nature boy
Member
Finally a poll the media can use to say "close race"!.
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PoliGAF 2016 |OT7| Notorious R.B.G. Plans NZ Tour
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User 463088
Banned
Yesterday the NYT characterized the race as "closer than expected."
cartoon_soldier
Member
Don't dismiss a particular poll. Don't believe a particular poll. Average out out. Clinton be good.
teruterubozu
Member
Trump's Operation Flip visits Maine today. lol.
Yooooo
Battleground bloodbath: Clinton leads Trump in 7 swing states
http://www.politico.com/blogs/swing...2016/06/clinton-trump-swing-state-poll-224923
Battleground bloodbath: Clinton leads Trump in 7 swing states
http://www.politico.com/blogs/swing...2016/06/clinton-trump-swing-state-poll-224923
bigwinnerx
Member
PA seems high and VA seems low. So, somewhere in the middle probably.
cartoon_soldier
Member
ME-2 pool had him ahead by one.
How nice, they're waving at Bernie!
Who?
Good read: Trump and te Art of seduction.. Also details one of his lesser known business scams.
b-b-but PA is gonna flip
Why are so many poligaffers thinking that Pennsylvania is actually going to flip or be a close race
I do worry generally speaking that because Clinton is also a rather polarizing figure, that voters might just get turned off and vote Johnson or Stein, enough to have an impact on the electoral map if enough people would be inclined to vote that way
Plinko
Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
Brexit tanking the economy could flip it pretty quick, but I don't think that's realistic.
Fuck no. PA is true blue.
User 463088
Banned
Because there are a lot of white people in Pennsylvania. It and Ohio are his best chances. Doesn't mean they're great but he has a shot. Just like there's a chance a lion will eat me for breakfast. It's not completely likely, but within the realm of possible.
* I was originally going to say bear, but then I realized that might work for me...
teruterubozu
Member
New Portland Press Herald poll has Clinton leading 42 - 35, but unfavorables are very high for both candidates. After all Maine did vote overwhelming for Bernie and Cruz.
bigwinnerx
Member
I grew up in Pennsyltucky and drove through there this week and there are way more hand drawn black paint on white plywood TRUMP 2016 signs than I thought I'd see.
They're not on the 538 rankings, but using experienced opinion pollsters and the methodology seems good. Maybe a few too many Dems in the sample, but +5 in party ID for those states isn't a huge outlier there.
nature boy
Member
Wow.
http://www.politico.com/story/2016/06/obama-campaign-clinton-
Until his Farewell Address in January.
...but let's give him the honor of nominating Scalia's replacement if he wins in November.
Fuck you Mitch.
I can't stand Hillary (I don't like Bernie, either) but I'll give her campaign money if she puts out some Elizabeth Warren merchandise for sale.
teruterubozu
Member
In the meantime, you can order a Fauxcahontas shirt from conservative radio:
http://howiecarrshow.com/product/fauxcahontas-elizabeth-warren-graphic-tee/
You've gotta be really drinking the koolaid to wear one of these in the wild.
Joe Shlabotnik
Banned
Trump's campaign has been spamming Icelandic and Australian MPs too, lol.
Yep.
What more could he possibly want? They've already bent over backwards for him. You don't get the ENTIRE platform when you've lost.
His reasoning for staying in no longer makes sense. Anything to keep from admitting you lost, I guess.
Bernie's going to end up leading the anti-administration forces in the 2018 midterms under some foolish guise of trying to push Hillary further left.
User 463088
Banned
Has she offered him the nomination yet? That might make him be quiet. Maybe.
These are great in theory, but are much, much wider leads than most other polls have been showing in those states.
This doesn't seem like great news to be honest...he gets way too much support by just doing nothing.
His convention speech is gonna be one for the books. I'm legit hyped for it. All of the others I'm sure will be fine and good, but i think Obama's will be the one to watch.
Aaron Strife
Banned
Goddaaaamn those swing state polls.
I'm going to choose not to put too much stock into them out of caution, but if she really does lead by that much there's no way Portman, Toomey, Rubio etc outrun the top of the ballot enough to win.
I'm going to choose not to put too much stock into them out of caution, but if she really does lead by that much there's no way Portman, Toomey, Rubio etc outrun the top of the ballot enough to win.
Yeah but numbers don't help me feel better, ya know? The only number I see is "Press 2 for Spanish" and that's a number I don't like!
TheLostBigBoss
Banned
Wut
Jesus fucking christ, he may not be the nominee if they start openly bad mouthing him like this
Those polls seem to be extreme outliers from what I can see in other polls.
No way she is that ahead of Trump in some of those states.
Well, first, there is an absolute floor of support that is virtually impossible to crash through, probably in the low 40s. Second, it's not necessarily about polls right now, it's about establishing a narrative and a ceiling on the opponent; basically, what Obama did to Romney in 2012, and what Bush did to Kerry in 2004. It's made worse when the opponent continues to reinforce this narrative.
In short, you don't win a war by bombing planes on the runway, but you gain a decisive advantage. We don't know what will happen, but zero opposition ads at a critical time while opinions are beginning to harden is as much as you could ask for.
tl;dr: ads : ice cream :: opinions : magic shell
Lol at 1% of AA vote. "Look at my African American" indeed, Trump.
The Hispanic spread makes me sad and reiterates what I keep saying: just voting against Trump isn't enough to get Hispanics, much less motivated to get registered and show up.
Edit: I guess I should calm down and note that 33% of Latinos still seems too close and that as we've seen this election , Latinos are really hard to poll accurately.
Youth trends bode well. Especially once Warren and Obama get in gear.
The Hispanic spread makes me sad and reiterates what I keep saying: just voting against Trump isn't enough to get Hispanics, much less motivated to get registered and show up.
Edit: I guess I should calm down and note that 33% of Latinos still seems too close and that as we've seen this election , Latinos are really hard to poll accurately.
Youth trends bode well. Especially once Warren and Obama get in gear.
Well shit, guess I might have to drive a few hours.
Trump just tweeted the Q poll. Amazing.
https://twitter.com/realdonaldtrump/status/748163921383723008
https://twitter.com/realdonaldtrump/status/748163921383723008
balladofwindfishes
Member
It's not often you see a politician hype up a poll they're losing in
ItWasMeantToBe19
Banned
I remember when America, which has not yet begun to suffer much at all from inequality, elected Ronald Reagan, who became famous in politics for opposing the Civil Rights Act.
It's almost like racism doesn't have to come from neoliberalism.
It's almost like racism doesn't have to come from neoliberalism.
ISWThunder
Member
How can you not boast about getting a whole 40% in a poll? It's a really huge accomplishment.
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