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[metalslimer]

Yeah, I'd love to see his map. To go beyond 347, Hillary would have to pretty much make the next tier of swing states reachable.


Damn, I just felt a bullet graze my ear. This year could've been disastrous.
(Although her Florida numbers are looking impressively stubborn..)

Kasich was never winning the primary though. She would have taken down Jeb! if he had managed to come out. Even against the golden boy Ryan it looks like she would hold in the necessary states

For some reason, people like that fake folksy charm that Kasich has. Fortunately he will never make it through a republican primary. Then again, I expect republicans to institute their own superdelegate system after this election which could be very dangerous in 2020 if they play it the right way.

 

[Emarv]

350+ is way too optimistic at this point IMO. She would have to win NC and either Arizona, Missouri, Indiana, or Georgia. It's clear that it the race is currently not remotely close though.

I wonder when the Senate will roll over on Garland . . .

October? Sneak it in during the heat of the campaign.

 

[Aaron Strife]

Quinnipac says it's a dead heat? Lol

Quinnipiac has put out a lot of weird polls this cycle with the intent of damaging Hillary. They were hocking polls early on that would show her down 5 and then Biden up like 20. I don't care what her approval rating is, there's no way there's an electability gap that large.

350+ is way too optimistic at this point IMO. She would have to win NC and either Arizona, Missouri, Indiana, or Georgia. It's clear that it the race is currently not remotely close though.

I wonder when the Senate will roll over on Garland . . .

Polling has her quite close in AZ, and in NC where she's either tied or beating Trump by 10 points (lol). I think those four are all in play, in the order of

AZ > GA >>> MO >>>>> IN

And there could be some surprises like the Dakotas, Mississippi, Montana, Alaska, Utah etc. - particularly the 3 EV states as big swings can happen with so few voters.

 

[NeoXChaos]

KingK and Macho is IN going to be in play?

Seems like in order of possible play is: AZ > GA >>> MO >>>>> IN

 

[Spoiled Milk]

The solution is equally straightforward, I think.

I think you're going to say "stop killing social welfare programs", and I agree, but it's hard to sell that to racists when they think it's all going to _insert_minority_here_.

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

One thing that was amusing, however, was Vox's Communist editor criticizing Atheist political campaigns for naively believing that without religion, people will become mostly good... When he argues that without capitalism (and rude liberals), racist political campaigns won't succeed.

New Atheists and Modern Socialists hate each other so much despite both being populated almost entirely by white young men with terrible social skills and with both groups having one solution to every single problem.

Vox's Communist writer also is against liberals being smug to Trump supporters but has supported causing riots that could murder Trump supporters so idk?

 

[Wilsongt]

Quinnipiac has put out a lot of weird polls this cycle with the intent of damaging Hillary. They were hocking polls early on that would show her down 5 and then Biden up like 20. I don't care what her approval rating is, there's no way there's an electability gap that large.


Polling has her quite close in AZ, and in NC where she's either tied or beating Trump by 10 points (lol). I think those four are all in play, in the order of

AZ > GA >>> MO >>>>> IN

And there could be some surprises like the Dakotas, Mississippi, Montana, Alaska, Utah etc. - particularly the 3 EV states as big swings can happen with so few voters.

So basically HA Goodman is furiously fapping, typing up a new article, and making a video.

 

[kirblar]

Quinnipiac has put out a lot of weird polls this cycle with the intent of damaging Hillary. They were hocking polls early on that would show her down 5 and then Biden up like 20. I don't care what her approval rating is, there's no way there's an electability gap that large.

Right on cue a trump supporter puts it up in OT.

 

[Dubbedinenglish]

I wonder when the Senate will roll over on Garland . . .

Guaranteed as a lame duck congress. I think we'll see a wave of "compromise" during that time too.

 

[Brinbe]

If things truly get rolling, she might be close to 400 than 350.

And the Q poll isn't worth worrying about. If the best they can do is highlight a poll in which she's still winning, you know you're in a pretty solid position.

 

[hawk2025]

If you are feeling down, this will melt your heart:

https://www.quora.com/Is-Barack-Obama-a-nice-person-when-there-isnt-a-camera-around

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

One thing that does confuse me a great deal about Bernie Stans on Twitter is that they simultaneous say Islam does not cause terrorism while saying that Wahhabism does cause terrorism.

They just do this to take potshots against the US supporting Saudi Arabia, but they're simultaneously defending Islam from charges of causing terrorism while saying Islam causes terrorism and it's really confusing.

(Obviously the US deserves to be criticized for supporting Saudi Arabia, the argument is just confusing).

 

[Yellowtail]

Yeah, I'd love to see his map. To go beyond 347, Hillary would have to pretty much make the next tier of swing states reachable.


Damn, I just felt a bullet graze my ear. This year could've been disastrous.
(Although her Florida numbers are looking impressively stubborn..)

She's always been uncommonly strong in Florida. It's the one state she routinely outperforms Bernie in general election matchups, even when he bests her everywhere else, and the same was true in 2008, when she always polled much better than Obama against McCain there. It's one reason the GOP were so desperate from very early on to have Rubio or Jeb on the ticket.

 

[Ophelion]

See, I don't have a problem with the basic premise of Bernie's op-ed. Globalization has disproportionately benefitted the upper classes in the US and Europe at the expense of the working class, and the Brexit vote is, in part, due to misdirected anger there. And there is a danger to Democrats if we don't recognize this.

But his proposed solutions are not going to work. Those manufacturing jobs aren't coming back, so fundamentally he's making promises he can't keep. We as a society need to figure out a way to deal with globalization and make its benefits more equitable, not try and find a way to turn back the clock to an economy that is never going to exist again (and which is largely being romanticized in any event).

But I suppose it's easier to just say "Hillary-GAF thinks Bernie is racist."

This was my general reaction to that op-ed as well. I went in interested in what he had to say and was like, "Ok, seems reasonable so far. True, true, true..." But then, he started railing against free trade and talking about bringing back manufacturing jobs and I was like, "Nope, sorry. Not on board now. That's never going to happen."

In this interview, Clinton I think rightly described it as a cruel fantasy, that we can't wind the clock back on stuff like that. The genie's already out of the bottle. Trying to go back will only do further and greater damage as we have quite clearly seen in the last few days.

And yeah, I don't think Bernie is racist. I think Bernie has identified something that very seriously ails the country and the world, but has confused a symptom for the source and wouldn't know how to cure either if it was presented to him on a silver platter with a big red bow. Not that I probably would either, but I'm not running for president with this as the bedrock of my platform.

In fairness, the proposed solutions Clinton puts forward in the linked interview to me feel like uncertain half-steps rather than any sort of out and out solution. I'd gladly take half-steps over something proven to do actual damage to the national and global economy, however.

Edit: Also that interview has a comments section. I know this goes without saying but DO NOT READ. It will just make you sad.

 

[Emarv]

No way she gets close to 400, guys. I'm a believer in a possible 7-12 point popular vote landslide, but I just don't see the state path for that kind of electoral split.

 

[KingK]

KingK and Macho is IN going to be in play?

Seems like in order of possible play is: AZ > GA >>> MO >>>>> IN

I would agree with your ranking there. I think Indiana might go to Clinton, but it's a big might. And I mostly just say that because Obama was able to win.

But Trump really appeals to the type of republican in this state from my experience, so I don't think he'll have trouble getting turnout from his voters here.

 

[HylianTom]

No way she gets close to 400, guys. I'm a believer in a possible 7-12 point popular vote landslide, but I just don't see the state path for that kind of electoral split.

I don't think so either. I think Arizona is her ceiling. But at the same time, I wouldn't be surprised if the race tightens back to 5%.

(That Plouffe tweet gave me warm fuzzies more for the probability of victory than for the margin itself. I'd love another 2008-type Election Night where we start off knowing she'll win, only to wonder about how the marginal states will fall..)

 

[Holmes]

The olds and the latinos in Florida love Hillary. I can envision some Romney -> Clinton voters in places like Palm Beach, Miami-Dade, Tampa and Orlando. It's harder to envision an Obama -> Trump voter in Florida.

 

[mo60]

If things truly get rolling, she might be close to 400 than 350.

And the Q poll isn't worth worrying about. If the best they can do is highlight a poll in which she's still winning, you know you're in a pretty solid position.

I see her having a chance of beating her husband's best EV result in 1996 if she can get a few red states. I'm thinking the EV for the winner which is definitely going to be Hilary at this point will be over 360EV's and maybe even over 400EV's.

 

[Slayven]

It isn't legal in the slightest. Like, not at all.

It is Triple Dog Illegal

We have a weekly, fairly liberal paper where I live that has a section for rant and rave. Basically, a bunch of people call or email and they print some of them. Normally, it's a lot of racist and sexist bullshit. Including people supporting Trump, insulting Hillary, Obama, etc.

One said that he looks forward to the Republicans losin because they aren't supporting trump. Gigglesnort

I love a good local rants and raves section. People be crazy

They polled Kasich and Ryan too.

https://ballotpedia.org/Ballotpedia's_battleground_poll,_2016

I don't believe those Ryan numbers, dude folds when there is a stiff wind, let along facing some real heat

 

[Veritigo_X]

Y2Kev exposed as a Hillary shill in the OT and conveniently the thread gets locked.

hmmmmmm

 

[Slayven]

Y2Kev exposed as a Hillary shill in the OT and conveniently the thread gets locked.

hmmmmmm

Maybe we need to ban Y2Kev from threads until we find out what is going on. They are not sending their best Y2Kevs to threads.

 

[pigeon]

I think you're going to say "stop killing social welfare programs", and I agree, but it's hard to sell that to racists when they think it's all going to _insert_minority_here_.

That's fine in America, we already know that racists only get 30% of the vote. Just win the rest.

For the UK it's a little bit harder and I admit I don't have a good solution because I don't know enough.

 

[pigeon]

Modern Socialists remind me of New Atheists.

People that apply their philosophy and one idea to literally every problem in the world. FFS, Piketty's last paper was "how inequality is the cause of ISIS."

I'm an anti-domestic violence voter, but I'm not going to explain Brexit with domestic violence. Socialists and New Atheists should show some restrain as well...

This is not a particularly good argument from somebody who argues that racism is the cause all the political problems in the US and UK. And I say that as somebody who mostly agrees!

 

[Dubbedinenglish]

Maybe we need to ban Y2Kev from threads until we find out what is going on. They are not sending their best Y2Kevs to threads.

Really nasty people this Y2Kev. We have to fight fire with fire and use Y2Kev on Y2Kev.

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

This is not a particularly good argument from somebody who argues that racism is the cause all the political problems in the US and UK. And I say that as somebody who mostly agrees!

Politifact: Mostly True

 

[Slayven]

Really nasty people this Y2Kev. We have to fight fire with fire and use Y2Kev on Y2Kev.

Y2kev was cheering in the streets when Mighty Number 9 was launched, I seen it with my own eyes

 

[Holmes]

Really nasty people this Y2Kev. We have to fight fire with fire and use Y2Kev on Y2Kev.

 

[Retromelon]

Bill Clinton duped by NDA flouting secret service agent
An aghast Hillary finds out what Bill did while her mother was in the hospital

 

[Spoiled Milk]

That's fine in America, we already know that racists only get 30% of the vote. Just win the rest.

For the UK it's a little bit harder and I admit I don't have a good solution because I don't know enough.

Racists with bad hairstyles and absolutely no filter get 30% (isn't this more like 40% at least?) of the vote. But racists who are charming and masters of the dog whistle...

 

[Holmes]

Pissed that the Obama/Clinton rally is on the 5th. I won't be able to catch it, I have my green card interview that day.

 

[Sianos]

I think you're going to say "stop killing social welfare programs", and I agree, but it's hard to sell that to racists when they think it's all going to _insert_minority_here_.

You've hit the crux of the problem, and why I think the "Democrats left behind poor white people" rhetoric has some nasty implications.

I never see any solutions proposed for how to convince poor whites that welfare isn't shameful, that sometimes needing psychological help and a support system is natural and human... but I do feel a certain burning implication from the accusers about what must be done to "get back the poor white people" every time.

 

[Box of Kittens]

That's fine in America, we already know that racists only get 30% of the vote. Just win the rest.

For the UK it's a little bit harder and I admit I don't have a good solution because I don't know enough.

This is why I tend to think the best way for Democrats to push for policies that benefit the working class is by sticking with the current coalition.

 

[Teggy]

Pissed that the Obama/Clinton rally is on the 5th. I won't be able to catch it, I have my green card interview that day.

You may want to reconsider. They don't show Canadian Big Brother on US television.

 

[SheSaidNo]

One thing that helped in the past with the white working class not falling prey to racism as an easy solution was being in a union. The integration of the union helped to combat racism. They weren't perfect of course, and some were structurally racist, but they did help. Not sure if they are ever coming back however

 

[sphagnum]

Modern Socialists remind me of New Atheists.

People that apply their philosophy and one idea to literally every problem in the world. FFS, Piketty's last paper was "how inequality is the cause of ISIS."

I'm an anti-domestic violence voter, but I'm not going to explain Brexit with domestic violence. Socialists and New Atheists should show some restrain as well...

It's almost like things are interconnected with each other!

 

[Emarv]

I do some part-time EMS work, so I'm stuck with 1-3 random partners for up to 36 hours at time.

New partner today, going on to the group about "intercepted Benghazi emails. She should be in handcuffs. More coverup like her killing Vince Foster, etc."


SEND HELP, GAF.

 

[Box of Kittens]

Racists with bad hairstyles and absolutely no filter get 30% (isn't this more like 40% at least?) of the vote. But racists who are charming and masters of the dog whistle...

Hey, he only managed 43% of the vote in 1968.

Spoiler

Please don't ask about 1972.

 

[Sirpopopop]

I do some part-time EMS work, so I'm stuck with 1-3 random partners for up to 36 hours at time.

New partner today, going on to the group about "intercepted Benghazi emails. She should be in handcuffs. More coverup like her killing Vince Foster, etc."


SEND HELP, GAF.

Ask for some receipts.

 

[Teggy]

OMG, too salty, need water.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NAw7dLYxMCg&feature=youtu.be

 

[HylianTom]

OMG, too salty, need water.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NAw7dLYxMCg&feature=youtu.be

I dunno.. I got some pretty perverse enjoyment out of that.. 😂

 

[thefro]

538 Model is Out!

80%!

Edit: Okay that's Polls-Only, Polls-plus is 73.6%

 

[thcsquad]

This is not a particularly good argument from somebody who argues that racism is the cause all the political problems in the US and UK. And I say that as somebody who mostly agrees!

That's true.

My problems with him on Brexit are twofold:

1. Ignoring xenophobia is just one problem

2. It's not completely wrong to bring up globalism, because encouraging immigration is part of globalism. But in this election cycle, Bernie has tried to present himself as pro-immigration. He's not anti-globalism in that way; his anti-globalism has focused on trade policy. And I just don't see free trade as having any factor in Brexit.

This is actually worse for Bernie, because it stinks of political opportunism that he and his base try so hard to present as irrelevant to them. He supports immigration when it's politically convenient for him, and cynically conflates anti-trade with anti-immigration when it suits him.

 

[Emarv]

Texas is only +5 on 538's model?

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

Nate says Trump has a less than 2% chance of getting >50% of the popular vote.

 

[balladofwindfishes]

1.3% for Johnson seems about right. The Libertarians got .9% in 2012, and I think they'll grab some additional people this year.

 

[hipsterpants]

My fine state of Missourah right at that 50%.

I want to believe.

 

[Spoiled Milk]

I don't want Hillary to keep moving left. I want her to start moving center so that she can attract corporatists and steal business away from Republicans forever. If that means we have to eject our populists and socialists, I'm all on board.

 

[hawk2025]

I don't want Hillary to keep moving left. I want her to start moving center so that she can attract corporatists and steal business away from Republicans forever. If that means we have to eject our populists and socialists, I'm all on board.

I agree, but I would never say it! There's a technocratic path to wealth redistribution that ignores the fallacies and lack of plan of the further left. Business also needs to understand that they have to deal with a different tax structure and a significantly higher minimum wage.

Er, I mean, I totally disagree! Rawr!

 

[CCS]

I don't want Hillary to keep moving left. I want her to start moving center so that she can attract corporatists and steal business away from Republicans forever. If that means we have to eject our populists and socialists, I'm all on board.

I agree. Fuck purity tests, just win.