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[Y2Kev]

There is no way tens of thousands of Democrats strategically voted in the Michigan primary.

7% is very material on 1.5mm total votes!

 

[theprodigy]

from 538:

This, from our friends at ABC News, is interesting: “Eight in 10 voters in the Democratic contest in Michigan were more interested in an experienced candidate than in an outsider,” and although in the past Clinton has won this group by seven out of 10, her share in Michigan of this demographic is “just more than half” right now.

Could it be that some “main line” Michigan Dems — the exit polls say that seven out of 10 voters in the primary identify this way — decided that Clinton probably had things sewn up and decided to go with bit of a “heartstrings vote” in the form of Sanders? Maybe.

*cough* Cheebo *cough*

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

He's the most potato-like of the Republican noms?

It's P-O-T-A-T-O-E

 

[Basileus777]

There is no way tens of thousands of Democrats strategically voted in the Michigan primary.

Yep. They just wanted to vote for Trump.

 

[starmud]

Either way the gain from MI on the dem side is mute, though it's going to make the next few outings interesting given how bad polling was :|

 

[PBY]

Trump doing okay in Idaho

 

[Orbis Tabula]

WHAT IS GOING ON!?
This is so exciting!

 

[Bowdz]

Bernie's got this. #TeamHilldawg #BernedinMichigan

Also, fucking lol at the AnastasiaDate. com (aka mail order brides).

 

[A Human Becoming]

There is no way tens of thousands of Democrats strategically voted in the Michigan primary.

I don't know if it's strategic per say, but it's worth considering "7 percent of Michigan Republican primary voters were Democrats; by contrast, 3 percent of voters in the Michigan Democratic primary were Republicans."

 

[benjipwns]

I trust this over any Florida polling:

 

[superdeluxe]

So she wins but by 2-3 instead of 20, going to still be a huge fundraising help for Bernie, and we get days of "the polls can't be trusted"

Hopefully this rallies the Clinton voters to vote for Clinton going forward instead of trying to play games

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

Rubio vs. 20% in Idaho is something to watch.

 

[teiresias]

The only moral victory Bernie should be claiming is aiding in a general election victory by bowing out and letting Hillary get on with GE framing and campaigning rather than continuing to stroke his own ego . . . you know, if it's really about keeping progress moving rather than letting the country fall into the pits of complete Republican government control

 

[And_Gignac]

from 538:



*cough* Cheebo *cough*

probably 10 people did that. Thats like the most dumb explanation pollsters can give to save face. Politics is about emotions, everyone vote with their hearts.

 

[NihonTiger90]

from 538:



*cough* Cheebo *cough*

My mom voted Bernie because she votes Dem and does not like Clinton.

My dad voted Bernie because he is a Republican and wants what he perceives to be the weaker, easier to defeat candidate vs. Donald Trump.

So it's not all Dem's voting with their heart strings. Or Dems voting this way at all.

 

[danm999]

probably 10 people did that. Thats like the most dumb explanation pollsters can give to save face. Politics is about emotions, everyone vote with their hearts.

Yeah strategic voting doesn't seem to explain the gap between the polls and (even if Clinton edges a win here) the outcome.

 

[VRMN]

I don't know if it's strategic per say, but it's worth considering "7 percent of Michigan Republican primary voters were Democrats; by contrast, 3 percent of voters in the Michigan Democratic primary were Republicans."

In a race this close, this is absolutely relevant to explaining the result, but it doesn't actually wipe away the kind of margins polling was indicating would be the case. We're probably looking at a combination of complacency, some of these "heart strings" voters, bad polling demographics due to a lack of competitive Democratic primaries in Michigan, and cross over voters. I would assume that Republican crossovers would be Sanders votes, due to a perception among Republicans that Sanders would be easier to beat in a general.

 

[OrangeGrayBlue]

I think Bernie's still going to squeak this out. His lead's back up to 28,000.

 

[NYCmetsfan]

It won't, because there are no winner-take-all states on the Dem side.

Still. Does the margins change in these states?

 

[HUELEN10]

I just am watching the CBSN Marco Coverage from Ponte Vedra this morning...

Not a bad speech, I must say.

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

53 seconds ago
SOS results: With 81 precincts reporting: Cruz jumps ahead. Cruz: 38.7%, Trump: 35.4%, Rubio: 14.3% #idelex @ktvb

Idaho needs to consistently report its polls, the three trackers are giving out pretty different results.

 

[Mario]

Whats the rough delegate split for Michigan going to be if Bernie gets 50%+ and wins by a couple of points?

I have tried to look online and am... confused.

 

[And_Gignac]

The only moral victory Bernie should be claiming is aiding in a general election victory by bowing out and letting Hillary get on with GE framing and campaigning rather than continuing to stroke his own ego . . . you know, if it's really about keeping progress moving rather than letting the country fall into the pits of complete Republican government control

Is not his fault Clinton is a such a weak candidate...or maybe Sanders is just that extraordinary and all this drama will help her once he endorses her in the generals.

 

[ivysaur12]

Still. Does the margins change in these states?

Probably not enough to make that big of a difference.

 

[B-Dubs]

Cheebo, I blame you for all of this!

 

[Rafa=FedKilla]

Looks like Cruz will win Idaho, their frackers are crazy though.

 

[NYCmetsfan]

probably 10 people did that. Thats like the most dumb explanation pollsters can give to save face. Politics is about emotions, everyone vote with their hearts.

We've had multiple people in this thread admit that.

 

[Y2Kev]

Trump ahead of Rubio on Idaho is good .

 

[Macho Madness]

Official Idaho vote tally: http://www.sos.idaho.gov/elect/results/2016/PresidentialPrimary/ENR/all_counties.html

 

[benjipwns]

Don't believe Cheebs, if anything decides the Democratic Primary, it's my vote.

 

[FiggyCal]

Trump overtook Rubio in Idaho. lol

 

[VRMN]

Whats the rough delegate split for Michigan going to be if Bernie gets 50%+ and wins by a couple of points?

I have tried to look online and am... confused.

It is confusing, but basically a 50-48 win is going to result in a rough delegate split. I'd guess 75-72 for Sanders, or a net of +3.

 

[And_Gignac]

YAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAS QUEEN AP CALLING IT FOR BERNIE

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

If Rubio falls below 20% in Idaho, that will be a good bonus for Cruz.

Trump and Cruz will continue to get actual delegates while Rubio cries in the car.

 

[soul creator]

Have there been any numbers/polls in any of the primaries so far about religious voters in the Democratic primaries/caucuses? I'm curious to see how this breaks down with Bernie and Hillary.

edit: every link I search for breaks down religious voters in the Republican primary, but not the Democratic one.

 

[Makai]

Sanders won. Nice.

 

[HUELEN10]

FEEL

THE

BERN

 

[Bowdz]

WHERE IS YOUR GOD NOW?

 

[OrangeGrayBlue]

:') I'll take it.

 

[Brinbe]

His lead grew a bit.

Good for Bernie. He's gonna stay in it and push her to become a better/stronger candidate.

 

[Y2Kev]

Agree with the call. She can't make up the margin with the vote remaining.

 

[A Human Becoming]

The Guardian and New York Times call Michigan for Bernie! Hurrah!

 

[VRMN]

WHERE IS YOUR GOD NOW?

Florida?

 

[Macho Madness]

NYTimes calls it for Bernie.

 

[gcubed]

WHERE IS YOUR GOD NOW?

Still winning?

 

[Makai]

The more you learn, the more you Bern

 

[thefro]

Idaho's going to be fairly close I think... Trump's up in Boise/Boise suburbs.

 

[NeoXChaos]

P Politics ‏@AP_Politics 2m2 minutes ago
BREAKING: Bernie Sanders wins the Democratic presidential primary in Michigan. @AP race call at 11:30 p.m. EST. #Election2016 #APracecall

good job bernie people

 

[Ziltoidia 9]

Key things to look going forward are, does he get a bounce out of this from Ohio, Missouri, etc. After next Tuesday, the south is over with, and things swing to Sanders favor, and he can eventually chip away at the pledged delegate count.

 

[teiresias]

Is not his fault Clinton is a such a weak candidate...or maybe Sanders is just that extraordinary and all this drama will help her once he endorses her in the generals.

If all it takes to be a "strong" candidate in this environment and with the young people of this country is to tell them exactly what they want to hear without regard for how it will actually be done, then go ahead and be strong as the castle falls around you.