporters are going to be to convert to go and vote for the other candidate, against Trump, and that could cost the election.

He may also be saying that nominating Bernie could also cost the election, at least...that's how I feel.
 

A Human Becoming

More than a Member
The RCP average was Clinton +21.4.

Biggest poll average change ever.
lol you made an edit before I could point out what Nate said!
Nate Silver said:
I said earlier today that I had an intuition Sanders could beat his polling in Michigan tonight, but I didn’t expect things to be quite so close. If Sanders winds up winning in Michigan, in fact, it will count as among the greatest polling errors in primary history. Clinton led by 21.3 percentage points in our final Michigan polling average. Previously, the candidate with the largest lead to lose a state in our database of well-polled primaries and caucuses was Walter Mondale, who led in New Hampshire by 17.1 percentage points but lost to Gary Hart in 1984.
 
The City of Detroit is only a third of the population of Wayne County.

Someone said here Detroit had like 400 precincts, am I correct? We are at 641/999 reported precincts now. There are probably some precincts outside Detroit yet to report, I assume. So yeah, Detroit isnt at 0%.
 
Democrats! Fuck! Get your shit together, you idiots. You'll find a way to lose the easiest Presidential election in a generation, won't you?

Going against Trump, you're probably safest with the candidate who does well with working class whites. I don't think Trump's a threat regardless, but I would contend that Bernie has more appeal than Hillary with the few groups of voters that Trump could actually pry from the dems.
 

GnawtyDog

Banned
Still can't wrap my head around Bernie losing Massachusetts.

Not to mention, Bernie took a long time to attack Clinton and Democrats for voting for "disastrous trade-deals" - it ties perfectly to his message and is a big soundbite. The way he phrased the whole attack yesterday was masterful and it paid dividends in a state like Michigan.

Bernie has made lots of mistakes as a rookie and it's going to cost him the nomination.
 

benjipwns

Banned
Again, it's not just Detroit outstanding. It's Grand Rapids and Flint too. And parts of Lansing.

A third of Macomb is missing too.
 
Jesus, I will be shocked if Sanders wins this. Well, maybe not as shocked now as I would have been a few hours ago. What an upset! Sorry to HillaryGAF for the loss.


Maybe I should say anything yet. I don't want to jinx it. :p
 
I think he is arguing that the longer this drags out, the more annoyingly difficult Bernie or Hillary supporters are going to be to convert to go and vote for the other candidate, against Trump, and that could cost the election

We still ain't even remotely close to PUMA levels of attrition.

And Sanders cannot win a GE. It's impossible to reconcile that.Yeah, sorry. This just should have been sooooo easy.
Neither can Big Poppa, fwiw. But yes, given how many advantages hillary has, this should've been ridiculously easy.
 
Well I think I've had my fun on PredictIt.

Invested about $300 for Trump but I'm cashing out at $460.

Have fun, the rest of you! Might get back in closer to the GE if my money situation is better.
 
75% of precincts

doesn't take into account population

When they say a % of the vote is in, they're talking about precincts. Not exact number of votes.
 

Suikoguy

I whinny my fervor lowly, for his length is not as great as those of the Hylian war stallions
Wow very surprising result. 538 had Clinton at 99% to win! All polls gonna get re-scrutinised for March 15 it seems.

If this was the general election, i'd be suspicious of the results being legit.
 

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
Wayne reported again, the gap dropped a bit. Still roughly 300 counties outstanding.

No matter which way this one goes it's going to be crazy.
 

Snake

Member
I won't believe Bernie has won until 90% of Wayne County has been counted.

I wouldn't bet money on it, but I can't see how Bernie loses MI at this point. Not only are the margins not there for Hillary in her key counties, but Kent County (which contains Grand Rapids) is only 44% in and is going for Bernie big time. This is going to blunt most of the gains on the margins to be found for Hillary in Wayne County.

Nice win for Bernie if so. I'm thinking he could pull this off in Ohio too. Illinois and Pennsylvania not so much.
 

VRMN

Member
Thing is, there are many other counties out too, where sanders is winning big (kent county, Ann Arbor) are out too.

To be fair, this is by precinct rather than by raw totals. Detroit is so, so much bigger than any other city in the state. I think it's the next six biggest cities in the state combined.
 

benjipwns

Banned
Kent County is going to chew off Bernie's lead too when GR starts coming in. There's no way he holds a 25 point lead in GR proper.
 

Rubenov

Member
My faith in polls has been utterly shattered.

How does someone with a 20+ lead in polls and a 99% chance to win ends up losing.

Lost serious $$
 
First Idaho results (2.2% in): Trump 36.4%, Cruz 32.9%. Would be a big victory for Trump since there's a 20% cutoff with the delegates of those that fall below the cutoff going to the winner and since there's actually a decent amount of delegates from Idaho (32). Trump could get 20+ delegates from a small state in the west (edit: not a caucus)
 

Allard

Member
I can't say anything for Michigan and how they handle their elections, but if people think this is over because of precinct percentage you aren't looking at it right (hint precincts are not based on population). Here in Washington state for instance you could 10% swings with 85% precincts reporting all because the only county that hadn't showed up yet in a large capacity was king county, where like 1/3rd of the entire state population is at. Its closer then I was expecting to be and maybe Bernie might win, but if the larger population centers still aren't completely in yet you can't know for a fact how the percentages will end up, they could shrink, get larger, but if that large of a change in large population is still out its not over yet.
 
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