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PoliGAF 2016 |OT2| we love the poorly educated

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My faith in polls has been utterly shattered.

How does someone with a 20+ lead in polls and a 99% chance to win ends up losing.

Lost serious $$
Have we not learned this from Israel and the UK last year. Voters are all angry everywhere. That doesn't poll well
 

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
Idaho is Cruz country. Trump probably gets 3rd.
 
538's forecasts don't really mean much this primary. It's generated them a lot of page views but they maybe should've sat it out with the prediction percentages.
 

A Human Becoming

More than a Member
Whether Ruboto can win Ada county, that has Boise, will be very telling.
538's forecasts don't really mean much this primary. It's generated them a lot of page views but they maybe should've sat it out with the prediction percentages.
They've been fairly accurate with most of them. The trend I've seen on the Republican sides across states is Trump meets projections while everyone or just one person over performs.

Overall yeah, primaries hard.
 

Yoda

Member
538's forecasts don't really mean much this primary. It's generated them a lot of page views but they maybe should've sat it out with the prediction percentages.

Victory has a thousand fathers, but defeat is an orphan. When it works "of course it worked", it fails... Weelllll I HAD A GUT FEELING IN OUR SLACK CHAT <-- LOL
 

gcubed

Member
So she wins but by 2-3 instead of 20, going to still be a huge fundraising help for Bernie, and we get days of "the polls can't be trusted"
 

Allard

Member
So she wins but by 2-3 instead of 20, going to still be a huge fundraising help for Bernie, and we get days of "the polls can't be trusted"

Yeah not going to deny it was an upset even if Hilary wins, but in the end its about the delegate math, its a symbolic victory one way or the other.
 

VRMN

Member
This is more or less about a moral victory for Sanders. Bernie might net a couple delegates from a 50-48 win in Michigan. It does nothing to the delegate math.

Mississippi is actually much more important because Clinton is basically getting all of those delegates. No matter what happens in Michigan, her lead has widened tonight.

That said, this bodes well for Sanders in Ohio, which is a very similar state, if slightly more centrist from a Democratic standpoint.
 
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