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PoliGAF 2016 |OT7| Notorious R.B.G. Plans NZ Tour

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D

Dash_Riprock

Member
nature boy said:
Wow.

imrs.php
Click to expand...

There is a reason Fox is the #1 cable news station. Libs get their pick, Repubs have only one place where they show "The Truth."
 
T

TestOfTide

Banned
Dash_Riprock said:
I thought Bradley effect was only for White vs non-White candidates? And also, given that Obama won both his elections more or less in line with poll numbers I thought the entire notion of a "Bradley Affect" was discredited, or at least no longer true anymore.
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The Bradley Effect is a valid point in this election because Trump is so toxic that obviously a lot of his supporters are aware of that and thus won't be open about supporting him.
 
W

whyamihere

Banned
The DCCC seems to be taking the House more seriously, and has added the following races to its "Red 2 Blue" program:

Shelli Yoder (IN-09)
Anna Throne-Holst (NY-01)
Tom Suozzi (NY-03)
Zephyr Teachout (NY-19)
Mike Derrick (NY-21)

It's also added the following races to its "Emerging Races" list:

Steve Lindbeck (AK-AL)
Matt Heinz (AZ-02)
Emilio Huerta (CA-21)
Doug Applegate (CA-49)
Jay Sidie (KS-03)
Paul Clements (MI-06)
Suzanna Shkreli (MI-08)
Christina Hartman (PA-16)
Fran Person (SC-05)
Jane Dittmar (VA-05)

Key Takeaways on the 2016 House Battlefield:

The House battlefield consists of more than 65 competitive races.

There are Democrats on the ballot in nearly 80 Republican-held districts overall.

There are 48 districts in the DCCC’s Red to Blue Program.

Republican Recruitment Fails: The NRCC has failed to mount credible challengers in the vast majority of the 11 Frontline districts. The most “competitive” of these districts is ranked Tossup/Tilt Democrat, with the rest considered Lean and Safe Democratic seats. It’s clear that Republicans are the most vulnerable incumbents in the House.

Democrats are in great shape in open seats - always a top target. There are Democratic candidates in all 10 of the top targeted Republican-held open seats. There are also strong Democrats running in all Democratic-held open seats.

House battlefield is shifting in Democrats’ favor:

 First, Toss-up or Lean Democratic districts, already considered prime pick-up opportunities, are now leaning in the Democrats’ favor. Ex: TX-23, IL-10, FL-26

 Second, the competitive battlefield pushes into Toss-up and Lean Republican districts, with strong candidates in place ready to challenge weak incumbents. These races are now undeniably competitive. Ex: NJ-05, UT-04, CA-25.

 Third, the shift means Democrats are competing in Lean or Likely Republican districts where we have not mounted credible challenges before. Ex: FL-07, MN-03, KS-03, NY-22.
Click to expand...
 
T

TheLostBigBoss

Banned
whyamihere said:
The DCCC seems to be taking the House more seriously, and has added the following races to its "Red 2 Blue" program:

Shelli Yoder (IN-09)
Anna Throne-Holst (NY-01)
Tom Suozzi (NY-03)
Zephyr Teachout (NY-19)
Mike Derrick (NY-21)

It's also added the following races to its "Emerging Races" list:

Steve Lindbeck (AK-AL)
Matt Heinz (AZ-02)
Emilio Huerta (CA-21)
Doug Applegate (CA-49)
Jay Sidie (KS-03)
Paul Clements (MI-06)
Suzanna Shkreli (MI-08)
Christina Hartman (PA-16)
Fran Person (SC-05)
Jane Dittmar (VA-05)
Click to expand...

I refuse to get my hopes up with the house

it's not worth the heartbreak
 
A

Azzanadra

Member
TestOfTide said:
Since Bernie endorsed, we can't call him The High Sparrow anymore. Who do we call him now?

- Jorah?
- Daario?
- Grey (Haired) Worm?
- Senator Aemon?
- Khal Bernoe?
- Tyrion Sanders?
Click to expand...

Lol, why High Sparrow? Bernie is the least religious guy who ever ran for president. He comes off as an atheist/agnostic who sidesteps the question after time he religion is asked about because sadly, America won't put a godless man in the oval office.

No godless man may sit the seastone chair- I mean in the Oval Office...
 
R

RustyNails

Member
Azzanadra said:
Lol, why High Sparrow? Bernie is the least religious guy who ever ran for president. He comes off as an atheist/agnostic who sidesteps the question after time he religion is asked about because sadly, America won't put a godless man in the oval office.

No godless man may sit the seastone chair- I mean in the Oval Office...
Click to expand...
Switch religion with idealogical purity. Other than that, both claim to be working for the little man, denounce government and hate the rich.
 
H

hawk2025

Member
Azzanadra said:
Lol, why High Sparrow? Bernie is the least religious guy who ever ran for president. He comes off as an atheist/agnostic who sidesteps the question after time he religion is asked about because sadly, America won't put a godless man in the oval office.

No godless man may sit the seastone chair- I mean in the Oval Office...
Click to expand...


There are also no dragons in the real world and Hillary Clinton is not, in fact, immune to fire.

Just Republican fire
 
H

HylianTom

Banned
Dash_Riprock said:
I thought Bradley effect was only for White vs non-White candidates? And also, given that Obama won both his elections more or less in line with poll numbers I thought the entire notion of a "Bradley Affect" was discredited, or at least no longer true anymore.
Click to expand...
Maybe "Shy Trumpy" would be the better descriptor? (borrowing from the Brits' Shy Tory phenomenon..)
 
S

Spoiled Milk

Banned
Liberal rag tries to tell conservatives how to run their party

NYTimes: G.O.P.’s Brightest Stars Not in the Mix as Donald Trump Picks a Running Mate said:
As Donald J. Trump prepares to select a running mate, he has whittled the list of potential partners to a slim few, including Newt Gingrich, a former House speaker, and Gov. Mike Pence of Indiana, with whom he is set to campaign on Tuesday.

Entirely absent are virtually all of the Republicans who were seen, as recently as a few months ago, as the bright stars of the party: Young officeholders who by virtue of their background or political biography, or the states they represented, seemed primed to expand the party’s electoral horizons.

By dismissing much of the party’s next-generation talent — people who would probably have been on the vice-presidential short list for a different nominee, like Jeb Bush — Mr. Trump has reaffirmed his determination to go his own way, ignoring the conventional impulses of the Republican establishment.

It is a mark, too, of Mr. Trump’s extraordinary isolation within the party, even as he is poised to claim its nomination, that there is no clamor among its most popular and diverse young officeholders to enlist one of their own in the race against Hillary Clinton, the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee.

Tim Pawlenty, a former Minnesota governor, said Mr. Trump’s short list was notable for the absence of virtually all of the people regarded in Washington as the Republican Party’s most electable figures.

[...]

Mr. Trump has declined to consider a group of up-and-coming Hispanic Republicans, including Govs. Brian Sandoval of Nevada and Susana Martinez of New Mexico, as well as Senator Marco Rubio of Florida. People close to all three, on the condition of anonymity, confirmed that they are not being vetted for vice president.

[...]

Mr. Trump has also overlooked prominent Republican women, including Senator Kelly Ayotte of New Hampshire, a foreign policy hawk who is well regarded by national party leaders. Neither she nor Ms. Haley is being vetted.

[...]

Mr. Trump has mainly considered people who can be made to fit his political mold, like Mr. Gingrich and Gov. Chris Christie of New Jersey, who have been publicly solicitous of him, as well as Mr. Pence and Senator Joni Ernst of Iowa, low-key Midwestern conservatives with little demonstrated appeal to Democratic-leaning groups.

[...]

Depending on his ultimate choice, Mr. Trump’s vice-presidential selection may put the lie to what had been an article of faith for many Republicans: that the party’s bench was meaningfully deeper heading into 2016 than at any point in recent memory, with an array of diverse personalities and talents that would help Republicans recover from back-to-back electoral thrashings by President Obama.

The brightest prospects who went up against Mr. Trump in the primaries were soundly defeated. Nearly all of the rest appear to have been sidelined heading into the general election.

Yet there is little sense of chagrin among those excluded from consideration for the vice presidency. Several who would probably have been finalists in another nominee’s vetting process have withheld their support from Mr. Trump, as Ms. Martinez and Mr. Kasich have done; others have given him only grudging or limited support.


For these Republicans, many of whom are popular in their home states and have their own political futures to consider, being asked to join Mr. Trump’s ticket would have forced them to balance the pressures of party loyalty in the near term against the risks of being shackled for many years to the most divisive figure in modern Republican politics.

Already, mainstream Republicans who have aligned themselves with Mr. Trump have suffered by association: Mr. Christie’s dismal poll numbers in New Jersey plunged again after his embrace of Mr. Trump. Senator Bob Corker of Tennessee, an early vice-presidential prospect who recently withdrew from consideration, suffered through multiple embarrassing television interviews in the spring, when he struggled to defend Mr. Trump’s ideas and readiness for the presidency.
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C'mon, why would Trump ever consider a Hispanic vp choice? They all have a conflict of interest.
 
W

whyamihere

Banned
Here are the full 38 seats from the DCCC's Red to Blue program:

2016 Red to Blue Candidates:

AZ-01 – Tom O’Halleran
CA-10 – Michael Eggman
CA-24 – Salud Carbajal
CA-25 – Bryan Caforio
CO-03 – Gail Schwartz
CO-06 – Morgan Carroll
FL-07 – Stephanie Murphy
FL-10 – Val Demings
FL-13 – Charlie Crist
FL-18 – Randall Perkins
FL-26 – Annette Taddeo
IA-01 – Monica Vernon
IA-03 – Jim Mowrer
IL-10 – Brad Schneider
IN-09 – Shelli Yoder
ME-02 – Emily Cain
MI-01 – Lon Johnson
MI-07 – Gretchen Driskell
MN-02 – Angie Craig
MN-03 – Terri Bonoff
MT-AL – Denise Juneau
NH-01 – Carol Shea Porter
NJ-05 – Josh Gottheimer
NV-03 – Jacky Rosen
NV-04 – Ruben Kihuen
NY-01 – Anna Throne-Holst
NY-03 – Tom Suozzi
NY-19 – Zephyr Teachout
NY-21 – Mike Derrick
NY-22 – Kim Myers
NY-23 – John Plumb
NY-24 – Colleen Deacon
PA-08 – Steve Santarsiero
TX-23 – Pete Gallego
UT-04 – Doug Owens
VA-04 – Don McEachin
VA-10 – LuAnn Bennett
WI-08 – Tom Nelson
Click to expand...

And the "Emerging Races" program:

2016 Red to Blue’s Emerging Races:

AK-AL – Steve Lindbeck
AZ-02 – Matt Heinz
CA-21 – Emilio Huerta
CA-49 – Doug Applegate
KS-03 – Jay Sidie
MI-06 – Paul Clements
MI-08 – Suzanna Shkreli
PA-16 – Christina Hartman
SC-05 – Fran Person
VA-05 – Jane Dittmar
Click to expand...
 
P

Paskil

Member
Azzanadra said:
Lol, why High Sparrow? Bernie is the least religious guy who ever ran for president. He comes off as an atheist/agnostic who sidesteps the question after time he religion is asked about because sadly, America won't put a godless man in the oval office.

No godless man may sit the seastone chair- I mean in the Oval Office...
Click to expand...

He would rather bern down entire bills than stain his purity through compromise. The only true word is the word of Bernie.
 
T

TestOfTide

Banned
Azzanadra said:
Lol, why High Sparrow? Bernie is the least religious guy who ever ran for president. He comes off as an atheist/agnostic who sidesteps the question after time he religion is asked about because sadly, America won't put a godless man in the oval office.

No godless man may sit the seastone chair- I mean in the Oval Office...
Click to expand...

It was the chosen comparison for a while because of Bernie's perceived idealism and his more fanatical supporters.

But like I said, the comparison now doesn't work as well because Bernie has endorsed Hillary.
 
W

whyamihere

Banned
Holmes said:
What's the rationale with IN-09 on the Red 2 Blue list?
Click to expand...

Shelli Yoder (IN-09)
The latest public poll in this open seat race showed Democrat Shelli Yoder tied with her carpetbagging
Republican opponent. Moving into the district from out of state to buy a seat in
Congress is not a way to appeal to Hoosiers. Republican Governor Mike Pence has been raked
over the coals for his discriminatory laws that have cost Hoosiers jobs, and with whispers of him
joining Donald Trump’s ticket as VP, any Republican running will be irrevocably tied to Trump’s
toxic policies. Add to this the fact that popular former Senator Evan Bayh will now be on the
Democratic ballot, providing an updraft for Yoder in a district with a high student and suburban
vote, and it is clear there has never been a better time for a Hoosier-born Democrat to win in
November.
Click to expand...

.
 
B

Black Mamba

Member
Glad that this Sanders thing is now behind us and he can go on the stump for Hillary.

BTW, I'm more partial to BernForHer rather than With.



Guys, we're less than a week from the RNC. OMG that is going to be a shitshow.

Is it possible Trump gets a negative bump? What would that be called? A crater?
 
R

RustyNails

Member
TestOfTide said:
It was the chosen comparison for a while because of Bernie's perceived idealism and his more fanatical supporters.

But like I said, the comparison now doesn't work as well because Bernie has endorsed Hillary.
Click to expand...
I still have to watch the last 4 episodes of GoT but why wouldnt High Sparrow want to work with Cersei if it meant moving his agenda forward?
 
E

East Lake

Member
Sorta related. Tax inversion pumping up Ireland's gdp numbers.

Ireland’s Economists Left Speechless by 26% Growth Figure

In three days, Jim Power is due in London to brief the British-Irish Trade Association on the state of the Irish economy. Now, he has no idea what he is going to say.

The economy grew 26 percent in 2015, officials from the Central Statistics Office told a stunned room full of economists and reporters in Dublin on Tuesday. Previously, they had estimated growth of 7.8 percent.

“I’m not going to stand up and say the economy grew by 26 percent,” Power, an independent economist, said after the release. “It’s meaningless -- we would be laughing” if these numbers came out of China, he said.
Click to expand...
 
B

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
East Lake said:
Sorta related. Tax inversion pumping up Ireland's gdp numbers.

Ireland’s Economists Left Speechless by 26% Growth Figure
Click to expand...

In a statement, Finance Minister Michael Noonan pointed out that growth numbers cut Ireland’s debt and deficit ratios. Trouble is, they carry downsides too.

For one, tax inversions artificially inflate the size of Ireland’s economy. When the headquarters of a group of companies becomes resident in Ireland, all of its global profits may be counted as part of the nation’s gross national income, according to the ministry.

Since 2008, that gauge has been boosted by about 7 billion euros thanks to corporate relocations, without accompanying substance or employment, the ministry has said. This in turn drives up the country’s contribution to the European Union budget, which is based on the size of the economy.

For a second thing, it leaves self-described “baffled” analysts like Power at a loss to explain the state of the Irish economy. Power says he’ll look at indicators like employment growth and tax revenue for a better gauge, and guesses Ireland’s underlying economic growth was 5.5 percent last year.

“To me, it looks like Ireland is growing at a reasonable, not dramatic rate,” said Power. “There are so many transactions going on that nobody understands.”
Click to expand...

Kinda left out the important bits after the break there.
 
B

Black Mamba

Member
THIS IS A REAL ARTICLE. NOT ONION.


Bernie Fans Say 'Fart-In' Against Hillary Will Go On
Unswayed by his endorsement, progressives continue to stockpile beans for the Democratic convention.

Advocates for poor people and progressive causes say they still plan to make a stink – literally – during Hillary Clinton’s big night accepting the Democratic presidential nomination this month.

The plan: feed beans to Democratic National Convention delegates for Bernie Sanders, and send them into the Philadelphia convention hall to show what they think of the former secretary of state.

Sanders-supporting organizers of the odious protest also are unswayed by the Vermont senator's Tuesday endorsement of Clinton and will push ahead.

In fact, Cheri Honkala, national coordinator for the Poor People's Economic Human Rights Campaign, expects more beans to pour into her group's downtown Philadelphia office.

Boxes of dry beans and heavy containers of canned beans already have arrived by mail, Honkala says, in all varieties: navy, pinto, lima and baked, with return addresses in Texas, Wisconsin and across the Rust Belt.

“Those beans will probably quadruple” after Sanders' endorsement, Honkala says.

Many Sanders supporters "are not happy" about the two major party candidates, she says. "They do not represent the American people. It’s like they're reality-show characters, two villains who can’t be trusted."

Organizers have not tested varieties to discern the smelliest option, but Honkala says baked beans likely will be preferred and paired with hot dogs at a feeding location in a "Clintonville" camp in northern Philadelphia.

A second feeding location is likely to be at the group's office a few blocks from the convention venue for delegates, journalists and others heading into the speech.
Click to expand...
http://www.usnews.com/news/articles/2016-07-12/bernie-fans-say-fart-in-against-hillary-will-go-on

I...uh...WAT
 
I

itschris

Member
I don't give a shit about Bernie anymore. I gave him $200 when I have NEVER donated to a candidate anymore instead of buying a new ps4 to replace my broken one. And this is what he does?? He stabbed all of his donors in the back. He made us believe that he was different but he is just another corrupted politician now. I'm never voting Democrat again.

Seriously though, I'm glad it's finally over! Bernie exceeded my expectations this time. Now on to the VP picks and conventions.
 
B

Black Mamba

Member
balladofwindfishes said:
W was a sane Republican?

That's not how I remember it.
Click to expand...

Very much so. Cheney was the shitbag and controlled every aspect of foreign policy which was Bush's biggest mistake.

But at no point did I ever believe Bush did things out of malice.

He also expanded the EITC, expanded Medicare, and pushed through bills that expanded spending during tough economic times.

He also pushed the AIDS stuff in Africa.


Don't get me wrong, he was an awful President. But he was awful due to his policies, which he genuinely either thought would work or had other people take advantage of him. His language was NEVER anything near what the GOP is like today. He wanted to be the "uniter in chief" and usually said the right things about minorities and immigrants and importantly Muslims.

Just the rhetoric alone being so different was a big deal. I have always and continue to believe the W Bush wasn't a bad individual, merely one in over his head and taken advantage of by others.
 
E

Emarv

Member
minor effort said:
Is Bernie still planning that separate outdoor rally during the convention, or will that likely be shuttered if he gets an indoor speaking slot?
Click to expand...

For many, I think it was generally believed Bush 43 was largely incompetent and terrible, but not entirely malicious like many of the current crop is.
 
B

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
Box of Kittens said:
The current crop of Republicans is beyond awful, no doubt, but I think people are forgetting just how miserable of a president Bush was.
Click to expand...

Oh he was totally shit, but he does deserve some credit for keeping the GOP in line in terms of Islamophobia during his presidency.

Black Mamba said:
Very much so. Cheney was the shitbag and controlled every aspect of foreign policy which was Bush's biggest mistake.

But at no point did I ever believe Bush did things out of malice.

He also expanded the EITC, expanded Medicare, and pushed through bills that expanded spending during tough economic times.

He also pushed the AIDS stuff in Africa.


Don't get me wrong, he was an awful President. But he was awful due to his policies, which he genuinely either thought would work or had other people take advantage of him. His language was NEVER anything near what the GOP is like today. He wanted to be the "uniter in chief" and usually said the right things about minorities and immigrants and importantly Muslims.

Just the rhetoric alone being so different was a big deal. I have always and continue to believe the W Bush wasn't a bad individual, merely one in over his head and taken advantage of by others.
Click to expand...

Pretty much in agreement. As for the Africa thing, his heart was in the right place but he didn't really go about it all that well. Definitely helped some people there though.

gutter_trash said:
that so awesome!!! Go Ireland!
Click to expand...

Unless this is sarcasm you might want to read the parts he didn't quote. This isn't a good thing that's happening.
 
B

Black Mamba

Member
Bush passed No Child Left Behind. It was a shitty policy but he worked with Ted Kennedy to make that policy.

Imagine President Ted Cruz working on a policy with Elizabeth Warren in 2016.

In terms of "politics," W Bush was very sane. As was his father.

Pretty much in agreement. As for the Africa thing, his heart was in the right place but he didn't really go about it all that well. Definitely helped some people there though.
Click to expand...

This is his whole Presidency. Heart in the right place, head in the wrong place.



Shit, people forget, when Bush was elected the "Bush doctrine" was basically stay out of shit abroad and then 9/11 happened and Cheney took over. Sigh.
 
B

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
Black Mamba said:
Bush passed No Child Left Behind. It was a shitty policy but he worked with Ted Kennedy to make that policy.

Imagine President Ted Cruz working on a policy with Elizabeth Warren in 2016.

In terms of "politics," W Bush was very sane. As was his father.



This is his whole Presidency. Heart in the right place, head in the wrong place.



Shit, people forget, when Bush was elected the "Bush doctrine" was basically stay out of shit abroad and then 9/11 happened and Cheney took over. Sigh.
Click to expand...

He was really shitty on LGBTQ rights though, we shouldn't forget that at all. Otherwise, as per usual, we're pretty much sharing a similar opinion.
 
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